KGRB [172254]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 172254
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
453 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0453 PM SNOW RHINELANDER 45.63N 89.41W
02/17/2012 M1.2 INCH ONEIDA WI BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

$$

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KEPZ [172123]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEPZ 172123
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
223 PM MST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0222 PM SNOW 4 SE FIERRO 32.81N 108.02W
02/17/2012 M3.5 INCH GRANT NM TRAINED SPOTTER

RAIN SNOW LINE CURRENTLY RUNNING AROUND 5400 FEET IN
THE MIMBRES VALLEY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1200019

$$

HARDIMAN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171947
SWODY1
SPC AC 171945

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

VALID 172000Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TX AND
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TX COAST...

THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK IS TO NUDGE THE SLIGHT RISK NWD ALONG
THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND ACROSS SCNTRL TX. A SEVERE STORM IS ONGOING
NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI AND A SEVERE THREAT COULD CONTINUE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM NEAR VICTORIA SWWD WHERE MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY STEEP. A THREAT FOR HAIL AND
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE OUTLOOK AT 20Z.

..BROYLES.. 02/17/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012/

.. S TX...
BROAD SWATH OF LIGHT/BROKEN SHOWERS ACROSS N TX ATTM DUE TO WEAK
WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN ZONE OF COUPLED UPPER
JETS ASSOCIATED WITH WELL-DEFINED SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER CNTRL U.S.
POST COLD FRONTAL SURFACE-BASED STABLE AIRMASS AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF TX WITH COOL AND MOIST NELY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. EXCEPTION IS DEEP S TX WHERE AIRMASS RECOVERY IS UNDERWAY
AND SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY
AHEAD OF SUBSTANTIAL UPR TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM NRN MEX. EXPECT THE
CHANCE FOR NEAR SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS AREA
LATER TODAY AS UPR FORCING AIDS ASCENT AND INHIBITION IS LOCALLY
OVERCOME. GREATER CHANCE WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO BECOME SOMEWHAT
DECOUPLED AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT FROM S TX INTO THE WRN GULF THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. IN ADDITION
TO SOME ISOLATED WIND AND HAIL THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING...PRIMARILY HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD EVOLVE TONIGHT AS THE UPR
TROUGH SPREADS EAST AND DEEP LEVEL ASCENT ACTS ON INCREASINGLY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER S TX AND ADJACENT GULF.

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KDLH [171925]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 171925
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
125 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0125 PM SNOW HERBSTER 46.83N 91.26W
02/17/2012 M1.8 INCH BAYFIELD WI TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

SGOHDE

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KCRP [171858]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 171858
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1258 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1255 PM HAIL ODEM 27.95N 97.59W
02/17/2012 E0.25 INCH SAN PATRICIO TX NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

LKEYS

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KDLH [171821]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 171821
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1220 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM SNOW 5 NW DULUTH 46.83N 92.19W
02/17/2012 M1.0 INCH ST. LOUIS MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0.7 INCHES SINCE 6AM

&&

$$

SGOHDE

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 171726
SWODY2
SPC AC 171725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE TX COAST...LOWER MS
VALLEY AND CNTRL TO ERN GULF COAST STATES...

...LOWER MS VALLEY/CNTRL AND ERN GULF STATES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SRN AND ERN TX ON
SATURDAY AS A SHARPLY DEFINED COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THE TX COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. A LARGE MASS OF CONVECTION OR A LINEAR MCS SHOULD BE IN
PROGRESS AT 12Z MOVING EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES SATURDAY
EVENING. A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST AS THE MCS MOVES ENEWD
ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SOUTH TX SATURDAY...A
WELL-DEVELOPED 65 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SRN
PLAINS AND OVERSPREAD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS JET PATTERN SHOULD
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SQUALL-LINE JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE
MID-LEVEL JET MAX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z SATURDAY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SQUALL-LINE IN SE LA SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 50 TO 65 KT RANGE AND 0-3 KM
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF 300 TO 400 M2/S2. THIS SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE SQUALL-LINE OR WITH
DISCRETE STORMS THAT DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE WITH A THREAT FOR
TORNADOES. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON NEAR NEW ORLEANS AND IN THE MS DELTA WHERE MODEL FORECASTS
SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAX. THIS SETUP MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO OR TWO. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST AS A 50 TO 65 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES ENEWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE
SQUALL-LINE WILL ALSO LIKELY HAVE A PERSISTENT WIND DAMAGE THREAT
FROM SRN LA LATE SATURDAY MORNING EXTENDING ENEWD TO CNTRL GA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM
SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A NARROW CORRIDOR FOR NUMEROUS
SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE
MAIN UNCERTAINTY CONCERNS INSTABILITY. IF MORE INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED AHEAD OF THE SQUALL-LINE THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS
POSSIBILITY JUSTIFIES A 30 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY ALONG THE
PROJECTED TRACK OF THE LINEAR MCS.

..BROYLES.. 02/17/2012

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KSGX [171717]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 171717
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
916 AM PST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NE THOUSAND PALMS 33.87N 116.32W
02/11/2012 M71 MPH RIVERSIDE CA MESONET

SKY VALLEY MESONET RECORDED A MAX WIND GUST OF 71 MPH
AROUND 100 PM ON 2/11. WINDS GUSTED ABOVE 58 MPH UNTIL
AROUND 400 PM. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER FROM
AROUND 1000 AM TO 1200 PM AND FROM 500 PM TO 600 PM.

&&

$$

JMOKER

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KEPZ [171647]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KEPZ 171647
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
947 AM MST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 3 SW SILVER LAKE 33.00N 105.67W
02/17/2012 M1.1 INCH OTERO NM COCORAHS

ELEV APPX 8200 FT.

0700 AM SNOW 1 ESE CLOUDCROFT 32.95N 105.73W
02/17/2012 M1.5 INCH OTERO NM COCORAHS

ELEV APPX 8800 FT.

0700 AM SNOW SUNSPOT 32.79N 105.82W
02/17/2012 M1.3 INCH OTERO NM COCORAHS

ELEV APPX 9000 FT.

0901 AM SNOW CLOUDCROFT 32.95N 105.74W
02/17/2012 M1.5 INCH OTERO NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0935 AM SNOW 3 SSW MIMBRES 32.81N 108.00W
02/17/2012 E2.0 INCH GRANT NM TRAINED SPOTTER

ELEV APPX 6500 FT.

0937 AM SNOW 6 E SAN LORENZO 32.81N 107.82W
02/17/2012 M3.0 INCH GRANT NM TRAINED SPOTTER

ELEV APPX 6300 FT.

0939 AM SNOW PINOS ALTOS 32.87N 108.22W
02/17/2012 E1.0 INCH GRANT NM TRAINED SPOTTER

ELEV APPX 7200 FT.

0939 AM SNOW 3 SSW MIMBRES 32.82N 108.00W
02/17/2012 M5.0 INCH GRANT NM COCORAHS

ELEV APPX 6500 FT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1200011 EPZ1200012 EPZ1200013 EPZ1200014 EPZ1200015
EPZ1200016 EPZ1200017 EPZ1200018

$$

HARDIMAN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171633
SWODY1
SPC AC 171630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH TX...

.. S TX...
BROAD SWATH OF LIGHT/BROKEN SHOWERS ACROSS N TX ATTM DUE TO WEAK
WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN ZONE OF COUPLED UPPER
JETS ASSOCIATED WITH WELL-DEFINED SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER CNTRL U.S.
POST COLD FRONTAL SURFACE-BASED STABLE AIRMASS AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF TX WITH COOL AND MOIST NELY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. EXCEPTION IS DEEP S TX WHERE AIRMASS RECOVERY IS UNDERWAY
AND SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY
AHEAD OF SUBSTANTIAL UPR TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM NRN MEX. EXPECT THE
CHANCE FOR NEAR SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS AREA
LATER TODAY AS UPR FORCING AIDS ASCENT AND INHIBITION IS LOCALLY
OVERCOME. GREATER CHANCE WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO BECOME SOMEWHAT
DECOUPLED AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT FROM S TX INTO THE WRN GULF THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. IN ADDITION
TO SOME ISOLATED WIND AND HAIL THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING...PRIMARILY HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD EVOLVE TONIGHT AS THE UPR
TROUGH SPREADS EAST AND DEEP LEVEL ASCENT ACTS ON INCREASINGLY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER S TX AND ADJACENT GULF.

..CARBIN/HURLBUT.. 02/17/2012

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KDLH [171626]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 171626
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1026 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1025 AM SNOW HERBSTER 46.83N 91.26W
02/17/2012 M1.5 INCH BAYFIELD WI TRAINED SPOTTER

STILL SNOWING

&&

$$

SGOHDE

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KGRB [171544]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 171544
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
944 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0943 AM SNOW FREMONT 44.26N 88.86W
02/17/2012 E0.5 INCH WAUPACA WI TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

ECKBERG

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KMSO [171520]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 171520
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
819 AM MST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0813 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 S CONDON 47.51N 113.71W
02/17/2012 M3.0 INCH MISSOULA MT TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW STARTED AT 5PM LAST NIGHT. LIGHT AND FLUFFY.

