Saturday, October 13, 2007

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2071

ACUS11 KWNS 140128
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140127
KSZ000-NEZ000-140300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2071
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0827 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...KS...NE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 140127Z - 140300Z

RECENT ISOLATED TSTM INITIATION ALONG/NORTH OF STRONG SW-NE ORIENTED
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM SWRN TO NCNTRL KS IS PROBABLY THE
BEGINNING OF MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THIS
ZONE WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND A SEVERE TSTM WATCH
IS BEING CONSIDERED.

LATEST DDC OBSERVED SOUNDING APPEARS REPRESENTATIVE OF AMBIENT
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT /NAMELY ABOVE 850 MB/ IN WHICH THESE
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.0
C/KM AND MUCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. GIVEN THIS MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN THE RANGE OF 40-50KT...IN CONCERT WITH
INCREASINGLY STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS...NUMEROUS ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING A FEW
SUPERCELLS...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. THE BULK
OF THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE ROOTED ABOVE WEAKLY CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL.
NONETHELESS...ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SUFFICIENT SEVERE STORM
COVERAGE TO WARRANT A WATCH.

.CARBIN.. 10/14/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

39500043 40229847 40109719 39169694 38519737 37320013
37240083 37700154 38690152 39150109

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 140057
SWODY1
SPC AC 140054

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

VALID 140100Z - 141200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS...

..CNTRL PLAINS...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DYNAMIC UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN W WITH LEAD JET STREAK/VORTICITY MAXIMUM LIFTING NEWD
INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...AND MORE POTENT UPSTREAM VORTICITY
MAXIMUM MOVING THROUGH SRN AZ. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THAT THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL
TRANSLATE EWD/SEWD OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS
OVERSPREADING THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...LEE CYCLONE OVER FAR SERN CO/WRN OK PNHDL IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DEVELOP EWD OVERNIGHT WHILE ATTENDANT WARM FRONT REMAINS
QUASI-STATIONARY OR LIFTS SLIGHTLY NWD THROUGH CNTRL/NRN KS. AS
THIS OCCURS...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SURGE SWD THROUGH
THE CNTRL INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS.

RECENT TRENDS IN REGIONAL PROFILER/VWP DATA AND SHORT TERM RUC
DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS INDICATE THAT A SUBSTANTIAL ADJUSTMENT IS
OCCURRING TO THE LOW-LEVEL MASS FIELDS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH. THIS PROCESS IS RESULTING IN WINDS BACKING TO SLY
JUST ABOVE THE PBL...WITH THE STRONGEST WARM AND MOISTURE ADVECTIONS
DEVELOPING WWD WITH TIME ACROSS NRN KS/SRN NEB...TO THE N OF SURFACE
WARM FRONT. THESE DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTIONS COUPLED WITH INCREASED
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
ELEVATED TSTMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS NRN KS/SRN NEB.

00Z DDC OBSERVED SOUNDING APPEARS QUITE REPRESENTATIVE OF AMBIENT
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT /NAMELY ABOVE 850 MB/ IN WHICH THESE
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.0
C/KM AND MUCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. THIS MODERATE INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 40-50 KT SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED...ELEVATED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL.

.MEAD.. 10/14/2007

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KBOU [132251]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBOU 132251
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
451 PM MDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM HAIL 6 E AURORA 39.70N 104.70W
10/13/2007 M0.75 INCH ARAPAHOE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL COVERS THE GROUND

0450 PM HAIL 2 N CASTLE ROCK 39.40N 104.86W
10/13/2007 M0.88 INCH DOUGLAS CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JK

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KBOU [132234]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOU 132234
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
434 PM MDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM HAIL 6 E AURORA 39.70N 104.70W
10/13/2007 M0.75 INCH ARAPAHOE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL COVERS THE GROUND


&&

$$

JK

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KTOP [132153]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KTOP 132153
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
452 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0414 PM HAIL MINNEAPOLIS 39.12N 97.71W
10/12/2007 M1.75 INCH OTTAWA KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

HAIL, UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE, COVERING THE GROUND.

1005 PM HAIL ALTA VISTA 38.86N 96.49W
10/12/2007 E0.88 INCH WABAUNSEE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

0224 AM HAIL 3 S ALMA 38.97N 96.29W
10/13/2007 M1.00 INCH WABAUNSEE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL FOR 5 MINUTES WITH GROUND COVERED

0455 AM HAIL ALMA 39.02N 96.29W
10/13/2007 E1.75 INCH WABAUNSEE KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

0509 AM HAIL PAXICO 39.07N 96.17W
10/13/2007 M1.00 INCH WABAUNSEE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

0515 AM HAIL PAXICO 39.07N 96.17W
10/13/2007 M0.75 INCH WABAUNSEE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

0554 AM HAIL BURLINGAME 38.75N 95.83W
10/13/2007 E1.75 INCH OSAGE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS FALLING IN BURLINGAME.


0619 AM HAIL 3 S HARVEYVILLE 38.75N 95.96W
10/13/2007 E0.88 INCH WABAUNSEE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

2 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL RAIN ALSO REPORTED.

0621 AM HAIL 2 W BURLINGAME 38.75N 95.87W
10/13/2007 E1.00 INCH OSAGE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

0745 AM FLASH FLOOD WILLIAMSTOWN 39.06N 95.33W
10/13/2007 JEFFERSON KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

DELAYED REPORT. APPROXIMATELY ONE AND A HALF FEET OF
WATER OVER HWY 24 AT WILLIAMSTOWN.

0836 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 NE PERRY 39.13N 95.33W
10/13/2007 M4.50 INCH JEFFERSON KS TRAINED SPOTTER

APPROXIMATELY AN INCH OF WATER WAS RUNNING OVER THE
STREET IN FRONT OF SPOTTERS HOUSE.

0935 AM FLASH FLOOD HIAWATHA 39.85N 95.54W
10/13/2007 BROWN KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

4 TO 6 INCHES OF WATER REPORTED TO BE OVER ROADWAYS IN
HIAWATHA.

1200 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 WNW HIAWATHA 39.87N 95.59W
10/13/2007 M3.70 INCH BROWN KS TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL.

1210 PM HEAVY RAIN POWHATTAN 39.76N 95.63W
10/13/2007 M4.10 INCH BROWN KS TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL.


&&

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2070

ACUS11 KWNS 132120
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132120
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-132215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2070
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0420 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SWRN KS...CENTRAL/ERN OK PANHANDLE...THE
NERN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 132120Z - 132215Z

MODERATE CU HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG A SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE
EXTENDING FROM THE NERN TX PANHANDLE NEWD INTO CENTRAL KS. ISOLATED
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY 23Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR SVR
WIND/HAIL.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE CU DEVELOPING ALONG A SFC
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL KS SWWD TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR DDC AND
THEN ALONG A DRYLINE INTO THE CENTRAL/ERN OK PANHANDLE AND NERN TX
PANHANDLE. RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS LESS THAN 50 J/KG OF
MLCINH ALONG BOTH BOUNDARIES. A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED SVR TSTMS INVOF OF THE SFC LOW/BOUNDARY ACROSS
SWRN/CENTRAL KS WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. COVERAGE OF
TSTMS MAY BE MITIGATED AS THE SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND
SWRN/CENTRAL KS BOUNDARY RETREAT WWD OVER THE NEXT FEW IN RESPONSE
TO STRENGTHENING PRESSURE FALLS OVER SERN CO. MORE LIMITED
CONVERGENCE FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD ALSO HINDER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. STRONG MID LEVEL
FLOW /50-60 KTS ON THE TCU PROFILER/ AND MODERATE INSTABILITY /
MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG/ SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
AT LEAST A MARGINAL SVR THREAT WITH THE ANY TSTM THAT MAY DEVELOP.
PRESENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION PRECLUDES A
GREATER PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE.

.CROSBIE.. 10/13/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

38529917 38130001 37520053 37300116 36800173 35920182
35580177 35420186 35200180 35090166 35110144 35380102
35850068 36240029 36769990 37139914 37489910 37869873
38369852

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KKEY [132103]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 132103
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
503 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 AM FUNNEL CLOUD 6 S MARATHON 24.63N 81.08W
10/12/2007 GMZ053 FL PUBLIC

A SNORKEL BOAT CREW MEMBER REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD OVER
HAWK CHANNEL ABOUT 5 MILES SOUTH OF SOMBRERO BEACH.

