KJAX [181722]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 181722
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
121 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0117 PM HIGH SURF FLAGLER BEACH 29.47N 81.13W
09/18/2011 FLAGLER FL TRAINED SPOTTER

FLAGLER COUNTY SKYWARN SPOTTERS ADVISE THAT THE FLAGLER
BEACH PIER HAS BEEN CLOSED DUE TO HIGH SURF WITH AN
AVERAGE HEIGHT OF 5 TO 7 FOOT BREAKERS REPORTED.

&&

$$

SANDRIK

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181632
SWODY1
SPC AC 181630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL TX NE INTO THE WRN
OZARKS...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD MULTI-STREAM TROUGH OVER THE PLNS STATES WILL CONTINUE E INTO
THE MS VLY EARLY MON AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE RCKYS/GRT BASIN. TWO
IDENTIFIABLE VORT LOBES IN THE SRN PART OF THE TROUGH...ONE NOW OVER
NW OK/S CNTRL KS AND THE OTHER NOW NEAR FWD...LIKELY WILL AFFECT
TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY OVER PARTS OF THE S CNTRL U.S.

AT THE SFC...PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE COLD
FRONT THAT ATTM EXTENDS FROM E CNTRL KS SSW INTO W CNTRL TX.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL...HOWEVER...BE COMPROMISED BY THE
CONTINUING PRESENCE OF SEVERAL WEAK...SIMILARLY-ORIENTED WIND SHIFT
LINES...CONFLUENCE ZONES...AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AS FAR E AS THE ARKLATEX.

...CNTRL TX TO WRN OZARKS THIS AFTN/EVE...
SCTD BANDS/SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN LOW LVL
WAA ZONE WELL AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL MO SSW TO THE ARKLATEX
TODAY. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP ENE INTO THE MID/LWR MS VLY
THROUGH THE AFTN AND SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY SUB-SVR /GIVEN
COMPARATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR/...DESPITE SOME LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER SRN SECTIONS PROVIDED BY THE N TX UPR
IMPULSE.

FARTHER W...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN FAVORABLY MOIST AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT...WITH PW AROUND 1.50 INCHES AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S
F FROM CNTRL TX NE INTO SE KS/FAR SW MO...WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG
HEATING WILL OCCUR. COUPLED WITH 500 MB TEMPS OF MINUS 9 TO MINUS
11 C IN CORE OF UPR TROUGH...EXPECT SBCAPE TO RANGE FROM 1500 TO
2500 J/KG BY MID AFTN FROM SW MO TO CNTRL TX.

FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTN ALONG AN ARC EXTENDING
FROM SE KS/SW MO THROUGH ERN OK INTO N CNTRL TX AS OK/KS VORT LOBE
CONTINUES ESEWD. COUPLED WITH SFC HEATING...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A
BAND OF FAIRLY VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM SW MO THROUGH ERN OK
INTO CNTRL AND NE TX BY MID TO LATE AFTN.

GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND RICH LOW LVL MOISTURE...RELATIVELY
MODEST WIND FIELD /20-25 KT SW FLOW AT 850 MB VEERING TO 30 KT WLY
WINDS AT 500 MB/ SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED MULTICELL
CLUSTERS AND MARGINAL SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG
WINDS THE MAIN SVR THREAT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD MERGE INTO ONE
OR TWO LARGER BANDS WITH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS...ESPECIALLY IN
ERN OK/NERN TX.

THE OK STORMS SHOULD MOVE E INTO THE OZARKS AND ARKLATEX THIS
EVE...WHERE COMPARATIVELY WEAKER THERMODYNAMICS WILL EXIST. FARTHER
SW...THE ACTIVITY OVER CNTRL/N TX...MEANWHILE...SHOULD ULTIMATELY BE
UNDERCUT BY THE COLD FRONT. TOGETHER WITH THE LOSS OF SFC
HEATING...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE SVR
THREAT BY MID TO LATE EVE.

..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 09/18/2011

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KTOP [181422]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 181422
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
922 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0801 AM HEAVY RAIN CHAPMAN 38.97N 97.02W
09/18/2011 M2.15 INCH DICKINSON KS CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

JB

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KTOP [181422]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 181422
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
921 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN MELVERN 38.51N 95.64W
09/18/2011 M2.05 INCH OSAGE KS CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

JB

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KTOP [181251]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 181251
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
751 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0750 AM HEAVY RAIN ENTERPRISE 38.90N 97.12W
09/18/2011 M2.33 INCH DICKINSON KS CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

JB

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KTOP [181250]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 181250
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
750 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0750 AM HEAVY RAIN WHITE CITY 38.80N 96.74W
09/18/2011 M2.15 INCH MORRIS KS CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

JB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181247
SWODY1
SPC AC 181245

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN EXTREME SW MO/NW AR SWWD TO
CNTRL TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
DAYBREAK WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FULL-LATITUDE UPR TROUGH
SITUATED ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH NUMEROUS EMBEDDED IMPULSES.
STRONGEST OF SUCH DISTURBANCES WAS LOCATED OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
AND IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE INTO THE LWR/MID-MS RVR VLY REGION BY
LATE TONIGHT. 12Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A 1011 MB LOW SW OF KICT WITH
A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED FRONT SEWD INTO THE LWR MS RVR VLY. A CDFNT
WAS GAINING STRENGTH ACROSS NWRN OK AND THE TX PNHDL. THE LOW WILL
MIGRATE NEWD INTO ERN KS THIS AFTN WHILE WITH A WRMFNT DEVELOPING
ENE TOWARD THE OZARKS. THE CDFNT WILL SWEEP ESE INTO SW MO...ERN OK
AND CNTRL TX BY SUNSET...AND THE LWR OH VLY...CNTRL AR...TX HILL
COUNTRY BY 12Z MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR TSTMS...SOME
PSBLY SVR THIS AFTN/EVE.

...EXTREME SW MO/NW AR SWWD INTO CNTRL TX...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION/EMBEDDED TSTMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING FROM ERN
PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS/MID-MS VLY SWWD INTO N TX. ACTIVITY
APPEARS LARGELY TIED TO MID/LOW-LVL WARM ADVECTION REGIME WITHIN A
BROAD SWLY H85-H7 JET AXIS...FAVORING AREAS ALONG/N OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED NW-SE ORIENTED FRONT LOCATED JUST N OF THE RED RVR
VLY/ARKLATEX REGIONS. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD PROGRESS ENE
TOWARD THE MID/LWR MS VLY THROUGH THE MORNING AND REMAIN SUB-SVR.

TO THE W...BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS FAVORABLY MOIST AHEAD OF THE APCHG
CDFNT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LWR-MID 60S FROM EXTREME SW MO SWWD
INTO CNTRL TX. AMPLE AMOUNTS OF DIABATIC HEATING COMBINED WITH
STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES 7-7.5 DEG C PER KM/COOLING MID-LVL
TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD MLCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF
THE CDFNT THIS AFTN. STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PASS LARGELY
N OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS...BUT AT LEAST WEAK HEIGHT FALLS/CYCLONIC
CURVATURE WILL REACH AS FAR S AS NRN/CNTRL TX AND AID IN MID TO LATE
AFTN TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM SW MO...ERN OK INTO NCNTRL/CNTRL TX.

WLY H5 FLOW OF 30-35 KTS/STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL GENERALLY BE
CONFINED TO AREAS N OF THE RED RVR VLY WHERE MULTICELL STORMS MAY
ACHIEVE BRIEF SUPERCELL CHARACTER. DESPITE WEAKER FLOW FARTHER
S...MORE ROBUST DESTABILIZATION WILL ALSO LIKELY SUPPORT PULSE
STG-SVR MULTICELL STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY SVR THREATS IN THE STRONGER STORM CLUSTERS/LINEAR
SEGMENTS.

ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE OZARKS AND ARKLATEX REGIONS AMID
COMPARATIVELY WEAKER THERMODYNAMICS THIS EVE. FARTHER S...STORMS
ACROSS NRN/CNTRL TX WILL LIKELY BECOME UNDERCUT BY THE SURGING
CDFNT. IN ALL AREAS...THE SVR THREATS WILL DIMINISH BY MID/LATE
EVENING.

..RACY/COHEN.. 09/18/2011

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KOUN [181039]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KOUN 181039
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
538 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0435 PM HAIL AMORITA 36.92N 98.29W
09/17/2011 E1.00 INCH ALFALFA OK LAW ENFORCEMENT

RELAYED BY CHEROKEE PD

0450 PM HAIL 4 SE WOODWARD 36.39N 99.34W
09/17/2011 E1.00 INCH WOODWARD OK PUBLIC

0502 PM HAIL 1 S RETROP 35.16N 99.37W
09/17/2011 E1.25 INCH BECKHAM OK AMATEUR RADIO

0557 PM TORNADO 10 W MEDFORD 36.81N 97.91W
09/17/2011 GRANT OK TRAINED SPOTTER

TORNADO SPOTTED ONE MILE WEST OF REDHILL ROAD ALONG STATE
HIGHWAY 11. GRANT COUNTY SPOTTER REPORT RELAYED BY
GARFIELD COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER.

0605 PM TSTM WND GST 3 W GRANDFIELD 34.23N 98.74W
09/17/2011 M58.00 MPH TILLMAN OK MESONET

0605 PM TSTM WND GST 3 W GRANDFIELD 34.23N 98.74W
09/17/2011 M66.00 MPH TILLMAN OK MESONET

0615 PM TSTM WND GST GRANDFIELD 34.23N 98.69W
09/17/2011 E65.00 MPH TILLMAN OK PUBLIC

0615 PM HAIL GRANDFIELD 34.23N 98.69W
09/17/2011 E2.00 INCH TILLMAN OK PUBLIC

0655 PM TSTM WND GST BURKBURNETT 34.08N 98.56W
09/17/2011 E70.00 MPH WICHITA TX CO-OP OBSERVER

NUMEROUS LARGE TREE LIMBS AND POWER POLES DOWN

0710 PM TSTM WND GST 4 SSE BLACKWELL 36.75N 97.25W
09/17/2011 M62.00 MPH KAY OK MESONET

0710 PM TSTM WND GST SHEPPARD AFB 33.98N 98.50W
09/17/2011 M64.00 MPH WICHITA TX ASOS

0715 PM TSTM WND GST PONCA CITY 36.71N 97.09W
09/17/2011 M68.00 MPH KAY OK ASOS

0725 PM HAIL FAIRVIEW 36.27N 98.48W
09/17/2011 E2.00 INCH MAJOR OK LAW ENFORCEMENT

REPORTED BY FAIRVIEW PD

0735 PM HAIL CHARLIE 34.10N 98.32W
09/17/2011 E1.00 INCH CLAY TX CO-OP OBSERVER

0839 PM HAIL DRUMMOND 36.30N 98.04W
09/17/2011 E1.25 INCH GARFIELD OK TRAINED SPOTTER

0913 PM HAIL 4 SSE ENID 36.35N 97.85W
09/17/2011 E1.75 INCH GARFIELD OK TRAINED SPOTTER

RELAYED BY VANCE AFB

&&

$$

BURKE

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 180825
SWOD48
SPC AC 180825

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
DAY 4 /WEDNESDAY/ AND DAY 5 /THURSDAY/...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE PROVIDE SIMILAR LARGE SCALE SOLUTIONS SHOWING A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE
MS VALLEY. THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS PREDICTED TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS
QUEBEC TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES...WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE ERN US. ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GENERALLY WEAK
INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE WARM SECTOR ARE
EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT.

DAY 6 /FRIDAY/ THROUGH DAY 8 /SUNDAY/...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
INCREASING SPREAD IN PREDICTIONS OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN. THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND SOME GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE THE GFS DETERMINISTIC AND OTHER ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS DEVELOP A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY.
THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT MOVING OVER PARTS OF THE ERN STATES...BUT CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE SEVERE THREAT OWING TO THE LARGE VARIANCE
IN THE PREDICTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION.

..WEISS.. 09/18/2011

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 180650
SWODY3
SPC AC 180649

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY ON TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE... AN
OCCLUDED LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS MN...WITH A COLD FRONT
ARCING SWD FROM THE LOW AND PROGRESSING EWD/SEWD FROM THE WRN GREAT
LAKES AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.

...WI AREA...
LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW COUPLED WITH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION TO SPREAD EWD DURING THE PERIOD. MOISTURE RETURN INTO
PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIMITED...WITH MODELS INDICATING A
NARROW BAND OF SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY
COLD FRONT. A PLUME OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD EWD/NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...AND THIS WILL AID IN DEVELOPING AN AXIS OF MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE OF 250-500 J/KG IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW-TOPPED STORMS /INCLUDING LINE SEGMENTS/
TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM PARTS OF UPPER MI INTO
WI DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE SWD EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT...WITH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING STORMS
FORMING AS FAR SOUTH AS ERN IA/NWRN IL. STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO VEER WITH HEIGHT WHICH WILL ENHANCE STORM
ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY. STRONGER CELLS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY
WEAK INSTABILITY.

..WEISS.. 09/18/2011

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 180537
SWODY2
SPC AC 180536

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT INDICATING FULL-LATITUDE
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGIONS. A STRONGER MORE COMPACT UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES ACROSS MT AND THE DAKOTAS.

AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS A
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY/MID SOUTH AND SERN TX. A SECOND SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN OVER ND DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE PERIOD...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT ACCELERATES EWD/SEWD ACROSS
THE NRN PARTS OF THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS.

...SERN MT INTO SRN ND/NRN SD...
A STRONGLY DYNAMIC UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DIGGING MID/UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM MT INTO THE DAKOTAS DURING
THE PERIOD. INTENSE DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE JET STREAK COUPLED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOCUSED ASCENT WITHIN
A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT /MAXIMUM SBCAPE OF 250-500 J PER
KG/. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITHIN A WELL-MIXED PBL ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...WHERE LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF
STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY WIND THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF SERN MT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SPREAD EWD INTO PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AT NIGHT.
MINIMAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A GREATER SEVERE THREAT
ATTM.

...OH VALLEY ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING NEAR THE EWD MOVING
COLD FRONT WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO INHIBIT
DIABATIC HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT DESTABILIZATION. BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER MAY DEVELOP OVER LOCALIZED AREAS WHERE MLCAPE MAY
INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG...HOWEVER MODEST LAPSE RATES WITHIN A
MOIST ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL UPDRAFT INTENSITY. ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS MAY OCCUR BUT WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND MINIMAL VERTICAL
SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

..WEISS.. 09/18/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 180531
SWODY1
SPC AC 180529

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN KS/SWRN MO INTO CNTRL
TX...

...SERN KS/SWRN MO TO CNTRL TX...

