MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1721

ACUS11 KWNS 151855
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151855
GAZ000-FLZ000-152030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1721
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA AND NRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 151855Z - 152030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS
TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A WW.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN GA SWWD INTO SERN AL INTO
THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. INSOLATION IN THE WARM SECTOR HAS DESTABILIZED
THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT MLCAPE HAS BEEN LIMITED TO AOB
1500 J/KG DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THE MOIST THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH PW AND WEAK CAP
HAS PROMOTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS STORMS ALONG THE STATIONARY
FRONT...IN THE WARM SECTOR AND ALONG SW-NE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES
EXTENDING INLAND FROM THE GULF. VWP DATA INDICATE WEAK VERTICAL
SHEAR WITH 15-20 KT DEEP LAYER WSWLY WINDS IN WARM SECTOR. WHILE
OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS MARGINAL...A FEW STORMS
MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WING
GUSTS SUPPORTED BY WATER LOADING PROCESSES AND ESPECIALLY WHERE
UPDRAFT INTENSITIES ARE AUGMENTED BRIEFLY BY BOUNDARY/STORM MERGERS.

..DIAL/CARBIN.. 08/15/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 30628162 30378198 30168370 31058351 31548324 31368171
30628162

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