DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 201300
SWODY1
SPC AC 201258

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST WED NOV 20 2013

VALID 201300Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PREVAILING ZONAL FLOW OF THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS AS A POSITIVE-TILT SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN GRADUALLY BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEST. IN THE MEAN
TIME...UPR IMPULSE NOW CROSSING THE CNTRL PLNS SHOULD CONTINUE NE
TOWARD THE UPR GRT LKS LATER TODAY AS A SERIES OF MORE
POORLY-DEFINED UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES TRACK ENE FROM THE SRN GRT
BASIN INTO THE SRN/CNTRL PLNS.

MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT LWR LVLS FROM
WRN/SRN TX NNE INTO CNTRL/ERN KS...WRN MO...AND THE WRN OZARKS. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHALLOW POLAR AIR MASS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL SETTLE S
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE PLNS.

...ERN TX PANHANDLE/WRN-CNTRL OK THIS EVE THROUGH EARLY THU...
IN WAKE OF DEPARTING CNTRL PLNS IMPULSE...MID-LVL FLOW WILL BACK TO
SWLY ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLNS TODAY. IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL
CYCLE AND THE APPROACH OF UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES NOW OVER THE GRT
BASIN...LOW-LVL SSWLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TNGT ACROSS THE SRN PLNS
...WITH 850 MB SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KTS FROM W CNTRL TX
INTO CNTRL OK.

ELEVATED CONVECTION/TSTMS SHOULD FORM WITHIN THE LLJ OVER THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE/NW TX THIS EVE...BEFORE SPREADING NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF OK
LATER TNGT/EARLY THU. WITH CAPE IN THE ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER OVER
NW TX AND WRN OK EXPECTED TO REACH 1200 J/KG AMIDST 50 KT WSWLY
CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR...SETUP COULD POSE A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SVR
HAIL...MAINLY AFTER 03Z THU.

..CORFIDI/PETERS.. 11/20/2013

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