0935 AM WATER SPOUT 3 SSW GRASSY KEY 24.72N 80.98W
10/12/2007 GMZ053 FL PARK/FOREST SRVC

A CURRY HAMMOCK STATE PARK RANGER REPORTED A WATERSPOUT
OVER HAWK CHANNEL IN THE VICINITY OF LITTLE CRAWL KEY.
MOVEMENT WAS TOWARD THE WEST.

0935 AM WATER SPOUT 2 SE CONCH KEY 24.77N 80.87W
10/12/2007 GMZ053 FL OTHER FEDERAL

A FLORIDA KEYS NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY EMPLOYEE
REPORTED A WATERSPOUT OVER HAWK CHANNEL NEAR MILE MARKER
63.


&&

$$

KASPER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131950
SWODY1
SPC AC 131948

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

VALID 132000Z - 141200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
EWD ACROSS NEB AND NRN KS...

..SYNOPSIS...
WRN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND SWRN STATES. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE
ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM W CENTRAL KS
INTO SERN CO...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD THROUGH CENTRAL KS TO
CENTRAL MO. A SECONDARY WARM FRONT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY
EXTENDED NEWD FROM W CENTRAL KS INTO SERN NEB/SWRN IA.

..FRONT RANGE FROM CO INTO SERN WY AND PART OF NEB PANHANDLE...
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED SOME SURFACE
HEATING COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES HAS RESULTED IN A NARROW
AXIS OF DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. REGIONAL RADARS AND
LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED TSTMS HAD DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA FROM NRN CO
INTO SERN WY. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK...
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CLOUD LAYER SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT STRONGER STORMS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR HAIL. SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DECREASE WITH EWD EXTENT INTO SWRN NEB THIS
AFTERNOON...GIVEN PRESENCE OF A COOLER...MORE STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS
THIS AREA PER EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

..CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY...
ONGOING CLUSTER OF TSTMS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AS LLJ INTO THIS
REGION DECREASES IN STRENGTH. MEANWHILE...WSR-88D VADS/WIND
PROFILERS SHOWED LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS KS/OK HAVE BACKED TO SLY IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. EXIT REGION 50-65 KT SWLY
MID LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. ASCENT FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION WITH THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA/
DESTABILIZATION AS SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING SUGGESTS TSTMS
WILL DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE PRIMARILY N OF THE WARM FRONT
FROM NERN CO INTO NEB AND NRN KS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. WHILE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG N OF WARM
FRONT...THE RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH
STRENGTHENING CLOUD LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO POSE A
THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL.

.PETERS.. 10/13/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2069

ACUS11 KWNS 131923
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131923
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-132100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2069
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN CO...SE WY...WRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 131923Z - 132100Z

A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NRN
CO...SE WY AND WRN NEB. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE SITUATION
APPEARS MARGINAL...WW ISSUANCE REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. A 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET IS EJECTING OUT OF
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS INCREASING ACROSS
THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS ACCORDING TO RUC ANALYSIS. THIS COMBINED WITH
WARMING SFC TEMPS ARE ALLOWING FOR STORM INITIATION IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN NRN CO...SE WY AND ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE NEAR THE
CO-NEB-WY STATE-LINE INTERSECTION. THE SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SHOWN ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED HAIL
THREAT WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS
ESPECIALLY AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED MICROBURST
THREAT.

.BROYLES.. 10/13/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...

40710277 41240223 42050225 42470318 42270441 41770521
41100544 40250518 40260391

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KEAX [131910]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 131910
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
209 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0209 PM HEAVY RAIN EFFINGHAM 39.52N 95.40W
10/13/2007 M3.20 INCH ATCHISON KS CO-OP OBSERVER

3.20 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE EVENT BEGAN OVERNIGHT.


&&

$$

GAMIS

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KMLB [131729]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 131729
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
128 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0105 PM FUNNEL CLOUD SEBASTIAN INLET 27.85N 80.44W
10/13/2007 INDIAN RIVER FL COUNTY OFFICIAL

SEVERAL REPORTS OF WELL DEFINED FUNNEL CLOUD RECEIVED
FROM PARK RANGER AT SEBASTIAN INLET STATE PARK, SHERIFFS
OFFICE AND PUBLIC. FUNNEL EXTENDED CLOSE TO SURFACE BUT
DID NOT TOUCH DOWN. REPORTS FROM 1255 PM TO 105 PM.


&&

$$

MRT

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 131728
SWODY2
SPC AC 131726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SRN PLAINS...

..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE SWRN STATES AT 12Z
SUNDAY WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE PLAINS AS NEXT UPSTREAM PACIFIC TROUGH
DEEPENS AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW BAND OF
SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MO/MID MS
VALLEYS TO STRENGTHEN TO 50-60 KT. IN THE LOW LEVELS...ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM WRN KS ENEWD...BUT WEAKENING
WITH TIME...AS IT SHOULD REACH SWRN IA BY 12Z MONDAY. TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL SPREAD EWD AND IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH AND OVERTAKE THE
DRY LINE ACROSS CENTRAL KS TO NWRN OK DURING THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH A SIMILAR TREND OCCURRING SWD INTO NW TX THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

..PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...
AS THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW/TRAILING COLD FRONT
SPREAD EWD INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE WRN GULF INTO THE SRN
PLAINS. GULF MOISTURE WILL RETURN NWD WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S EXPECTED TO REACH FROM WRN/CENTRAL OK TO CENTRAL KS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
ATOP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL RESULT IN A NARROW AXIS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND E OF THE DRY LINE
WHERE SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE THE STRONGEST.

AT 12Z SUNDAY...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS MAY BE
ONGOING FROM CENTRAL OK INTO ERN KS ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT... WITH
GREATER TSTM COVERAGE FROM DAY 1 LIKELY FARTHER N WITHIN WAA/
ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE N OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS NEB INTO IA.
THE NRN ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITHIN WAA
REGIME...WITH STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY INTO SRN NEB
POSING A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GIVEN PROXIMITY TO GREATER
INSTABILITY.

GIVEN THE POSITIVE TILT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND SOMEWHAT WEAK HEIGHT
FALLS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR AS
THE COLD FRONT MERGES WITH THE DRY LINE IN CENTRAL KS TO WRN OK
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WEAKENING THE CAP. STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS
WILL SUPPORT STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
AN INITIAL BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH A
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT IS ALSO POSSIBLE...GIVEN SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL VEERING/SHEAR
AND LOW LCLS. A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO FORM BY SUNDAY EVENING
AS LLJ VEERS...BECOMING PARALLEL TO FLOW ALOFT.

DESPITE THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING SUNDAY EVENING...THE CONTINUED
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OK/KS MAINTAINING LOW LCLS
COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ SUGGEST AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT COULD PERSIST ACROSS THIS REGION AS THE SQUALL LINE ADVANCES
EWD. EVENTUAL DECREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED LATER
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.

.PETERS.. 10/13/2007

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KEAX [131719]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 131719
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1218 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1216 PM HEAVY RAIN WESTWOOD 39.04N 94.61W
10/13/2007 M3.05 INCH WYANDOTTE KS PUBLIC

2 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE 9 AM, WITH A STORM TOTAL OF 3.05
INCHES.


&&

$$

GAMIS

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KTOP [131717]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 131717
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1216 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1210 PM HEAVY RAIN POWHATTAN 39.76N 95.63W
10/13/2007 M4.10 INCH BROWN KS TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL.


&&

$$

EK

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KTOP [131714]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 131714
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1213 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 WNW HIAWATHA 39.87N 95.59W
10/13/2007 M3.70 INCH BROWN KS TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL.


&&

$$

EK

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KEAX [131643]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 131643
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1143 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1141 AM HEAVY RAIN LENEXA 38.96N 94.79W
10/13/2007 M5.50 INCH JOHNSON KS TRAINED SPOTTER

5.50 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED SINCE THE EVENT BEGAN
OVERNIGHT. INTERSECTION OF 95TH STREET AND INTERSTATE
435.


