MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1096

ACUS11 KWNS 161922
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161922
OKZ000-TXZ000-162115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1096
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF TX PANHANDLE/FAR NORTH TX AND MUCH OF
OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 161922Z - 162115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE POTENTIAL INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS/BOUTS OF SEVERE
HAIL SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN A CORRIDOR
INCLUDING THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE/FAR NORTH TX AND MUCH OF OK.
ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT/MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE RISK IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH COULD BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...A SMALL-SCALE/RELATIVELY SUBTLE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
APPEARS TO TRANSITIONING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OK/NORTHERN
TX PANHANDLE VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PERSISTENT WEAK ELEVATED
CONVECTION SINCE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TX
PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST OK. TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THIS
ACTIVITY...EARLY DAY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO MODIFY/BECOME
MORE SUBTLE...ALTHOUGH A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS NOTED ACROSS WESTERN OK
COINCIDENT WITH A CORRIDOR OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/MODEST MASS
CONVERGENCE ACROSS WESTERN/PARTS OF CENTRAL OK. ADDITIONALLY...A
DEEPENING CU FIELD IS NOTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK ALONG/JUST WEST OF
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON THE FLANK OF ONGOING ARKLATEX CONVECTION.

AS MAY ALREADY BE TAKING PLACING NEAR THE WATONGA VICINITY
/1900Z/...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION MAY
BECOME INCREASINGLY PREVALENT WITHIN THE MOIST /GENERALLY NEAR 70S F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND ESPECIALLY NEAR RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW. CONTEMPORARY MODIFICATIONS TO THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING
FROM NORMAN...IN CONJUNCTION WITH LATEST SPC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
DATA...SUGGEST THAT NEGLIGIBLE BOUNDARY LAYER INHIBITION NOW EXISTS
IN THE PRESENCE OF 2500 TO PERHAPS 3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE.

THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD IS RELATIVELY WEAK
BENEATH STRONG HIGH-LEVEL WESTERLIES...BUT AROUND 30 KT OF EFFECTIVE
BULK /STRONGEST TIED TO THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE/ WILL ALLOW FOR
SUSTAINED MULTICELLS/PERHAPS SOME TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. AS STORMS MATURE...RELATIVELY MOIST
AIRMASS/POTENTIAL FOR WATER LOADING AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL ALLOW FOR DOWNBURSTS/LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE ASIDE FROM PERIODIC
BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL. WHILE NOT CERTAIN...SOME HIGH-RES NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT A DEGREE OF
CONSOLIDATION/UPSCALE GROWTH COULD EVENTUALLY OCCUR WITH A GENERAL
SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION ACROSS OK/FAR NORTH TX THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

..GUYER/THOMPSON.. 06/16/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 36079863 36809720 36549552 35209539 34629676 33759820
35040059 35770040 36079863

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