KBOI [181433]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 181433
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
733 AM MST MON JAN 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0731 AM SNOW 2 N PINE 43.50N 115.32W
01/18/2010 M7.0 INCH ELMORE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

7 INCHES NEW SNOW SINCE 10 PM ON 01/17.

0731 AM SNOW 12 NE BOISE 43.73N 116.06W
01/18/2010 E2.0 INCH BOISE ID PUBLIC

BOGUS BASIN SNOWSTAKE REPORTED 2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW SINCE
5 PM ON 01/17.

&&

$$

MTHIMMES

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KPQR [181327]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPQR 181327
LSRPQR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
527 AM PST MON JAN 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0212 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ASTORIA 46.19N 123.82W
01/18/2010 M60.00 MPH CLATSOP OR OTHER FEDERAL

SUSTAINED WIND 29 MPH AT TONGUE POINT.

&&

$$

MHIGA

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KPQR [181321]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPQR 181321
LSRPQR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
521 AM PST MON JAN 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 PM NON-TSTM WND GST FLORENCE 43.99N 124.10W
01/17/2010 M76.00 MPH LANE OR C-MAN STATION

SUSTAINED WIND 51 MPH.

1004 PM NON-TSTM WND GST NEWPORT 44.63N 124.05W
01/17/2010 M72.00 MPH LINCOLN OR MESONET

SUSTAIN WIND 55 MPH AT YAQUINA BAY BRIDGE.

1045 PM NON-TSTM WND GST LINCOLN CITY 44.97N 124.01W
01/17/2010 M59.00 MPH LINCOLN OR MESONET

1046 PM NON-TSTM WND GST FLORENCE 43.99N 124.10W
01/17/2010 M64.00 MPH LANE OR C-MAN STATION

SIUSLAW JETTY.

1055 PM NON-TSTM WND GST CAPE MEARES 45.49N 123.97W
01/17/2010 M83.00 MPH TILLAMOOK OR AMATEUR RADIO

1100 PM NON-TSTM WND GST NEWPORT 44.63N 124.05W
01/17/2010 M68.00 MPH LINCOLN OR C-MAN STATION

SUSTAINED WIND 46 MPH.

1109 PM NON-TSTM WND GST PACIFIC CITY 45.20N 123.96W
01/17/2010 M69.00 MPH TILLAMOOK OR MESONET

SUSTAINED WIND 45 MPH.

1109 PM NON-TSTM WND GST NEWPORT 44.63N 124.05W
01/17/2010 M60.00 MPH LINCOLN OR AWOS

SUSTAINED WIND 40 MPH.

1115 PM NON-TSTM WND GST LINCOLN CITY 44.97N 124.01W
01/17/2010 M79.00 MPH LINCOLN OR AMATEUR RADIO

SUSTAINED WIND 34 MPH.

1135 PM NON-TSTM WND GST GARIBALDI 45.56N 123.91W
01/17/2010 M84.00 MPH TILLAMOOK OR OFFICIAL NWS OBS

SUSTAINED WIND 59 MPH.

1135 PM NON-TSTM WND GST FOREST GROVE 45.52N 123.10W
01/17/2010 M61.00 MPH WASHINGTON OR TRAINED SPOTTER

1200 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ROCKAWAY BEACH 45.62N 123.94W
01/18/2010 M73.00 MPH TILLAMOOK OR AMATEUR RADIO

1200 AM NON-TSTM WND GST GARIBALDI 45.56N 123.91W
01/18/2010 M83.00 MPH TILLAMOOK OR OTHER FEDERAL

SUSTAINED WIND 64 MPH.

1250 AM NON-TSTM WND GST CAPE DISAPPOINTMENT 46.27N 124.08W
01/18/2010 M75.00 MPH PACIFIC WA COAST GUARD

SUSTAINED WIND 59 MPH.

0205 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ASTORIA 46.19N 123.82W
01/18/2010 M60.00 MPH CLATSOP OR ASOS

SUSTAINED WIND 40 MPH.

0300 AM NON-TSTM WND GST CLATSOP SPIT 46.22N 124.00W
01/18/2010 M77.00 MPH CLATSOP OR OFFICIAL NWS OBS

SUSTAINED WIND 58 MPH.

&&

$$

MHIGA

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181300
SWODY1
SPC AC 181258

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST MON JAN 18 2010

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CA...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE FIRST IN AN EXTENDED SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSES IN FAST
ZONAL JET OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN PACIFIC WILL SWEEP E ACROSS CA AND
ORE LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS UPSTREAM SYSTEM NOW NEAR 150W CONTINUES
ESE TO 130W. AT THE SFC...POTENT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD
IMPULSE...NOW NEAR 40N/132W...SHOULD ARC NE TO OFF THE ORE/WA CST BY
EARLY TUE...WITH FURTHER DEEPENING LIKELY. MAIN FRONTAL BAND WITH
THE LOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS SW ORE...AND NRN/CNTRL CA THIS AFTN...AND
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ORE AND CA THIS EVE.

...CA...
CURRENT SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT LEAD PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
BEGINNING TO SPLIT...MORE OR LESS AS FCST BY THE ECMWF/GFS. SRN
MEMBER OF SPLIT WILL DRIVE ESE INTO CNTRL CA LATER TODAY... WHILE
NRN PART MOVES ENE INTO NRN CA/WRN ORE. WARM CONVEYOR/ FRONTAL RAIN
BAND WITH SRN MEMBER WILL OVERSPREAD NRN AND CNTRL CA THIS
AFTN...AND SRN CA BY EVE. ALTHOUGH THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE
CLOSE TO MOIST ADIABATIC WITHIN THE BAND...COMBINATION OF STRONG UVV
AND FAIRLY RICH MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT EMBEDDED CONVECTION AND A FEW
TSTMS. GIVEN STRONG/VERTICALLY-VEERING WIND PROFILES...INTERMITTENT
ROTATING CELLS/LEWP STRUCTURES COULD EVOLVE...YIELDING A THREAT FOR
ISOLD STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BAND...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD CONVECTION/STORMS AS UPR COLD POCKET /WITH
TEMPERATURES AOB MINUS 22C/ SWEEPS INLAND ACROSS CNTRL CA LATE IN
THE DAY. MID LVL COOLING/ASCENT ATOP BOUNDARY LAYER LEFT MOISTENED
BY EARLIER RAINS COULD SUPPORT STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SVR HAIL ALONG
THE CST...OVER THE CSTL RANGES...AND E ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO AND SAN
JOAQUIN VLYS INTO TONIGHT. WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
STORM ROTATION IN AREAS WHERE INSTABILITY/ CONVERGENCE ARE
SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT SUSTENANCE. THUS...A CONDITIONAL THREAT WILL
EXIST FOR STRONG/ISOLD SVR WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR
TWO...DESPITE ONSET OF NIGHTFALL.

..CORFIDI.. 01/18/2010

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KTSA [181251]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 181251
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
651 AM CST MON JAN 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0120 AM DENSE FOG OZARK 35.49N 93.83W
01/18/2010 FRANKLIN AR EMERGENCY MNGR

FREEZING FOG HAS CAUSED SOME SLICK SPOTS ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES IN OZARK.

&&

$$

MEB

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KBOX [181226]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KBOX 181226
LSRBOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
725 AM EST MON JAN 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0107 AM HEAVY SNOW LEOMINSTER 42.52N 71.77W
01/18/2010 U0.0 INCH WORCESTER MA AMATEUR RADIO

WIRES DOWN DUE TO SNOW ACCUMULATION

0210 AM HEAVY SNOW WHATELY 42.45N 72.62W
01/18/2010 U0.0 INCH FRANKLIN MA AMATEUR RADIO

WIRES DOWN NEAR ALLEN BROS. LUMBER YARD DUE TO SNOW
ACCUMULATION

0331 AM HEAVY SNOW GROVELAND 42.75N 71.03W
01/18/2010 U0.0 INCH ESSEX MA AMATEUR RADIO

WIRES DOWN.

