Sunday, June 16, 2013

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1097

ACUS11 KWNS 161928
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161928
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-162100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1097
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...WRN KS...EXTREME SWRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 161928Z - 162100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS ERN CO
THIS AFTERNOON INTO WRN KS AND EXTREME SWRN NEB. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...AT 1915Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED CLUSTERS OF
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING EWD OFF THE FRONT RANGE IN CO.
AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY OVER ERN CO INTO WRN KS AND
EXTREME SWRN NEB IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S...DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S...AND STEEP 0-3
KM LAPSE RATES. MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR A CONTINUED EWD
MOVEMENT OF STORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AND GIVEN THE WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER...DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS/OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN AREA OF ENHANCED/AGITATED
CUMULUS FORMING OVER W-CNTRL KS...WHICH MAY SIGNAL ANOTHER AREA OF
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM INITIATION DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD ALSO POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

..GARNER/THOMPSON.. 06/16/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 37750004 37550226 38010401 39330454 40560406 40640172
39679972 37750004

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