MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0206

ACUS11 KWNS 251011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251010
FLZ000-251215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0206
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0510 AM CDT TUE MAR 25 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTH FL/FL KEYS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 251010Z - 251215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK INCLUDING SOME WIND DAMAGE AND/OR
WATERSPOUT/BRIEF TORNADO MAY EXIST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FAR SOUTH FL
COAST AND FL KEYS VICINITY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN COMMON OVERNIGHT IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF FAR SOUTH FL/FL STRAITS IN VICINITY OF A ROUGHLY
WEST-EAST BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHERE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
ESTIMATED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 45-60 KT. IN THE SHORT-TERM...AN
ONGOING SUPERCELL AS OF 10Z/6AM EDT IN FLORIDA BAY MAY CONTINUE TO
GRAZE THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FL PENINSULA WHILE OTHERWISE
APPROACHING PARTS OF THE UPPER KEYS. WHILE THIS SUPERCELL SHOULD
PROGRESSIVELY ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE NEAR-SURFACE INFLOW...A
LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE AND/OR BRIEF WATERSPOUT/TORNADO RISK MAY
EXIST. OTHERWISE...AN EVOLVING UPSTREAM SQUALL LINE /LEADING EDGE
ROUGHLY 70 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST AS OF 10Z/ MAY GRADUALLY APPROACH
THE SOUTH FL KEYS/ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THIS MAY ALSO POSE A LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE RISK.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 03/25/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

LAT...LON 25318111 25358051 25057994 24548099 24348217 24638244
25318111

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.