Friday, March 21, 2014

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 210726
SWODY3
SPC AC 210725

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN...WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN MORE NOTABLY DURING
THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS A GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE
UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LATTER DEVELOPMENT...A LARGE...BUT
WEAKENING...COLD SURFACE HIGH CENTER IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE THE FRONT ON THE SHALLOW
LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIR MASS ADVANCES INTO THE WESTERN/NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO...FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WESTERN ATLANTIC.

ABOVE THE SURFACE FRONT...AND AHEAD OF THE DEEPER COOL/DRY SURGE
WHICH MAY NOT REACH MUCH OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS UNTIL
LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
PROBABLY WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NATION...WITH LOW TO NEGLIGIBLE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

...S CNTRL TEXAS...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY REMAIN
STEEP ENOUGH ABOVE THE ELEVATED MOIST LAYER TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST
CAPE SUNDAY. AND THERE IS SUGGESTION THAT FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF A WEAK IMPULSE CROSSING THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY COULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY MORNING. IF THIS OCCURS...SHEAR WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER
PROBABLY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...WITH AT LEAST SOME RISK
FOR SEVERE HAIL.

..KERR.. 03/21/2014

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