0435 AM HEAVY SNOW NORTH ANDOVER 42.70N 71.12W
01/18/2010 U0.0 INCH COOS NH AMATEUR RADIO

WIRES DOWN ON HIGH STREET.

0452 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG DEDHAM 42.25N 71.18W
01/18/2010 NORFOLK MA AMATEUR RADIO

WIRES DOWN ON COLBURN STREET.

0455 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG NATICK 42.28N 71.35W
01/18/2010 MIDDLESEX MA AMATEUR RADIO

WIRES AND BRANCHES DOWN.

&&

$$

FNOCERA

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KBOX [181044]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KBOX 181044
LSRBOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
544 AM EST MON JAN 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0107 AM HEAVY SNOW LEOMINSTER 42.52N 71.77W
01/18/2010 U0.0 INCH WORCESTER MA AMATEUR RADIO

WIRES DOWN DUE TO SNOW ACCUMULATION

0210 AM HEAVY SNOW WHATELY 42.45N 72.62W
01/18/2010 U0.0 INCH FRANKLIN MA AMATEUR RADIO

WIRES DOWN NEAR ALLEN BROS. LUMBER YARD DUE TO SNOW
ACCUMULATION

0331 AM HEAVY SNOW GROVELAND 42.75N 71.03W
01/18/2010 U0.0 INCH OXFORD ME AMATEUR RADIO

WIRES DOWN.

0435 AM HEAVY SNOW NORTH ANDOVER 42.70N 71.12W
01/18/2010 U0.0 INCH COOS NH AMATEUR RADIO

WIRES DOWN ON HIGH STREET.

0452 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG DEDHAM 42.25N 71.18W
01/18/2010 NORFOLK MA AMATEUR RADIO

WIRES DOWN ON COLBURN STREET.

0455 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG NATICK 42.28N 71.35W
01/18/2010 MIDDLESEX MA AMATEUR RADIO

WIRES AND BRANCHES DOWN.

&&

$$

FNOCERA

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 180915
SWOD48
SPC AC 180914

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 AM CST MON JAN 18 2010

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...

DAY 4...MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
EJECT ENEWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND SERN U.S. THURSDAY...BUT ECMWF
AND GFS SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO. DESPITE THIS TREND...WILL MAINTAIN SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS
NRN FL INTO SRN GA. PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL ADVECT NEWD
INTO THIS REGION AND CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY. THE
MOIST AXIS WILL BE CO-LOCATED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER WINDS AND
VERTICAL SHEAR ATTENDING THE EJECTING UPPER TROUGH. STORMS
DEVELOPING EWD THROUGH THIS AREA MAY BE ROOTED CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
SURFACE TO POSE A SEVERE RISK.

DAY 6 AND 7...ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS...GFS AND MREF MEMBERS HAVE
CONVERGED ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION AND MOVE THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE ERN PACIFIC EWD INTO THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY. SEVERAL IMPULSES
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES EAST. A LARGE CYCLONE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE
SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY SUNDAY. INTRUSION OF
CP AIR IN WAKE OF EJECTING IMPULSE THURSDAY WILL NOT EXTEND FAR INTO
THE GULF. AS A RESULT...RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE POISED TO
ADVECT NWD AS CYCLONE DEEPENS...THOUGH DURATION OF THE MOIST
ADVECTION WILL NOT BE OPTIMAL. A FORCED BAND OF STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER-MID
MS VALLEY SATURDAY. ACTIVITY WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE
TN VALLEY AND SERN STATES SUNDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
EVOLUTION OF THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL BE
EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE MAY
ADVECT NWD TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED STORMS AND A SEVERE THREAT
DURING THIS TIME.

..DIAL.. 01/18/2010

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KBOX [180753]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBOX 180753
LSRBOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
253 AM EST MON JAN 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0107 AM HEAVY SNOW LEOMINSTER 42.52N 71.77W
01/18/2010 U0.0 INCH WORCESTER MA AMATEUR RADIO

WIRES DOWN DUE TO SNOW ACCUMULATION

0210 AM HEAVY SNOW WHATELY 42.45N 72.62W
01/18/2010 U0.0 INCH FRANKLIN MA AMATEUR RADIO

WIRES DOWN NEAR ALLEN BROS. LUMBER YARD DUE TO SNOW
ACCUMULATION

&&

$$

BELK

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KSEW [180753]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 180753
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1153 PM PST SUN JAN 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1152 PM NON-TSTM WND GST WSW GLENOMA 46.51N 122.16W
01/17/2010 E45 MPH LEWIS WA TRAINED SPOTTER

POWER OUTAGES

&&

$$

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 180732
SWODY3
SPC AC 180731

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0131 AM CST MON JAN 18 2010

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER
MS VALLEY AND SRN PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH WITH SRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND LOWER MS VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. NAM AND NAM-KF MODELS REMAIN THE
FARTHEST SOUTH. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EWD
FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL
REACH THE TN VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP NWD INTO THE TN VALLEY...BUT THE COASTAL FRONT WILL
PROBABLY ADVANCE TO JUST OFF THE GULF COAST.

...SE TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA...

SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WITHIN UPPER DIVERGENCE ZONE JUST DOWNSTREAM OF ADVANCING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE SERN STATES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED
NEWD WITH LOW-MID 60F DEWPOINTS FROM SERN TX EWD TO SRN PARTS OF THE
GULF COASTAL STATES AND UPPER 50F TO NEAR 60F FARTHER NORTH. THE
RICH GULF MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE SOUTH OF
COASTAL FRONT. HOWEVER...THE NWD ADVECTION OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED
GULF AIR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST MODEST DESTABILIZATION
GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH -14C TO -15C AT 500 MB.
DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WITHIN WARM ADVECTION REGIME
WILL PROBABLY LIMIT MUCAPE TO AOB 1000 J/KG.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY WITHIN ZONE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE SERN STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH POSSIBLE UPSCALE GROWTH TO AN MCS. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ELEVATED GIVEN LIMITED INSOLATION
POTENTIAL AND EARLY ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WITHIN AN INITIALLY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...STORMS DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE
GULF COAST MAY BECOME ROOTED NEAR THE SURFACE WITH CONTINUED INFLUX
OF GULF MOISTURE. HODOGRAPH SIZE AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH A THREAT OF
DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. MORE THAN 15% SEVERE
PROBABILITIES DO NOT APPEAR JUSTIFIED AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL THERMODYNAMIC LIMITING FACTORS.

...NRN AND CNTRL CA...

ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL MOVE EWD INTO CA ACCOMPANIED BY
STEEP LAPSE RATES. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY MIGHT DEVELOP TO SUPPORT A
THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL
REGIONS.

..DIAL.. 01/18/2010

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KTSA [180724]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 180724
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
124 AM CST MON JAN 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0120 AM DENSE FOG 2 WSW BENTONVILLE 36.36N 94.24W
01/18/2010 BENTON AR PUBLIC

VISIBILITY 100 FEET AT BEST.

&&

$$

MEB

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KREV [180644]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KREV 180644
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1044 PM PST SUN JAN 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 PM SNOW 4 W PROSSER CREEK RESER 39.37N 120.25W
01/17/2010 M5.0 INCH NEVADA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

5 INCHES NEW SNOWFALL SINCE 1200PM AT 6500 FT. CURRENTLY
28F, CALM WINDS.

1030 PM SNOW 2 NNE CRESCENT MILLS 40.12N 120.90W
01/17/2010 M1.0 INCH PLUMAS CA TRAINED SPOTTER

1 INCH OF SLUSHY SNOW. SNOWING HEAVYILY AT THIS TIME.
ELEVATION 3550 FT.

1037 PM SNOW 1 E SODA SPRINGS 39.32N 120.36W
01/17/2010 E8.0 INCH NEVADA CA MESONET

NEW SNOW SINCE 11 AM SUNDAY. FROM HMT-WEST PROJECT
AUTOMATED SENSOR AT NORDEN. APPROX 0.6 LIQUID EQUIV. ELEV
6890 FT.

