DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 191725
SWODY2
SPC AC 191723

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT MON AUG 19 2013

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

BELT OF STRONGER WLYS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY
IS FORECAST TO DROP SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND DECELERATE AS IT
BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. MEANWHILE...THE
UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NWD. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES. AT THE
SFC A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS
VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRECEDED BY A PRE-FRONTAL/LEE
TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND FROM WRN NEB INTO SD.

...NRN PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY...

A BELT OF MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS WARM SECTOR ABOVE
MID-60S DEWPOINTS. STRONG DIABATIC WARMING WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO
AXIS OF 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE FROM SD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. WARM
AIR ALOFT AT BASE OF THE EML WILL LIKELY CAP THE ATMOSPHERE TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MUCH OF THE DAY. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZES A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON...INITIALLY
IN THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN WY AND
WRN SD/NEB AND IN THE BLACK HILLS VICINITY. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP
FARTHER EAST ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AND DURING THE EVENING ALONG THE
SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. THE
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
WITH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE MLCAPE...A FEW
STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING
GUSTS AND HAIL.

...NRN/CNTRL SIERRA NEVADA RANGE....

DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LAPSE RATES DURING THE AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH
MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS POSSIBLY IN THE 40S/ WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AROUND 500 J/KG MLCAPE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL
SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
COULD POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

..DIAL.. 08/19/2013

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