&&

$$

KOLATA

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KPSR [171509]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 171509
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
809 AM MST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 PM SNOW 9 ENE LOST HORSE-KEYS V 33.99N 116.06W
02/15/2012 E8.0 INCH RIVERSIDE CA PARK SERVICE

REPORTED RECEIVED FROM JTNP PARK RANGER OF 8 TO 10
INCHES OF SNOWFALL ABOVE 4000FT OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY.
SNOW COVERED MANY OF THE PARK ROADS AND FELL ALL THE WAY
TO THE LOST HORSE VALELY FLOOR. REPORTED RECEIVED
THURSDAY AFTN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PSR1200016

$$

NOLTE

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KDLH [171504]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 171504
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
904 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM SNOW 8 S BIGFORK 47.63N 93.65W
02/17/2012 M2.0 INCH ITASCA MN CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

SGOHDE

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KOTX [171457]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KOTX 171457
LSROTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
657 AM PST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 PM SNOW Haydon 47.75N 116.78W
02/16/2012 M1.4 INCH KOOTENAI ID CO-OP OBSERVER

1200 AM SNOW Sacheen Lake 48.17N 117.31W
02/17/2012 M0.9 INCH PEND OREILLE WA CO-OP OBSERVER

0650 AM SNOW 5 S NORTHPORT 48.85N 117.77W
02/17/2012 M2.5 INCH STEVENS WA TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW FELL BETWEEN 0900 AND 1500 ON 2/16. CURRENT
CONDITIONS HIGH 26, LOW 18, OBS 20, PCPN 0.20, PRESSURE
30.10, SD 12.5. FOG WITH 1/8 MILE VSBY.

&&

$$

MAT

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KSGX [171439]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 171439
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
639 AM PST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NE THOUSAND PALMS 33.88N 116.33W
02/17/2012 M67 MPH RIVERSIDE CA MESONET

SKY VALLEY MESONET RECORDED A WIND GUST OF 67 MPH AT
APPROXIMATELY 200 AM.

&&

$$

JMOKER

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KDLH [171406]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 171406
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
806 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 5 NW DULUTH 46.83N 92.19W
02/17/2012 M0.5 INCH ST. LOUIS MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS

&&

$$

SGOHDE

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KDLH [171344]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 171344
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
744 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 2 W HIBBING 47.40N 92.99W
02/17/2012 M2.5 INCH ST. LOUIS MN COCORAHS

&&

$$

SGOHDE

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KDLH [171331]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 171331
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
731 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 AM SNOW 12 N GRAND RAPIDS 47.40N 93.52W
02/17/2012 M2.0 INCH ITASCA MN CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

SGOHDE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171232
SWODY1
SPC AC 171230

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0630 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH TX...

...TX...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK
EASTWARD AND INTO TX THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE LOW...SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE DRAWING AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS FROM THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO TX. NORTHWARD RETURN OF SURFACE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTH
TX. HOWEVER...WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL HELP
DESTABILIZE THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL TX BY
EARLY SAT MORNING.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL TX.
HOWEVER...THE IT APPEARS THE BULK OF CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE AFTER DARK AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND LOW
LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
ENHANCE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND LIFT OVER MUCH OF TX. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES
APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY STORM MODE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
IN THE STRONGER CELLS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH TX WHERE SURFACE-BASED
PARCELS ARE MOST LIKELY.

..HART/MOSIER/ROGERS.. 02/17/2012

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 170850
SWOD48
SPC AC 170849

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST DAY 5. CONSENSUS IS THAT A PROGRESSIVE MODERATELY AMPLIFIED
REGIME WILL PERSIST INTO DAY 4 AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF TROUGHS
ADVANCE FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEYS. LEAD TROUGH
WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT EJECTS NEWD THROUGH OH VALLEY AND NERN U.S. DAY
5 IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER IMPULSE DROPPING INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND
SRN PLAINS. WITH A MEAN TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN
HALF OF THE U.S. BY DAY 5...OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT FAVOR A
SIGNIFICANT NWD RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE.

MONDAY...INTRUSION OF CP AIR INTO THE GULF ON SUNDAY WILL MAINTAIN
STABLE CONDITIONS INLAND THROUGH MONDAY.

TUESDAY...PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL BEGIN RETURNING INTO S TX
AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEER
TO SLY IN WAKE OF RETREATING SFC RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE LLJ IS
FORECAST OVER THE TN AND OH VALLEY WITHIN UPPER JET EXIT REGION.
WEAKER LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED FROM TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL QUALITY AND NWD EXTENT OF MOISTURE RETURN
AS WELL AS SIZE OF LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. A FEW STORMS MAY FORM
WITHIN DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION REGIME ALONG THE WRN AND CNTRL GULF
COASTAL AREAS...BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL.

WEDNESDAY...SOME SEVERE THREAT COULD DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF NRN FL IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SRN STREAM IMPULSE...BUT INCREASING MODEL
DIFFERENCES LOWER OVERALL CONFIDENCE.

..DIAL.. 02/17/2012

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 170800
SWODY3
SPC AC 170758

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN FL THROUGH SERN GA AND
ERN SC...

...SYNOPSIS...

PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE CNTRL GULF
COAST STATES EARLY SUNDAY WILL MOVE OFF THE SERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD
BY EVENING. SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER NRN AL SUNDAY MORNING WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT DEVELOPS TOWARD THE MORE STABLE REGIME ACROSS
THE SRN APPALACHIANS...WHILE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES NEAR
COASTAL NC AS UPPER DIVERGENCE ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE COASTAL BOUNDARY. COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD
FROM THE INITIAL LOW WILL ADVANCE THROUGH REMAINDER OF GA...SRN SC
AND FL WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH SC AND INTO SERN NC.

...NRN FL THROUGH COASTAL GA AND SC...

STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ALONG WARM
CONVEYOR BELT FROM PORTIONS OF GA...SC AND NRN FL WHERE A STRONG LLJ
WILL HAVE ADVECTED MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS INLAND. THIS ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS BUT WEAK
INSTABILITY WHICH MAY SERVE AS A POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR FOR A
MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. NEVERTHELESS...WITH STRONG EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AND 50-60 KT FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS STORMS DEVELOP EWD. SOME THREAT
WILL ALSO EXIST FOR STRONG CONVECTION IN WAKE OF INITIAL ACTIVITY
WITHIN DRY SLOT REGION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHERE AT
LEAST MODEST DIABATIC HEATING AND SOMEWHAT GREATER LAPSE RATES MAY
RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...VEERING PRE-FRONTAL WINDS DUE TO SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
ALONG NC COAST MAY TEND TO LIMIT FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. ANY SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID AFTERNOON.

..DIAL.. 02/17/2012

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 170618
SWODY2
SPC AC 170617

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME SERN TX THROUGH
SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...

A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CHARACTERIZE THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN SATURDAY. PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST IS CUTOFF UPPER LOW
LOCATED OVER THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS OF LATE THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS FEATURE WILL ACCELERATE EWD IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE LOCATED FROM CNTRL TX INTO NERN MEXICO EARLY SATURDAY AND
WILL SUBSEQUENTLY ADVANCE INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES SATURDAY
NIGHT. CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE OVER SERN TX SATURDAY MORNING IN
VICINITY OF BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WITHIN DIVERGENT EXIT REGION OF
UPPER JET ROUNDING BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL LIKELY DEEPEN
AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD INTO THE SERN STATES...REACHING AL OR GA LATE IN
THE PERIOD.

...GULF COASTAL STATES...

OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE A RESERVOIR OF UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS OVER
THE CNTRL GULF SOUTH OF A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT. RETREATING HIGH
PRESSURE AND STRENGTHENING LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING CYCLONE
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO INLAND ADVANCE OF THE FRONT INTO SRN PORTIONS
OF THE GULF COAST STATES. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN EARLY
IN THE PERIOD FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHICH COULD
POTENTIALLY LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND SLOW THE NWD
PROGRESS OF THE FRONT. NEVERTHELESS...AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
300-500 J/KG SBCAPE SHOULD DEVELOP INLAND DUE PRIMARILY TO NWD
ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

STORMS MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND
PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BANDS INITIALLY ACROSS SERN TX COASTAL AREA
WHERE WIND FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. ACTIVITY WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP
THROUGH THE GULF COASTAL STATES WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT WHERE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
POTENTIAL FOR NEAR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP
SHEAR AND LARGE HODOGRAPHS ACCOMPANYING THE STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL
PROMOTE A RISK OF LEWP/BOWS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WIND
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITHIN THE EXPECTED
HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT.

..DIAL.. 02/17/2012

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170554
SWODY1
SPC AC 170552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 PM CST THU FEB 16 2012

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS DEEP S TX....