&&

$$

CSMALLCO

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KSEW [180639]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 180639
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1039 PM PST SUN JAN 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1038 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 4 ENE VAIL 46.86N 122.58W
01/17/2010 M44 MPH THURSTON WA TRAINED SPOTTER

GUSTS 60

&&

$$

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KEKA [180610]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KEKA 180610
LSREKA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1006 PM PST SUN JAN 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM HIGH SUST WINDS ARCATA 40.87N 124.08W
01/17/2010 U0.00 MPH HUMBOLDT CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

13045 WEST END ROAD, LOW HANGING WIRES REPORTED

0200 PM HIGH SUST WINDS ARCATA 40.87N 124.08W
01/17/2010 U0.00 MPH HUMBOLDT CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

JACOBY CREEK RD AT ECHO LN, POWER LINES REPORTED DOWN

0200 PM HIGH SUST WINDS BRIDGEVILLE 40.47N 123.80W
01/17/2010 U0.00 MPH HUMBOLDT CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGHWAY 36 AT MILE MARKER 9... TREES DOWN CROSSING THE
ROADWAY

0200 PM HIGH SUST WINDS MYRTLETOWN 40.79N 124.13W
01/17/2010 U0.00 MPH HUMBOLDT CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

3311 GLENWOOD ST. POWER LINE DOWN

0200 PM HIGH SUST WINDS FIELDBROOK 40.97N 124.03W
01/17/2010 U0.00 MPH HUMBOLDT CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN ACROSS FIELDBROOK ROAD

0200 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 1 E ARCATA 40.87N 124.06W
01/17/2010 U0.00 MPH HUMBOLDT CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN ACROSS HIGHWAY 299...ONE MILE EAST OF HIGHWAY
101

0200 PM HIGH SUST WINDS FIELDBROOK 40.97N 124.03W
01/17/2010 U0.00 MPH HUMBOLDT CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN REPORTED JUST SOUTH OF ELIZABETH, AND AT 1291
AZALEA AVE NEAR FIELBROOK

0200 PM HIGH SUST WINDS CRESCENT CITY 41.75N 124.20W
01/17/2010 U0.00 MPH DEL NORTE CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN REPORTED ACROSS LAKE EARL ROAD
JUST NORTH OF PELICAN BAY PRISON.

0200 PM HIGH SUST WINDS MIRANDA 40.23N 123.82W
01/17/2010 U0.00 MPH HUMBOLDT CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGHWAY 254 NEAR MILE MARKER 42...TREES AND POWER LINES
DOWN

0200 PM HIGH SUST WINDS BLUE LAKE 40.88N 123.99W
01/17/2010 U0.00 MPH HUMBOLDT CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

BLUE LAKE BLVD...TREE DOWN COVERING THE ROADWAY

&&

$$

BLOEMER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 180540
SWODY1
SPC AC 180538

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2010

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

....CALIFORNIA...
A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH CALIFORNIA TODAY.
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A LARGE AREA OF RAIN IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
INLAND ACROSS THE COAST OF NRN AND CNTRL CA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR COMBINED
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HAIL
MAY EXIST IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER-TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE STEEPEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE SRN CA COAST...THE SRN END OF THE RAINBAND
SHOULD SPREAD INLAND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE MODELS SHOW
INSTABILITY MAXIMIZED JUST OFFSHORE BENEATH THE EXIT REGION OF A
POWERFUL MID-LEVEL JET. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
JET MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING WING GUSTS
WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN BAND. IF A FEW
STORMS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT WOULD ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

..BROYLES.. 01/18/2010

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 180531
SWODY2
SPC AC 180530

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2010

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

ACTIVE SRN STREAM WILL PERSIST WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES EMANATING FROM
THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE ERN PACIFIC. ANOTHER IN A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE FROM THE WRN U.S. INTO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE MID MS VALLEY
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...ERN TX AND SERN OK THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE WRN GULF WILL BE UNDERWAY EARLY TUESDAY
OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE. UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME DEEPENING OF THE LOW AS IT
DEVELOPS EWD INTO KS/OK. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE GULF HAS
BEEN SUPPRESSED BY RECENT FRONTAL INTRUSION. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
WINDS HAVE ALREADY RETURNED TO SLY OVER THE WRN GULF WITH MID 50S
DEWPOINTS INDICATED IN SRN TX AS OF SUNDAY EVENING. AXIS OF
PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH LOW TO MID 60F DEWPOINTS SHOULD
RETURN NWD TO SRN-SERN TX WITH UPPER 50F TO 60F MORE LIKELY ACROSS
NERN TX. THIS MOISTURE WILL RETURN NWD BENEATH EWD ADVECTING PLUME
OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN MUCAPE FROM 500-1000 J/KG.

SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN WITH APPROACH OF THE IMPULSE.
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM ERN PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY WITHIN DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION
REGIME LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL PROBABLY REMAIN
ELEVATED ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER GIVEN THE EXPECTED LATE
INITIATION...AND ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. NEWD TRAJECTORY OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOWARD KS AND
LIKELIHOOD OF A CAP WITHIN THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS INDICATE THE
ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN SOMEWHAT DISPLACED FROM
THE GREATER INSTABILITY. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
PRIOR TO 12Z WILL PROBABLY REMAIN LIMITED.

...SWRN CA THROUGH SWRN AZ...

ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH CA AND AZ LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING NORTH OF STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET. COLD
AIR ALOFT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK
INSTABILITY...MAINLY ALONG COASTAL CA AND INTO SWRN AZ WHERE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A MOISTER BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONG BULK SHEAR WILL
EXIST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE UPPER JET AXIS. AREAS OF PRECIPITATION
MAY STILL BE ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY FROM SRN CA INTO AZ IN
ASSOCIATION WITH EJECTING LEAD WAVE. MODEST DESTABILIZATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AS SECONDARY IMPULSE APPROACHES DURING THE EVENING WITH A
MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST
SEVERE THREAT.

..DIAL.. 01/18/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 180054
SWODY1
SPC AC 180052

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2010

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE QUICKLY ENEWD
OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN SRN MD
VERY NEAR THE CENTER OF A 998 MB SFC LOW. INSTABILITY IS VERY WEAK
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THE STORMS SHOULD NOT POSE A SEVERE
THREAT.

ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST TONIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE COASTS OF ORE AND NRN CA TONIGHT SHOW
STEEP LAPSE RATES WHICH COMBINED WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS VERY WEAK AND NO SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED
THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY.

..BROYLES.. 01/18/2010

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KMFR [180053]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 180053
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
453 PM PST SUN JAN 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0452 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 WSW WILDERVILLE 42.36N 123.56W
01/17/2010 M1.20 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HOUR AMOUNT ENDING 5PM.

&&

$$

HOLTZ

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KMFR [180014]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 180014
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
414 PM PST SUN JAN 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0413 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SE COOS BAY 43.36N 124.20W
01/17/2010 M57 MPH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

PEAK WIND AS OF 336 PM.

&&

$$

HOLTZ

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KMHX [172353]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 172353
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
653 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM TSTM WND GST 5 NW SNOW HILL 35.50N 77.74W
01/17/2010 E50 MPH GREENE NC EMERGENCY MNGR

OUTBUILDING KNOCKED DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF SHINE
ROAD AND COW BRANCH ROAD IN THE FORT RUN AREA.

&&

$$

BCULLEN

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KRNK [172334]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 172334
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
634 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0628 PM FLOOD PULASKI 37.05N 80.80W
01/17/2010 PULASKI VA EMERGENCY MNGR

ICE JAM ALONG PEAK CREEK AT LOTTIER BRIDGE. WATER COMING
OVER THE BRIDGE...ROAD CLOSED.

0628 PM FLOOD PULASKI 37.05N 80.80W
01/17/2010 PULASKI VA EMERGENCY MNGR

ICE JAM CAUSING MINOR FLOODING AT LITTLE CREEK ROAD AND
ALUM SPRING ROAD. ONE LANE CLOSED.

