DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 140856
SWOD48
SPC AC 140855

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2014

VALID 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS ON MONDAY MORNING. AT
THE SRN PART OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...THE GFS HAS A CLOSED-OFF
LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE ECMWF HAS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING SWWD ALONG THE TX GULF COAST. BOTH MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS
MOVE THIS SYSTEM EWD ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY/DAY 4
WITH A COUPLING OF THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL JETS TAKING PLACE OVER THE
ERN GULF AND FL PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY
MORNING WITH SQUALL-LINE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. THIS SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AS THE LINE MOVES
ACROSS. AT THIS POINT...UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS SCENARIO IS HIGH DUE TO
THE DIFFERENCE IN TIMING WHEN COMPARING THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
ON TUESDAY/DAY 5...THE MODELS MOVE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE
ATLANTIC WHILE DEVELOPING ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM IN THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS. ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 6...THE ECMWF MOVES THIS FEATURE INTO
THE UPPER MS VALLEY WHILE THE GFS MOVES IT INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. FROM HERE...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE MARKEDLY WITH THE GFS
MUCH FASTER WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR EACH
SOLUTION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES KEEPING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THE CONUS RELATIVELY LOW.

..BROYLES.. 03/14/2014

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