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-AIR PATTERN OVER WRN/CENTRAL CONUS WILL EVOLVE AWAY FROM SPLIT
FLOW THIS PERIOD...AS WELL-DEFINED MID-UPPER CYCLONE NOW OVER NWRN
MEX EJECTS ENEWD. THIS PERTURBATION SHOULD DEAMPLIFY TO STG
OPEN-WAVE TROUGH AROUND 18/00Z-18/06Z TIME FRAME...AS IT MOVES
ACROSS CHIHUAHUA TOWARD SW TX. NRN PORTION OF TROUGH SHOULD CROSS
TX BIG-BEND REGION OVERNIGHT...REACHING NRN COAHUILA/SERRANIAS DEL
BURRO REGION AROUND 18/12Z.

IN RESPONSE...OVERNIGHT/LEE-SIDE SFC CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD OCCUR E OF
MEX MOUNTAINS...WITH DEEPENING LOW CROSSING LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
REGION AND DEEP S TX DURING 18/06Z-18/12Z PERIOD. WARM FRONT --
DENOTING NRN FRINGE OF MARINE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS -- WILL EXTEND
FROM LOW EWD ACROSS DEEP S TX AND NWRN GULF.

...S TX...
LOW-LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD FOSTER RECOVERY OF
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS FROM ANY PRIOR OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION
OVER DEEP S TX. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH SFC DIABATIC HEATING AND 7-8
DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO BOOST AFTERNOON MLCAPE INTO
1500-2500 J/KG RANGE. PRESENCE OF CAPPING INVERSION AT BASE OF
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...COMBINED WITH LACK OF APPARENT BOUNDARY-LAYER
FOCI...MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
STILL...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY FORM THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG WARM FRONT OR ANY OUTFLOWS FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR STG/DAMAGING GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL ATOP WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER. WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIMIT HODOGRAPH
SIZE...UNTIL AFTER DARK WHEN ISALLOBARIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LEE
CYCLOGENESIS RESULTS IN BACKED/STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW NEAR
WARM FRONT.

MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON BOTH SIDES OF WARM FRONT WILL BE
OVERNIGHT...AS STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AND SFC CYCLONE MOVE
ACROSS AREA. PRIMARY THREATS OVER WARM SECTOR WILL BE DAMAGING
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...THOUGH A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OVERALL SVR RISK SHOULD DIMINISH WITH NWD EXTENT N OF SFC LOW AND
WARM FRONT...WHERE EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY
MORE ELEVATED. STILL...STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER WINDS WITH APCH OF
TROUGH ALOFT WILL BOOST EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES...CONTRIBUTING TO
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED ELEVATED CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH MAY
OFFER SVR HAILSTONES AND STG GUSTS.

...MID-UPPER TX AND SWRN LA COASTS...
ATTM...CONSENSUS OF SREF AND OPERATIONAL PROGS INDICATES WARM FRONT
WILL REMAIN BARELY OFFSHORE OF THIS COASTAL STRETCH UNTIL EARLY
DAY-2 PERIOD WHEN LOW PASSES. HOWEVER...EVEN MINOR/MESOBETA SCALE
NWD SHIFT IN LOW TRACK COULD RESULT IN SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE
PARCELS...AND ACCOMPANYING WIND/TORNADO RISK...BRUSHING COASTAL
AREAS DURING LAST FEW HOURS OF PERIOD. FOR NOW...THREAT APPEARS TOO
MRGL FOR CATEGORICAL THRESHOLDS OF UNCONDITIONAL SVR PROBABILITIES.

..EDWARDS/DEAN.. 02/17/2012

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0121

ACUS11 KWNS 170535
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170535
TXZ000-170700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0121
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 PM CST THU FEB 16 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP S TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 170535Z - 170700Z

AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT /DIAMETERS APPROACHING OR LOCALLY EXCEEDING
1 INCH/ ARE POSSIBLE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX /SERN HIDALGO...CAMERON AND
WILLACY COUNTIES/ BETWEEN 06-08Z. A SPATIOTEMPORAL LIMIT AND A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WATCH.

ALTHOUGH DIABATIC COOLING HAS SUPPORTED AN INCREASE IN SURFACE BASED
INHIBITION OVER DEEP S TX...SUSTAINED ELEVATED STORMS TRACKING NEWD
FROM NERN MEXICO ARE LIKELY BEING FED BY GREATER INSTABILITY
RESIDING S OF THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER. MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT ARE SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUED
SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AS ACTIVITY TRACKS NEWD INTO THE U.S.
SIDE OF THE BORDER INCLUDING BRO.

..PETERS.. 02/17/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...

LAT...LON 26119858 26549812 26739696 25959674 25689699 25859764
25959811 26119858

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KMSO [170518]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 170518
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1017 PM MST THU FEB 16 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 PM SNOW 1 NW KALISPELL 48.21N 114.33W
02/16/2012 E2.0 INCH FLATHEAD MT BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

$$

RNL

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KVEF [170344]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KVEF 170344
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
743 PM PST THU FEB 16 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 AM NON-TSTM WND GST SIERRA ROTORS 10 36.77N 118.16W
02/15/2012 M52.00 MPH INYO CA MESONET

SIERRA ROTORS SITE NUMBER 10 MEASURED A PEAK WIND GUST OF
52 MPH AT AN ELEVATION OF 3868 FEET.

0930 AM NON-TSTM WND GST SIERRA ROTORS 15 36.74N 118.12W
02/15/2012 M52.00 MPH INYO CA MESONET

SIERRA ROTORS SITE NUMBER 52 MEASURED A PEAK WIND GUST OF
52 MPH AT AN ELEVATION OF 3727 FEET.

1214 PM SNOW DESERT ROCK AIRPORT 36.62N 116.03W
02/15/2012 E0.0 INCH NYE NV ASOS

A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN WAS REPORTED AT THE DESERT ROCK
AIRPORT AT AN ELEVATION OF 3301 FEET.

0110 PM HAIL 3 WSW BULLHEAD CITY 35.14N 114.62W
02/15/2012 E0.75 INCH CLARK NV TRAINED SPOTTER

A TRAINED SPOTTER IN LAUGHLIN REPORTED 3/4 INCH HAIL THAT
LASTED ABOUT 5 MINUTES.

0130 PM SNOW 1 NW CENTENNIAL HILLS 36.29N 115.28W
02/15/2012 E0.0 INCH CLARK NV PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORT OF SNOW BRIEFLY FALLING IN THE PROVIDENCE
AREA OF NORTHWEST LAS VEGAS AROUND 2600 FEET IN
ELEVATION. NO ACCUMULATION WAS REPORTED.

0300 PM SNOW 4 WNW MT. CHARLESTON 36.30N 115.68W
02/15/2012 M5.0 INCH CLARK NV TRAINED SPOTTER

LAS VEGAS SKI AND SNOWBOARD RESORT MEASURED 5.0 INCHES OF
SNOW AT 9200 FEET FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM.

0330 PM SNOW PIOCHE 37.93N 114.45W
02/15/2012 M2.0 INCH LINCOLN NV LAW ENFORCEMENT

LINCOLN COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTED 2 INCHES OF SNOW FELL IN
PIOCHE AT 5900 FEET ENDING AROUND 330 PM.

0400 PM SNOW 1 SE MOUNTAIN PASS 35.46N 115.53W
02/15/2012 M2.0 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA CO-OP OBSERVER

THE MOUNTAIN PASS CO-OP OBSERVER REPORTED 2.0 INCHES OF
SNOW FELL FROM 11 AM TO 4 PM AT AN ELEVATION OF 4777
FEET.

0430 PM SNOW YUCCA VALLEY 34.11N 116.43W
02/15/2012 E0.0 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA PUBLIC

A PUBLIC REPORT OF A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN IN YUCCA VALLEY
AT AN ELEVATION 3418 FEET.

0430 PM SNOW GOLDFIELD 37.70N 117.23W
02/15/2012 E0.0 INCH ESMERALDA NV LAW ENFORCEMENT

ESMERALDA COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTED A DUSTING OF SNOW IN
GOLDFIELD AROUND 5600 FEET.

0439 PM SNOW KINGMAN 35.21N 114.03W
02/15/2012 E0.0 INCH MOHAVE AZ ASOS

SNOW FELL FOR A FEW BRIEF PERIODS BUT DID NOT ACCUMULATE
IN KINGMAN AT 3400 FEET.

0447 PM SNOW 5 NNE YUCCA VALLEY 34.19N 116.40W
02/15/2012 E0.1 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

A SPOTTER REPORTED A LIGHT COVERING OF SNOW IN YUCCA MESA
AT AN ELEVATION OF 3500 FEET.

0630 PM SNOW 2 SE CEDAR HILLS 35.16N 113.77W
02/15/2012 E0.5 INCH MOHAVE AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

A SPOTTER ESTIMATED A QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH OF SNOW
FELL NEAR CEDAR HILLS AT AN ELEVATION OF 4280 FEET.

