MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0061

ACUS11 KWNS 040934
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040934
KSZ000-OKZ000-041430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0061
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 AM CST TUE FEB 04 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NW/N CENTRAL OK...S CENTRAL TO NE KS...

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 040934Z - 041430Z

SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES WILL BEGIN INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM NW OK
ACROSS S CENTRAL KS AND SPREAD INTO NE KS...WITH RATES APPROACHING 1
INCH PER HOUR IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS BY 12Z.

DISCUSSION...PW IS INCREASING IN A CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL/E TX INTO
OK...ALONG THE AXIS OF A 30-40 KT SLY LLJ. THIS MOISTURE INCREASE
IS REFLECTED IN A BAND OF LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING FROM
CSM-END. MEANWHILE...THE PRIMARY ZONE OF MIDLEVEL ASCENT/DCVA IS
PROGRESSING NEWD FROM THE TX SOUTH PLAINS TOWARD WRN OK IN ADVANCE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE APPROACH OF THE MIDLEVEL WAVE AND
LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTENING WILL RESULT IN INCREASING PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE/INTENSITY FROM SW TO NE ACROSS WRN/NRN OK THROUGH THE
MORNING. DEEP SUB-FREEZING ISOTHERMAL PROFILES UP TO 700 MB...AND
RELATIVELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL FAVOR SNOW AS THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE MD AREA...WITH SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS BOOSTING SNOWFALL RATES TO NEAR 1 INCH PER HOUR BY 12Z.
FARTHER S-SE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 32 F AND A RESIDUAL WARM
NOSE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WILL FAVOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS FROM SW INTO CENTRAL OK...PRIOR TO A CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW AS THE COLUMN COOLS LATER THIS MORNING /AND PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF THE MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT/.

FARTHER N/NE...INITIAL SNOW BANDS ARE DEVELOPING FROM S CENTRAL INTO
NE KS ALONG THE ZONE OF 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS. PRECIPITATION RATES
SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE NWD
MOISTURE INFLUX FROM OK INTO KS. ALSO...THESE BANDS WILL MOVE ONLY
SLOWLY TO THE N AND SNOWFALL RATES NEAR 1 INCH PER HOUR CAN BE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 12Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.

..THOMPSON.. 02/04/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON 35989718 35789769 35329876 35369912 35769930 36329933
37099962 37439967 37989934 38949772 39399655 39139577
38519545 37839562 36969679 35989718

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