&&

$$

RSTONEFI

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KMFR [172333]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 172333
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
333 PM PST SUN JAN 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM SNOW CRATER LAKE 42.90N 122.13W
01/17/2010 M5.0 INCH KLAMATH OR PARK/FOREST SRVC

CRATER LAKE PARK HEADQUARTES REPORTED DAYTIME NEW SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 5 INCHES. ALSO WINDS GUSTING IN 30 TO 50
MPH RANGE ON THE RIM. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR ROAD CREWS TO KEEP THE ROAD CLEAR.

&&

$$

LUTZ

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KRNK [172333]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 172333
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
633 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

&&

$$

RSTONEFI

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KMHX [172332]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 172332
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
632 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM TSTM WND GST STOKES 35.71N 77.26W
01/17/2010 E50 MPH PITT NC EMERGENCY MNGR

STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO AN OUTBUILDING ON WORTHINGTON-WARREN
ROAD.

&&

$$

BCULLEN

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KJAX [172034]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 172034
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
333 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0154 PM NON-TSTM WND GST JACKSONVILLE INTL ARPT 30.48N 81.71W
01/17/2010 M48.00 MPH DUVAL FL ASOS

THE JACKSONVILLE INTL AIRPORT ASOS MEASURED A PEAK WIND
GUST OF 48 MPH FROM 240 DEGREES.

0318 PM NON-TSTM WND GST MANDARIN 30.15N 81.64W
01/17/2010 M46.00 MPH DUVAL FL TRAINED SPOTTER

A TRAINED SPOTTER MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 46 MPH. SMALL
LIMBS WERE REPORTED DOWN IN MANDARIN.

&&

$$

ARS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 172001
SWODY1
SPC AC 172000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CST SUN JAN 17 2010

VALID 172000Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CAROLINAS TO SOUTHEAST VA...
SOME UPSWING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT AT MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS SC INTO NC PER VISIBLE SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY...NAMELY IN
THE FORM OF SMALL/LOW-TOPPED LINEAR SEGMENTS. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS
LARGELY TIED TO A NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCING VORT MAX/SURGING DRY
SLOT...WITH SUBSEQUENT NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THESE SHOWERS/SOME
TSTMS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE
CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST VA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WITH A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF SBCAPE...AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL/50+ KT FLOW AT 1 KM AND
ABOVE /PER REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS/...THERE IS A MODEST CONCERN FOR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND/OR MARGINAL HAIL FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...HAVE REINTRODUCED LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES
MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SC/NC TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

..GUYER.. 01/17/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST SUN JAN 17 2010/

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP LOW OVER MIDDLE TN. THIS LOW
WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE DELMARVA REGION BY
00Z. MEANWHILE...THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING OFF THE
NC COAST IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEPARTING THE MAINLAND.

...CAROLINAS...
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PARTIAL DAYTIME HEATING...COOLING MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
NC/SC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BECOME
PARTICULARLY STEEP OVER THIS REGION...WITH MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY
BELOW 500 J/KG. DESPITE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR...IT
DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY THAT UPDRAFTS WILL BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA AS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST AS THE NEXT MAJOR TROUGH
APPROACHES. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST IN THESE REGIONS.

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KJAX [171914]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 171914
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
213 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 SW OCALA 29.16N 82.17W
01/17/2010 MARION FL EMERGENCY MNGR

STATE WARNING POINT RELAYED REPORT OF 3 HOMES WITH
ALUMINUM ROOFING TORN OFF ON SW 64TH LANE RD.

&&

$$

MZ

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KMHX [171810]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 171810
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
110 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1210 PM NON-TSTM WND GST FRISCO 35.24N 75.63W
01/17/2010 M59 MPH DARE NC ASOS

HSE ASOS REPORTED GUST TO 51 KNOTS.

&&

$$

JBM

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 171730
SWODY2
SPC AC 171729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CST SUN JAN 17 2010

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH/FRONTAL
SYSTEM...RELATIVELY QUIET CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONUS ON MONDAY. THE PRIMARY TSTM/ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE TIED TO A STRONG PACIFIC JET/UPPER TROUGH NEARING
THE WEST COAST.

...CA COAST...
BENEATH THE EXIT REGION OF A SIGNIFICANT SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC UPPER
JET...LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT FRONTAL BAND WILL PIVOT
INLAND ACROSS CA DURING THE DAY. WITH ONE OR MORE BANDS OF SHOWERY
CONVECTION AND EMBEDDED TSTMS LIKELY TO MOVE INLAND...APPRECIABLY
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING LOW TO MID
TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
WIND GUSTS AND/OR SMALL HAIL ON AN ISOLATED BASIS...MAINLY FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CA COASTAL AREAS.

..GUYER.. 01/17/2010

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KMRX [171619]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMRX 171619
LSRMRX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1118 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1113 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG TOWNSEND 35.68N 83.75W
01/16/2010 BLOUNT TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROCK SLIDE ON HWY 321 AT HATCHERS CUT. REPORTED BY
DISPATCH.

0300 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG GATLINBURG 35.72N 83.49W
01/17/2010 SEVIER TN PARK/FOREST SRVC

RANGER HAD TO CLEAR DEBRIS FROM PORTIONS OF NEWFOUND GAP
RD.

0500 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG ELIZABETHTON 36.34N 82.23W
01/17/2010 CARTER TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

FEW TREES DOWN ON TAYLOR AVE NEAR WATAUGA ROAD.
DISPATCHER.

&&

$$

MEP

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171618
SWODY1
SPC AC 171616

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1016 AM CST SUN JAN 17 2010

VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP LOW OVER MIDDLE TN. THIS LOW
WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE DELMARVA REGION BY
00Z. MEANWHILE...THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING OFF THE
NC COAST IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEPARTING THE MAINLAND.

...CAROLINAS...
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...PARTIAL DAYTIME HEATING...COOLING MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
NC/SC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BECOME
PARTICULARLY STEEP OVER THIS REGION...WITH MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY
BELOW 500 J/KG. DESPITE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR...IT
DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY THAT UPDRAFTS WILL BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA AS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST AS THE NEXT MAJOR TROUGH
APPROACHES. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST IN THESE REGIONS.

..HART.. 01/17/2010

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KCHS [171351]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 171351
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
851 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0531 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 39 SSE CENTENARY 32.50N 79.10W
01/17/2010 M45 MPH AMZ370 XX BUOY

A PEAK WIND OF 45 MPH WAS RECORED BY BUOY 41004 AS A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS THE BUOY.

&&

$$

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KMHX [171235]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 171235
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
734 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0641 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 E AYDEN 35.47N 77.35W
01/17/2010 M55 MPH PITT NC UTILITY COMPANY

WIND GUST REPORTED BY GREENVILLE UTILITY ANEMOMETER IN
STOKESTOWN EAST OF AYDEN 55 MPH

&&

$$

JELARDO

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 170944
SWOD48
SPC AC 170943

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CST SUN JAN 17 2010

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...

...DAY 4 AND 5...

SLIGHT TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES EXIST...BUT GFS...ECMWF AND
MREF MEMBER SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR REGARDING SERIES OF IMPULSES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SRN
PLAINS AND SERN STATES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

LEAD IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY AND WEAKEN AS IT EJECTS NEWD
THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY...WHILE SECONDARY IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH TX
AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL
RETURN NWD BENEATH COLD AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST MODEST SBCAPE FROM SE TX INTO THE GULF COAST AREA WEDNESDAY.
MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS EXTENT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WITHIN WARM
ADVECTION REGIME THAT WOULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION. IF ADEQUATE
SBCAPE DEVELOPS...STRENGTH OF VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE
STORMS INITIALLY FROM SERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY SHIFTING EWD
ALONG THE GULF COASTAL REGION.

STORMS WILL DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH INTO THE MS VALLEY AND ERN
TX...BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED WITH A
THREAT FOR MAINLY HAIL.

