MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2315

ACUS11 KWNS 071831
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071830
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-072030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2315
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 PM CDT TUE OCT 07 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...NWRN MS...WRN TN...MO BOOTHEEL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 071830Z - 072030Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND. A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A SMALL SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE ADDED AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE SLY WINDS HAVE ADVECTED TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S F AS FAR N AS THE MO
BOOTHEEL. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF CU DEVELOPING NEAR THE MS
RIVER WHERE AN AXIS OF CONVERGENCE EXISTS.

ALTHOUGH A LEAD UPPER SHORTWAVE NOW EXISTS OVER NR AR AND SE MO AND
WILL DEPART THE AREA...CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF AND ALONG AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL RESULT
IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. DEEP
LAYER WIND FIELDS FAVOR A FEW LONG LIVED STORMS...POSSIBLY SMALL
BOWS THAT WILL TRAVEL NEWD WITH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...OVERALL...DOES NOT FAVOR TORNADOES DUE TO WEAK AND VEERING
SURFACE WINDS WITH TIME. HOWEVER...A BRIEF WINDOW MAY EXIST FOR A
TORNADO WITH ANY NON-OUTFLOW DOMINANT CELLULAR STORM THAT EVOLVES
AND MOVES E OF THE MS RIVER WHERE SURFACE WINDS ARE A BIT MORE
BACKED.

..JEWELL.. 10/07/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...

33688990 33169057 33049144 33229205 33699190 34479150
35549069 36239027 36449004 36498969 36488915 36478849
35278878

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KJAN [071827]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KJAN 071827 CCA
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
349 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0305 AM TSTM WND DMG COLUMBUS 33.51N 88.40W
10/07/2008 LOWNDES MS EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AROUND THE CITY OF COLUMBUS WITH
TREES ON POWERLINES...CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. SEVERAL
HOMES WERE DAMAGED.

&&

$$

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 071720
SWODY2
SPC AC 071717

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT TUE OCT 07 2008

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR WITHIN
THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN/EASTERN PACIFIC INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN STATES...UPPER FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION
APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN LARGELY ZONAL THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
WITHIN THIS REGIME...THE EXIT REGION OF A STRONG MID/UPPER JET
STREAK IS PROGGED TO NOSE EAST OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...THE IMPACT ON DOWNSTREAM COUPLED NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IS STILL A SOURCE OF CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY AMONG MODEL DATA. BUT...IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT AN
INCREASINGLY SHEARED/DEFORMED NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY CUT-OFF...OR PROGRESSES MORE
SLOWLY...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING IN THE WAKE OF A RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE...
AND AHEAD OF A WEAKENING SURFACE COLD FRONT /ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEAD SHORT WAVE IMPULSES/...MAY STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN
PROBABILITIES OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN GULF STATES
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BUT...THESE PROBABILITIES...AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN GENERAL...
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY LOW DUE RATHER MODEST LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND WEAK DESTABILIZATION.

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
BEYOND LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...THE FOCUS FOR THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY SHIFT FROM THE WEAKENING COLD
FRONT...SHIFTING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER AREA...TO A
SURFACE WAVE ALONG A RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALABAMA/GEORGIA INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. UNLESS THIS WAVE
DEVELOPMENT IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS
INDICATE...BOUNDARY LAYER BASED INSTABILITY INLAND OF COASTAL AREAS
PROBABLY WILL BE WEAK AND FAIRLY CONFINED. COUPLED WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD THAT LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW FIELDS MAY ONLY BECOME MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS OR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW. IT MAY NOT BE
COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE...HOWEVER...AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR
TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...MAINLY NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE
WAVE AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..KERR.. 10/07/2008

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KABR [071626]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 071626
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1126 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 NNE ASTORIA 44.64N 96.50W
10/07/2008 E3.10 INCH DEUEL SD TRAINED SPOTTER

PREVIOUS 24 HOUR RAIN TOTAL ENDING AT 7AM TUE

&&

$$

KKRAML

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2314

ACUS11 KWNS 071625
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071624
MSZ000-LAZ000-071900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2314
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN LA...SW MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 071624Z - 071900Z

STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL
LIKELY.

A LINE OF STORMS WAS CONSOLIDATING ACROSS CNTRL LA AROUND 16Z. THESE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO AN UNCAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. 12Z LCH SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR MID 70S F DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S F YIELDS MUCAPE NEAR 3000 J/KG.

WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK...AND THUS THE TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE VERY LOW...MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS STRONG ENOUGH
TO RESULT IN FORWARD PROPAGATING STORMS WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARM FOR A
SIGNIFICANT HAIL THREAT...BUT THE STRONGEST CORES WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME MARGINAL HAIL.

..JEWELL.. 10/07/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

29699307 30479267 31359227 32489174 32979110 32979068
32798991 32348980 31538962 30178982 29739027 29109099
29429142 29549216 29559265

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 071624
SWODY1
SPC AC 071621

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2008

VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
A PAIR OF LOOSELY PHASED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE EWD OVER THE MS
VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
LINKED TO THE SRN TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A LEAD TROUGH
IS EJECTING NEWD OVER NE TX/AR WITHIN THE BROADER SRN TROUGH...WHILE
THE PRIMARY UPSTREAM WAVE NOW OVER OK WILL PROGRESS ESEWD TO THE
ARKLAMISS REGION LATE TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK CYCLONE IN
WRN MO IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS MO/IL THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES EWD FROM ERN OK/TX ACROSS AR/LA.
THE COLD FRONT IS PRECEDED BY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND A BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AN AXIS FROM ROUGHLY MLU TO LCH. FARTHER E...A
RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC ZONE MARKS THE NE EDGE OF THE RICHER MOISTURE
FROM WRN TN SSEWD ACROSS NE MS INTO SW AL.

THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND ACROSS LA SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS
ELIMINATED ACROSS THE LA/MS WARM SECTOR. MODIFIED 12Z
SOUNDINGS...DESPITE MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5 C/KM...
SUGGEST THAT AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH 1000-1500
J/KG TOWARD NRN MS/AR WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 75-80 F AND
DEWPOINTS OF 68-70 F...AND 2000 J/KG FARTHER S INTO SRN LA WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S WITH MID 70S DEWPOINTS.
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS AND RECENT VWP/S SHOW WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR
/ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVELS/ S OF I-20 WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
GREATEST...AND A LITTLE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS NRN MS/WRN
TN ALONG THE RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC ZONE WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
WEAKER. THE COMBINATION OF INGREDIENTS APPEARS RATHER MARGINAL FOR
AN ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM THREAT IN EITHER AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...ASIDE FROM MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
OUTFLOW GUSTS. A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED...AND INTO TONIGHT AS
LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES SOME OVER AL WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE W. STILL...THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
MARGINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...MT AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A STRONG NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD OVER CENTRAL/ERN MT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED ACROSS MT
TODAY...THOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTENING AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WITH GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE FRONT.

..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 10/07/2008

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KFWD [071624]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 071624
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1123 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0910 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 S BUFFALO 31.42N 96.06W
10/06/2008 LEON TX PUBLIC

TREE BLOWN DOWN...TIME ESTIMATED

$$

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KFWD [071621]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 071621
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1121 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0628 PM TSTM WND DMG WALNUT SPRINGS 32.06N 97.75W
10/06/2008 BOSQUE TX PUBLIC

ROOF OF PORCH BLOWN OFF...TIME ESTIMATED

$$

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KJAN [071402]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 071402
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
902 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0310 AM HAIL COLUMBUS 33.51N 88.40W
10/07/2008 E0.75 INCH LOWNDES MS EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

$$

SCW

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 071253
SWODY1
SPC AC 071251

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2008

VALID 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY/MID SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...MID SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST...
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ESEWD ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING WSWLY H5 FLOW
OVERSPREADING THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST. SURFACE
COLD FRONT NOW MOVING ACROSS THE OZARK REGION/ERN TX WILL LIKEWISE
ADVANCE STEADILY EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND LIKELY EXTEND ALONG OR
JUST WEST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY LATER TODAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AXIS OF LOWER 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE
AND WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING GENERALLY NWD THROUGH THE DAY INTO
PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH. IN ADDITION...12Z SOUNDINGS FROM SIL AND
LCH INDICATE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RELATIVELY STEEP WITHIN
BROAD MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY NOW
OVERSPREADING THIS REGION.

