DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 210900
SWOD48
SPC AC 210859

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014

VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGHING APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN PROMINENT
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF
NEXT WEEK...WHEN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT AN EMBEDDED
AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS LIKELY TO SUPPORT STRONG SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. AFTER THE CYCLONE FINALLY
MIGRATES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC...MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
U.S. APPEARS LIKELY TO TREND MORE ZONAL...WITH SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS POSSIBLE TO THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES...IN RESPONSE TO ONE OR MORE IMPULSES WITHIN A BRANCH OF
FLOW EMERGING FROM THE MID LATITUDE PACIFIC. IT DOES NOT SEEM OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE NEXT WEEK. THE EXTENT OF THIS POTENTIAL
WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN OFF A STILL
MODIFYING WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. BUT THE PROBABILITY THAT THE MORE SUBSTANTIVE MOISTURE
RETURN WILL COINCIDE WITH THE STRONGER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW. THUS...EVEN WITHOUT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT END
OF THE PERIOD PATTERN PREDICTABILITY ISSUES...THE POTENTIAL FOR A
REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT STILL SEEMS NEGLIGIBLE AT THE PRESENT
TIME.

..KERR.. 03/21/2014

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