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY SUPPORTS LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE EWD PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE IS MOVING EAST AT
ROUGHLY 30KT WHICH WOULD PLACE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE KS/MO
BORDER...SSWWD INTO CNTRL TX BY 18Z. ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARY WILL
ACTUALLY LAG THE UPPER TROUGH BY UP TO 100MI BY EARLY AFTERNOON THUS
NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE SLGT RISK WARM SECTOR AS
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO FULLY DESTABILIZE. GIVEN THE
EWD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH IT APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL PROVE
INSTRUMENTAL IN POTENTIAL ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

PRIOR TO THIS EVOLUTION SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
NOTED WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS KS/MO...SWWD INTO
PORTIONS OF NCNTRL TX. THIS EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY WILL LIMIT THE
EWD EXTENT OF THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY TO THAT REGION
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. FOR THIS REASON HAVE OPTED TO
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM SERN KS/SWRN MO
INTO CNTRL TX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE MAY
EVOLVE BY 21Z ACROSS THIS REGION WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE JUST
STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A RISK FOR ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS AS
SFC-6KM SHEAR WILL LIKELY ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 25-30KT. EVEN
SO...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGEST STORMS FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

..DARROW/ROGERS.. 09/18/2011

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 851

WWUS20 KWNS 180403
SEL1
SPC WW 180403
OKZ000-TXZ000-180400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 851
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 851 ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

OKLAHOMA
TEXAS

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 850

WWUS20 KWNS 180403
SEL0
SPC WW 180403
KSZ000-OKZ000-180400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 850
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 850 ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

KANSAS
OKLAHOMA

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KICT [180402]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 180402
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1102 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1101 PM HAIL 7 N INMAN 38.33N 97.77W
09/17/2011 E0.75 INCH MCPHERSON KS TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

RBL

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KFWD [180343]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 180343
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1042 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1025 PM TSTM WND DMG MONTAGUE 33.67N 97.72W
09/17/2011 MONTAGUE TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

6 TO 8 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS DOWN IN THE CITY OF
MONTAGUE

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2187

ACUS11 KWNS 180318
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180317
OKZ000-TXZ000-180445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2187
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1017 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX INTO OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 850...851...

VALID 180317Z - 180445Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
850...851...CONTINUES.

STORMS OVER NRN OK MERGED INTO AN MCS...AND CONTINUE TO SURGE SEWD
INTO A MUCH COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS. A SLY LOW LEVEL JET IS
HELPING TO MAINTAIN AN ELEVATED FEED OF MOISTURE...WITH STORM CORES
THE STRONGEST ON THE WRN FRINGE OF THIS CLUSTER. LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE WRN CELLS.

TO THE S...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS PERSIST NEAR THE RED RIVER. THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE BETTER ACCESS TO THE WARM SECTOR AND MAY PERSIST
FOR A COUPLE HOURS WITH A LARGE HAIL THREAT.

OVERALL...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED WITH
MAINLY HAIL...AND THE WATCHES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 04Z.

..JEWELL.. 09/18/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 34169562 33259663 33179773 33509809 34759760 36439757
36699597 36249523 35619475 35159504 34169562

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KDDC [172209]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 172209
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
509 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM HAIL 6 SW SUN CITY 37.31N 98.98W
09/17/2011 E0.88 INCH BARBER KS PUBLIC

&&

$$

06

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KOUN [172205]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 172205
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
505 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0502 PM HAIL 1 S RETROP 35.16N 99.37W
09/17/2011 E1.25 INCH BECKHAM OK AMATEUR RADIO

&&

$$

FM

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KOUN [172155]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 172155
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
455 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0450 PM HAIL 4 SE WOODWARD 36.39N 99.34W
09/17/2011 E1.00 INCH WOODWARD OK PUBLIC

&&

$$

FM

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KDDC [172154]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 172154
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
454 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0450 PM HAIL 7 ESE BUTTERMILK 37.08N 99.22W
09/17/2011 M0.75 INCH COMANCHE KS PUBLIC

&&

$$

06

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2185

ACUS11 KWNS 172149
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172149
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-172245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2185
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0449 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...NEB PANHANDLE...FAR NWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 172149Z - 172245Z

A MARGINAL THREAT FOR HAIL/STRONG WINDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NERN CO...NEB PANHANDLE...AND INTO FAR NWRN KS. A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TRAVERSING
EWD ACROSS N-CNTRL CO AND S-CNTRL WY. INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE IS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS...WHERE A PLUME OF MID-50S DEWPOINTS IS IN PLACE TO THE E OF
A STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE /ANALYZED FROM 30 W ITR TO 25 SE BFF AS
OF 21Z/. ALTHOUGH SCT CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN PERSISTENT FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY /PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE/...TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 70S AND HAS ALLOWED THE AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE
SUFFICIENTLY /MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG/ TO SUPPORT
INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE. MODEST MIDLEVEL FLOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
COMBINED WITH A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY ONLY
YIELD A LOW-END/ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL/STRONG WINDS...WHICH WILL
PROBABLY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

..ROGERS.. 09/17/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 39760182 39230159 38890198 38880283 39160312 40190376
41320392 41980350 42130305 41880219 41420157 40260183
39760182

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KDDC [172146]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 172146
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
446 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0425 PM HAIL 1 ENE AETNA 37.09N 98.95W
09/17/2011 M1.00 INCH BARBER KS PUBLIC

&&

$$

06

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KOUN [172141]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 172141
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
441 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0435 PM HAIL AMORITA 36.92N 98.29W
09/17/2011 E1.00 INCH ALFALFA OK LAW ENFORCEMENT

RELAYED BY CHEROKEE PD

&&

$$

FM

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KGJT [172126]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 172126
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
326 PM MDT SAT SEP 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0323 PM FLASH FLOOD ARCHES NP 38.62N 109.62W
09/17/2011 GRAND UT PARK/FOREST SRVC

WATER LEVELS DOWN TO 31 INCHES ACROSS LOW WATER
CROSSINGS ALONG THE SALT WASH WITHIN ARCHES NATIONAL
PARK.

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1100531

$$

JDC

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KGLD [172123]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 172123
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
323 PM MDT SAT SEP 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0255 PM HAIL 17 S SEIBERT 39.06N 102.86W
09/17/2011 E0.75 INCH KIT CARSON CO PUBLIC

THE PUBLIC ALSO REPORTED A HAIL DEPTH OF AT LEAST ONE
INCH.

&&

$$

050

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KDDC [172118]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 172118
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
418 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0415 PM HAIL 7 S WILMORE 37.23N 99.19W
09/17/2011 E0.75 INCH COMANCHE KS PUBLIC

&&

$$

06

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 851

WWUS20 KWNS 172022
SEL1
SPC WW 172022
OKZ000-TXZ000-180400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 851
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS...WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.7 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF CLINTON OKLAHOMA TO 130 MILES SOUTH OF CHILDRESS
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 850...

DISCUSSION...SCTD TSTMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUSTAINED MULTICELLS AND
POSSIBLY A SUPERCELL OR TWO WITH SVR WIND/HAIL...EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG CONFLUENCE LINES ALONG AND E OF DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH NOW ARCING
THROUGH PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND W CNTRL TX. WHILE MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN...THE STORMS MAY RECEIVE SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM CONTINUING RETURN OF RICH LOW LVL MOISTURE AND
EXPECTED STRENGTHENING OF SSWLY LLJ THIS EVE. SOME OF THE STORMS IN
THE NRN PART OF THE WATCH MAY EVOLVE INTO A SMALL MCS TNGT...WITH A
CONTINUING A THREAT FOR ISOLD SVR WIND/HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.7 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25025.

...CORFIDI

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171958
SWODY1
SPC AC 171956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

VALID 172000Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS...