WITH CONTINUED ASCENT WITHIN RESERVOIR OF WEAK TO MODERATE
MUCAPE...EXPECT SCATTERED MOIST CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY. ALTHOUGH MORE VIGOROUS
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR NEAR THE FRONT AS DIURNAL HEATING SUPPORTS
MODERATE MLCAPE /ACCORDING TO MODIFIED 12Z LCH SOUNDING/ AND
DIMINISHES CINH. APPEARS SETUP WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE MULTICELLS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF STRONG MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM PARTS OF SWRN LA/ERN AR
ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLATED
TORNADOES CAN NOT BE DISCOUNTED GIVEN THE RICH GULF MOISTURE AND
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...DESPITE THE MARGINAL LOW
LEVEL SHEAR FORECAST. HOWEVER...PRIMARY THREATS MAY BE FROM
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. OVERNIGHT...BROAD REGION OF
MODEST SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED 25-35 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL SHIFT SEWD ACROSS MORE OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.
THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS EVENING...PERSISTENT INFLUX OF RICH GULF
MOISTURE SHOULD MAINTAIN THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
OVERNIGHT.

..EVANS.. 10/07/2008

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2313

ACUS11 KWNS 071247
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071247
LAZ000-TXZ000-071415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2313
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST TX INTO LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 071247Z - 071415Z

AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK MAY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST TX INTO LA. THE NEED FOR A WATCH IN THE SHORT
TERM IS UNCLEAR...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

30-KT EAST-MOVING/NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED CONVECTIVE LINE
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST TX HAS INTENSIFIED TO A DEGREE OVER THE PAST
HOUR...WITH SOME MODEST BOWING NORTHEAST OF THE HOUSTON AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. GIVEN A VERY MOIST DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS WITH LOW TO MID
70S F DEWPOINTS AND GRADUAL HEATING THROUGH THE MORNING...POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR THIS CONVECTIVE LINE AND/OR LEADING MORE DISCRETE
DEVELOPMENT TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
TX/MUCH OF LA. OBSERVED 12Z RAOBS FROM LAKE CHARLES/NEW ORLEANS
REFLECT MODERATE BUOYANCY AND ONLY WEAK INHIBITION...WITH MODIFIED
VERSIONS OF THESE SOUNDINGS IMPLYING AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
WIND DAMAGE /AND PERHAPS A TORNADO/ AS TEMPERATURES DIURNALLY WARM
THROUGH THE 80S F TODAY. MORNING RAOBS/WSR-88D DERIVED WINDS SUGGEST
VERTICAL SHEAR BECOMES MORE MARGINAL WITH SOUTH EXTENT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TX/LA...BUT AROUND 30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO QUASI-ORGANIZED MAINLY MULTICELLULAR/LINEAR
ORGANIZATION.

..GUYER.. 10/07/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...

31119398 31999330 31839163 29899211 29539424 28549606
29409621 30289498

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KJAN [071059]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 071059
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
559 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0310 AM TSTM WND DMG COLUMBUS 33.51N 88.40W
10/07/2008 LOWNDES MS EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES FELL ON 4 HOUSES AND A SHELL GAS STATION. AN
APARTMENT COMPLEX WAS EVACUATED AFTER A FALLEN TREE
RUPTURED THE GAS LINE. POWER OUTAGES WERE REPORTED AROUND
THE CITY OF COLUMBUS

&&

$$

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KJAN [070850]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 070850
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
349 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0305 AM TSTM WND DMG COLUMBUS 33.51N 88.40W
10/07/2008 LOWNDES MS EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AROUND THE CITY OF THE COLUMBUS.
TREEES ON POWERLINES...CAUSING OUTAGES. SEVERAL HOMES
DAMAGED.

&&

$$

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 070752
SWOD48
SPC AC 070751

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2008

VALID 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODELS 500 MB EVOLUTION ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AT LEAST
THROUGH DAY 5 WITH GFS TRENDING TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF
RUNS. PATTERN IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION BY
DAY 4 WITH A BROAD CLOSED UPPER LOW EVOLVING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
ADVANCE SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO LIMITED FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE
THREAT UNTIL LATER DAY 5 WHEN MODIFIED CP AIR WILL RETURN NWWD
THROUGH THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST
OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS THROUGH DAY 6. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST FROM WRN TX THROUGH KS FROM
LATE DAY 5 INTO DAY 6. DETAILS REGARDING UPPER TROUGH EVOLUTION AND
RELATED SURFACE PATTERN BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER DAY 5 SO PREFER TO
WAIT FOR ANOTHER SET OF MODEL RUNS BEFORE INTRODUCING A RISK AREA.

..DIAL.. 10/07/2008

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 070710
SWODY3
SPC AC 070708

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2008

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...PORTIONS OF SERN STATES AND FL...

DIFFERENCES PERSIST BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE NAM IN HANDLING
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SERN STATES ON THURSDAY. THE NAM IS
CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND CUTS THE LOW OFF OVER THE NRN GULF WHILE THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE SOMEWHAT FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM
BECOMING CUTOFF OVER GA. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF THIS
PERIOD.