BY THURSDAY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT STRONG DEEP LAYER
WINDS WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES...WITH INCREASING
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS MAINLY ACROSS FL AND POSSIBLY INTO SRN GA.

PREDICTABILITY DECREASES SUBSTANTIALLY BEYOND DAY 5.

..DIAL.. 01/17/2010

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0008

ACUS11 KWNS 170942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170941
NCZ000-SCZ000-171015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0008
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 AM CST SUN JAN 17 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SC TO SRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 170941Z - 171015Z

NON-ZERO THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED...BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR STRONG WIND
GUST PERSISTS EARLY THIS SUNDAY MORNING FROM THE SC COAST /NEAR CHS/
TO THE SRN COASTAL AREA OF NC.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED A BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING NEWD ALONG
THE SC COAST...WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE BEGINNING TO INCREASE WITH
NEWD EXTENT TO THE SRN COASTAL AREA OF NC. MEANWHILE...REGIONAL
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A PERSISTENT NARROW FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION
WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS EXTENDING FROM ERN SC SWD TO EAST OF CHS AND
THEN OFFSHORE. THIS LINE IS COINCIDENT WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
DEEP FORCING ATTENDANT TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING SC.
RECENT INCREASE IN LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THIS LINE SUGGESTS AN
INCREASE IN FORCING FOR ASCENT AS THE TROUGH BECOMES MORE
NEGATIVELY-TILTED.

OF CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING IS A PERSISTENT...LONG-LIVED...UPDRAFT
THAT RECENTLY REFORMED EAST OF CHS NEAR THE BORDER OF CHARLESTON/
GEORGETOWN COUNTIES PER CHS RADAR IMAGERY. THIS STORM IS LOCATED AT
THE INTERSECTION OF THE COASTAL BOUNDARY WHERE AMBIENT LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AND VORTICITY HAVE AIDED IN PERIODIC LOW LEVEL ROTATION. THIS
STORM SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK NEWD ALONG THIS SAME BOUNDARY...
REACHING NC /SRN COLUMBUS AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES/ BY 11-12Z. IN
ADDITION TO WEAK INSTABILITY...THE DOWN-SHEARED PRECIPITATION SHIELD
FROM THIS LINE /EXTENDING TO MYR/ WILL BE ANOTHER NEGATIVE FACTOR
FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO BECOME SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE FOR
CONVECTION TO HAVE A MORE PERSISTENT SURFACE BASED POTENTIAL.

..PETERS.. 01/17/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...

LAT...LON 32147982 32957995 33597983 33987932 34387849 34297780
33897759 33447767 32147982

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0007

ACUS11 KWNS 170834
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170833
NCZ000-SCZ000-170900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0007
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 AM CST SUN JAN 17 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SC TO SRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 170833Z - 170900Z

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO THROUGH 10-12Z...ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE
SC COAST TO THE SRN EXTENT OF THE NC COASTAL AREA /BRUNSWICK...
PENDER AND COLUMBUS COUNTIES/. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
SHOULD BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE...AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A
POTENTIAL WATCH GIVEN THE AVAILABLE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS.

SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED...GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY AND WEAK
SFC-3 KM LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE /40-60 KT PER CHS WSR-88D VWP/ AND
STRONG FORCING ATTENDANT TO A NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRACKING TOWARD SC SUGGEST A NARROW FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST NEWD EARLY THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED THIS LINE
OF CONVECTION /WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS/ EXTENDING FROM DORCHESTER TO
BEAUFORT COUNTIES AND THEN SWD OFFSHORE OF GA/NERN FL. GIVEN THE
STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR...THIS LINE OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION WITH EMBEDDED
LEWPS.

..PETERS.. 01/17/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...

LAT...LON 32187993 32768023 33278047 33747946 34197870 34347810
34177753 33927730 33377768 32697893 32187993

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 170756
SWODY3
SPC AC 170755

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 AM CST SUN JAN 17 2010

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...SYNOPSIS...

VERY ACTIVE SRN STREAM WILL PERSIST AS STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET SHIFTS
EWD THROUGH BAJA CA...NRN MEXICO AND THE SRN PLAINS. ANOTHER IN A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS TUESDAY
EVENING...REACHING THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT.

...ERN TX AND SERN OK THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE WRN GULF WILL BE UNDERWAY EARLY TUESDAY
OVER THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE. UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME DEEPENING OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES EWD INTO KS/OK. OWING TO RECENT FRONTAL INTRUSION OVER THE
GULF...QUALITY OF RETURNING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD NOT BE
PARTICULARLY HIGH. HOWEVER..AN AXIS OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR
WITH LOW 60F DEWPOINTS OVER SRN-SERN TX AND UPPER 50F OVER N-CNTRL
AND NERN TX WILL BE LIKELY. THIS MOISTURE WILL RETURN NWD BENEATH
PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT WITH 500-1000 J/KG
MUCAPE POSSIBLE.

A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN WITH APPROACH OF THE IMPULSE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM ERN PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. STORMS WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER GIVEN EXPECTED LATE INITIATION. HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION WHICH COULD
AUGMENT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES. A
MORE NEWD TRAJECTORY OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUGGESTS ZONE OF DEEPER
ASCENT AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT DISPLACED
FROM THE GREATER INSTABILITY. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..DIAL.. 01/17/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170536
SWODY1
SPC AC 170535

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 PM CST SAT JAN 16 2010

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL INCLUDE LOSS OF SPLIT-FLOW REGIME
OVER S-CENTRAL/SERN CONUS THIS PERIOD. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
ANALYZED INVOF SRN MS/AL WILL EJECT NEWD OVER SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS DURING FIRST HALF OF PERIOD. MEANWHILE...MID-UPPER
LEVEL LOW NOW OVER NE TX IS FCST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY
AROUND 17/12Z...WHILE EVOLVING INTO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH...THEN MOVING
EWD ACROSS GA/CAROLINAS. THIS TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE EWD AS IT DOES
SO...AMIDST BELT OF ENHANCED CYCLONIC FLOW INFLUENCED BY LEADING
PERTURBATION.

INITIAL/OCCLUDED SFC CYCLONE -- ANALYZED AT 17/04Z OVER E-CENTRAL MS
-- WILL MOVE NEWD INTO SRN APPALACHIANS DURING FIRST 6-9 HOURS OF
PERIOD WHILE WEAKENING. SECONDARY LOW SHOULD FORM ALONG WARM FRONT
FARTHER E BY 17/12Z AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS CAROLINAS DURING
17/12Z-17/18Z TIME FRAME...THEN EWD ACROSS SERN VA AND SRN DELMARVA
BY ABOUT 18/00Z. MEANWHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT...NOW OVER CENTRAL
GULF...WILL CROSS CAROLINAS/GA/FL.

OVER NERN PACIFIC...SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY W OF NRN CA AND ORE...BETWEEN 140W-145W. TSTMS HAVE BEEN
DETECTED NEAR THIS PERTURBATION FOR MUCH OF ITS PASSAGE ACROSS
PACIFIC. ACCOMPANYING AREA OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ALOFT AND RELATED
COLD MIDLEVEL AIR MASS WITH THIS PERTURBATION MAY MAINTAIN GEN
THUNDER POTENTIAL ALONG ITS TRACK ENEWD INTO PORTIONS COASTAL NRN CA
AND PAC NW AROUND 18/06Z TIME FRAME...BEFORE TROUGH LIFTS NEWD AND
WEAKENS INLAND.

