DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 040847
SWOD48
SPC AC 040846

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 AM CST TUE FEB 04 2014

VALID 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
NEGLIGIBLE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST D4/FRI
GIVEN A LARGE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE DOMINATING THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS.
THIS WEEKEND...CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS PARTS OF THE S-CNTRL/SERN CONUS.
SPATIOTEMPORAL SPREAD REMAINS MODERATE...BUT GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY
TRENDED WEAKER WITH CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...LIKELY OWING
TO LESS PHASING WITH THE NRN STREAM. A MT AIR MASS NOW APPEARS TO
LARGELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FL PENINSULA. OVERALL SCENARIO IS
SUGGESTIVE OF ONLY A MARGINAL AND SPATIALLY LIMITED SEVERE RISK.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE GULF SHOULD RESULT IN NEGLIGIBLE SEVERE POTENTIAL AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

..GRAMS.. 02/04/2014

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