DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 191630
SWODY1
SPC AC 191628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT MON AUG 19 2013

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM THE MIDDLE/LOWER MO
VALLEY NNEWD TO NRN ONTARIO...WILL TRACK EWD TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH EARLY TUE. THE 12Z RAOBS THIS MORNING SAMPLED A WARM
EML THAT HAS BEEN ADVECTED FROM THE WRN PLATEAU ACROSS THE CNTRL
CONUS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH. STOUT CAPPING
ACCOMPANYING THIS EML SHOULD KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPARSE
IN COVERAGE DESPITE CONDITIONAL BOUNDARY-LAYER INSTABILITY BECOMING
SIZABLE FROM PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS NEWD TO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY OCCUR FROM SWRN
NEB NEWD TO THE WRN LAKE SUPERIOR VICINITY INVOF A WEAK SFC TROUGH
ATTENDANT TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE A CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR
MARGINALLY SVR WIND/HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...COVERAGE SHOULD BE
TOO LOW FOR ANY SVR PROBABILITIES.

AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING FARTHER SW IN TERRAIN-FAVORED AREAS
OF THE S-CNTRL CO AND NM ROCKIES COULD ORGANIZE INTO LOOSELY
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS GLANCE THE ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS...WITH A MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUST POSSIBLE. WEAK MID-LEVEL
FLOW/DEEP SHEAR WILL INHIBIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...PRECLUDING
SVR PROBABILITIES.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
PACIFIC WATERS OFF THE CNTRL CA COAST. THE SLY FLOW COMPONENT
BETWEEN THIS CYCLONE AND A FOUR-CORNERS AREA ANTICYCLONE WILL
MAINTAIN A STEADY STREAM OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS...PULSE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SWRN STATES TO THE GREAT
BASIN AND PORTIONS OF CA. STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUST OR TWO OVER A BROAD
PART OF THE WRN CONUS...THOUGH ANY SUBSTANTIVE DEEP SHEAR SHOULD
REMAIN OFF THE COAST/AWAY FROM STRONGER BUOYANCY...MITIGATING
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION/SVR POTENTIAL.

TO THE E...HIGH PW WITHIN A MERIDIONALLY EXTENSIVE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL SUPPORT ABUNDANT WATER LOADING WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SERN-CONUS CONVECTION. AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND
GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK
LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING ONLY WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD
LARGELY CURTAIL ANY SVR THREAT AND PRECLUDE THE INCLUSION OF SVR
PROBABILITIES.

..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 08/19/2013

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