...SC/NC/SERN VA...
BAND OF DEEP-LAYER ASCENT -- RELATED TO LINE OF LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS NRN FL AND SRN GA -- IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE NRN FL AND GA BY START OF
PERIOD...EXTENDING INLAND PORTIONS NERN SC AND ERN NC. NARROW WEDGE
OF MODIFIED MARINE AIR MAY EXTEND INLAND DURING MORNING ACROSS THIS
REGION AND AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE BAND...AND ALONG/S OF WARM FRONT.
THIS AIR MASS SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY LOW-MID 60S F DEW
POINTS...BUT WEAK/SHORT-LIVED DIABATIC HEATING GIVEN PREDOMINANCE OF
ANTECEDENT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. LOW-LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION
SHOULD SUFFICE TO YIELD SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN NEUTRAL SFC-MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES...SUPPORTING MLCAPE IN 100-500 J/KG. AMIDST WHAT SHOULD
BE STG MID-UPPER FLOW AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND
PROFILE S OF WARM FRONT...MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND...WHETHER OR NOT CAPE IS DEEP ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION TO PRODUCE
MORE THAN SPORADIC THUNDER.

FARTHER W AND DURING AFTERNOON...RELATIVELY SHALLOW/POST-FRONTAL
CONVECTION -- INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TSTMS -- MAY OCCUR IN
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS CAROLINAS. COMPACT ZONE OF LARGE SCALE
ASCENT IN MIDLEVELS...ACCOMPANYING EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WILL
COMBINE WITH RESIDUAL/MRGL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SFC DIABATIC
HEATING TO OFFSET AMBIENT/POSTFRONTAL CAA. THIS IN TURN MAY
DESTABILIZE LOW-MIDLEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES DEEPLY ENOUGH FOR
SOME CONVECTION TO PRODUCE THUNDER. SMALL HAIL AND STG GUSTS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT GIVEN STRENGTH OF AMBIENT WIND PROFILES...HOWEVER FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE UNDER 200 J/KG MOST AREAS AND MUCAPE UP TO
500 J/KG.

...FL...
TRAILING PORTION OF CONVECTIVE/ASCENT BAND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
FROM 12Z ONWARD AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS PENINSULA...RELATED TO
COMBINATION OF
1. EJECTION OF UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS AWAY FROM AREA....AND
2. VEERING WARM-SECTOR FLOW THAT WILL SERVE TO REDUCE BOTH LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE.
GIVEN ALREADY FEEBLE LAPSE RATES OVER THIS REGION...LACK OF
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION ALOFT AND TENDENCY FOR WEAKENING BOUNDARY
LAYER FORCING WITH TIME WILL RENDER ONLY MRGL THUNDER
POTENTIAL...AND SVR THREAT TOO SMALL/CONDITIONAL FOR AOA 5-PERCENT
UNCONDITIONAL GRID PROBABILITIES.

..EDWARDS.. 01/17/2010

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 170525
SWODY2
SPC AC 170524

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 PM CST SAT JAN 16 2010

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

SRN STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THIS PERIOD AS ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF
IMPULSES NORTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET MOVES INTO THE WRN STATES
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT.

...CNTRL THROUGH SRN CA COASTAL AREAS...

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER A LARGE PART OF CA EARLY MONDAY
WHERE STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LIFT WILL OCCUR IN EXIT REGION OF
APPROACHING SUBTROPICAL JET. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AS
STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT NORTH OF THE JET
AXIS MOVE INLAND. GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED IN
COASTAL AREAS WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER DEWPOINTS
BENEATH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 60+ KT...AND SOME THREAT FOR CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST MAINLY FROM LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY SERVE AS A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED.

..DIAL.. 01/17/2010

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0006

ACUS11 KWNS 170522
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170522
SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-170645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0006
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 PM CST SAT JAN 16 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NE FL...SE GA AND SRN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 170522Z - 170645Z

A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NE FL...SE GA AND SRN SC
OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
ALTHOUGH A WW CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...WW IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE
MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT.

A LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM NRN FL ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR
NWD INTO ECNTRL GA WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE LINE OF
CONVECTION IS ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE AXIS OF A
STRENGTHENING 55 TO 65 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS
CREATING STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES AND A FEW BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS MAY DEVELOP AS THE LINE BECOMES MORE DEFINED AFTER 06Z. THE
LATEST WSR-88D VWPS FROM TALLAHASSEE AND JACKSONVILLE ARE SAMPLING
THE JET SHOWING 50 KT OF FLOW BELOW 1 KM. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER ELEMENTS IN THE LINE BUT
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK. IN ADDITION...A STABLE LAYER
EXISTS NEAR THE SFC. THESE TWO FACTORS SUGGEST THE WIND DAMAGE
THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL.

..BROYLES.. 01/17/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON 28698162 28578213 29248252 31198248 32328155 33248034
32887975 31288130 29838139 29108138 28698162

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KJAX [170439]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 170439
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1139 PM EST SAT JAN 16 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1110 PM NON-TSTM WND GST MANDARIN 30.15N 81.64W
01/16/2010 M43.00 MPH DUVAL FL TRAINED SPOTTER

A TRAINED SPOTTER MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 43 MPH AND
REPORTED SMALL LIMBS DOWN THROUGHOUT MANDARIN WITH
OCCASIONAL POWER FLICKERS.

&&

$$

SHULER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170054
SWODY1
SPC AC 170053

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 PM CST SAT JAN 16 2010

VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOME OF COASTAL W-CENTRAL/SWRN
FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN CONUS.
MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW -- INITIALLY ANALYZED OVER NWRN/N-CENTRAL TX
NEAR RED RIVER -- IS FCST TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS NRN LA
OVERNIGHT...OPENING INTO SMALL BUT INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR END
OF PERIOD OVER SWRN MS. MEANWHILE...SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH --
NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INVOF COASTAL SERN LA -- IS
EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS MIDDLE-ERN TN OVERNIGHT.

AT SFC...LOW ANALYZED NEAR MCB AT 23Z IS FCST TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS AL
OVERNIGHT AND OCCLUDE...AS TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS AL
COAST AND WRN FL PANHANDLE. ADJACENT WARM FRONT HAS BECOME
ILL-DEFINED BECAUSE OF PRIOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT BECOMES
SHARPER AGAIN FROM NEAR OCF TO ABOUT 50 SE SAV...ENEWD TO JUST S OF
BUOY 41004 AND OFFSHORE NC. SECONDARY LOW IS FCST TO FORM DURING
09Z-12Z TIME FRAME AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS ERN SC/SERN NC. DURING LATE
OVERNIGHT HOURS -- GENERALLY AFTER ABOUT 08Z...WARM FRONT MAY
IMPINGE ON NARROW COASTAL AREA BETWEEN SAV-MHX.

...FL...
AMBIENT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE ACROSS MOST OF
FL W COAST...ALTHOUGH SOME VEERING OF FLOW TONIGHT WILL REDUCE BOTH
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND HODOGRAPH SIZE. INITIAL LINE OF TSTMS
FROM OFFSHORE TBW AREA SWWD TO YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS SHOWN STG-SVR
CHARACTERISTICS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF ERN GULF...AS EVIDENT
FROM SATELLITE SIGNATURES AND LONG-RANGE RADAR REFLECTIVITY
PATTERNS. HOWEVER..CONVECTION CONSISTENTLY HAS WEAKENED WHEN APCHG
COAST...BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY STABLE/LOW-THETAE BOUNDARY LAYER
PRESENT ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL FL AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. A FEW
BOW ECHOES OR SUPERCELLS MAY SURVIVE TO COAST...THEREFORE WILL
MAINTAIN NARROW AREA OF CATEGORICAL-CRITERIA PROBABILITIES.

AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL/NRN FL -- CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS
LOW-MID 60S F...WILL UNDERGO ENOUGH DIABATIC COOLING TO MAINTAIN
VERY STG MLCINH INLAND...ALTHOUGH TBW SOUNDING SHOWED 300-400 J/KG
OF WEAKLY CAPPED MLCAPE. MOIST ADVECTION FROM HIGHER-THETAE AIR
MASS OVER S FL AND STRAITS WILL YIELD BUOYANCY ALONG SW COAST MORE
CLOSELY RESEMBLING EYW SOUNDING WITH BETWEEN 500-700 J/KG MLCAPE.
THIS MAY SUPPORT SOME MAINTENANCE OF OFFSHORE CONVECTION A SHORT
DISTANCE INLAND BEFORE WEAKENING.