...WEST CENTRAL TO NW TX...AND NWD TO SW-SOUTH CENTRAL KS...
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED A ZONE OF MODERATE
TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2000-3000 J PER KG/ EXTENDING
GENERALLY ALONG AND W OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN OK AND TX. GIVEN 1/
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER INSTABILITY FARTHER S...2/ A SIMILAR
INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR INTO WEST CENTRAL TX AND 3/ RECENT
INCREASE IN CU INVOF SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CHILDRESS TX
AREA TO 25 N MAF...THE SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN EXTENDED SSWWD INTO
WEST CENTRAL TX. OTHERWISE...THE AFTERNOON INCREASE IN CU FIELD
OVER THE NERN TX PANHANDLE INTO NWRN OK AND SEWD ACROSS N CENTRAL OK
INVOF A WARM FRONT APPEARS TO BE THE START OF NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
ASIDE FROM NEW EXTENSION OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...THE PREVIOUS
OUTLOOK REMAINS ON TRACK WITH DAY 1 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE DETAILS FOR THE SRN PLAINS ARE AVAILABLE IN SPC
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS #2183 AND #2184.

ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SRH 200-300 M2/S2 PER OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES/ INVOF A WNW-ESE ORIENTED WARM FRONT MOVING NWD ACROSS NRN
OK THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A FAVORED ZONE FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL.
THIS THREAT WILL SPREAD INTO SRN KS ATTENDANT TO THE NWD MOVING WARM
FRONT/INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...AND THUS HAVE EXTENDED
THE 5% TORNADO PROBABILITY AREA FARTHER E ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS
AND NORTH CENTRAL OK.

...GENERAL TSTM FORECAST IN E TX...
GIVEN RECENT TRENDS IN CONVECTION WITH SOME TSTM ACTIVITY TO THE
E/NE OF GLS/HOU...THE GENERAL TSTM LINE /10 PERCENT PROBABILITY/ HAS
BEEN EXPANDED EWD ACROSS MUCH OF E TX.

..PETERS.. 09/17/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011/

...SYNOPSIS...
FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE...PROGRESSIVE...MULTI-STREAM PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH SUN. BAND OF ENHANCED FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE SRN RCKYS ENE ACROSS SRN HALF OF THE PLNS WILL
REMAIN THE MAIN UPR JET OF NOTE AS FAR AS SVR TSTMS ARE CONCERNED.

AT LWR LVLS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE CO
RCKYS...TIED LARGELY TO THE ABOVE-MENTIONED UPR JET...SHOULD REMAIN
QSTNRY OR DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY E/SE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE
ANTECEDENT SFC RIDGE CONTINUES TO WITHDRAW TO THE E/NE.

...SRN PLNS THIS AFTN THROUGH TNGT...
IMPULSES IN THE SRN STREAM JET WILL ONCE AGAIN MODULATE TSTM
DEVELOPMENT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SFC HEATING AND LLJ
INFLUENCES...OVER THE SRN PLNS THIS PERIOD. TSTMS WITH LEAD IMPULSE
NOW IN ERN KS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER TODAY AS THAT DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES EWD INTO MO. BY LATE THIS AFTN...SFC HEATING IN SE
QUADRANT OF SW KS SFC LOW...AND THE APPROACH OF UPSTREAM IMPULSE NOW
OVER NE NM/SE CO...SHOULD SUPPORT THE INITIATION OF NEW STORMS OVER
PARTS OF SW/S CNTRL KS AND NW OK.

CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS AND THE 12Z RAOB DATA...ESPECIALLY 850 MB
DEWPOINTS OF 17-18C AT BOTH MAF AND AMA... SUGGEST THAT SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE INFLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW HALF OF OK AND SW/S
CNTRL KS TODAY. COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY COOL MID LVL TEMPS ALONG
AND N OF SRN STREAM JET...AMPLE INSTABILITY /SBCAPE TO 2000 J PER
KG/ LIKELY WILL DEVELOP TO SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS. WITH 25-30 KT
WLY MID LVL FLOW...SETUP SHOULD YIELD A FEW SUSTAINED
STORMS/SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND.
TORNADOES ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR PERSISTENT BACKED LOW LVL WINDS E/SE OF SW KS
SFC LOW. MORE WIDELY SCTD STORMS MAY DEVELOP SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE
AFTN SW ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE INTO W CNTRL AND PERHAPS SW TX.

THE STORMS IN WRN/NRN OK AND SRN KS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO ONE OR TWO
MCSS TNGT/EARLY SUN AS MOIST SSWLY LLJ OVER REGION STRENGTHENS BOTH
DIURNALLY...AND IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPR
DISTURBANCE NOW OVER UT/CO. EMBEDDED STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SPORADIC HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND.

...CNTRL HI PLNS THIS AFTN/EVE...
A SEPARATE AREA OF STRONG TO ISOLD SVR TSTMS MAY EVOLVE THIS AFTN
OVER ERN CO...ALONG WRN EDGE OF LOW LVL CLOUD FIELD AND IN
COMPARATIVELY MODEST DEEP FLOW FARTHER N OF SRN STREAM JET.
STEEPENING LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG
LEE TROUGH COULD SUPPORT SCTD STORMS WITH HAIL AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF
TORNADO.

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2184

ACUS11 KWNS 171939
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171938
TXZ000-OKZ000-172115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2184
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/SWRN OK...ERN TX
PANHANDLE...NWRN/WRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 171938Z - 172115Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WRN/SWRN OK...THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND NWRN/WRN TX DURING MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE
NEEDED.

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A WARM
FRONT LIFTING TOWARD NRN OK...WITH RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
/DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S/ ADVECTING NWD ACROSS N-CNTRL TX
INTO CNTRL OK. SURFACE CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDS SWD FROM THE WARM
FRONT...LOCATED NEAR THE OK/TX PANHANDLE BORDER INTO NWRN/WRN
TX...AND IS AIDING IN SHARPENING A DRYLINE. IN ADDITION...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING THROUGH THE 80S TO AROUND 90 ALONG AND W OF
THE DRYLINE...WHICH IS RESULTING IN STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION AND TOWERING CUMULUS GROWTH ALONG THE DRYLINE.
THOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE RATHER WEAK THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...CONVERGENCE AND CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE
DRYLINE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
BY 22Z. COMBINATION OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 7 C PER
KM/ AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY YIELD MLCAPE VALUES
NEAR 3000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING. THE STRONG INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH
MODERATE MIDLEVEL SWLYS /NEAR 30 KT/ OVERSPREADING 20 KT LOW-LEVEL
SLYS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND PROFILES FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY SVR WEATHER THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..GARNER.. 09/17/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON 35489815 34539766 33399820 32319963 32030105 32830193
35749983 35489815

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 850

WWUS20 KWNS 171936
SEL0
SPC WW 171936
KSZ000-OKZ000-180400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 850
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
230 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 230 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
ENID OKLAHOMA TO 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF DODGE CITY KANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO NEAR
INTERSECTION OF DRY LINE/CONFLUENCE ZONE ARCING EWD ACROSS FAR ERN
PARTS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLE...AND WNW-ESE ORIENTED OUTFLOW
BNDRY/WARM FRONT OVER NRN OK. IN THIS AREA...COMBINATION OF SFC
HEATING...CONTINUED LOW LVL MOISTURE INFLOW /AVERAGE DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPR 60S F/...AND WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH UPR IMPULSE NOW OVER SW KS EXPECTED TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE
REGION. AREA VWP DATA AND FCST WIND FIELDS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SUPERCELLS...ENHANCING THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND.
TORNADOES ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY WITH ANY STORMS THAT MOVE
MORE OR LESS PARALLEL TO/IN TANDEM WITH OUTFLOW BNDRY/WARM FRONT.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27020.

