DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 200628
SWODY2
SPC AC 200627

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

BLOCKING SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WRN STATES AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL PERSIST
THIS PERIOD. COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE NRN
PLAINS WILL MOVE SEWD INTO BASE OF THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH...REACHING
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT
FROM THE CAROLINAS SWWD INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY MORNING
WILL CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH THE GULF AND THE FL PENINSULA...EXITING
THE SRN TIP OF FL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

...NC COAST...

BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR. NEVERTHELESS...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE 850-550 MB
LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH VERTICAL MOTION AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ATTENDING THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A SHALLOW
LAYER OF WEAK INSTABILITY WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND IT APPEARS MOST OF THE
CAPE WILL RESIDE IN LAYERS WHERE EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE
AOA -15C. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG COASTAL NC BEFORE MORE NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OFFSHORE AS THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH AXIS OF HIGHER THETA-E OVER THE GULF STREAM.

...CNTRL THROUGH SRN FL...

ONLY PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH 55F TO NEAR 60F DEWPOINTS WILL
ADVECT THROUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR AND INTO THE SRN HALF OF
THE FL PENINSULA. DUE TO EXPECTED WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY MARGINAL AND SHALLOW WITH EL
TEMPERATURES ABOVE -10C. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SWD
MOVING COLD FRONT...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ONSHORE.

..DIAL.. 01/20/2014

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