&&

$$

GAMIS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131602
SWODY1
SPC AC 131559

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1059 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

VALID 131630Z - 141200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

..SYNOPSIS...
GREAT BASIN UPR TROUGH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E INTO CO/NM BY
EARLY SUNDAY AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE PROGRESSES E TO THE MID MS VLY.
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW NOW VICINITY SE CO/SWRN KS BORDER SHOULD REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THRU THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY NNE TO
NEAR HLC BY EARLY SUNDAY.

..CNTRL HI PLNS INTO LWR MO VLY...
AN AXIS OF PERSISTENT LOW LVL WAA WILL EXIST THROUGH THE PERIOD
ACROSS MUCH OF NEB ESE INTO THE LWR MO VLY...N AND NE OF
AFOREMENTIONED CO/KS SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT WHICH LIES ACROSS
CENTRAL KS/MO. ONGOING MCS IN NE KS/NW MO SUPPORTED BY THIS
EFFECTIVE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. THIS SETUP IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NEB THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. WHILE ELEVATED INSTABILITY GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000
J/KG N OF WARM FRONT...THE RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING CLOUD LAYER SHEAR PROFILES EXPECTED TO
POSE A THREAT FOR SVR HAIL.

FARTHER W...ADDITIONAL...MORE NEARLY SFC-BASED STORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTN/EARLY TONIGHT IN NERN CO AND SE WY. EXIT REGION OF
APPROACHING 100 KT UPR LVL JET STREAK...COUPLED WITH NELY
UPSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD FAVOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COOL MID LVL TEMPERATURES
SUGGEST THAT EMBEDDED STORMS COULD ALSO POSE A THREAT FOR SVR
HAIL...ESPECIALLY DURING EARLY STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT.
THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL SPREAD E INTO WRN NEB AND PERHAPS NW KS
OVERNIGHT.

FARTHER S...RATHER LIMITED LOW LVL MOISTURE RETURN...EXISTING 700 MB
WARM PLUME AND RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LVL CONVERGENCE CAST DOUBT ON
LIKELIHOOD FOR SFC-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY ALONG LEE SFC
TROUGH/DRY LINE FROM WRN KS SSW TO THE TX PANHANDLE.
NEVERTHELESS...A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH
HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO WILL EXIST ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. THIS
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE GREATEST INVOF WARM FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION
IN NW/N CNTRL KS...AND SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SWD EXTENT.

.HALES/CROSBIE.. 10/13/2007

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KTOP [131507]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 131507
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1006 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0745 AM FLASH FLOOD WILLIAMSTOWN 39.06N 95.33W
10/13/2007 JEFFERSON KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

DELAYED REPORT. APPROXIMATELY ONE AND A HALF FEET OF
WATER OVER HWY 24 AT WILLIAMSTOWN.


&&

$$

EK

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KTOP [131438]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 131438
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
938 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0935 AM FLASH FLOOD HIAWATHA 39.85N 95.54W
10/13/2007 BROWN KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

4 TO 6 INCHES OF WATER REPORTED TO BE OVER ROADWAYS IN
HIAWATHA.


&&

$$

EK

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KKEY [131424]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 131424
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1023 AM EDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0937 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 S BOOT KEY 24.63N 81.11W
10/13/2007 M39 MPH GMZ053 FL C-MAN STATION

A RAPIDLY-MOVING SHOWER PRODUCED A WIND GUST OF 34 KNOTS
AT THE SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT C-MAN STATION AT 937 AM EDT.


&&

$$

BS

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KTOP [131343]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 131343
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
843 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0836 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 NE PERRY 39.13N 95.33W
10/13/2007 M4.50 INCH JEFFERSON KS TRAINED SPOTTER

APPROXIMATELY AN INCH OF WATER WAS RUNNING OVER THE
STREET IN FRONT OF SPOTTERS HOUSE.


&&

$$

EK

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131256
SWODY1
SPC AC 131253

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

VALID 131300Z - 141200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HI PLNS INTO THE
LWR MO VLY...

..SYNOPSIS...
GRT BASIN UPR LOW/TROUGH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E INTO CO/NW NM BY
EARLY SUNDAY AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE PROGRESSES E TO THE MID MS VLY.
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW NOW ON THE CO/KS BORDER SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY TODAY BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY NNE TO NEAR HLC TONIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY. STRONG SYSTEM NOW CROSSING THE NORTHEAST SHOULD REINFORCE
SFC RIDGE FROM THE OH VLY TO THE ERN GULF CST. THIS...IN TURN...
SHOULD LIMIT BREADTH/DEPTH OF RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLNS.


..CNTRL HI PLNS INTO LWR MO VLY...
AN AXIS OF PERSISTENT LOW LVL WAA WILL EXIST THROUGH THE PERIOD
ACROSS MUCH OF NEB ESE INTO THE LWR MO VLY...N AND NE OF
AFOREMENTIONED CO/KS SFC LOW. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING CURRENT
MCS IN NE KS/NW MO...AND LIKELY WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF
ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NEB THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. DESPITE
RATHER MODEST MOISTURE INFLUX...SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY
/MUCAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J PER KG/ SHOULD EXIST TO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL
UPDRAFTS POSING A THREAT FOR SVR HAIL GIVEN 30-35 KT SW TO WSWLY
CLOUD-LYR SHEAR.

FARTHER W...ADDITIONAL...MORE NEARLY SFC-BASED STORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT IN NRN CO AND SE WY. DEEP SHEAR WILL DECREASE
WITH TIME AS CENTER OF UPR SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND ASCENT IN EXIT
REGION OF ASSOCIATED 100 KT UPR LVL JET STREAK...COUPLED WITH NELY
UPSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD FAVOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. THESE
FACTORS MAY LIMIT CHANCES FOR DISCRETE STORM STRUCTURES. BUT COOL
MID LVL TEMPERATURES SUGGEST THAT EMBEDDED STORMS COULD ALSO POSE A
THREAT FOR SVR HAIL...ESPECIALLY DURING EARLY STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT.
THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL SPREAD E INTO WRN NEB AND PERHAPS NW KS
EARLY SUNDAY.

FARTHER S...RATHER LIMITED LOW LVL MOISTURE RETURN...EXISTING 700 MB
WARM PLUME AND RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LVL CONVERGENCE CAST DOUBT ON
LIKELIHOOD FOR SFC-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY ALONG LEE SFC
TROUGH/DRY LINE FROM WRN KS SSW TO THE TX PANHANDLE.
NEVERTHELESS...A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH
HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO WILL EXIST ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. THIS
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE GREATEST INVOF WARM FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION
IN NW/N CNTRL KS...AND SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SWD EXTENT.

.CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 10/13/2007

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KEAX [131240]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 131240
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
740 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0738 AM HAIL RENO 39.05N 95.12W
10/13/2007 E0.75 INCH LEAVENWORTH KS EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

$$

GAMIS

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KTOP [131138]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 131138
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
637 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0619 AM HAIL 3 S HARVEYVILLE 38.75N 95.96W
10/13/2007 E0.88 INCH WABAUNSEE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

2 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL RAIN ALSO REPORTED.


&&

$$

EK

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KTOP [131124]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 131124
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
624 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0621 AM HAIL 2 W BURLINGAME 38.75N 95.87W
10/13/2007 E1.00 INCH OSAGE KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

EK

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KTOP [131101]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 131101
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
601 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0554 AM HAIL BURLINGAME 38.75N 95.83W
10/13/2007 E1.75 INCH OSAGE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS FALLING IN BURLINGAME.

&&

$$

EK

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KTOP [131023]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 131023
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
522 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 AM HAIL PAXICO 39.07N 96.17W
10/13/2007 M0.75 INCH WABAUNSEE KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

SBLAIR

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KTOP [131018]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 131018
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
517 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0509 AM HAIL PAXICO 39.07N 96.17W
10/13/2007 M1.00 INCH WABAUNSEE KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

SBLAIR

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KTOP [131006]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 131006
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
506 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0455 AM HAIL ALMA 39.02N 96.29W
10/13/2007 E1.75 INCH WABAUNSEE KS LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

WOLTERS

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 130900
SWOD48
SPC AC 130859

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

VALID 161200Z - 211200Z

..DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES APPARENT 24 HOURS AGO CONTINUE THIS
FORECAST. THE CURRENT RUN OF THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING A MID-LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS RUN FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WHILE
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT THAN ITS OWN FORECAST 24 HOURS PRIOR.