...CORFIDI

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2183

ACUS11 KWNS 171903
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171902
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-172030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2183
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SW/S CNTRL KS AND WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 171902Z - 172030Z

A WATCH LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

INSOLATION AND A LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE...CHARACTERIZED
BY MID 60S+ F SURFACE DEW POINTS...ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE TO
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGHING SHIFTING EAST OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WHILE MIGRATING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF
THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IT
APPEARS THAT AN AREA OF AT LEAST WEAK MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL OVERSPREAD STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WARM
ADVECTION ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WHICH PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THIS WILL OCCUR BY THE 20-22Z TIME
FRAME...ROUGHLY IN AN AREA BOUNDED BY GAGE...ENID AND MEDICINE
LODGE. VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION IS STILL FAIRLY
MODEST...BUT BACKING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A 30-40 KT WESTERLY 500 MB JET
STREAK...SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.

..KERR.. 09/17/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON 35729973 36159987 37110032 37520028 37739998 37739905
37559775 37199722 36789691 35509783 35329897 35729973

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KTFX [171851]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KTFX 171851
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1251 PM MDT SAT SEP 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
09/17/2011 M53 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

53 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DEEP CREEK RAWS LOCATION.

1100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 WSW SAINT MARY 48.69N 113.71W
09/17/2011 M67 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

67 MPH WIND GUST AT LOGAN PASS.

1200 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 WSW SAINT MARY 48.69N 113.71W
09/17/2011 M58 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

58 MPH WIND GUST AT LOGAN PASS.

1215 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 WSW SAINT MARY 48.69N 113.71W
09/17/2011 E55 MPH GLACIER MT LAW ENFORCEMENT

ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS NEAR 55 MPH AT LOGAN PASS.

&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [171850]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 171850
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1250 PM MDT SAT SEP 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
09/17/2011 M53 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

53 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DEEP CREEK RAWS LOCATION.

&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [171849]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 171849
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1249 PM MDT SAT SEP 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1215 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 WSW SAINT MARY 48.69N 113.71W
09/17/2011 E55 MPH GLACIER MT LAW ENFORCEMENT

ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS NEAR 55 MPH AT LOGAN PASS.

&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [171848]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 171848
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1248 PM MDT SAT SEP 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 WSW SAINT MARY 48.69N 113.71W
09/17/2011 M58 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

58 MPH WIND GUST AT LOGAN PASS.

&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [171847]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 171847
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1247 PM MDT SAT SEP 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 WSW SAINT MARY 48.69N 113.71W
09/17/2011 M67 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

67 MPH WIND GUST AT LOGAN PASS.

&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KVEF [171819]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KVEF 171819
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1119 AM PDT SAT SEP 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0208 PM HAIL BOULDER CITY 35.98N 114.83W
09/16/2011 E0.75 INCH CLARK NV LAW ENFORCEMENT

SPOTTERS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORT LARGE AMOUNT OF HAIL
FROM PEA TO AROUND DIME SIZE FALLING IN BOULDER CITY.

0212 PM HEAVY RAIN BOULDER CITY 35.98N 114.83W
09/16/2011 M0.67 INCH CLARK NV TRAINED SPOTTER

CCRFCD GAUGE REPORTS 0.67 INCHES OF RAIN IN 30 MINUTES
ENDING AT 205 PM AT VETERANS DETENTION BASIN. SPOTTER IN
BOULDER CITY REPORTS WATER PILING UP ON THE EDGE OF
HIGHWAY 93...WITH WATER PONDED UP TO THE CURBS. RIGHT
LANE IMPASSABLE.

0229 PM FLASH FLOOD BOULDER CITY 35.98N 114.83W
09/16/2011 CLARK NV LAW ENFORCEMENT

BOULDER CITY POLICE REPORTS NUMEROUS CITY STREETS WITH
MORE THAN SIX INCHES OF WATER FLOWING ACROSS THEM. THE
WORST RUNOFF IS OCCURING AT THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY
93 AT THE BUCHANAN INTERSECTION.

0441 PM HAIL PIOCHE 37.93N 114.45W
09/16/2011 E0.75 INCH LINCOLN NV LAW ENFORCEMENT

LARGE AMOUNT OF PEA TO AROUND PENNY SIZE HAIL FELL IN
PIOCHE FROM 420 TO 430.

0635 PM HEAVY RAIN 8 SW URSINE 37.90N 114.30W
09/16/2011 E0.00 INCH LINCOLN NV LAW ENFORCEMENT

COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTED A LITTLE WATER OVER THE ROADWAY
ON DRY VALLEY ROAD.

0635 PM FLASH FLOOD 6 WSW URSINE 37.96N 114.30W
09/16/2011 LINCOLN NV LAW ENFORCEMENT

COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTED DEBRIS OVER THE ROAD ON SR 322
NEAR MILE MARKER 10. IN ADDITION SMALL HAIL COVERED THE
ROAD.

0712 PM FLASH FLOOD 6 WSW URSINE 37.96N 114.30W
09/16/2011 LINCOLN NV LAW ENFORCEMENT

THE COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTED SIGNIFICANT WATER OVER THE
ROADWAY ON SR 322 NEAR MILE MARKER 10. DEPTH UKNOWN.

0855 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 N PANACA 37.80N 114.38W
09/16/2011 LINCOLN NV LAW ENFORCEMENT

LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED 3 TO 4 INCHES OF MUD AND WATER
RUNNING THROUGH THE CATHEDRAL GORGE STATE PARK
CAMPGROUND. THE WATER AND MUD CHASED ABOUT 20 PEOPLE WHO
WERE CAMPING OUT OF THEIR TENTS. THE WATER AND MUD FLOW
WAS ESTIMATED TO BE 75 FEET ACROSS. NO INJURIES WERE
REPORTED.

0855 PM FLASH FLOOD NW PANACA 37.78N 114.38W
09/16/2011 LINCOLN NV LAW ENFORCEMENT

LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED 2 TO 3 INCHES OF WATER AND
DEBRIS FLOWING OVER U.S. 93 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 108 AND
109. THE ROAD WAS STILL PASSABLE AT THE TIME.

&&
THIS IS A LIST OF REPORTS FROM FRIDAY.
$$

VEF STAFF

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KVEF [171817]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 171817
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1117 AM PDT SAT SEP 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 PM LIGHTNING ANTHEM 35.96N 115.09W
09/10/2011 CLARK NV BROADCAST MEDIA

LIGHTNING STRUCK A HOME IN ANTHEM AND DAMAGED A SMALL
AREA OF THE EXTERIOR OF THE HOME. EVENT TIME IS AN
ESTIMATE.

0900 AM LIGHTNING 7 W TWENTYNINE PALMS 34.14N 116.18W
09/13/2011 SAN BERNARDINO CA NEWSPAPER

LIGHTNING STRUCK A POWER LINE NEAR ROUTE 62 AND DORTH
PLACE KNOCKING OUT POWER TO 7,000 CUSTOMERS.

