ACUS03 KWNS 200832
SWODY3
SPC AC 200830
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CST WED NOV 20 2013
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. CLOSED UPPER LOW
WILL DEVELOP SLOWLY SWD...BECOMING SITUATED NEAR BAJA CA...WHILE A
PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SRN PLAINS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
EVOLVING SWRN U.S. UPPER LOW CIRCULATION. A POLAR FRONT SHOULD
EXTEND FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO CNTRL AND SWRN TX EARLY
FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TX COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD EARLY SATURDAY.
...TX THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY AREA...
A MOIST AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WILL RESIDE
ACROSS SCNTRL AND SRN TX WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE...BUT WITH WEAK
LAPSE RATES. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SWD
ADVANCING FRONT. HOWEVER...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LOW.
...AZ...
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WILL PROMOTE WEAK
INSTABILITY AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE DAY.
FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH ZONE OF UPPER DIVERGENCE EAST OF THE UPPER
LOW CENTER WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SRN CA
INTO PARTS OF AZ. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR
FROM 30-40 KT MAY PROMOTE A THREAT FOR SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE
MAXIMIZED.
..DIAL.. 11/20/2013
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