0755 PM SNOW COLORADO CITY 36.99N 112.98W
02/15/2012 E0.5 INCH MOHAVE AZ LAW ENFORCEMENT

COLORADO CITY POLICE ESTIMATED A HALF AN INCH OF SNOW HAD
ACCUMULATED AT AN ELEVATION OF 5000 FEET.

0755 PM SNOW PEACH SPRINGS 35.53N 113.43W
02/15/2012 E1.3 INCH MOHAVE AZ LAW ENFORCEMENT

PEACH SPRINGS POLICE ESTIMATED ABOUT AN INCH AND A
QUARTER OF SNOW HAD FALLEN AT AN ELEVATION OF 4950 FEET.

0400 AM HEAVY SNOW 7 N I-40 AT FORT ROCK 35.29N 113.37W
02/16/2012 M7.5 INCH MOHAVE AZ CO-OP OBSERVER

A CO-OP OBSERVER AT DIAMOND M RANCH REPORTED 7.5 INCHES
OF NEW SNOW OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AT AN ELEVATION OF
5492 FEET.

0700 AM SNOW 1 NNE EAGLE VALLEY 38.05N 114.18W
02/16/2012 M4.0 INCH LINCOLN NV CO-OP OBSERVER

THE CO-OP OBSERVER AT SPRING MOUNTAIN STATE PARK REPORTED
4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AT AN ELEVATION
OF 5950 FEET.

0730 AM SNOW 5 SE KINGMAN 35.16N 113.96W
02/16/2012 E0.1 INCH MOHAVE AZ NEWSPAPER

*** 2 INJ *** A DRIVER LOST CONTROL OF AN SUV ON HUALAPAI
MOUNTAIN ROAD ON AN ICY OVERPASS. A 4 YEAR OLD GIRL WAS
EJECTED FROM THE VEHICLE AND WAS INJURED. THE DRIVER ALSO
RECEIVED MINOR INJURIES.

0730 AM SNOW 1 WNW ASPENDELL 37.24N 118.59W
02/16/2012 M5.4 INCH INYO CA CO-OP OBSERVER

THE CO-OP OBSERVER IN ASPENDELL REPORTED 5.4 INCHES OF
NEW SNOW OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AT AN ELEVATION OF 8490
FEET.

0800 AM SNOW PIOCHE 37.93N 114.45W
02/16/2012 M3.0 INCH LINCOLN NV CO-OP OBSERVER

THE CO-OP OBSERVER IN PIOCHE REPORTED 3 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AT AN ELEVATION OF 5990 FEET.

0800 AM SNOW MT. CHARLESTON 36.28N 115.62W
02/16/2012 M4.0 INCH CLARK NV CO-OP OBSERVER

THE CO-OP OBSERVER AT THE NDF STATION ON MT. CHARLESTON
REPORTED 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AT
AN ELEVATION OF 7450 FEET.

1000 AM SNOW 4 WNW MT. CHARLESTON 36.30N 115.68W
02/16/2012 M7.5 INCH CLARK NV TRAINED SPOTTER

LAS VEGAS SKI AND SNOWBOARD RESORT REPORTED A STORM TOTAL
OF 7.5 INCHES AT 9200 FEET FROM THIS EVENT.

&&

$$

STACHELSKI

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KSGX [170236]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 170236
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
635 PM PST THU FEB 16 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM SNOW BIG BEAR CITY 34.27N 116.85W
02/16/2012 M12.0 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

12 INS. AT ONYX SUMMIT AT 8.2KFT.

&&

$$

NISLA

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KSGX [170144]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 170144
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
544 PM PST THU FEB 16 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 AM SNOW PINE VALLEY 32.86N 116.50W
02/16/2012 E4.0 INCH SAN DIEGO CA EMERGENCY MNGR

3-4INS. NR PINE VALLEY. CHP CLOSED THE I8 NR PINE VLY DUE
TO ICY ROADS.

&&

$$

NISLA

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170057
SWODY1
SPC AC 170055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 PM CST THU FEB 16 2012

VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN REMAINS OVER ERN
CONUS...RELATED TO CYCLONE NOW PIVOTING SEWD ACROSS NRN GULF OF CA.
THIS CYCLONE IS FCST TO CONTINUE ITS SLOW CURVING PATH EWD ACROSS
SONORA OVERNIGHT. LOW-AMPLITUDE/SRN-STREAM PERTURBATIONS...POORLY
RESOLVED BY MODELS AND ONLY FAINTLY EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY...WILL MOVE CYCLONICALLY AROUND THIS FEATURE AND ACROSS RIO
GRANDE VALLEY.

AT SFC...23Z ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL
NC...WHICH IS FCST TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE HSE LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW IS DEVELOPING ALONG WARM FRONT THAT
EXTENDS SWD THEN WWD OVER SRN NC AND NERN GA TO COLD FRONTAL
INTERSECTION E OF ATL. COLD FRONT EXTENDED SWWD THROUGH WEAK WAVE
LOW OVER PNS AREA...THEN ACROSS N-CENTRAL/W-CENTRAL GULF.
FRONTOLYSIS APPEARS UNDERWAY OVER WRN GULF...WITH SFC BOUNDARY
REDEVELOPING NWD INVOF LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS
NERN MEX. SHALLOW/LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE THEN EXTENDS NWWD ACROSS
MOUNTAINS OF COAHUILA TOWARD CENTRAL/NRN CHIHUAHUA S OF BIG BEND.
PRECISE LOCATION OF BOUNDARY IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN RUGGED
TERRAIN...OBSERVATIONAL DATA VOID...AND THICK CLOUD COVER ON VIS
IMAGERY TO HIDE LOW-LEVEL FEATURES. FRONT SHOULD REMAIN S OF RIO
GRANDE OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING NWD INTRUSION INTO SW TX
AROUND 850-MB LEVEL.

...DEEP S TX...
MODIFIED 00Z RAOBS FROM BRO/CRP/DRT INDICATE CONVECTION NEARBY IN
MEX MAY BE SFC-BASED...BUT WILL LOSE EFFECTIVE SFC-BASED INFLOW NEAR
OR BEFORE CROSSING RIO GRANDE. GIVEN SHALLOW NATURE OF
FRONT...ISOLATED GUSTS APCHG SVR LIMITS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...HOWEVER THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER DARK AS
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS DIABATICALLY. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE
NOT AS STEEP AS CHARACTERISTIC ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER
PROFILES...MOIST/WARM ADVECTION AND RELATED THETAE INCREASE ABOVE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BOOST ELEVATED MUCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. STG
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING SUBTROPICAL BRANCH OF MID-UPPER
JET WILL SUPPORT 45-55 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN MRGL HAIL RISK AS WELL.

..EDWARDS.. 02/17/2012

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KSGX [162302]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 162302
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
301 PM PST THU FEB 16 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 AM HEAVY SNOW 7 WNW PALM SPRINGS 33.87N 116.66W
02/16/2012 M20.0 INCH RIVERSIDE CA PARK/FOREST SRVC

20 INS. AT LONG VLY RS AT 8.4KFT. 1.98INS. WATER
EQUIVALENT. 24-36INS AT 10KFT.

&&

$$

NISLA

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KSGX [162148]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS56 KSGX 162148
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
147 PM PST THU FEB 16 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM SNOW APPLE VALLEY 34.53N 117.21W
02/15/2012 M0.0 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW LEVEL 3000 FEET

0330 PM HEAVY SNOW CAJON SUMMIT 34.35N 117.45W
02/15/2012 E0.0 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

CHP ESCORTS ON CAJON PASS FROM APPROXIMATELY 2 TO 240 PM.
STILL SNOWING AT THE TOP OF THE PASS.

0430 PM HEAVY SNOW LUCERNE VALLEY 34.44N 116.97W
02/15/2012 M4.0 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION SO FAR

0700 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 E RUNNING SPRINGS 34.21N 117.10W
02/16/2012 M10.0 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

10 INCHES AT ARROWBEAR LAKE AT 6200 FEET ELEVATION.

0700 AM HEAVY SNOW 2 SE BIG BEAR LAKE 34.22N 116.87W
02/16/2012 M14.0 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

14 INCHES OF NEW SNOW AT SNOW SUMMIT RESORT AT 8200 FEET
ELEVATION.

0730 AM SNOW JULIAN 33.07N 116.59W
02/16/2012 E4.0 INCH SAN DIEGO CA BROADCAST MEDIA

4 INCHES OF SNOW ESTIMATED IN JULIAN.

0800 AM SNOW MOUNT LAGUNA 32.87N 116.42W
02/16/2012 M4.0 INCH SAN DIEGO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW MEASURED AT MOUNT LAGUNA
OBSERVATORY.