MEANWHILE...THE MOST RECENT 00Z RUN FROM THE GFS REVEALS A MID-LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN ENTIRELY DIFFERENT FROM THE RUN 24 HOURS AGO...DESPITE
THE FACT THAT THE RUN 24 HOURS AGO RESEMBLES THE LATEST ECMWF RUN.

OVERALL...THESE DRASTIC VARIATIONS IN MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH TIME
SUGGEST THAT PREDICTABILITY AT THE LARGE SCALE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
THOUGH MODELS DO AGREE IN THE LARGE-SCALE MEAN THAT CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...DETERMINING WHICH DAYS THE SMALLER-SCALE TROUGHS WILL EJECT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS REMAINS DIFFICULT. THUS...WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY SEVERE WEATHER AREAS THIS FORECAST...DESPITE THE FACT THAT
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY OCCUR SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD /INVOF DAYS 5-7...I.E. WED.
OCT. 17-FRI. OCT. 19/.

.GOSS.. 10/13/2007

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KTOP [130728]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 130728
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
228 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0224 AM HAIL 3 S ALMA 38.97N 96.29W
10/13/2007 M1.00 INCH WABAUNSEE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL FOR 5 MINUTES WITH GROUND COVERED


&&

$$

SBLAIR

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 130625
SWODY3
SPC AC 130624

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0124 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MO VALLEY SWD INTO NERN TX...

..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH/LOW INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS IS FORECAST TO LIFT
SLOWLY ENEWD WHILE TAKING ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT WITH TIME. AT THE
SURFACE...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY AND SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..FAR ERN KS/MO SWD INTO NERN TX...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY
EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. WHILE THIS CASTS DOUBT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AREAS OF
MIXED-LAYER CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG BY AFTERNOON SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS SPREADING EWD AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS MO
AND AR...AND PERHAPS SOME STORM RE-INITIATION BACK W CLOSER TO THE
COLD FRONT.

WITH 60 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL JET FORECAST TO PERSIST ATOP THE WARM
SECTOR...SHEAR WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS. AGAIN -- DEGREE OF INSTABILITY MAY
PROVE TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR...BUT THE ANTICIPATED WIND FIELD
SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH
AN ISOLATED TORNADO ASSUMING VIGOROUS UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT.

OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE MS/LOWER
OH VALLEYS AND PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AIDED BY PERSISTENT
LOW-LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS HOWEVER...WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING/STABILIZATION.

.GOSS.. 10/13/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 130601
SWODY1
SPC AC 130559

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND
ADJACENT CNTRL PLAINS...

..SYNOPSIS...
MODERATELY AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE THIS
PERIOD AS STRONG UPPER LOW SWINGS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN NEW ENGLAND
AND LARGER BUT NO LESS INTENSE TROUGH/LOW SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS TO THE CNTRL PLAINS. WRN/CNTRL U.S. SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE
DYNAMIC AS 60-75KT CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID LEVEL WIND MAX EMERGES
OUT ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATE TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY 12H
500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 60-90M. RESULTING SURFACE CYCLONE WILL
CONSOLIDATE ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS THROUGH LATE TODAY AND TRACK ONLY
SLOWLY NEWD TO NWRN KS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN STRENGTHENING
DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW TRANSLATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH...DRYLINE SHOULD MIX EWD/NEWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND
ARC FROM WEST TX TO TX PNHDL THEN BACK NWD/NWWD TO THE LOW NEAR
CO/KS BORDER. WARM FRONT WILL START OUT THE DAY OVER KS WHERE SMALL
MCS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS ERN KS/MO. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AND
IN RESPONSE TO MASS ADJUSTMENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SUBSEQUENT LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS...FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT NWD
THROUGH THE PERIOD TO A POSITION NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER BY TONIGHT.

..SRN HIGH PLAINS TO CNTRL PLAINS...
RELATIVELY UNPERTURBED MOIST AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY 8-12C DEWPOINT
PLUME AT 850MB AND NEAR 60F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE SITUATED
ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. DIURNAL HEATING AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST DESTABILIZATION IN A CORRIDOR
FROM WEST TX TO WRN KS WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG POSSIBLE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. DESPITE MIXING ALONG THE DRYLINE AND INCREASING
LARGE SCALE LIFT/QG-FORCING WITH APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH...CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR WILL BE
INHIBITED BY RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND LACK OF GREATER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ALMOST ALL THE LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES A VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR STORM INITIATION FROM TX NWD
ACROSS MOST OF WRN KS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...DESPITE THESE
SIGNALS...PATTERN RECOGNITION AND MAGNITUDE AND TIMING OF FORCING
FOR ASCENT EMERGING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ALL POINT TO A
CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS INITIATING NEAR
THE DRYLINE BEFORE SUNSET. THIS POTENTIAL WARRANTS AT LEAST LOW
HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES...INCREASING IN MAGNITUDE WITH NWD EXTENT.

FARTHER NORTH...FROM NEAR THE SURFACE LOW/DRYLINE/WARM FRONT OVER
ERN CO/WCNTRL TO NWRN KS...AND EWD ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
OVER NEB...ROBUST TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MORE LIKELY FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. VERY STRONG SHEAR AND FORCING WILL
COINCIDE WITH LOW LEVEL FOCUSED ASCENT AND PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL SRH
NEAR THE LOW AND FRONT. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO OR TWO...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL...IF DISCRETE
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION CAN INITIATE WITHIN RELATIVELY NARROW WARM
SECTOR. OTHERWISE...STRENGTH OF SLOPED ASCENT AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
40-50KT ACROSS THE WARM FRONT WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
NUMEROUS ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS POTENTIAL MAY PERSIST ACROSS
PARTS OF NEB WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET MAINTAINS MASS
INFLOW AND UPPER TROUGH PROVIDES LARGE SCALE ASCENT.

.CARBIN/JEWELL.. 10/13/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 130538
SWODY2
SPC AC 130535

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SRN PLAINS...

..SYNOPSIS...
WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO NEAR THE W COAST LATE...AND AN
UPPER LOW SLOWLY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES....THE MAIN FEATURE WITH RESPECT TO THE
CONVECTIVE/SEVERE FORECAST THIS PERIOD WILL BE AN UPPER TROUGH
EJECTING FROM THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS.

ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS KS/OK...WITH
TRAILING- COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...
LARGE AREA OF STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
CENTERED ON NEB...WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM
ADVECTION N OF SURFACE WARM FRONT. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON THE SRN
SIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND POSSIBLY POSING A THREAT FOR MARGINAL
HAIL.

FURTHER S ALONG COLD FRONT FROM KS SWD INTO N CENTRAL TX...CAPPING
SHOULD SUPPRESS STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING/BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTENING/MIXING AND FOCUSED UVV ALONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT --
AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH...SHOULD WEAKEN CAP
PROGRESSIVELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AIDED
BY ROUGHLY 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE. UPON STORM
INITIATION...UPDRAFTS SHOULD RAPIDLY ORGANIZE -- AS AMPLE CAPE
COMBINED WITH 50 TO 60 KT SWLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS SPREADING ATOP SLY
FLOW WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTS IN AN ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. WHILE STORMS SHOULD MOVE FAIRLY RAPIDLY
NEWD AWAY FROM THE FRONT...EWD EXTENT OF THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY
STABILIZING AIRMASS DURING THE EVENING. ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS...AN ISOLATED TORNADO
COULD ALSO OCCUR AS SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL VEERING/SHEAR AND LOW LCLS
ARE EXPECTED.

AS LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...STORMS
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE. HOWEVER...A SLOW DECREASE IN SEVERE
THREAT IS ANTICIPATED AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.