IN EITHER CASE THE UPPER LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME
MORE EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC IN NATURE WITH A CORRESPONDING DECREASE
IN LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR. A FEW STRONG MULTICELL
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE UPPER LOW CENTER WHERE
TEMPERATURES NEAR -12C AT 500 MB WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL IF
SUFFICIENT DIABATIC HEATING OCCURS. OTHERWISE ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS DEVELOPING OVER FL IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES.

..DIAL.. 10/07/2008

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KLZK [070617]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 070617
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
117 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0114 AM FLASH FLOOD SPARKMAN 33.92N 92.85W
10/07/2008 DALLAS AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

THUNDERSTORMS HAD PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN AND CREATED
FLOODING ALONG HIGHWAY 7 SOUTH OF SPARKMAN. ALSO ALONG
PARTS OF HIGHWAY 9.

&&

$$

MTREXLER

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 070600
SWODY2
SPC AC 070558

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2008

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SERN STATES...

COLD ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL JET DROPPING SWD ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME SWD
AMPLIFICATION AS THIS FEATURE MOVES TOWARD THE SERN STATES ON
WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FARTHER NORTH THAN THE NAM AND NAM
KF WHICH CLOSE OFF THIS FEATURE EARLIER. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT SLOWLY NWD INTO
THE SRN PARTS OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL SHIFT EAST WITH SELY
FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED EAST OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE
UPPER TROUGH. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 70 OVER
THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA TO LOW 60S OVER THE TN VALLEY. IT STILL
APPEARS THAT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND ONGOING CONVECTION WITHIN ZONE OF
ASCENT ATTENDING UPPER TROUGH WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION AND LAPSE
RATES OVER MUCH OF THE MOIST AXIS. MCLAPE WILL SHOULD REMAIN AOB 500
J/KG OVER MOST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER SRN PARTS OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES WHERE LOW
CLOUDS ARE MORE LIKELY TO MIX OUT AND WHERE RICHER MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE SOUTH OF WARM FRONT. ESELY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FROM
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING
PRECIPITATION ON COOLER SIDE OF WARM FRONT SHOULD LIMIT NWD RETREAT
OF THIS BOUNDARY.

BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN
SOUTH OF WARM FRONT OVER SRN PARTS OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES WHERE
GREATER DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL WILL EXIST. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS NWD THROUGH THE
SRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...MODERATE WSWLY 500 MB FLOW
ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT BULK
SHEAR FOR A THREAT OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS. LARGER HODOGRAPHS WILL
EXIST NORTH OF WARM FRONT AND MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF
LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AS STORMS CROSS THIS BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...ANY
TORNADO THREAT CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL GIVEN PROBABILITY
THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY REMAIN TOO STABLE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
THIS FRONT.

MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH UPPER LOW TIMING AND PLACEMENT AS WELL AS
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING EVOLUTION OF EARLY CONVECTION PRECLUDES MORE
THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK IN LATER
OUTLOOKS.

..DIAL.. 10/07/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 070555
SWODY1
SPC AC 070552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2008

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE/SHARP MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH NOW DIGGING SSEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONT/CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD
OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS/INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...EVENTUALLY
SHARPENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES LATER
IN THE PERIOD. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGHING
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM E TX/LA
EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...WHICH SHOULD THEN
DEVELOP/SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT HEATING/POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION...THUS LIKELY LIMITING THE OVERALL SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

NONETHELESS...WITH A BELT OF MODERATE /35 TO 45 KT/ MID-LEVEL SWLYS
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING TROUGH FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION...AMPLE SHEAR FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION SUGGESTS AT
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. ATTM...WILL
MAINTAIN SEE TEXT/5% SEVERE PROBABILITY...BUT AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT
RISK OVER A PORTION OF THIS REGION MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER
FORECASTS.

..GOSS.. 10/07/2008

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KSHV [070505]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 070505
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1205 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1005 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG PRESCOTT 33.80N 93.39W
10/06/2008 NEVADA AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

A TREE DOWN ON A POWER LINE IN THE CITY DUE TO THE SOGGY
GROUND.

&&

$$

STAPLETON

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KSHV [070501]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 070501
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1201 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0535 PM TSTM WND DMG 10 E LINDEN 33.01N 94.19W
10/06/2008 CASS TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWNED IN THE HUFFINES AND SMYRNA
AREAS ALONG FM 1841.

&&

$$

STAPLETON

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