0800 AM HEAVY SNOW 2 NW IDYLLWILD-PINE COV 33.77N 116.75W
02/16/2012 M14.0 INCH RIVERSIDE CA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

14 INCHES OF SNOW IN PINE COVE ALONG SR-243 AT 6000 FEET
ELEVATION.

0800 AM HEAVY SNOW 5 ENE RUNNING SPRINGS 34.24N 117.03W
02/16/2012 M10.0 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

10 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG SR-18 AT 7200 FEET ELEVATION.

1200 PM NON-TSTM WND GST FREMONT CANYON 33.79N 117.72W
02/16/2012 M73.00 MPH ORANGE CA MESONET

FREMONT CANYON RAWS MEASURED WIND GUSTS OF 73 MPH AT 1200
PM AND 100 PM.

&&

$$

JMOKER

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KJAN [162032]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 162032
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
232 PM CST THU FEB 16 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0810 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 NW MEADVILLE 31.53N 90.96W
02/15/2012 FRANKLIN MS UTILITY COMPANY

POWER LINES WERE BLOWN DOWN IN OLDENBURG.

&&

$$

17

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KJAN [162029]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 162029
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
229 PM CST THU FEB 16 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0810 PM TSTM WND DMG HAMBURG 31.58N 91.07W
02/15/2012 FRANKLIN MS UTILITY COMPANY

POWER LINES WERE BLOWN DOWN IN TOWN.

&&

$$

17

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161942
SWODY1
SPC AC 161940

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 PM CST THU FEB 16 2012

VALID 162000Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

NO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE OUTLOOK AT 20Z.

..BROYLES.. 02/16/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST THU FEB 16 2012/

...NE GULF/SE ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
PROGRESS QUICKLY EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS EVENING.
PRECEDING THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH...A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP
NEWD ALONG A PRE-EXISTING FRONT FROM E CENTRAL GA/SC TO ERN NC BY
THIS EVENING. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F ARE PRESENT S OF
THIS FRONT...BUT POOR LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL TEND TO
LIMIT INLAND DESTABILIZATION AND ANY RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.
FARTHER SW...A BROKEN PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
MOVE ESEWD OVER THE FL PANHANDLE. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING FED BY
WEAKENING WSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE RICHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
NRN GULF OF MEXICO...BUT THESE STORMS WILL SOON PROGRESS OFFSHORE.
A CORRIDOR OF LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS LINGERS BETWEEN THE ONGOING
STORMS AND THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN MS/AL...AND THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON FROM SE
AL INTO SW GA. HOWEVER...WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MODEST
INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT THE RISK FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL
REMAIN MINIMAL.

...S TX THROUGH TONIGHT...
A MIDLEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SEWD TO THE NRN GULF OF CA AND NW MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS LOW...A SURFACE FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE STALLED
ACROSS THE NW GULF AND JUST S OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE...AND A
REINFORCING FRONTAL SURGE IS BEGINNING TO SLOW IN ITS SWD PROGRESS
ACROSS S TX. WEAK SPEED MAXIMA ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT NEWD
FROM MEXICO TO S TX THROUGH TONIGHT...BY WHICH TIME A WAA REGIME
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED.

ONGOING STORMS W OF LRD HAVE SHOWN SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...BUT
THESE INITIAL STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BEFORE CROSSING THE RIVER.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME RISK FOR STRONGER STORMS TO MOVE NEWD
FROM NE MEXICO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THUS HAVE ADDED
LOW HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

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KVEF [161930]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 161930
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1130 AM PST THU FEB 16 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1114 AM SNOW MT. CHARLESTON 36.28N 115.62W
02/16/2012 M4.0 INCH CLARK NV CO-OP OBSERVER

THE CO-OP OBSERVER AT THE NDF STATION ON MT. CHARLESTON
REPORTED 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.

1114 AM SNOW 1 NNE EAGLE VALLEY 38.05N 114.18W
02/16/2012 M4.0 INCH LINCOLN NV CO-OP OBSERVER

THE CO-OP OBSERVER AT SPRING MOUNTAIN STATE PARK REPORTED
4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.

1114 AM SNOW PIOCHE 37.93N 114.45W
02/16/2012 M3.0 INCH LINCOLN NV CO-OP OBSERVER

THE CO-OP OBSERVER IN PIOCHE REPORTED 3 INCHES OF NEW
SNOW OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.

1114 AM SNOW ASPENDELL 37.23N 118.58W
02/16/2012 M5.4 INCH INYO CA CO-OP OBSERVER

THE CO-OP OBSERVER IN ASPENDELL REPORTED 5.4 INCHES OF
NEW SNOW OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.

1114 AM HEAVY SNOW 5 N I-40 AT FORT ROCK 35.26N 113.37W
02/16/2012 M7.5 INCH MOHAVE AZ CO-OP OBSERVER

A CO-OP OBSERVER AT DIAMOND M RANCH REPORTED 7.5 INCHES
OF NEW SNOW OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.

&&

$$

ASG

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KJAN [161738]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 161738
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1138 AM CST THU FEB 16 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0810 PM TSTM WND DMG MEADVILLE 31.47N 90.89W
02/15/2012 FRANKLIN MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL TREES WERE REPORTED DOWN IN THE COUNTY AROUND
MEADVILLE.

&&

$$

17

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KJAN [161733]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 161733
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1132 AM CST THU FEB 16 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM TSTM WND GST NATCHEZ 31.55N 91.39W
02/15/2012 E50 MPH ADAMS MS EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN AROUND TOWN. ONE ON HIGHWAY
61 NORTH AND ANOTHER ON MARTIN LUTHER KING ROAD.

&&

$$

17

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KSGX [161730]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 161730
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PST THU FEB 16 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM NON-TSTM WND GST FREMONT CANYON 33.79N 117.72W
02/16/2012 M68.00 MPH ORANGE CA MESONET

FREMONT CANYON RAWS RECORDED WIND GUSTS OF 68 MPH AT 800
AM AND 900 AM. SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 50 AND 55 MPH AT
THOSE TIMES.

&&

$$

JMOKER

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KJAN [161725]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 161725
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1125 AM CST THU FEB 16 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM TSTM WND DMG NATCHEZ 31.55N 91.39W
02/15/2012 ADAMS MS EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN AROUND NATCHEZ. ONE ON
HIGHWAY 61 NORTH AND ANOTHER ON MARTIN LUTHER KING ROAD.

&&

$$

17

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 161720
SWODY2
SPC AC 161719

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CST THU FEB 16 2012

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTH TX/TX AND LA COASTS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
ON FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH
TX...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAPPED AIRMASS IN PLACE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT VERY ISOLATED
DURING THE DAY. THE CAP SHOULD WEAKEN ENOUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS. EVENTUALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...STORM COVERAGE
SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD DUE TO INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SOUTH TX EARLY FRIDAY EVENING SHOW A MOIST
AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE LOWER 60S F WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1200 TO 2000 J/KG.
THIS ALONG WITH INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A
65 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT
BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT REMAINS CONDITIONAL. STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR HAIL WITH THE MORE
INTENSE CORES. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT PERIOD CONTINUE TO SHOW A WARM LAYER AT 850 MB SUGGESTING
THE CONVECTION MAY HAVE TROUBLE BECOMING SFC-BASED. ALSO...THE
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DURING THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD. THESE
TWO FACTORS SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT ISOLATED. IF THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTH TX FASTER THAN IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THEN AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK COULD BECOME NECESSARY.
THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD ALSO EXTEND NEWD ALONG THE TX AND
LA COASTS MAINLY AFTER 09Z.

..BROYLES.. 02/16/2012

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KSGX [161705]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 161705
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
905 AM PST THU FEB 16 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 E RUNNING SPRINGS 34.21N 117.10W
02/16/2012 M10.0 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

10 INCHES AT ARROWBEAR LAKE AT 6200 FEET ELEVATION.

0700 AM HEAVY SNOW 2 SE BIG BEAR LAKE 34.22N 116.87W
02/16/2012 M14.0 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

14 INCHES OF NEW SNOW AT SNOW SUMMIT RESORT AT 8200 FEET
ELEVATION.

0730 AM SNOW JULIAN 33.07N 116.59W
02/16/2012 E4.0 INCH SAN DIEGO CA BROADCAST MEDIA

4 INCHES OF SNOW ESTIMATED IN JULIAN.

0800 AM HEAVY SNOW 2 NW IDYLLWILD-PINE COV 33.77N 116.75W
02/16/2012 M14.0 INCH RIVERSIDE CA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

14 INCHES OF SNOW IN PINE COVE ALONG SR-243 AT 6000 FEET
ELEVATION.

0800 AM HEAVY SNOW 5 ENE RUNNING SPRINGS 34.24N 117.03W
02/16/2012 M10.0 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

10 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG SR-18 AT 7200 FEET ELEVATION.