.GOSS.. 10/13/2007

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Friday, October 12, 2007

KTOP [130319]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 130319
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1019 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1005 PM HAIL ALTA VISTA 38.86N 96.49W
10/12/2007 E0.88 INCH WABAUNSEE KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JL

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2068

ACUS11 KWNS 130307
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130306
KSZ000-NEZ000-130500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2068
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1006 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND NRN KS INTO SERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 130306Z - 130500Z

ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGH 06Z WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE
MOST INTENSE CELLS.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE WRN OK PNHDL WITH
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT ARCING NEWD TO N OF GCK/DDC AND THEN MORE EWD
TO NEAR ICT AND CNU. REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOW THAT SLY LLJ HAS
INCREASED TO 40-45 KT FROM WRN PARTS OF TX/OK INTO N-CNTRL
KS...EFFECTIVELY ENHANCING MOISTURE/THERMAL ADVECTION TO THE N OF
WARM FRONT WITH MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG FOR PARCELS ORIGINATING
FROM 780-750 MB.

A TSTM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THE WARM FRONT NE OF GCK WITH
ADDITIONAL STORMS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OVER PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL INTO NERN KS. CONTINUED ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/WAA ALONG INTENSIFYING LLJ AND ABOVE NEAR-SURFACE FRONTAL
INVERSION SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY TONIGHT ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA. THE MODEST CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
35-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.

.MEAD.. 10/13/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

38339989 38860001 39699922 39949839 40359756 40419680
40159582 39669567 39129554 38469576 38199716 38259903

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 130040
SWODY1
SPC AC 130037

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

VALID 130100Z - 131200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..CNTRL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...
LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET COUPLING BETWEEN COMPLEX DEEP-LAYER
CYCLONE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG TROUGH ADVANCING EAST
FROM THE GREAT BASIN WILL SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF
SLOPED/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS AND MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. RESULTING
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS FORECAST TO OCCUR COINCIDENT
WITH DYNAMIC/ADIABATIC COOLING ALOFT SO THAT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITHIN THE ZONE OF
STRONGEST ASCENT. SUBSEQUENT TSTM/MCS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND EXPAND PRIMARILY ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER AREA...AND
THEN SPREAD EWD ACROSS NERN KS/WRN IA/NWRN MO THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE ROOTED WITHIN THE 800-700MB
LAYER WHERE PARCELS...ORIGINATING WITHIN MOIST AXIS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...REACH AN LFC WELL REMOVED FROM NEAR SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY. SHEAR AND FORCING SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE FOR A FEW
ROBUST ROTATING UPDRAFTS DECOUPLED FROM THE SURFACE LAYER AND
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A COUPLE TO A FEW HAIL EVENTS THROUGH DAYBREAK.
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT
INTRODUCTION OF HIGHER PROBS/SLGT RISK AT THIS TIME.

.CARBIN.. 10/13/2007

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KICT [122322]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 122322
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
622 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0539 PM TSTM WND GST 7 SSE WELLINGTON 37.18N 97.35W
10/12/2007 M67 MPH SUMNER KS TRAINED SPOTTER

67 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED WITH HOME OBSERVING EQUIPMENT.


&&

$$

ADK

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KICT [122240]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 122240
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
540 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0537 PM HAIL 5 S WELLINGTON 37.20N 97.40W
10/12/2007 E1.00 INCH SUMNER KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

BDK

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KTOP [122117]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 122117
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
417 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0414 PM HAIL MINNEAPOLIS 39.12N 97.71W
10/12/2007 M1.75 INCH OTTAWA KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

HAIL, UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE, COVERING THE GROUND.


&&

$$

JL

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KICT [122056]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KICT 122056
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
355 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0804 AM FLOOD LINCOLN 39.04N 98.15W
10/12/2007 LINCOLN KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

A FEW STALLED VEHICLES REPORTED DUE TO STREET FLOODING.

0823 AM HAIL BEVERLY 39.01N 97.98W
10/12/2007 E0.75 INCH LINCOLN KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

0950 AM FLOOD 2 N GLENDALE 38.93N 97.87W
10/12/2007 SALINE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

WATER OVER COUNTY ROAD.

1020 AM FLASH FLOOD LINCOLN 39.04N 98.15W
10/12/2007 LINCOLN KS EMERGENCY MNGR

SAND BAGGING WAS IN PROGRESS AROUND 2 HOMES. ALSO, SOUTH
STREET WAS CLOSED AT LINCOLN AVENUE.

1026 AM HEAVY RAIN WESTFALL 38.93N 98.00W
10/12/2007 M2.20 INCH LINCOLN KS TRAINED SPOTTER

1219 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 NE LINCOLN 39.05N 98.14W
10/12/2007 M3.80 INCH LINCOLN KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

KED

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KLBF [122053]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 122053
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
352 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0350 PM HAIL 8 ENE BRADY 41.07N 100.23W
10/12/2007 E1.00 INCH CUSTER NE PUBLIC

HAILING OFF AND ON FOR LAST 30 MINUTES. HAIL AS LARGE AS
QUARTERS AND GROUND IS WHITE.


&&

$$

HENDERSON

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KLBF [122049]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 122049
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
349 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM HAIL 24 W OCONTO 41.14N 100.22W
10/12/2007 E0.75 INCH CUSTER NE PUBLIC

HAIL MOSTLY SMALLER BUT A FEW PENNIES. 1.34 INCHES OF
RAINFALL OVER PAST HOUR.


&&

$$

HENDERSON

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 121945
SWODY1
SPC AC 121942

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

VALID 122000Z - 131200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PART OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...

..SRN HIGH PLAINS...
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER SERN CO WITH A DRY LINE EXTENDING SSWWD THROUGH THE WRN
OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO SERN NM. THIS DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY...DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS REMAINING UPSTREAM OVER THE SW
STATES AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS SEWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN/DESERT SW
THROUGH TONIGHT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED THE COMBINATION OF
SURFACE HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS WEAKENED INHIBITION FOR SURFACE BASED CU
FORMATION ALONG THE DRY LINE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM...AS INDICATED
BY VISIBLE IMAGERY. DESPITE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...SLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE INFLUX TO SUPPORT INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND EVENTUAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. MUCAPE VALUES ALREADY UP
TO 2000 J/KG COMBINED WITH WLY MID LEVEL WINDS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASING ATTENDANT TO JET STREAK TRANSLATING ACROSS NM ATTM...A
SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR PART OF FAR ERN NM INTO W TX.
THIS SCENARIO FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THIS REGION IS SUPPORTED
BY 18Z RUC WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THREAT TO DEVELOP NWD INTO SWRN
KS BY 13/03Z FOR A MORE CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT. THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUGGEST A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

..CENTRAL PLAINS...
BULK OF ONGOING WAA TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL KS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ELEVATED NORTH OF ATTENDANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED
FROM SERN KS TO NEAR ICT AND THEN NWWD INTO NWRN KS. WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION. ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS NERN CO...NRN KS/SRN NEB AND
EVENTUALLY INTO NWRN MO/SWRN IA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.
1000-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND CLOUD LAYER SHEAR OF 35 KT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS.

.PETERS.. 10/12/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2067

ACUS11 KWNS 121928
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121927
TXZ000-NMZ000-122030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2067
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL NM...NWRN TX

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 121927Z - 122030Z

SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS ERN NM INTO THE TX
SOUTH PLAINS...MAINLY JUST WEST OF ERODED EARLY MORNING STRATUS
DECK. AS A RESULT...MID-UPPER 80S TEMPERATURES HAVE ALL BUT REMOVED
INHIBITION ALONG A NARROW AXIS NEAR THE DRY LINE. THIS IS EVIDENT
BY RECENT BOUNDARY LAYER CU DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION. ALTHOUGH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...IN EXCESS OF 9 C/KM...AND MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1500
J/KG...SUGGEST ROBUST UPDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD CERTAINLY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR
PERHAPS LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS...AS DID DEEP CONVECTION THE LAST
FEW AFTERNOONS. WILL UPDATE THE 20Z OUTLOOK TO REFLECT THIS
LOCALIZED SEVERE THREAT.

.DARROW.. 10/12/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

33700368 34240268 34790238 35890232 35660116 34050166
33070297

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KMFL [121903]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 121903
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
303 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1210 PM WATER SPOUT 8 ENE FORT LAUDERDALE 26.16N 80.03W
10/12/2007 AMZ651 FL AIRPLANE PILOT

PILOT REPORTED THROUGH CWSU WATERSPOUT 8 MILES EAST OF
FORT LAUDERDALE EXECUTIVE AIRPORT.

