DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 200955
SWOD48
SPC AC 200955

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CST WED NOV 20 2013

VALID 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
DAYS 4-6...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH DAY 6 OWING TO A
COUPLE OF INTRUSIONS OF CP AIR ACCOMPANYING EXPANSIVE AREAS OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SEWD THROUGH THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.

DAYS 7-8...THOUGH SOME TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES STILL
EXIST...ECMWF...GFS AND MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE GENERALLY
CONVERGED ON SIMILAR SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE EJECTION OF SWRN U.S.
UPPER LOW THROUGH THE GULF COASTAL STATES. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THIS WAVE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE GULF COAST BY DAY 7. THE
ATTENDANT CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN OF PARTIALLY
MODIFIED GULF AIR INTO THE FL PANHANDLE...SRN GA AND POSSIBLY THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS AS THE LOW REDEVELOPS ALONG THE SERN ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. THE DEGREE OF ANY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS EJECTING WAVE
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO LINGERING QUESTIONS
REGARDING THE QUALITY AND EXTENT OF INLAND MOISTURE RETURN AND
RESULTING INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE CATEGORICAL RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..DIAL.. 11/20/2013

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