&&
DELAYED REPORTS.
$$

STACHELSKI

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KJAX [171742]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 171742
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
142 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0919 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SSW FORT CAROLINE 30.36N 81.51W
09/17/2011 M7.05 INCH DUVAL FL CO-OP OBSERVER

HEAVY RAINFALL OF 7.05 INCHE REPORTED BY FORMER NWS
EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

AWALKER

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KJAX [171732]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KJAX 171732
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
132 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0919 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 WSW MAYPORT 30.37N 81.49W
09/17/2011 M7.50 INCH DUVAL FL NWS EMPLOYEE

REPORTED RAINFALL OF 7.50 INCHES IN FT CAROLINE AREA
REPORTED BY NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

AWALKER

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 171730
SWODY2
SPC AC 171729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
TX...CENTRAL OK TO SERN KS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE/RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW
REGIME PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS TO ADJACENT PART OF SRN
CANADA. THIS PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN EASTWARD-MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH UNDERGOING A DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION OVER THE NRN
EXTENT OF THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/
NORTHERN ONTARIO. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH AXIS WITH EMBEDDED VORTICITY
MAXIMA /OVER NRN UT/SWRN WY AND NRN AZ TODAY/ WILL ADVANCE EWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY 2 FORECAST PERIOD.

IN THE LOW LEVELS AT 12Z SUNDAY...A GENERALLY N-S ORIENTED SURFACE
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN
TRAIL SWWD INTO W TX. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE EWD ON SUNDAY
ATTENDANT TO THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

...PARTS OF CENTRAL TX...CENTRAL OK INTO SERN KS...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE GREATER FOR A FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING INVOF THE I-44
CORRIDOR IN OK INTO SERN KS...AND GENERALLY W OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
IN CENTRAL TX. THUS...A RELATIVELY NARROW SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN
ADDED TO THE DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

LATEST TRENDS IN 12Z MODELS SUGGEST A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY/STRONGER SURFACE HEATING ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN EXTENT
OF THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK AREA INVOF THE SLOW EWD ADVANCING SURFACE
FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM ERN KS SSWWD THROUGH
CENTRAL OK TO NW-WEST CENTRAL TX TO THE TX BIG BEND REGION BY MID
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DESTABILIZATION WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS /PW
VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCH/ IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MODERATE
INSTABILITY ALONG AND E OF THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ANY STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN THE INITIAL DAY
2 OUTLOOK /20-30 KT/...THE DEGREE OF FORECAST INSTABILITY AND TIMING
OF FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUGGEST STORMS
SHOULD FORM INVOF THE SURFACE FRONT. MULTICELLS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
STORM MODE WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS. THIS SCENARIO FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY MOST MODEL DATA...
INCLUDING A MAJORITY OF THE SREF MEMBERS. WHILE CONVECTION AND
EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST EWD THROUGH THE EVENING/SUNDAY
NIGHT TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY TO ERN OK...WEAKENING INSTABILITY
SHOULD SUPPORT A DIMINISHING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AFTER DARK.

..OZARKS TO LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS...
LOW LEVEL WAA IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT CONVECTION/CLOUDINESS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF STRONGER
STORMS. HOWEVER...OVERALL WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
POTENTIAL WITH NEWD EXTENT.

..PETERS.. 09/17/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171631
SWODY1
SPC AC 171630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL
PLNS...

...SYNOPSIS...
FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE...PROGRESSIVE...MULTI-STREAM PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH SUN. BAND OF ENHANCED FLOW
EXTENDING FROM THE SRN RCKYS ENE ACROSS SRN HALF OF THE PLNS WILL
REMAIN THE MAIN UPR JET OF NOTE AS FAR AS SVR TSTMS ARE CONCERNED.

AT LWR LVLS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE CO
RCKYS...TIED LARGELY TO THE ABOVE-MENTIONED UPR JET...SHOULD REMAIN
QSTNRY OR DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY E/SE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LARGE
ANTECEDENT SFC RIDGE CONTINUES TO WITHDRAW TO THE E/NE.

...SRN PLNS THIS AFTN THROUGH TNGT...
IMPULSES IN THE SRN STREAM JET WILL ONCE AGAIN MODULATE TSTM
DEVELOPMENT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SFC HEATING AND LLJ
INFLUENCES...OVER THE SRN PLNS THIS PERIOD. TSTMS WITH LEAD IMPULSE
NOW IN ERN KS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER TODAY AS THAT DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES EWD INTO MO. BY LATE THIS AFTN...SFC HEATING IN SE
QUADRANT OF SW KS SFC LOW...AND THE APPROACH OF UPSTREAM IMPULSE NOW
OVER NE NM/SE CO...SHOULD SUPPORT THE INITIATION OF NEW STORMS OVER
PARTS OF SW/S CNTRL KS AND NW OK.

CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS AND THE 12Z RAOB DATA...ESPECIALLY 850 MB
DEWPOINTS OF 17-18C AT BOTH MAF AND AMA... SUGGEST THAT SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE INFLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW HALF OF OK AND SW/S
CNTRL KS TODAY. COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY COOL MID LVL TEMPS ALONG
AND N OF SRN STREAM JET...AMPLE INSTABILITY /SBCAPE TO 2000 J PER
KG/ LIKELY WILL DEVELOP TO SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS. WITH 25-30 KT
WLY MID LVL FLOW...SETUP SHOULD YIELD A FEW SUSTAINED
STORMS/SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND.
TORNADOES ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR PERSISTENT BACKED LOW LVL WINDS E/SE OF SW KS
SFC LOW. MORE WIDELY SCTD STORMS MAY DEVELOP SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE
AFTN SW ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE INTO W CNTRL AND PERHAPS SW TX.

THE STORMS IN WRN/NRN OK AND SRN KS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO ONE OR TWO
MCSS TNGT/EARLY SUN AS MOIST SSWLY LLJ OVER REGION STRENGTHENS BOTH
DIURNALLY...AND IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPR
DISTURBANCE NOW OVER UT/CO. EMBEDDED STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SPORADIC HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND.

...CNTRL HI PLNS THIS AFTN/EVE...
A SEPARATE AREA OF STRONG TO ISOLD SVR TSTMS MAY EVOLVE THIS AFTN
OVER ERN CO...ALONG WRN EDGE OF LOW LVL CLOUD FIELD AND IN
COMPARATIVELY MODEST DEEP FLOW FARTHER N OF SRN STREAM JET.
STEEPENING LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG
LEE TROUGH COULD SUPPORT SCTD STORMS WITH HAIL AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF
TORNADO.

..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 09/17/2011

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KLKN [171532]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KLKN 171532
LSRLKN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
831 AM PDT SAT SEP 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM FLASH FLOOD 20 ESE HICKISON SUMMIT 39.32N 116.38W
09/16/2011 EUREKA NV TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED RIVERS RUNNING THROUGH THEIR PROPERTY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATER IN THE EVENING THEY ATTEMPTED
TO DRIVE TO EUREKA BUT ANTELOPE VALLEY ROAD WAS COVERED
IN WATER.