1230 PM WATER SPOUT 5 E FORT LAUDERDALE 26.12N 80.07W
10/12/2007 AMZ651 FL ASOS

FLL ASOS METAR REPORTED WATERSPOUT BEGINNING 1230 PM
ENDING 1239 PM 3 MILES EAST. MOVEMENT WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

1235 PM WATER SPOUT 5 E PORT EVERGLADES 26.10N 80.04W
10/12/2007 AMZ651 FL NWS EMPLOYEE

NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED WATERSPOUT WITHIN 5 MILES OFF THE
COAST MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWEST. LIFTED BEFORE REACHING THE
COAST.


&&

$$

SANTOS

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KICT [121740]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 121740
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1239 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1219 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 NE LINCOLN 39.05N 98.14W
10/12/2007 M3.80 INCH LINCOLN KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

CDJ

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 121718
SWODY2
SPC AC 121716

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...

..SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD ENEWD FROM THE DESERT SW/GREAT
BASIN ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS DURING DAY 2 FORECAST PERIOD. HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL SUPPORT A LEE CYCLONE OVER SERN CO WHICH SHOULD TRACK NEWD
THROUGH WRN KS SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EWD THROUGH
NRN KS TO THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE A DRY LINE EXTENDS SWD
FROM WRN KS TO W TX SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

..ERN CO/PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN NEB SWD TO TX PANHANDLE...
NWD RETURN OF MODIFIED CP AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO DAY 2...BUT
SHOULD REACH FARTHER N INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITHIN SLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO THE EAST OF CO SURFACE LOW. MODEST MOISTURE RETURN BENEATH
PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /ELEVATED MIXED LAYER/
EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUGGESTS WARM SECTOR WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS MUCH OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER...BY LATE AFTERNOON EXIT REGION OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID
LEVEL JET WILL ADVANCE EWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL ASCENT ATTENDING THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
IN THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED REGIME OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY INTENSIFY AS IT SPREADS EWD INTO THE MOIST AXIS. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND.

THE SRN EXTENT OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL
INTO SWRN KS IS FORECAST TO BE CONDITIONAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. ALL
MORNING MODEL RUNS...EXCEPT THE 12Z NAM WHICH INDICATED GREATER
MOISTURE RETURN...SHOWED THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING CAPPED BENEATH
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND NO TSTM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AT LEAST 14/06Z.
EVEN THE MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE NAM DID NOT INDICATE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT SWD INTO KS UNTIL 14/06-09Z. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
LOWER MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE MODIFIED CP AIR MASS RETURNING NWD.
HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME INDICATION FOR WEAK FORCING TO SPREAD EWD
INTO WRN KS TO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES BY 14/00Z AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH. THIS WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TSTMS...
SOME SUPERCELLS...AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG AND E OF THE DRY LINE. IN
ADDITION TO CONDITIONAL HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS THIS AREA
OF KS TO OK/TX PANHANDLES...STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ FROM W TX TO KS
SATURDAY EVENING IN RESPONSE IN PART TO STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR TORNADO THREAT.
THUS...GIVEN CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THIS OUTLOOK
HAS EXTENDED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA SWD INTO PART OF WRN KS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE NORTH OF WARM FRONT
ACROSS NEB WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ATTENDING
STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL JET. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE
ELEVATED WITH A THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL.

.PETERS.. 10/12/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 121612
SWODY1
SPC AC 121609

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

VALID 121630Z - 131200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN/DESERT SW
THROUGH TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...UPPER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. AT THE SFC...A LEE TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TSTMS
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE TSTMS COULD POSE A SVR HAIL THREAT.
ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND
INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF THE SWRN CONUS UPPER TROUGH.


..SRN HIGH PLAINS...
A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE KS/CO AND NM/TX BORDER THIS MORNING
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO
AN APPROACHING SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH THAT IS MOVING INTO
THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST. MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE FROM
1000-1500 J/KG/ SUPPORTED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-7.5 DEG
C/KM/ AND SFC DEWPTS IN THE 55-60 DEG F RANGE WILL EXIST OVER THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITH TIME...AS MID
LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND 30 KTS AHEAD OF GREAT BASIN UPPER
TROUGH. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK DURING PEAK
HEATING PERIOD...AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS REGION. SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND AFOREMENTIONED
SHEAR/INSTABILITY WOULD FAVOR A SVR HAIL THREAT WITH ANY TSTM THAT
DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...LOW SVR HAIL PROBABILITIES WILL CONTINUE...GIVEN
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE OF THE SVR
THREAT.

..CENTRAL PLAINS...
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER KS/NWRN OK IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WANE
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL JET/INFLOW WEAKENS. ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS NERN CO...NRN
KS/SRN NEB AND EVENTUALLY INTO NWRN MO/SWRN IA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS. 1000-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND 35 KTS OF CLOUD LAYER
SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SVR HAIL WITH THE
STRONGEST TSTMS.

.CROSBIE/HALES.. 10/12/2007

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KICT [121527]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 121527
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1027 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1026 AM HEAVY RAIN WESTFALL 38.93N 98.00W
10/12/2007 M2.20 INCH LINCOLN KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

LFW

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KICT [121525]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 121525
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1025 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1020 AM FLASH FLOOD LINCOLN 39.04N 98.15W
10/12/2007 LINCOLN KS EMERGENCY MNGR

SAND BAGGING WAS IN PROGRESS AROUND 2 HOMES. ALSO, SOUTH
STREET WAS CLOSED AT LINCOLN AVENUE.


&&

$$

KED

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KDVN [121519]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KDVN 121519
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1019 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0915 AM HEAVY RAIN PARK VIEW 41.69N 90.54W
08/19/2007 M0.50 INCH SCOTT IA NWS EMPLOYEE

ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN IN 6 MINUTES. MINOR STREET
FLOODING.

0336 PM HEAVY RAIN STANLEY 42.64N 91.81W
08/19/2007 M0.70 INCH BUCHANAN IA TRAINED SPOTTER

.70 INCHES OF RAIN IN 14 MINUTES

0345 PM HEAVY RAIN OQUAWKA 40.94N 90.95W
08/19/2007 E1.00 INCH HENDERSON IL TRAINED SPOTTER

OVER 1 INCH OF RAIN IN PAST 45 MINUTES.

0352 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 N JESUP 42.55N 92.07W
08/19/2007 M1.50 INCH BUCHANAN IA TRAINED SPOTTER

IN THE PAST HOUR.

0540 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 N MUSCATINE 41.42N 91.06W
08/19/2007 M1.70 INCH MUSCATINE IA TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL TOTAL SINCE 1 PM.

0650 PM HEAVY RAIN STANLEY 42.64N 91.81W
08/19/2007 M1.19 INCH BUCHANAN IA TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL TOTAL SINCE 317 P.M.

0808 PM HEAVY RAIN ASBURY 42.51N 90.76W
08/19/2007 M1.30 INCH DUBUQUE IA TRAINED SPOTTER

1.0 INCH OF RAIN SINCE 430 PM...DAILY TOTAL SO FAR 1.30
INCHES.

0815 PM FLASH FLOOD INDEPENDENCE 42.47N 91.89W
08/19/2007 BUCHANAN IA EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER COVERING US HWY 150 ABOUT 1 FOOT DEEP. WATER
FLOODING A FEW BASEMENTS ON NE SIDE OF INDEPENDENCE.
DELAYED REPORT.

0838 PM HEAVY RAIN EDGEWOOD 42.64N 91.40W
08/19/2007 M1.60 INCH DELAWARE IA TRAINED SPOTTER

RAIN FALL SINCE 2 PM.

0900 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 ENE INDEPENDENCE 42.50N 91.80W
08/19/2007 E0.00 INCH BUCHANAN IA CO-OP OBSERVER

DELAYED REPORT. CO-OP REPORTED THAT SEVERAL CREEKS WERE
OUT OF THEIR BANKS BUT NOT IMPACTING ANY ROADS OR
PROPERTY.

0923 PM HEAVY RAIN N AURORA 42.62N 91.73W
08/19/2007 M1.00 INCH BUCHANAN IA TRAINED SPOTTER

AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN PAST 20 MINUTES...AND 2.90
INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN SINCE 315 P.M.