FARTHER NW ACROSS FL PANHANDLE AND COASTAL BEND...AIR MASS BEHIND
THIS LINE HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY PRIOR CONVECTION/PRECIP...AND AREA
OF RELATIVELY COLD SST CONTRIBUTES TO SHALLOW STABLE LAYER OVER AND
DOWNSTREAM FROM APALACHEE BAY. STILL...SCATTERED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED...MOSTLY ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO
COLD FROPA AND MOVE NEWD FROM GULF.

...COASTAL GA/CAROLINAS...
VERY CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE. ALTHOUGH MORE
PROBABLE OFFSHORE...SFC-BASED SUPERCELL WITH TORNADO...OR DAMAGING
WIND FROM SMALL BOW ECHOES...CANNOT BE RULED OUT TOTALLY NEAR COAST
LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...UNCONDITIONAL POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS TOO
LOW TO UPGRADE TO CATEGORICAL SVR OUTLOOK...MAINLY BECAUSE IT
APPEARS THAT BUOYANCY WILL BE VERY WEAK TO NONEXISTENT FOR SFC-BASED
PARCELS.

AMBIENT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE...WITH 50-65
KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION.
ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS WILL EXIST INVOF SFC WARM FRONT...CONTRIBUTING
TO LIKELIHOOD OF 0-1 KM SRH EXCEEDING 300 J/KG FOR MOST PROBABLE
CELL MOTIONS. MAIN CONCERN IS LACK OF BUOYANCY AND RELATED STG
MLCINH EXPECTED. ATLANTIC AIR MASS S OF WARM FRONT STILL IS
UNDERGOING MODIFICATION...WITH SFC DEW POINTS GENERALLY MID 60S OVER
AND E OF THAT SEGMENT OF GULF STREAM OFF NRN FL...TRENDING TO LOW
60S INVOF WARM FRONT. THIS IS A FEW DEG F LESS THE EARLIER PROGS
FROM OPERATIONAL NAM-WRF...WHICH WAS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN THIS REGARD.
MOIST ADVECTION AND SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF MARINE MODIFICATION
SHOULD BOOST DEW POINTS TO MID 60S CLOSER TO WARM FRONT...BUT THIS
STILL MAY NOT YIELD SUFFICIENT THETAE TO RENDER SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE
INFLOW PARCELS. IMPORTANT LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE VERY WEAK LAPSE
RATES ALOFT...WHICH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE APPRECIABLY FROM
THOSE IN 00Z CHS RAOB. ALSO...EXTENSIVE...LONG-LASTING...ANTECEDENT
AREA OF PRECIP WILL MITIGATE INLAND DESTABILIZATION TENDENCIES.

..EDWARDS.. 01/17/2010

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KMFR [170030]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 170030
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
430 PM PST SAT JAN 16 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0429 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 SE COOS BAY 43.33N 124.18W
01/16/2010 M1.05 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 4 PM PST

&&

$$

SPILDE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 162002
SWODY1
SPC AC 162000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CST SAT JAN 16 2010

VALID 162000Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST FL...

...FL/SOUTHERN GA TO EASTERN SC...
FEW CHANGES TO ONGOING OUTLOOK/FORECAST SCENARIO...ESPECIALLY
REGARDING FL PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES
AROUND THE OVERNIGHT SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF
GA/SC/NC. A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME PER LATEST GUIDANCE...BUT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS OF POSSIBLE
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT/INLAND WARM FRONTAL PENETRATION WILL
CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK.

..GUYER.. 01/16/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2010/

...NERN GULF COAST ACROSS FL/SRN GA AND ERN SC...
DEEP SRN STREAM IMPULSE WILL MAINTAIN PRIMARY DEEP MOIST CONVECTIVE
THREAT ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION AND INTO THE SE ATLANTIC STATES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE
WRN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY TODAY WITH TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING SEWD IN ITS WAKE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT THIS
TRAILING SYSTEM WILL AMPLIFY MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY AND EJECT MAJORITY OF LEADING SYSTEM NEWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES/SRN APPALACHIANS. ALTHOUGH
MAJORITY OF ENERGY WILL EJECT ACROSS STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...SEASONABLY STRONG WNWLY MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST INCLUDING THE FL
PENINSULA. MORNING SOUNDINGS OVER FL INDICATE PRECEDING CAP AND ONLY
MODEST MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH VEERING SFC WINDS FROM SELY TO MORE SSELY
AND CAPPING WILL AID IN ADVECTING MID/UPPER 60S F DEW POINTS INTO
CENTRAL AND PARTS OF NRN FL THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT SHALLOW MOIST
CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE OVER SERN INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL FL DURING
THE DAY...WITH MAIN AREA OF TSTMS SPREADING ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL FL IN
THE FORM OF BROKEN BANDS AFTER DARK AS PRIMARY DEEP ASCENT SHIFTS
EWD INVOF WEAKENING NE-SW ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH.

MAIN LIMITING CONCERN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL BE LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT
INSTABILITY...WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MARGINAL MLCAPE /AOB 500 J KG-1/...HOWEVER LOW AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN. GIVEN MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER
AND INCREASING SHEAR...WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT PROBABILITIES OF
DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADOES FOR SLGT RISK ACROSS CENTRAL FL WITH LOWER
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE TSTMS INTO THE FL PANHANDLE AND NRN FL/FAR SRN
GA GIVEN THE MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY. WITH SOME INCREASE IN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE EVIDENT LATE TONIGHT INTO PARTS OF SERN GA/ERN
SC...LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ALSO REMAIN WARRANTED ACROSS THIS AREA
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

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KOTX [161830]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KOTX 161830
LSROTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1029 AM PST SAT JAN 16 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN BONNERS FERRY 48.69N 116.32W
01/16/2010 U0.00 INCH BOUNDARY ID LAW ENFORCEMENT

BONNERS FERRY SHERIFF REPORTED WASHOUT ON SELKIRK ROAD 9
MILES NORTH OF SANDPOINT.

&&

$$

RB

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 161731
SWODY2
SPC AC 161730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2010

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...EASTERN CAROLINAS...
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES/TN VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING TO THE
MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL AREAS BY EARLY MONDAY.
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW/ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL ACCORDINGLY ADVANCE
NORTHEASTWARD IN VICINITY OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN VICINITY OF THE
CAROLINAS/MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT/COASTAL AREAS. WITHIN A STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH 50-80 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS IN THE PRE-SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR. WHILE AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL/LOW RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS/TORNADOES WILL EXIST...THE DEGREE OF AN INLAND MARITIME WARM
SECTOR INFLUX/MODEST INSTABILITY ARE THE PRIMARY UNKNOWNS AND/OR
LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE ROBUST SURFACE BASED SEVERE RISK. IF IT
APPEARS A GREATER MARITIME TROPICAL INFLUX WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS/PERHAPS SOUTHEAST VA...THEN A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT
RISK COULD BE WARRANTED IN SUBSEQUENT DAY 1 OUTLOOKS.

...FL PENINSULA...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA DURING THE DAY...WITH ONGOING BANDS OF CONVECTION
LIKELY ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHILE THE PRE-COLD FRONTAL
AIRMASS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...AMBIENT VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A POSSIBLE ONGOING AND/OR DAYTIME SEVERE
RISK IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A TORNADO.
BUT...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH/PRIMARY FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING
AWAY FROM THE REGION...AND GRADUALLY VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS...THE
OVERALL SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED/MARGINAL
IN NATURE.

..GUYER.. 01/16/2010

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KMFR [161634]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 161634
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
834 AM PST SAT JAN 16 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0822 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNW BROOKINGS 42.12N 124.32W
01/16/2010 M1.80 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

1800 PST FRIDAY THROUGH 0800 SATURDAY.

&&

$$

STOCKTON

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 160952
SWOD48
SPC AC 160951

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2010

VALID 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...

