ACUS01 KWNS 200555
SWODY1
SPC AC 200552
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2014
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE THE PERSISTENT ERN U.S. SYNOPTIC TROUGH
BECOMES RE-AMPLIFIED EVOLVING INTO A DEEP TROUGH. THIS WILL OCCUR
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID
MS VALLEY...REACHING THE TN VALLEY BY LATE IN THE PERIOD /EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING/. A WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY MOVING ESEWD
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE PER SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL UNDERGO FURTHER
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY 21/00Z AND THE
GULF COAST LATER MONDAY NIGHT WITHIN THE BASE OF THE DEEPENING ERN
SYNOPTIC TROUGH.
...LOWER MS VALLEY...
A SURFACE FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE TX PANHANDLE IMPULSE WILL ADVANCE
EWD ACROSS OK AND NRN/CENTRAL TX TODAY...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM
CENTRAL AR SWWD THROUGH THE ARKLATEX TO SOUTH CENTRAL TX BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS MONDAY NIGHT...THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE E/SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST STATES...WITH THE SRN EXTENSION MOVING OFF THE TX COAST INTO
THE NWRN GULF. RELATIVELY WEAK MOISTURE RETURN AND WEAK WAA AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE WIND SHIFT WILL RESULT IN SOME DESTABILIZATION
/MUCAPE UP TO 100 J PER KG/ THAT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN LA/SRN MS MAINLY AFTER
21/03-06Z. WHILE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULE OUT MONDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR EQUILIBRIUM TEMPERATURES
BECOMING COLD ENOUGH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION AND COMBINATION OF WEAK
INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR ASCENT PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A
CATEGORICAL GENERAL TSTM AREA.
..PETERS/GUYER.. 01/20/2014
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