0930 PM HEAVY RAIN DYERSVILLE 42.48N 91.12W
08/19/2007 M1.50 INCH DUBUQUE IA TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL SINCE 3 PM. GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED.

1110 PM HEAVY RAIN SOLON 41.81N 91.49W
08/19/2007 M1.90 INCH JOHNSON IA TRAINED SPOTTER

1.90 INCHES OF RAIN IN 60 MINUTES.

1135 PM HEAVY RAIN STANLEY 42.64N 91.81W
08/19/2007 M2.26 INCH BUCHANAN IA PUBLIC

SINCE 317 PM. STILL RAINING LIGHTLY.

1135 PM HEAVY RAIN SOLON 41.81N 91.49W
08/19/2007 M2.59 INCH JOHNSON IA TRAINED SPOTTER

SINCE 1015 PM. NO MAJOR WATER PROBLEMS.

0445 AM HEAVY RAIN SHERRARD 41.32N 90.51W
08/20/2007 M1.20 INCH MERCER IL TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL SINCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

0500 AM HEAVY RAIN EDGEWOOD 42.64N 91.40W
08/20/2007 M2.90 INCH DELAWARE IA TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL AS OF 5 AM.

0530 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SSW DAVENPORT 41.54N 90.61W
08/20/2007 M1.11 INCH SCOTT IA TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS REPORT

0630 AM HEAVY RAIN ESE SOLON 41.81N 91.49W
08/20/2007 M2.72 INCH JOHNSON IA TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS REPORT

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN WSW PARK VIEW 41.69N 90.54W
08/20/2007 M1.43 INCH SCOTT IA TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS REPORT

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NW FREEPORT 42.31N 89.66W
08/20/2007 M1.11 INCH STEPHENSON IL TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS REPORT

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN W NORWAY 41.90N 91.92W
08/20/2007 M1.69 INCH BENTON IA TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS REPORT

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN NNE MANCHESTER 42.49N 91.46W
08/20/2007 M2.20 INCH DELAWARE IA TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS REPORT

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN W GERMAN VALLEY 42.22N 89.48W
08/20/2007 M1.24 INCH STEPHENSON IL TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS REPORT

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 N FREEPORT 42.33N 89.63W
08/20/2007 M1.37 INCH STEPHENSON IL TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS REPORT

0705 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NW ORANGEVILLE 42.49N 89.67W
08/20/2007 M1.84 INCH STEPHENSON IL TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS REPORT

0705 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 N PRINCETON 41.37N 89.45W
08/20/2007 M1.83 INCH BUREAU IL TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR RAINFALL

0706 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 E DUBUQUE 42.50N 90.67W
08/20/2007 M1.73 INCH DUBUQUE IA TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS REPORT

0730 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NW FREEPORT 42.31N 89.66W
08/20/2007 M1.11 INCH STEPHENSON IL TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS REPORT

0733 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NW KEWANEE 41.26N 89.96W
08/20/2007 M2.50 INCH HENRY IL TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL SINCE NOON SUNDAY.

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 NNE LE CLAIRE 41.61N 90.36W
08/20/2007 M1.33 INCH SCOTT IA TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS REPORT

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN ATKINSON 41.42N 90.01W
08/20/2007 M1.47 INCH HENRY IL TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HR TOTAL


&&

$$

STORM DATA

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KICT [121459]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 121459
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
959 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0950 AM FLOOD 2 N GLENDALE 38.93N 97.87W
10/12/2007 SALINE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

WATER OVER COUNTY ROAD.


&&

$$

LFW

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KICT [121356]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 121356
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
855 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0804 AM FLOOD LINCOLN 39.04N 98.15W
10/12/2007 LINCOLN KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

A FEW STALLED VEHICLES REPORTED DUE TO STREET FLOODING.


&&

$$

KED

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KICT [121354]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 121354
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
854 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0823 AM HAIL BEVERLY 39.01N 97.98W
10/12/2007 E0.75 INCH LINCOLN KS LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

KED

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KCYS [121322]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 121322
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
722 AM MDT FRI OCT 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0226 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BORDEAUX 41.95N 104.95W
10/02/2007 M68 MPH PLATTE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 50S AND 60S BETWEEN 11AM AND 3PM.

0730 AM HIGH SUST WINDS BUFORD 41.11N 105.30W
10/02/2007 M50 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH AND GREATER AND GUSTS TO NEAR
70 MPH BETWEEN 7 AM AND 11 AM.


&&

$$

GRIFFITH

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 121246
SWODY1
SPC AC 121243

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
FAIRLY POTENT UPR LOW/TROUGH NOW OFF THE NRN CA CST SHOULD CONTINUE
E/SE TO NEAR SFO THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING MORE E INTO THE SRN GRT
BASIN EARLY SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...EXPECT DOWNSTREAM RIDGE TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE PLNS GIVEN SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION/EWD MOVEMENT OF
COMPLEX SYSTEM OVER THE GRT LKS/NORTHEAST.

AT THE SFC...A LEE LOW SHOULD CONSOLIDATE WITH TIME OVER THE SRN HI
PLNS AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE CNTRL/SRN RCKYS. PERSISTENT LOW LVL
RIDGING ACROSS THE NWRN GULF/LWR MS VLY...HOWEVER...WILL KEEP AXIS
OF BOUNDARY LYR MOISTURE RETURN COMPARATIVELY NARROW INVOF
STRENGTHENING LLJ OVER THE SRN/CNTRL PLNS.

..CNTRL PLNS...
SCTD ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY IN AREA OF WAA
IN EXIT REGION OF LLJ OVER PARTS OF KS AND SRN NEB. ADDITIONAL BUT
MORE WIDELY SCTD DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR SWD ALONG ERN SIDE OF
LLJ INTO WRN OK/NW TX. DIURNAL HEATING AND CONTINUED MOISTURE
INFLUX IN UPSTREAM ENVIRONMENT MAY ENHANCE UPDRAFT STRENGTH THIS
AFTN/EVENING...AND YIELD A FEW STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.
FARTHER SW...RELATIVELY WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT...ABSENCE OF SFC
FOCUSING MECHANISMS...AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT POTENTIAL
FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS IN WARM SECTOR WILL BE LOW.

LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY EXPECT STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
FROM CNTRL/NRN KS INTO WRN/SRN NEB AND PERHAPS SW SD AS LLJ
INTENSIFIES IN RESPONSE TO BOTH DIURNAL INFLUENCES AND CONTINUED EWD
MOVEMENT OF CA TROUGH. STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE
RATES AND 30-40 KT CLOUD-LYR SHEAR COULD POSE A THREAT FOR
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WITH SOME STORMS.

..SRN HI PLNS...
ISOLD LATE AFTN TSTMS MAY ONCE AGAIN FORM IN LOW LVL MOISTURE AXIS
FROM THE SW TX MOUNTAINS NNE INTO THE SRN HI PLNS. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY /SBCAPE TO 1000 J PER KG/ SHOULD DEVELOP TO SUPPORT
STRONG UPDRAFTS. BUT WEAKER UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO NEAR-SFC
WINDS...AND MORE ZONAL MID/UPR UPR FLOW...SUGGEST THAT COVERAGE OF
SUSTAINED ACTIVITY SHOULD BE REDUCED RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS/POSSIBLE SHORT-LIVED
SUPERCELLS...SHOULD EXIST OVER W TX...WHERE A FEW HAIL REPORTS MAY
OCCUR.

.CORFIDI/GRAMS.. 10/12/2007

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KAMA [121058]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KAMA 121058
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
556 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0735 AM HAIL 11 NNW HOOVER 35.74N 100.94W
10/11/2007 E0.88 INCH ROBERTS TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

ON STATE HIGHWAY 70...DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
REPORTED.


