DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 150832
SWOD48
SPC AC 150831

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2013

VALID 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE PATTERN WILL BECOME TEMPORARILY ZONAL ON WED/D4 AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS THE NERN U.S. AND AN ERN PACIFIC JET MAX DIVES SEWD
ALONG THE W COAST ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH.

THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT RAPIDLY SWD ON THUR/D5 WITH UPPER
LOW OVER NRN BAJA CA BY FRI MORNING. PRECEDING THIS TROUGH WILL BE
INCREASING SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE OH
VALLEY...WHERE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THUR NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH
VALLEYS.

PREDICTABILITY DWINDLES WITH TIME REGARDING THE MOVEMENT OF THE SWRN
UPPER LOW/TROUGH. THOUGH MID 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR INTO THE SRN PLAINS...ANY SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE MARGINAL IN THE D5-D6 TIME FRAME COURTESY OF A SURGING COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME ALOFT.

GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD EXIST D7-D8 ACROSS THE LOWER TO MID
MS VALLEY AS INDICATED BY SOME ECMWF MEMBERS...BUT PREDICTABILITY
FOR THIS EVENT IS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.

..JEWELL.. 12/15/2013

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.