&&

$$

JMOKER

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KDLH [161642]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 161642
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1042 AM CST THU FEB 16 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM SNOW ALBORN 46.97N 92.58W
02/16/2012 M0.5 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0637 AM SNOW SILVER BAY 47.29N 91.28W
02/16/2012 M0.5 INCH LAKE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

RS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161629
SWODY1
SPC AC 161627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CST THU FEB 16 2012

VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NE GULF/SE ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
PROGRESS QUICKLY EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS EVENING.
PRECEDING THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH...A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP
NEWD ALONG A PRE-EXISTING FRONT FROM E CENTRAL GA/SC TO ERN NC BY
THIS EVENING. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F ARE PRESENT S OF
THIS FRONT...BUT POOR LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL TEND TO
LIMIT INLAND DESTABILIZATION AND ANY RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.
FARTHER SW...A BROKEN PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
MOVE ESEWD OVER THE FL PANHANDLE. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING FED BY
WEAKENING WSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE RICHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
NRN GULF OF MEXICO...BUT THESE STORMS WILL SOON PROGRESS OFFSHORE.
A CORRIDOR OF LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS LINGERS BETWEEN THE ONGOING
STORMS AND THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN MS/AL...AND THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON FROM SE
AL INTO SW GA. HOWEVER...WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MODEST
INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT THE RISK FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL
REMAIN MINIMAL.

...S TX THROUGH TONIGHT...
A MIDLEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SEWD TO THE NRN GULF OF CA AND NW MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS LOW...A SURFACE FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE STALLED
ACROSS THE NW GULF AND JUST S OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE...AND A
REINFORCING FRONTAL SURGE IS BEGINNING TO SLOW IN ITS SWD PROGRESS
ACROSS S TX. WEAK SPEED MAXIMA ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT NEWD
FROM MEXICO TO S TX THROUGH TONIGHT...BY WHICH TIME A WAA REGIME
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED.

ONGOING STORMS W OF LRD HAVE SHOWN SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...BUT
THESE INITIAL STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BEFORE CROSSING THE RIVER.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME RISK FOR STRONGER STORMS TO MOVE NEWD
FROM NE MEXICO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THUS HAVE ADDED
LOW HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

..THOMPSON/GARNER.. 02/16/2012

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KABQ [161607]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KABQ 161607
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
907 AM MST THU FEB 16 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0358 PM SNOW 3 W THOREAU 35.41N 108.28W
02/14/2012 E2.0 INCH MCKINLEY NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0400 PM SNOW CHAMA 36.89N 106.58W
02/14/2012 M1.7 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0400 PM SNOW 2 N CHAMA 36.92N 106.58W
02/14/2012 M2.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0410 PM SNOW FENCE LAKE 34.65N 108.68W
02/14/2012 M1.0 INCH CIBOLA NM PUBLIC

0410 PM SNOW 1 ESE ZUNI PUEBLO 35.07N 108.84W
02/14/2012 E5.5 INCH MCKINLEY NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0500 PM SNOW 8 SSW SAN MIGUEL 36.87N 106.23W
02/14/2012 E1.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM OTHER FEDERAL

SAN ANTONIO SINK SNOTEL.

0500 PM SNOW 5 NW CHAMA 36.95N 106.65W
02/14/2012 E3.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM OTHER FEDERAL

CHAMITA SNOTEL.

0514 PM SNOW RAMAH 35.13N 108.49W
02/14/2012 M2.5 INCH MCKINLEY NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0854 PM SNOW TAOS 36.39N 105.58W
02/14/2012 E3.0 INCH TAOS NM PUBLIC

0900 PM SNOW 11 WSW BLUEWATER LAKE 35.23N 108.26W
02/14/2012 E8.0 INCH CIBOLA NM OTHER FEDERAL

RICE PARK SNOTEL.

1100 PM SNOW 11 NNW CANON PLAZA 36.70N 106.25W
02/14/2012 E2.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM OTHER FEDERAL

HOPEWELL SNOTEL.

1218 AM SNOW 3 NNE SEDILLO 35.14N 106.28W
02/15/2012 E4.5 INCH BERNALILLO NM TRAINED SPOTTER

1245 AM SNOW 2 SSE ALBUQUERQUE 35.09N 106.61W
02/15/2012 M1.5 INCH BERNALILLO NM NWS EMPLOYEE

CONSTITUTION AND GIRARD.

0200 AM SNOW 5 S ALBUQUERQUE 35.04N 106.62W
02/15/2012 M2.2 INCH BERNALILLO NM ASOS

KABQ ASOS.

0349 AM SNOW 8 ENE ALBUQUERQUE 35.16N 106.50W
02/15/2012 M7.0 INCH BERNALILLO NM NWS EMPLOYEE

SPAIN AND TRAMWAY.

0437 AM SNOW 3 ESE ANGEL FIRE 36.38N 105.24W
02/15/2012 E4.0 INCH COLFAX NM PUBLIC

ANGEL FIRE SKI AREA.

0500 AM SNOW SEDILLO 35.10N 106.29W
02/15/2012 M9.2 INCH BERNALILLO NM NWS EMPLOYEE

0500 AM SNOW REGINA 36.18N 106.96W
02/15/2012 E4.0 INCH SANDOVAL NM PUBLIC

0500 AM SNOW 20 NE CUBA 36.23N 106.70W
02/15/2012 E5.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0500 AM SNOW 7 E SANTA CRUZ 36.00N 105.93W
02/15/2012 M1.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0523 AM SNOW QUESTA 36.71N 105.59W
02/15/2012 E3.0 INCH TAOS NM PUBLIC

0529 AM SNOW 7 ESE CHUPADERO 35.79N 105.80W
02/15/2012 E5.0 INCH SANTA FE NM PUBLIC

SKI SANTA FE.

0554 AM SNOW 5 E EL MORRO 35.05N 108.24W
02/15/2012 M4.0 INCH CIBOLA NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0559 AM SNOW 8 SSW RED RIVER 36.59N 105.45W
02/15/2012 E6.0 INCH TAOS NM PUBLIC

TAOS SKI AREA.

0605 AM SNOW 8 WNW MORIARTY 35.04N 106.17W
02/15/2012 M4.0 INCH TORRANCE NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0612 AM SNOW 4 NW SANDIA PARK 35.21N 106.41W
02/15/2012 E10.0 INCH BERNALILLO NM PUBLIC

SANDIA SKI AREA.

0616 AM SNOW 3 E RED RIVER 36.70N 105.35W
02/15/2012 E3.0 INCH COLFAX NM PUBLIC

ENCHANTED FORECAST SKI AREA.

0630 AM SNOW 6 SSE SANTA FE 35.60N 105.93W
02/15/2012 M1.4 INCH SANTA FE NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0636 AM SNOW 3 NW TRES RITOS 36.16N 105.55W
02/15/2012 E10.0 INCH TAOS NM PUBLIC

SIPAPU SKI AREA.

0654 AM SNOW RED RIVER 36.71N 105.42W
02/15/2012 E4.0 INCH TAOS NM PUBLIC

RED RIVER SKI AREA.

0700 AM SNOW 1 W LINDRITH 36.30N 107.05W
02/15/2012 E3.5 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW 4 NW SANDIA PARK 35.21N 106.41W
02/15/2012 E10.0 INCH BERNALILLO NM PUBLIC

SANDIA SKI AREA.

0700 AM SNOW 5 SW BONITO LAKE 33.40N 105.78W
02/15/2012 E7.0 INCH LINCOLN NM OTHER FEDERAL

SIERRA BLANCA SNOTEL.

0700 AM SNOW 6 WNW TERERRO 35.76N 105.78W
02/15/2012 E8.0 INCH SANTA FE NM OTHER FEDERAL

SANTA FE SNOTEL.

0700 AM SNOW 8 NNW GLORIETA 35.70N 105.80W
02/15/2012 E5.0 INCH SANTA FE NM OTHER FEDERAL

ELK CABIN SNOTEL.

0700 AM SNOW 8 SW ROCIADA 35.76N 105.53W
02/15/2012 E6.0 INCH SAN MIGUEL NM OTHER FEDERAL

WESNER SPRINGS SNOTEL.

0700 AM SNOW TRES RITOS 36.13N 105.52W
02/15/2012 E6.0 INCH TAOS NM OTHER FEDERAL

TRES RITOS SNOTEL.

0700 AM SNOW 4 NNW TRES RITOS 36.18N 105.55W
02/15/2012 E7.0 INCH TAOS NM OTHER FEDERAL

GALLEGOS PEAK SNOTEL.

0700 AM SNOW 9 ENE SHADY BROOK 36.40N 105.32W
02/15/2012 E1.5 INCH COLFAX NM OTHER FEDERAL

PALO SNOTEL.

0700 AM SNOW 8 SE EAGLE NEST 36.46N 105.17W
02/15/2012 E2.0 INCH COLFAX NM OTHER FEDERAL

TOLBY SNOTEL.

0700 AM SNOW 8 NE ARROYO SECO 36.58N 105.45W
02/15/2012 E4.5 INCH TAOS NM OTHER FEDERAL

TAOS POWDERHORN SNOTEL.

