Monday, December 2, 2013

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 020748
SWODY3
SPC AC 020746

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 AM CST MON DEC 02 2013

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...DISCUSSION...
THE DICHOTOMY BETWEEN NCEP AND NON-NCEP GUIDANCE MENTIONED IN THE D2
OUTLOOK PERSISTS INTO WED REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF A LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS HAS PROFOUND EFFECTS ON SPATIAL/AMPLITUDE
DETAILS OF RESULTANT CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT BETWEEN
THE CORN BELT AND NRN ONTARIO. FOLLOWING WPC PREFERENCE FOR THE
NON-NCEP SIMULATIONS...TSTM RISK SHOULD INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD
FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO ARKLATEX AS THE COLD FRONT IMPINGES ON A
MODIFYING WARM SECTOR.

ALTHOUGH 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD REACH THE MID-SOUTH...MEAN
MIXING RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY ANTECEDENT BELOW-NORMAL PW
VALUES OVER THE GULF/CARIBBEAN. IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD BE MODEST OWING TO THE POSITIVE-TILT NATURE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH. THIS SUGGESTS THAT WARM SECTOR BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN WEAK.
STILL WITH ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...OVERALL SCENARIO MAY SUPPORT
A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK. LATER OUTLOOKS MAY DELINEATE AN AREA ONCE
PREDICTABILITY INCREASES.

..GRAMS.. 12/02/2013

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