&&

$$

RCM

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KPIH [171516]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 171516
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
915 AM MDT SAT SEP 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0912 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 W VICTOR 43.60N 111.13W
09/17/2011 M0.30 INCH TETON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

24-HOUR TOTAL

0912 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 E ASHTON 44.07N 111.42W
09/17/2011 M0.49 INCH FREMONT ID TRAINED SPOTTER

24-HOUR TOTAL

0912 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 SSE GRACE 42.50N 111.68W
09/17/2011 M0.55 INCH CARIBOU ID TRAINED SPOTTER

24-HOUR TOTAL

&&

$$

PANGEL

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KPIH [171516]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 171516
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
915 AM MDT SAT SEP 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0912 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 W VICTOR 43.60N 111.13W
09/17/2011 M0.30 INCH TETON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

24-HOUR TOTAL

0912 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 W VICTOR 43.60N 111.13W
09/17/2011 M0.30 INCH TETON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

24-HOUR TOTAL

0912 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 E ASHTON 44.07N 111.42W
09/17/2011 M0.49 INCH FREMONT ID TRAINED SPOTTER

24-HOUR TOTAL

0912 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 SSE GRACE 42.50N 111.68W
09/17/2011 M0.55 INCH CARIBOU ID TRAINED SPOTTER

24-HOUR TOTAL

&&

$$

PANGEL

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KSLC [171509]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 171509
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
909 AM MDT SAT SEP 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0844 AM FLASH FLOOD 10 SE TORREY 38.20N 111.29W
09/17/2011 WAYNE UT PARK/FOREST SRVC

NATIONAL PARK SERVICE IN CAPITAL REEF REPORTED FLASH
FLOODING IN THREE PLACES ACROSS WAYNE COUNTY SOUTHEAST OF
TORREY. SULPHUR CREEK THAT RUNS INTO THE FREEMONT RIVER
HAD WATER 3 FEET DEEP IN THE CHANNEL. SHEETS GULCH AND
DOG WATER CREEK WERE ALSO REPORTED RUNNING WITH LESS THAN
A FOOT OF WATER ON THE ROAD. THE NOTOM ROAD WAS NOT
DRIVEABLE THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

PTAMRAKA

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KDDC [171434]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KDDC 171434
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
933 AM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1036 PM HAIL 8 SSE TICE 37.41N 100.64W
09/16/2011 E1.00 INCH MEADE KS PUBLIC

&&

$$

MSCOTT

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KJAX [171325]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 171325
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
925 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0919 AM HEAVY RAIN ARLINGTON 30.34N 81.60W
09/17/2011 M7.50 INCH DUVAL FL NWS EMPLOYEE

REPORTED RAINFALL OF 7.50 INCHES IN ARLINGTON AREA
REPORTED BY NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

AWALKER

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KKEY [171312]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 171312
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
911 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM FUNNEL CLOUD 5 E KEY LARGO 25.11N 80.36W
09/17/2011 GMZ042 FL PUBLIC

AT 900 AM LOCAL, THE PUBLIC REPORTED MULTIPLE FUNNEL
CLOUDS ALONG A CLOUD LINE ABOUT 5 MILES EAST OF KEY LARGO
NEAR MILE MARKER 102. THE FUNNEL CLOUDS WERE
APPROXIMATELY HALF WAY TO THE SURFACE AND MOVING TOWARDS
THE WEST BETWEEN 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

$$

ULRICH

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KDDC [171258]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KDDC 171258
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
757 AM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0501 PM HAIL 5 S RICHFIELD 37.19N 101.77W
09/16/2011 E0.88 INCH MORTON KS PUBLIC

0542 PM HAIL ROLLA 37.12N 101.63W
09/16/2011 E0.88 INCH MORTON KS TRAINED SPOTTER

THE CALLER ALSO REPORTED 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN 20
MINUTES, ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED AT 45 MPH.
STREETS IN ROLLA WERE FLOODING AND A FEW BARRACADES HAD
BEEN PUT UP IN ROLLA.

0543 PM HAIL 3 NNW ROLLA 37.16N 101.65W
09/16/2011 E0.75 INCH MORTON KS PUBLIC

0925 PM HAIL 16 ESE ULYSSES 37.49N 101.09W
09/16/2011 E1.00 INCH HASKELL KS PUBLIC

1012 PM HAIL 5 W SUBLETTE 37.48N 100.94W
09/16/2011 E1.00 INCH HASKELL KS PUBLIC

HAIL REPORTED FROM PEA TO QUARTER SIZED.

1036 PM HAIL 19 WNW MEADE 37.39N 100.66W
09/16/2011 E1.00 INCH SEWARD KS PUBLIC

&&

$$

MSCOTT

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171249
SWODY1
SPC AC 171247

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS...

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
A LEAD...LOW-AMPLITUDE...MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CNTRL KS HAS ENHANCED THE LLJ /40-45 KTS/ EARLY THIS MORNING.
ELEVATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE OUT OF OK/KS AND INTO WRN
MO AND NRN AR THROUGH MID-MORNING WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND
OWING TO THE DECREASE/BACKING OF THE LLVL FLOW.

PROGRESSIVE UPR FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH ANOTHER
FORMIDABLE IMPULSE EJECTING EWD FROM WRN CO/NWRN NM EWD TO THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS BY MID-AFTN. SLY LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN THIS
AFTN AND TRANSPORT/MAINTAIN LWR-MID 60S SFC DEW POINTS SW OF A
RETREATING WRMFNT AND AHEAD OF A LEE TROUGH/FRONT ACROSS THE ERN
TX/OK PNHDLS AND SWRN/SCNTRL KS. H7-H5 LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.5 DEG C
PER KM TOPPING THIS REASONABLY RICH MOISTURE AND STRONG DIABATIC
HEATING WILL YIELD SBCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. NRN EXTENT OF
SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION WILL BE RELEGATED ROUGHLY S OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR IN KS...COINCIDENT WITH THE WRMFNT AND STEEPEST LLVL LAPSE
RATES. INSTABILITY AXIS WILL EXTEND INTO SW TX.

AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT TIED TO THE UPR WAVE ARRIVES ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN AND SCTD TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
BY MID-AFTN FROM SWRN/SCNTRL KS SWWD INTO W TX. WLY MID-LVL WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 30-35 KTS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE TX/OK PNHDLS NWD
INTO KS AND RESULT IN MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. AS A RESULT...VAST
MAJORITY OF STORMS WILL BE MULTICELLS...BUT A COUPLE OF BRIEF
SLOW-MOVING SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND DMGG
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

TONIGHT...AS THE WAVE CONTINUES AN ENE TREK ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
THE NOCTURNAL LLJ FURTHER INTENSIFIES...ONE OR MORE SMALL MCS/S MAY
EVOLVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS AND PERHAPS OK. SVR THREATS SHOULD
WANE WITH TIME DURING THE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES...BUT A COUPLE OF SVR HAIL/GUSTY WIND REPORTS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT OVER SCNTRL/SERN KS AND CNTRL OK WELL AFTER DARK.

..RACY/COHEN.. 09/17/2011

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KJAX [171248]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 171248
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
848 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0738 AM HEAVY RAIN SAN MARCO 30.31N 81.66W
09/17/2011 M7.96 INCH DUVAL FL PUBLIC

REPORTED RAINFALL OF 7.96 IN SAN MARCO AREA BY FORMER NWS
EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

AWALKER

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KJAX [170959]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 170959
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
559 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NE NEW RIVER 29.98N 82.24W
09/17/2011 M6.47 INCH BRADFORD FL MESONET

REPORTED RAINFALL OF 6.47 INCHES AT NEW RIVER TOWER IN A
6 HOUR PERIOD. MOST OF RAIN FELL IN A 3 HOUR PERIOD JUST
BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

&&

$$

ARS

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 170901
SWOD48
SPC AC 170900

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE ARE IN AMPLE LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT INTO THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH PROGRESSIVE WESTERLIES EXPECTED TO
INITIALLY PERSIST ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS/CANADA PRIOR TO THE PATTERN POTENTIALLY AMPLIFYING THE LAST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
PERIOD...NO 30 PERCENT EQUIVALENT SEVERE RISK AREAS ARE CURRENTLY
WARRANTED.

FOR DAY 4 TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEEMS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY/SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
REGION. NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN AREAS SUCH AS THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY AND PERHAPS LOWER
MO VALLEY.