0700 AM SNOW 5 ESE RED RIVER 36.68N 105.33W
02/15/2012 E1.0 INCH COLFAX NM OTHER FEDERAL

RED RIVER PASS SNOTEL.

0700 AM SNOW 11 ENE RED RIVER 36.78N 105.23W
02/15/2012 E1.0 INCH TAOS NM OTHER FEDERAL

SHUREE SNOTEL.

0700 AM SNOW 7 E CANJILON 36.50N 106.31W
02/15/2012 E6.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM OTHER FEDERAL

BATEMAN SNOTEL.

0700 AM SNOW 5 WNW LOS ALAMOS 35.91N 106.38W
02/15/2012 E4.0 INCH LOS ALAMOS NM OTHER FEDERAL

QUEMAZON SNOTEL.

0700 AM SNOW 9 E CUBA 36.02N 106.80W
02/15/2012 E5.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM OTHER FEDERAL

VACAS LOCAS SNOTEL.

0700 AM SNOW 7 ESE CUBA 36.00N 106.83W
02/15/2012 E6.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM OTHER FEDERAL

SENORITA DIVIDE SNOTEL.

0700 AM SNOW 5 SSW TOADLENA 36.17N 108.93W
02/15/2012 E1.0 INCH SAN JUAN NM OTHER FEDERAL

NAVAJO WHISKEY CREEK SNOTEL.

0700 AM SNOW 6 SSE LUNA 33.73N 108.93W
02/15/2012 E3.0 INCH CATRON NM OTHER FEDERAL

FRISCO DIVIDE SNOTEL.

0700 AM SNOW 9 NE ALBUQUERQUE 35.21N 106.51W
02/15/2012 M7.0 INCH BERNALILLO NM CO-OP OBSERVER

CEDAR HILL AND TRAMWAY.

0700 AM SNOW 1 WNW RED RIVER 36.71N 105.42W
02/15/2012 M4.0 INCH TAOS NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM SNOW 2 SE MANZANO 34.62N 106.31W
02/15/2012 M1.0 INCH TORRANCE NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM SNOW EAGLE NEST 36.56N 105.26W
02/15/2012 M1.5 INCH COLFAX NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0715 AM SNOW 2 WNW SEDILLO 35.11N 106.33W
02/15/2012 M5.0 INCH BERNALILLO NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0730 AM SNOW 5 ENE ENSENADA 36.74N 106.44W
02/15/2012 M2.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0730 AM SNOW 7 ESE ALBUQUERQUE 35.08N 106.51W
02/15/2012 M2.6 INCH BERNALILLO NM NWS EMPLOYEE

I-40 AND JUAN TABO.

0800 AM SNOW 2 ENE GALLUP 35.53N 108.70W
02/15/2012 M3.0 INCH MCKINLEY NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM SNOW TRUCHAS 36.04N 105.81W
02/15/2012 M3.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM SNOW 12 ENE JEMEZ SPRINGS 35.84N 106.49W
02/15/2012 E5.0 INCH SANDOVAL NM PUBLIC

VALLES CALDERA NORDIC.

0800 AM SNOW 6 WSW BONITO LAKE 33.40N 105.80W
02/15/2012 E4.0 INCH LINCOLN NM PUBLIC

SKI APACHE.

0800 AM SNOW 3 NE STANLEY 35.18N 105.94W
02/15/2012 M3.0 INCH SANTA FE NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM SNOW 4 NE ALBUQUERQUE 35.16N 106.57W
02/15/2012 M2.2 INCH BERNALILLO NM CO-OP OBSERVER

SAN ANTONIO AND LOUISIANA.

0800 AM SNOW 4 NNW TAOS 36.44N 105.60W
02/15/2012 M3.0 INCH TAOS NM NWS EMPLOYEE

0815 AM SNOW 12 SW SAN RAFAEL 34.99N 108.03W
02/15/2012 M2.0 INCH CIBOLA NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0815 AM SNOW 5 E ALBUQUERQUE 35.12N 106.53W
02/15/2012 M3.0 INCH BERNALILLO NM TRAINED SPOTTER

EUBANK AND COMANCHE

0830 AM SNOW 7 E ALBUQUERQUE 35.12N 106.50W
02/15/2012 M7.0 INCH BERNALILLO NM CO-OP OBSERVER

COMANCHE AND TRAMWAY.... COMANCHE AND TRAMWAY.

0900 AM SNOW 2 WSW EL MORRO 35.04N 108.35W
02/15/2012 M3.0 INCH CIBOLA NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0900 AM SNOW 8 E ALBUQUERQUE 35.12N 106.48W
02/15/2012 M7.5 INCH BERNALILLO NM CO-OP OBSERVER

TRAMWAY AND MONTGOMERY.

0900 AM SNOW 5 ESE SUNSHINE VALLEY 36.82N 105.58W
02/15/2012 M3.0 INCH TAOS NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0914 AM SNOW 6 W LOS ALAMOS 35.89N 106.39W
02/15/2012 E6.0 INCH LOS ALAMOS NM PUBLIC

PAJARITO SKI AREA.

0915 AM SNOW 19 N ALCALDE 36.36N 106.06W
02/15/2012 M1.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM COCORAHS

0915 AM SNOW 2 N MILAN 35.21N 107.89W
02/15/2012 M1.0 INCH CIBOLA NM COCORAHS

0915 AM SNOW 8 NW LAS VEGAS 35.69N 105.33W
02/15/2012 M1.0 INCH SAN MIGUEL NM COCORAHS

0915 AM SNOW 5 NW CANONES 36.24N 106.50W
02/15/2012 M3.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM COCORAHS

0915 AM SNOW 2 NE PLACITAS 35.33N 106.40W
02/15/2012 M1.5 INCH SANDOVAL NM COCORAHS

0915 AM SNOW 2 SSW LOS CORDOVAS 36.36N 105.65W
02/15/2012 M1.6 INCH TAOS NM COCORAHS

0915 AM SNOW 4 NNW LAMY 35.53N 105.91W
02/15/2012 M2.1 INCH SANTA FE NM COCORAHS

0915 AM SNOW 13 NW TAOS 36.52N 105.74W
02/15/2012 M2.0 INCH TAOS NM COCORAHS

0915 AM SNOW 4 NNW ISLETA PUEBLO 34.96N 106.72W
02/15/2012 M1.0 INCH BERNALILLO NM COCORAHS

NORMENT AND ARRINGTON.

0915 AM SNOW 8 NNW GALLUP 35.63N 108.79W
02/15/2012 M2.0 INCH MCKINLEY NM COCORAHS

0915 AM SNOW 9 NE AZTEC 36.92N 107.89W
02/15/2012 M1.8 INCH SAN JUAN NM COCORAHS

0915 AM SNOW 2 E ALBUQUERQUE 35.12N 106.59W
02/15/2012 M2.0 INCH BERNALILLO NM COCORAHS

CANDELARIA AND SAN MATEO.

0915 AM SNOW CHAMISAL 36.17N 105.73W
02/15/2012 M2.7 INCH TAOS NM COCORAHS

0915 AM SNOW 2 SSE TAOS 36.36N 105.57W
02/15/2012 M2.7 INCH TAOS NM COCORAHS

0915 AM SNOW 4 E ALBUQUERQUE 35.12N 106.55W
02/15/2012 M2.5 INCH BERNALILLO NM COCORAHS

CANDELARIA AND WYOMING.

0915 AM SNOW 1 SW PLACITAS 35.30N 106.44W
02/15/2012 M2.0 INCH SANDOVAL NM COCORAHS

0915 AM SNOW 8 ESE ALBUQUERQUE 35.07N 106.49W
02/15/2012 M7.4 INCH BERNALILLO NM COCORAHS

LOMAS AND TRAMWAY.

0915 AM SNOW 9 NE ALBUQUERQUE 35.20N 106.52W
02/15/2012 M5.5 INCH BERNALILLO NM COCORAHS

PASEO DEL NORTE AND TRAMWAY.

0915 AM SNOW 1 ESE SEDILLO 35.09N 106.28W
02/15/2012 M9.2 INCH BERNALILLO NM COCORAHS

0915 AM SNOW 8 ENE ALBUQUERQUE 35.16N 106.50W
02/15/2012 M7.0 INCH BERNALILLO NM COCORAHS

SPAIN AND TRAMWAY.

0915 AM SNOW 1 SSW TIJERAS 35.08N 106.38W
02/15/2012 M7.0 INCH BERNALILLO NM COCORAHS

0915 AM SNOW 8 ENE ALBUQUERQUE 35.16N 106.49W
02/15/2012 M7.0 INCH BERNALILLO NM COCORAHS

PASEO DEL NORTE AND TRAMWAY.

