MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1721

ACUS11 KWNS 151909
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151909 COR
GAZ000-FLZ000-152030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1721
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA AND NRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 151909Z - 152030Z

CORRECTED TO CHANGE EARLY THIS EVENING TO THIS AFTERNOON IN SECOND
PARAGRAPH

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS
TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A WW.

DISCUSSION...A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM SRN GA SWWD INTO SERN AL INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.
INSOLATION IN THE WARM SECTOR HAS DESTABILIZED THE VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT MLCAPE HAS BEEN LIMITED TO AOB 1500 J/KG DUE TO
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE MOIST
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH PW AND WEAK CAP HAS PROMOTED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS STORMS ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT...IN THE
WARM SECTOR AND ALONG SW-NE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES EXTENDING INLAND
FROM THE GULF. VWP DATA INDICATE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WITH 15-20 KT
DEEP LAYER WSWLY WINDS IN WARM SECTOR. WHILE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IS MARGINAL...A FEW STORMS MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WING GUSTS SUPPORTED BY WATER
LOADING PROCESSES AND ESPECIALLY WHERE UPDRAFT INTENSITIES ARE
AUGMENTED BRIEFLY BY BOUNDARY/STORM MERGERS.

..DIAL/CARBIN.. 08/15/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 30628162 30378198 30168370 31058351 31548324 31368171
30628162

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