DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141248
SWODY1
SPC AC 141247

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-AIR PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY SPLIT FLOW OVER WRN
CONUS...RELATED TO PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER PORTIONS AZ...SERN CA AND NRN BAJA. WEAK/INTERMITTENT/EMBEDDED
LOW IS PROGGED OVER AZ AT 500 MB BETWEEN NOW AND 00Z...AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY ESEWD. BY 12Z...WEAK 500-MB LOW SHOULD REACH
SERN NM...WITH POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH TRAILING ACROSS FAR W
TX...NRN CHIHUAHUA...AND SONORA. NRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY JUST OFFSHORE PAC NW AND BC
COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL PENETRATE MEAN-RIDGE POSITION TODAY THEN
TURN ESEWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT...REACHING ERN MT AND NRN
WY.

SFC RESPONSE TO NRN-STREAM WAVE WILL INCLUDE LATE-PERIOD PRESSURE
FALLS AND CYCLOGENESIS OVER NRN PLAINS. S OF THAT...PRESSURE/FLOW
PATTERN WILL BE RATHER DIFFUSE...THOUGH SFC PRESSURE FALLS AND WEAK
LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER NERN MEX AND W TX AS SRN-STREAM
PERTURBATION APCHS. INVERTED TROUGH OR WEAK WARM FRONT MAY DEVELOP
TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS NW TX AND SRN OK...AS PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR
BENEATH ELEVATED LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME.

...PORTIONS AZ/NM...TODAY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP PRIMARILY THIS
AFTN...WITH SOME ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO EVENING. LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ALOFT RELATED TO MID-UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
JUXTAPOSED THROUGH MID-LATE AFTN WITH DIURNAL/DIABATIC SFC HEATING
OF HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL YIELD FAVORABLY STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES AMIDST AT LEAST MRGL BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...
CONTRIBUTING TO DEVELOPMENT OF 100-300 J/KG MLCAPE. TSTM THREAT
WILL LINGER INTO EVENING BUT DIMINISH BOTH WITH TIME...AND FROM W-E
IN STEP WITH TRANSLATION OF FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE LIFT.

...SRN PLAINS...AFTER 09Z...
RISK FOR ELEVATED TSTMS -- REPRESENTING VERY EARLY/GENESIS STAGE OF
DAY-2 CONVECTIVE REGIME -- MAY COMMENCE DURING LAST COUPLE HOURS OF
OVERNIGHT/DAY-1 ACROSS RED RIVER REGION OF NW TX AND SW OK BEFORE
SPREADING EWD. SOME CONDITIONAL THUNDER THREAT ALSO IS POSSIBLE
FARTHER NW ACROSS PANHANDLE OR SSWWD OVER PORTIONS W TX...BUT TOO
CONDITIONAL FOR GEN/10% OUTLOOK AREA. RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED
POTENTIAL FOR JUXTAPOSED LIFT/MOISTENING SHOULD OCCUR IN LAYER OF
ELEVATED WAA AND EARLY-STAGE MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ADVECTION...FOCUSED
WITHIN LAYER CENTERED NEAR 850 MB. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ELEVATED
MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG IS POSSIBLE...BUT WITH WEAK FLOW BELOW ABOUT
600 MB RENDERING EFFECTIVE SHEAR TOO WEAK FOR MORE THAN
SEMI-ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. AS SUCH...SVR THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED
ATTM.

..EDWARDS/MOSIER.. 03/14/2014

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