INTO DAYS 5-6 WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...SOME SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/EVENTUALLY EASTERN STATES...WHILE SPREADING MORE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
RISK IS NOT EXPECTED EITHER DAY...AND SPECIFIC PREDICTABILITY IS
OTHERWISE LIMITED AT THIS JUNCTURE.

..GUYER.. 09/17/2011

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KJAX [170758]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 170758
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
358 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0255 AM FLOOD JACKSONVILLE BEACH 30.28N 81.39W
09/17/2011 DUVAL FL TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED FLOODING ON SOME STREETS ALONG 3RD
STREET AND ALSO BEACH BLVD. STANDING WATER OF 2 TO 3 FEET
WAS SEEN.

&&

$$

ARS

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 170731
SWODY3
SPC AC 170730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY TO A
DEGREE OVER THE CONUS ON MONDAY. ONE OR MORE LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES
ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY...AHEAD OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL/AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN CANADIAN
PROVINCES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS/NORTHERN ROCKIES.

...ARKLATEX/LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY TO OH VALLEY...
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER/MIDDLE
MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY VICINITIES. WHILE SOME WIND AND/OR HAIL
THREAT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AS STORMS POTENTIALLY
INTENSIFY/INCREASE DIURNALLY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE OVERALL
SEVERE RISK APPEARS TOO MARGINAL/LOCALIZED TO WARRANT SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AT THE DAY 3 JUNCTURE. THIS IS ATTRIBUTABLE TO
EXPECTATIONS FOR WEAK DESTABILIZATION /ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
PREVALENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION/...LIMITED VERTICAL
SHEAR /25 KT OR LESS/...AND FRONTOLYSIS/WEAKENING MASS CONVERGENCE.

..GUYER.. 09/17/2011

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KJAX [170713]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KJAX 170713
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
312 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0210 AM FLOOD 3 ESE ARLINGTON 30.32N 81.56W
09/17/2011 DUVAL FL PUBLIC

WATER REPORTED UP TO 6 INCHES DEEP IN A NIGHT CLUB.

&&

$$

ARS

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KJAX [170710]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 170710
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
309 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0210 AM FLOOD 3 SE ARLINGTON 30.31N 81.57W
09/17/2011 DUVAL FL PUBLIC

WATER REPORTED UP TO 6 INCHES DEEP IN A NIGHT CLUB.

&&

$$

ARS

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 170602
SWODY2
SPC AC 170600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE/RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED
BY AN EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO.

...MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS TO MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS /MAINLY LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/
WILL REMAIN INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EAST OF A
SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE...WHILE MOISTURE OTHERWISE SPREADS
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OZARKS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY AHEAD OF AN
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT /WITH THIS FRONT GRADUALLY
OVERTAKING THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS OK AND NORTHWEST TX/. WHILE
EARLY DAY PRECIPITATION PROVIDES A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...AMPLE
PRE-COLD FRONTAL HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE
SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OK/TX INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN KS. SURFACE BASED
DESTABILIZATION IS MORE UNCERTAIN /BUT LIKELY MUCH WEAKER/ ACROSS
THE OZARKS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY AS CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION MAY BE
PERSISTENT.

WHILE AMPLE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND THE INFLUENCE OF MODEST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE
FORM OF WIND AND HAIL MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...VERTICAL
SHEAR /GENERALLY 25-30 KT/ IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK GIVEN
THAT THE PRIMARY WESTERLIES/PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION WILL
BE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. GIVEN MODEST SHEAR...WEAKENING MASS
CONVERGENCE WITH TIME...AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EARLY DAY
PRECIPITATION/EXACT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION...WILL DEFER TO
SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS FOR REEVALUATION OF A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK FOR
AREAS SUCH AS OK/NORTHWEST TX.

..GUYER.. 09/17/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170517
SWODY1
SPC AC 170515

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 AM CDT SAT SEP 17 2011

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NWRN TX INTO PORTIONS OF
CNTRL KS...

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PRIMARY FORCING
MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY
THE CNTRL PLAINS SATURDAY. EARLY MORNING LLJ ACROSS THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES/WRN KS WILL EASE DURING THE DAY THEN INCREASE AGAIN
DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHICH SHOULD MODULATE THE
INTENSITY/ORGANIZATION OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...A SUBTLE BUT POTENTIALLY MEANINGFUL DISTURBANCE WILL
EJECT ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LARGER LONG WAVE
TROUGH INTO THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS NEAR PEAK HEATING. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE
WHERE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN WEAK
CAP REMOVAL. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSED INTO
SWRN KS IT APPEARS A WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL EVOLVE ACROSS KS BY
18/00Z. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS THE NRN EXTENT OF SIGNIFICANT
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION AND THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE NOTED PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-70 INTO NWRN TX. EVEN SO DEEP
LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE THAT STRONG AND THE MOST
LIKELY CONVECTIVE MODES WILL BE STRONG MULTI-CELLS AND PERHAPS A FEW
WEAK SUPERCELLS. HAIL IS THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY
ALONG WITH SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. GIVEN THAT STORM MOTIONS
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10-15KT MOST STORMS WILL WEAKEN OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS SHORTLY AFTER DARK.

..DARROW/ROGERS.. 09/17/2011

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KVEF [170515]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 170515
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1015 PM PDT FRI SEP 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0855 PM HEAVY RAIN NW PANACA 37.78N 114.38W
09/16/2011 U0.00 INCH LINCOLN NV LAW ENFORCEMENT

LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED 2 TO 3 INCHES OF WATER AND
DEBRIS FLOWING OVER U.S. 93 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 108 AND
109. THE ROAD WAS STILL PASSABLE AT THE TIME.

0855 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 N PANACA 37.80N 114.38W
09/16/2011 LINCOLN NV LAW ENFORCEMENT

LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED 3 TO 4 INCHES OF MUD AND WATER
RUNNING THROUGH THE CATHEDRAL GORGE STATE PARK
CAMPGROUND. THE WATER AND MUD CHASED ABOUT 20 PEOPLE WHO
WERE CAMPING OUT OF THEIR TENTS. THE WATER AND MUD FLOW
WAS ESTIMATED TO BE 75 FEET ACROSS. NO INJURIES WERE
REPORTED.

&&

$$

ASG

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KJAX [170454]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 170454
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1254 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1250 AM FLOOD JACKSONVILLE BEACH 30.28N 81.39W
09/17/2011 DUVAL FL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

JACKSONVILLE FIRE AND RESCUE REPORTED MAJOR FLOODING IN
THE PARKING LOT OF THE JACKSONVILLE BEACH CENTER. RESCUE
VEHICLES HAD TO BE PARKED AT A DIFFERENT LOCATION.

&&

$$

SHULER

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KJAX [170404]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 170404
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1204 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 PM FLOOD 4 NW JACKSONVILLE BEACH 30.32N 81.42W
09/16/2011 DUVAL FL EMERGENCY MNGR

STREET FLOODING REPORTED ON MAYPORT ROAD AND ATLANTIC
BLVD.

1100 PM FLOOD 2 NNW JACKSONVILLE BEAC 30.31N 81.40W
09/16/2011 DUVAL FL EMERGENCY MNGR

STREET FLOODING REPORTED AT MYRA STREET AND 3RD STREET.

1102 PM FLOOD 2 SW NEPTUNE BEACH 30.29N 81.42W
09/16/2011 DUVAL FL EMERGENCY MNGR

VEHICLE TRAPPED BY HIGH WATER. NO INJURIES REPORTED.

&&

$$

ARS

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