0839 AM HAIL 5 N PAMPA 35.62N 100.96W
10/11/2007 E1.00 INCH GRAY TX BROADCAST MEDIA


1110 AM HAIL 4 NNW HEDLEY 34.92N 100.68W
10/11/2007 E1.25 INCH DONLEY TX PUBLIC

HAIL QUARTER SIZE TO SLIGHTLY LESS THAN GOLFBALL SIZE


0438 PM HAIL 5 E BOOTLEG 34.83N 102.73W
10/11/2007 M1.00 INCH DEAF SMITH TX EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

EVENT NUMBER 00024 00023 00025 00027

$$

ERA

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2066

ACUS11 KWNS 121009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121009
KSZ000-NEZ000-121245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2066
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0509 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN NEB...NWRN/W-CENTRAL/CENTRAL KS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 121009Z - 121245Z

THROUGH 12Z...ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE IN BELT FROM NEAR MCK SEWD TO BETWEEN RSL-CNK...WITH MORE
DISCRETE/ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE SWD TOWARD GBD-DDC AREAS.
MAIN CONCERN IS HAIL...SOME OF WHICH MAY REACH SVR LEVELS FOR SHORT
PERIODS IN MOST INTENSE CELLS.

VWP/PROFILER DATA SHOWS 30-40 KT LLJ FROM TX PANHANDLE NNEWD ACROSS
SWRN KS...BECOMING DIFLUENT FARTHER N INTO SRN NEB AND NE INTO
N-CENTRAL KS. KS PORTION LLJ IS 10-15 KT STRONGER THAN FCST BY
PRIOR RUC RUNS FOR SAME REGION...AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN NAM ON N
END...WITH DIFLUENT AREA FARTHER NE. THIS INDICATES STRONGER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PERHAPS LARGER VALUES OF ELEVATED MIXING
RATIO THAN INDICATED BY MODEL GUIDANCE. TIME SERIES OF MODIFIED RUC
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WAA AND MOIST ADVECTION ABOVE SFC WILL CONTINUE IN
DISCUSSION AREA...INCREASING LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BUOYANCY.
PARCELS ISENTROPICALLY RAISED TO LFC MAY ACCESS ELEVATED MUCAPES
500-1000 J/KG...AMIDST 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES -- MAINLY
BETWEEN MCK-CNK. LACK OF MORE ROBUST MOISTURE AND SHEAR WILL LIMIT
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SVR...THOUGH MRGL HAILSTONES ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION.

FURTHER EWD EXPANSION OF CONVECTIVE PLUME TOWARD MHK-TOP VICINITY IS
POSSIBLE ALSO AS NEWD EXTENSION OF LLJ VEERS AROUND 12Z.
HOWEVER...WEAKER MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY...AS WELL AS SHORTER DURATION
OF LLJ MAX AND ACCOMPANYING DESTABILIZATION...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
LOWER HAIL POTENTIAL THERE.

.EDWARDS.. 10/12/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

40320095 40079937 39679769 38979693 38419880 37829992
38800028

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 120905
SWOD48
SPC AC 120904

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0404 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

VALID 151200Z - 201200Z

..DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
THIS FORECAST. WHILE BOTH MODELS BRING A FEATURE INTO THE PLAINS
DAY 6 /I.E. WEDNESDAY OCT. 17/...THE ORIGIN OF THE FEATURE WITHIN
THE TWO MODELS IS OF DIFFERENT. BY DAY 7...CORRELATION BETWEEN THE
TWO MODELS HAS DECREASED FURTHER...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A CLOSED
LOW OVER NERN NM AT 19/00Z...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER
IA. THUS...WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO DELINEATE ANY SEVERE AREA BEYOND DAY
6.

WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT AREA DAY 6 CENTERED ON KS/OK...BUT THIS IS A
RELATIVELY LOW-CONFIDENCE AREA DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED EVOLUTION
DIFFERENCES OF THE UPPER PATTERN BETWEEN THE MODELS. BOTH DO SHOW
THE PRESENCE OF A LEE LOW...AND SOME MOISTURE RETURN/DESTABILIZATION
INTO THE PLAINS. WITH FLOW ALOFT LIKELY SUPPORTIVE OF STORM
ORGANIZATION...POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS.

.GOSS.. 10/12/2007

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 120731
SWODY3
SPC AC 120729

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN
PLAINS...

..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE PLAINS THIS
PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATELY-STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET. AT
THE SURFACE...LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS NRN KS/SRN
NEB...WHILE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWD ACROSS KS/OK/TX.

..CENTRAL PLAINS INTO OK...
DAY 3 IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO DAY 2...IN THAT
WARM-SECTOR CONVECTION SHOULD STAY LARGELY-SUPPRESSED BY MODEST
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CAPPING...WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD/ELEVATED STORMS
AND A LIMITED HAIL THREAT OCCUR WITHIN WARM ADVECTION REGIME N OF
WARM FRONT.

POTENTIAL FOR WARM SECTOR STORMS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DAY 3...AS
THE ENTRANCE-REGION OF THE UPPER JET SPREADS ATOP THE FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS KS/NEB. RESULTING UVV MAY POSSIBLY WEAKEN THE CAP TO A
GREATER DEGREE THAN ON DAY 2 INVOF THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WITH 50 KT SWLYS AT MID LEVELS SPREADING ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ROTATION WITHIN ANY UPDRAFTS WHICH DID
DEVELOP. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK/15% SEVERE PROBABILITY
FROM SRN NEB/THE MID MO VALLEY SWD INTO NRN OK.

.GOSS.. 10/12/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 120602
SWODY2
SPC AC 120600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NERN CO...NWRN
KS...AND NEB...

..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER ERN CANADA AND
INTO THE NERN CONUS...WHILE A SECOND TROUGH/LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
AFFECTING THE PLAINS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...AS RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE CONUS IS SHUNTED EWD WITH TIME.

AT THE SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...A SUB-1000 MB LOW IS FORECAST INVOF WRN KS...WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SSWWD ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND INTO FAR W TX.

..PARTS NERN CO/NWRN KS/SRN NEB...
THUNDERSTORMS -- DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION/WEAKENING NOCTURNAL
LOW-LEVEL JET -- SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS
ERN KS AND INTO THE MID MO VALLEY...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY.

MEANWHILE...THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD SHIFT WWD
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IN LEE
OF THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

DESPITE THE DEVELOPING LOW AND ASSOCIATED SLY FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...MOISTURE RETURN IS FORECAST TO BE MODEST AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD YIELD A PERSISTENT CAP...AND THUS ATTM IT APPEARS THAT WARM
SECTOR STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN SUPPRESSED. WILL MAINTAIN
5%/CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...AS INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS/SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONVECTION INITIATE.

MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT N OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN KS AND INTO NEB
OVERNIGHT...AS 60 KT SLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. DEGREE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
HAIL WITH STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

.GOSS.. 10/12/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 120512
SWODY1
SPC AC 120509

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE WEST COAST TODAY
AND CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN REGIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS THE CNTRL STATES WILL
PERSIST GIVEN SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION/EWD TRANSLATION OF COMPLEX
DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE AFFECTING ERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. CLOSER
TO THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL EXTEND FROM THE MS VALLEY
TO THE SOUTHEAST. MOIST AXIS ON THE WRN/SWRN FLANK OF THIS HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EXPAND NWD FROM TX TO THE CNTRL PLAINS ON
PERSISTENT SLY LOW LEVEL JET. LEE CYCLOGENESIS AND WARM
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER CO/KS FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACH OF WRN TROUGH MOVES OVER THESE AREAS.

..KS/MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...
A FEW STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY TODAY OVER KS AIDED BY FOCUSED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. A FEW CLUSTERS
OF ELEVATED STORMS MAY PERSIST IN THIS ZONE...OR NEW DEVELOPMENT MAY
OCCUR...AS WARM FRONT BECOMES BETTER DEFINED ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TODAY. INFLUX OF INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE WARM FRONT MAY
ENHANCE UPDRAFT STRENGTH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO EVENING
WITH A COUPLE OF SEVERE HAIL EVENTS POSSIBLE. WITH GENERALLY WEAK
LARGE SCALE FORCING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION APPEARS LOW.

STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE CNTRL PLAINS AS INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET MAINTAINS MOISTURE
FLUX AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT STRENGTHENS. STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40KT SUGGEST HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY A
FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

..SRN HIGH PLAINS...
WHILE EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND STRONG INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER
INDICATIONS THAT ONLY ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. THIS APPEARS LIKE A REASONABLE SCENARIO GIVEN LACK OF
GREATER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LOW
PROBABILITY HAIL FORECAST APPEARS ADEQUATE WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL EXPECTED.

.CARBIN/GRAMS.. 10/12/2007

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