DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 040604
SWODY1
SPC AC 040600

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CST TUE FEB 04 2014

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LONGWAVE CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY PREVALENT OVER
THE CONUS DURING THE PERIOD. A STRONG POLAR JET STREAK/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD AND REACH THE OH RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT.
ISOLATED/EMBEDDED TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.

...LA/MS/AL...
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS/STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED POLAR JET STREAK/SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WEAK SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF LA/MS AND EVENTUALLY INTO
THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT ANTICYCLONIC/CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES
INLAND WILL BE SLOW TO ABATE DURING THE PERIOD...BUT A DEGREE OF AIR
MASS MODIFICATION/LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUX WILL NONETHELESS OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND WEAK SURFACE WAVE. CLOUD COVER
ASIDE...THE LIMITED MOISTURE QUALITY/WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL
CONSIDERABLY LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...WHICH IN TURN WILL HINDER
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONSEQUENTIAL SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR.

THE MANIFESTATION OF LOWER 60S F COINCIDENT AND WEAK DESTABILIZATION
COULD ACCOUNT FOR A LIMITED NEAR-SURFACE BASED TSTM POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS PARTS OF LA AND SOUTHERN
MS...BUT THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO WILL BE FOR IMMEDIATE
POST-FRONTAL FOCUSED CONVECTION AND CONVECTION ROOTED SLIGHTLY ABOVE
A LINGERING NEAR-SURFACE SEMI-STABLE LAYER. THIS APPEARS CONSISTENT
WITH 00Z-BASED CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS SUCH AS THE
WRF-NSSL...WRF-NMM...AND AFWA WITH A RELATIVE LACK OF MODEL-DEPICTED
UPDRAFT HELICITY OR MEANINGFUL NEAR-SURFACE WIND GUSTS. THAT
SAID...A STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND FIELD COULD NONETHELESS ACCOUNT FOR
SEMI-ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND WEAK/TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS EVEN IN
THE ABSENCE OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY/LIGHTNING. AS
SUCH...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT
BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
LA/SOUTHERN MS TO SOUTHWEST AL.

..GUYER/COHEN.. 02/04/2014

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