0915 AM SNOW 2 W DATIL 34.14N 107.88W
02/15/2012 M1.4 INCH CATRON NM COCORAHS

0931 AM SNOW 5 NE ALBUQUERQUE 35.17N 106.57W
02/15/2012 M3.3 INCH BERNALILLO NM NWS EMPLOYEE

PASEO DEL NORTE AND LOUISIANA

0932 AM SNOW EDGEWOOD 35.06N 106.19W
02/15/2012 M5.5 INCH SANTA FE NM NWS EMPLOYEE

0950 AM SNOW 1 SW CEDAR HILL 36.92N 107.91W
02/15/2012 M2.0 INCH SAN JUAN NM TRAINED SPOTTER

1000 AM SNOW 1 WNW PLACITAS 35.31N 106.44W
02/15/2012 M2.0 INCH SANDOVAL NM TRAINED SPOTTER

1005 AM SNOW 1 WSW PLACITAS 35.30N 106.44W
02/15/2012 M2.0 INCH SANDOVAL NM TRAINED SPOTTER

1044 AM SNOW CLAYTON 36.45N 103.17W
02/15/2012 M3.0 INCH UNION NM OTHER FEDERAL

1142 AM SNOW 8 ESE ALBUQUERQUE 35.08N 106.50W
02/15/2012 M5.0 INCH BERNALILLO NM NWS EMPLOYEE

INDIAN SCHOOL AND TRAMWAY.

0400 PM SNOW 1 N QUEMADO LAKE 34.34N 108.49W
02/15/2012 M1.5 INCH CATRON NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0400 PM SNOW CHAMA 36.89N 106.58W
02/15/2012 M2.5 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1200472 ABQ1200470 ABQ1200471 ABQ1200468 ABQ1200469
ABQ1200466 ABQ1200467 ABQ1200465 ABQ1200464 ABQ1200463 ABQ1200462
ABQ1200461 ABQ1200460 ABQ1200473 ABQ1200459 ABQ1200458 ABQ1200454
ABQ1200455 ABQ1200456 ABQ1200457 ABQ1200453 ABQ1200452 ABQ1200450
ABQ1200449 ABQ1200448 ABQ1200447 ABQ1200446 ABQ1200445 ABQ1200444
ABQ1200443 ABQ1200421 ABQ1200422 ABQ1200423 ABQ1200424 ABQ1200425
ABQ1200426 ABQ1200427 ABQ1200428 ABQ1200429 ABQ1200430 ABQ1200431
ABQ1200432 ABQ1200433 ABQ1200434 ABQ1200435 ABQ1200436 ABQ1200437
ABQ1200438 ABQ1200439 ABQ1200440 ABQ1200441 ABQ1200442 ABQ1200474
ABQ1200420 ABQ1200418 ABQ1200419 ABQ1200411 ABQ1200412 ABQ1200413
ABQ1200414 ABQ1200415 ABQ1200416 ABQ1200417 ABQ1200409 ABQ1200410
ABQ1200408 ABQ1200405 ABQ1200406 ABQ1200407 ABQ1200404 ABQ1200381
ABQ1200382 ABQ1200383 ABQ1200384 ABQ1200385 ABQ1200386 ABQ1200387
ABQ1200388 ABQ1200389 ABQ1200390 ABQ1200391 ABQ1200392 ABQ1200393
ABQ1200394 ABQ1200395 ABQ1200396 ABQ1200397 ABQ1200398 ABQ1200399
ABQ1200400 ABQ1200401 ABQ1200402 ABQ1200403 ABQ1200380 ABQ1200379
ABQ1200378 ABQ1200377 ABQ1200376 ABQ1200375 ABQ1200374 ABQ1200475
ABQ1200476

$$

SHY

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KGJT [161456]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 161456
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
756 AM MST THU FEB 16 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0755 AM SNOW CRAIG 40.52N 107.55W
02/16/2012 E4.0 INCH MOFFAT CO LAW ENFORCEMENT

OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1200129

$$

DC

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KGJT [161455]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 161455
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
754 AM MST THU FEB 16 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0748 AM SNOW CRAIG 40.52N 107.55W
02/16/2012 E4.0 INCH MOFFAT CO PUBLIC

OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1200128

$$

DC

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KLOX [161359]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KLOX 161359
LSRLOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
558 AM PST THU FEB 16 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1157 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 SSW CASTAIC LAKE 34.57N 118.74W
02/15/2012 M70.00 MPH LOS ANGELES CA MESONET

WHITAKER PEAK RAWS AT 4120 FT. 70 MPH GUST

0155 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 N SAN FERNANDO 34.36N 118.42W
02/16/2012 M66.00 MPH LOS ANGELES CA MESONET

CAMP 9 RAWS SITE AT 4000 FT. GUST 66 MPH

0216 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 NNE MOUNT WILSON 34.33N 118.03W
02/16/2012 M60.00 MPH LOS ANGELES CA MESONET

CHILAO RAWS SITE AT 5450 FT. 60 MPH RECORDED

&&

$$

KAPLAN

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KGRR [161259]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 161259
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
759 AM EST THU FEB 16 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0758 AM SNOW BALDWIN 43.90N 85.85W
02/16/2012 M0.8 INCH LAKE MI CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

MKALEMBK

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KGRR [161258]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 161258
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
758 AM EST THU FEB 16 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 AM SNOW PARIS 43.77N 85.50W
02/16/2012 M2.0 INCH MECOSTA MI BROADCAST MEDIA

0630 AM SNOW 9 SW BIG RAPIDS 43.60N 85.61W
02/16/2012 M2.0 INCH NEWAYGO MI BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

$$

MKALEMBK

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161255
SWODY1
SPC AC 161253

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 AM CST THU FEB 16 2012

VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

A SPLIT-FLOW LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED W OF THE MS
RIVER VALLEY...FEATURING A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL PROGRESS
SEWD ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF CA AND INTO NWRN MEXICO BY 17/12Z.
MEANWHILE...A DE-AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH --EMBEDDED WITHIN
CONFLUENT MIDLEVEL FLOW REGIME OVER THE OH VALLEY-- WILL TRANSLATE
EWD TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY TONIGHT. THIS LATTER SYSTEM
WILL BE ATTENDED BY A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CONCURRENTLY ADVANCE
FROM THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND CNTRL GULF COAST STATES TO OFF THE MID-
AND SERN-ATLANTIC COASTS BY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. A WEAK
SURFACE LOW MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ACROSS CNTRL PARTS OF GA/SC TO
OFF THE ERN NC COAST.

...NERN GULF COAST TO THE CAROLINAS...

REMNANTS OF A LONG-LIVED MCS WHICH EVOLVED OVER SERN TX WED
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF AL/GA AND NRN FL
TODAY...DRIVEN LARGELY BY UPLIFT ALONG AN ESTABLISHED COLD
POOL...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE MODEST LOW-LEVEL WAA OBSERVED BY AREA
VADS AND 12Z SOUNDINGS. GPS PW IMAGERY AND 12Z SOUNDING DATA
INDICATE THAT THE MCS HAS ADVANCED E OF THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR MASS
PRESENT OVER THE N-CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO WITH MODIFIED CONTINENTAL
AIR CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA AND S-CNTRL/SERN
GA. AS SUCH...EXPECT REGENERATIVE/BACKBUILDING STORM DEVELOPMENT TO
PERSIST TODAY ACROSS THE FL PNHDL INTO SERN AL/SWRN GA WITH STORMS
DIMINISHING WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS NRN FL/SRN GA. GIVEN THE WEAK
INSTABILITY AND CONTINUED VEERING AND SUBSEQUENT WEAKENING OF THE
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OFF THE NC
COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS GLANCING INFLUENCE OF
ABOVE-MENTIONED MIDLEVEL IMPULSE AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA
INTERACT WITH A MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR MASS PRESENT OVER THE GULF
STREAM. WHILE A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY AFFECT THE OUTER
BANKS...THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.

...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...

THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OBSERVED BY THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING WILL BEGIN
TO RETURN NWD/NWWD DURING THE D1 PERIOD AS THE LOW-LEVEL MASS FIELD
RESPONDS TO HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS NRN MEXICO. CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE STALLING SURFACE FRONT AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN TSTMS TODAY ACROSS DEEP S TX...WITH
ADDITIONAL STORMS FORMING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON. A STRENGTHENING AND BROADENING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME
WILL AID IN THE NWD/NEWD EXPANSION OF TSTMS TONIGHT INTO PARTS OF
SWRN TX...THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY. WHILE SOME SMALL
HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

..MEAD/COHEN.. 02/16/2012

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KHNX [161133]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 161133
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
333 AM PST THU FEB 16 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0126 AM NON-TSTM WND GST INDIAN WELLS CANYON 35.69N 117.89W
02/16/2012 M46.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET

0226 AM NON-TSTM WND GST LAUREL MOUNTAIN 35.48N 117.70W
02/16/2012 M60.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET

&&

$$

SANGER

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KAPX [161129]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 161129
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
629 AM EST THU FEB 16 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0629 AM SNOW LOVELLS 44.81N 84.47W
02/16/2012 E3.0 INCH CRAWFORD MI PUBLIC

12 HR TOTAL THRU 6 AM.

&&

$$

BERGER

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