DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 230711
SWODY3
SPC AC 230709

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 AM CDT MON SEP 23 2013

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD FROM THE MIDWEST/LOWER OH
VALLEY TO THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC BY EARLY THU. ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHOULD UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS IN THE SOUTHEAST. AN AMPLIFIED
LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEST AS A RIDGE
BUILDS FROM THE WRN GULF COAST TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A LEE
CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME ANCHORED OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.

...SRN AL/GA...NRN FL...
OUTSIDE OF THE NAM WHICH DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CROSSING THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND ATTENDANT BELT OF
STRONGER MID-LEVEL WLYS OVER THE WARM SECTOR...OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SETUP GENERALLY APPEARS UNFAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.
MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT
UPDRAFT INTENSITY/SUSTENANCE EVEN AMIDST MODERATE MID-LEVEL WLYS.
ALTHOUGH THE RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IS
NON-NEGLIGIBLE...THIS POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT LOW
SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM.

...NERN WY...SERN MT...WRN DAKOTAS...
CONVERGENCE INVOF A DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE
FRONTS WILL INCREASE WED LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM
DEPICTS DEEPER CYCLOGENESIS THAN THE ECMWF/GFS/UKMET/CMC AND ALSO
HAS A MORE ROBUST QPF SIGNAL ALONG THE FRONT EMANATING NEWD.
HOWEVER...CONSENSUS OF OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
WOULD STILL BE DIGGING THROUGH THIS TIME AS THE MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX
ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. IN EITHER CASE...BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE QUITE LIMITED IN THE WARM SECTOR AND
MAY NOT EVEN BE SUFFICIENT FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS.

..GRAMS.. 09/23/2013

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