Monday, September 23, 2013

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 230830
SWOD48
SPC AC 230829

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 AM CDT MON SEP 23 2013

VALID 261200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
ECMWF/GFS/CMC/UKMET CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE EJECTION OF A
PAIR OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WITHIN THE AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WEST. THE LEAD IMPULSE WOULD CROSS THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES ON D4...WHILE THE SECOND IMPULSE
REACHES THE N-CNTRL CONUS AROUND D6. CONSISTENCY HAS INCREASED WITH
THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IN THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A
SHARP COLD FRONT...APPEARING QUITE ANEMIC FOR THE LEAD IMPULSE AND
COMPARATIVELY RICHER FOR THE LATTER ONE. BUOYANCY APPEARS TOO WEAK
THROUGH D5 AND PREDICTABILITY OF THE LATTER SHORTWAVE TROUGH/COLD
FRONT BY D6 ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANY CONSIDERATION BEYOND LOW
SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..GRAMS.. 09/23/2013

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