DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 250859
SWOD48
SPC AC 250858

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CDT TUE MAR 25 2014

VALID 281200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES
EMERGING FROM THE MID LATITUDE PACIFIC WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ZONAL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
NUMBER OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSES APPEAR LIKELY TO PROGRESS
THROUGH THIS REGIME...LEADING TO PERIODIC CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES. HEADING INTO APRIL...THIS MIGHT NORMALLY SEEM TO
INDICATE A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT THE INLAND ADVECTION OF SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS UNLIKELY AT LEAST THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

THE MOST SUBSTANTIVE MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AS ONE SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
CYCLONE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS IT MIGRATES EAST NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. MODELS DO INDICATE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME. BUT...OVER
INLAND AREAS AT LEAST...THIS IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE WEAK...AND
SIZABLE SPREAD EXISTS CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE. FURTHERMORE... GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT
CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO...PERHAPS AIDED BY IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK TRAVERSING THAT REGION...AND IT REMAINS
UNCLEAR WHAT IMPACT THIS COULD HAVE ON INLAND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

AT THIS POINT...AREAS WITH AT LEAST LOW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITIES MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SUBSTANTIVE REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT CURRENTLY SEEMS LOW.

..KERR.. 03/25/2014

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