GFS...MREF MEMBERS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY
6...BEFORE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE DAY 7-8. ECMWF HAS
DEMONSTRATED THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.

LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD. PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF
AIR WILL RETURN THROUGH THE WRN GULF AND ERN TX TUESDAY...SHIFTING
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COASTAL AREAS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMANATING FROM THE STRONG
PACIFIC UPPER JET WILL ADVANCE EWD AND INTERACT WITH THE RETURNING
MOIST AXIS. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO FORM WITHIN
DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION REGIME LATE TUESDAY IN ERN TX...THEN
EXPAND THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SRN PARTS OF THE GULF COAST
STATES DAY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. INITIAL STORMS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED BUT COULD POSE A HAIL THREAT. WITH CONTINUED INFLUX OF
MOISTURE...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SURFACE BASED WITH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN PARTS OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES.

GIVEN LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...A RISK AREA WILL NOT BE INTRODUCED AT
THIS TIME...BUT A RAMP UP IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED IN
LATER OUTLOOKS.

..DIAL.. 01/16/2010

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 160806
SWODY3
SPC AC 160805

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2010

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...SYNOPSIS...

QUASI-ZONAL PROGRESSIVE REGIME WITH A VERY ACTIVE SRN STREAM WILL
CHARACTERIZE THE UPPER PATTER OVER THE U.S. MONDAY. ANOTHER IN A
SERIES OF IMPULSES NORTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET WILL MOVE INTO
THE WRN STATES MONDAY AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT.

...CNTRL AND SRN CA COASTAL AREAS...

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
CNTRL AND NRN CA WITHIN ZONE OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LIFT NORTH OF
STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE DURING
THE DAY AS STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATTENDING THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVE INLAND. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER IN COASTAL
AREAS WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER DEWPOINTS BENEATH THE
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. GIVEN FORECAST 60+ KT LOW LEVEL
JET ATTENDING THE UPPER TROUGH...A MODEST THREAT FOR CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF FRONTAL ZONE.

..DIAL.. 01/16/2010

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KLCH [160650]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KLCH 160650
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1249 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1249 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 1 S SEA RIM STATE PARK 29.67N 94.05W
01/15/2010 M47.00 MPH GMZ450 TX C-MAN STATION

SRST2 MEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 34 MPH WITH A PEAK GUST
OF 47 MPH.

0100 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 1 E SABINE PASS 29.73N 93.87W
01/15/2010 M40.00 MPH GMZ430 LA C-MAN STATION

0110 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 SW JOHNSON BAYOU 29.69N 93.73W
01/15/2010 M44.00 MPH GMZ450 LA PUBLIC

PLATFORM IN WEST CAMERON BLOCK 17 REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS AT 44 WITH PK WIND GUST TO 65 MPH WHICH LASTED FOR
1 HOUR.

0146 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 24 SSE INTRACOASTAL CIT 29.44N 92.06W
01/15/2010 M59.00 MPH GMZ455 LA PUBLIC

REPORTED BY PLATFORM IN WEST CAMERON BLOCK 217.

0146 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 27 S HOLLY BEACH 29.39N 93.42W
01/15/2010 M61.00 MPH GMZ470 LA BROADCAST MEDIA

REPORTED BY PLATFORM IN WEST CAMERON BLOCK 267.

0200 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 S RUTHERFORD BEACH 29.59N 93.15W
01/15/2010 M50.00 MPH GMZ452 LA PUBLIC

REPORTED BY PLATFORM IN WEST CAMERON BLOCK 71.

0224 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW CAMERON 29.76N 93.34W
01/15/2010 M48.00 MPH GMZ450 LA OFFICIAL NWS OBS

CALCASIEU PASS NOS TIDE GAGE MEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF
39 MPH WITH A PEAK GUST OF 48 MPH.

0236 PM LOW ASTR TIDES 3 SW CAMERON 29.77N 93.34W
01/15/2010 GMZ450 LA OFFICIAL NWS OBS

CALCASIEU PASS NOS TIDE GAGE FELL FROM 2.1 FT MLLW AT
1954Z TO -0.15 FT MLLW AT 2036Z THEN ROSE TO 3.06 FT MLLW
AT 2118Z. EVENT OCCURRED WITHIN AN 84 MINUTE TIME SPAN.

0300 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 S LAKE CHARLES 30.14N 93.20W
01/15/2010 M51.00 MPH CALCASIEU LA ASOS

LCH ASOS REPORTED A 51 MPH WIND GUST

0300 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG LAKE CHARLES 30.21N 93.20W
01/15/2010 CALCASIEU LA PUBLIC

LIDS BLOWN OFF BARGES IN SHIP CHANNEL NEAR I-210 BRIDGE.

0448 PM LOW ASTR TIDES 11 SE PECAN ISLAND 29.56N 92.31W
01/15/2010 VERMILION LA OFFICIAL NWS OBS

FRESHWATER CANAL LOCKS NOS TIDE GAGE FELL FROM 2.56 FT
MLLW AT 2224Z TO -1.55 FT MLLW AT 2248Z THEN ROSE TO 3.66
FT MLLW AT 2300Z. EVENT OCCURRED WITHIN A 36 MINUTE TIME
SPAN.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

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KLCH [160648]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KLCH 160648
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1245 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1249 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 1 S SEA RIM STATE PARK 29.67N 94.05W
01/15/2010 M47.00 MPH GMZ450 TX C-MAN STATION

SRST2 MEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 34 MPH WITH A PEAK GUST
OF 47 MPH.

0224 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW CAMERON 29.76N 93.34W
01/15/2010 M48.00 MPH GMZ450 LA OFFICIAL NWS OBS

CALCASIEU PASS NOS TIDE GAGE MEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF
39 MPH WITH A PEAK GUST OF 48 MPH.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 160639
SWODY2
SPC AC 160638

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2010

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

MODELS HAVE CONVERGED TOWARD SIMILAR SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS
SWD THROUGH NRN MEXICO. VORT MAX LOCATED OVER SERN TX WILL EJECT
NEWD AND DEAMPLIFY AS IT REACHES THE SRN APPALACHIANS EARLY SUNDAY.
SECONDARY IMPULSE WILL DROP SWD INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
BEFORE EJECTING NEWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES...REACHING THE
CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INITIAL
OCCLUDED LOW SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NNEWD THROUGH THE TN AND OH
VALLEYS...WHILE SECONDARY LOW FORMS OVER NC WITHIN UPPER JET EXIT
REGION AND DEEPENS TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NWD THROUGH ERN NC...WHILE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST AND OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD SUNDAY EVENING. TRAILING PORTIONS OF FRONT WILL
CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA...REACHING THE SRN TIP OF THE
PENINSULA OVERNIGHT.

...ERN CAROLINAS...

LOW 60S DEWPOINTS SHOULD ADVECT INLAND ALONG STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL
JET SOUTH OF WARM FRONT OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS. INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN VERY MARGINAL DUE TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITHIN ZONE OF
DEEP ASCENT ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT. SHALLOW PRE-FRONTAL LOW TOPPED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS EARLY SUNDAY.
ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WITH LARGE
HODOGRAPHS. A CONDITIONAL THREAT WILL EXIST FOR MAINLY ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE
EVENT.

SOME POTENTIAL FOR PARTIAL CLEARING WILL EXIST IN DRY-SLOT REGION IN
WAKE OF PRE-FRONTAL STORMS AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. A LEAST WEAK
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE IF LOW CLOUDS CAN MIX
OUT. ADDITIONAL SHALLOW CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF
ENHANCED CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND ALONG
COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY COULD POSE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR MAINLY
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR MORE THAN LOW
SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

IF IT BEGINS TO APPEAR MORE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MIGHT BE NEEDED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS.

...FL...

PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE NRN AND
CNTRL FL PENINSULA EARLY SUNDAY. ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. SOME THREAT
WILL EXIST FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...BUT CONCERN IS THAT
THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN TOO MARGINAL. STRONGER
DEEP FORCING AND PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OF
THE PENINSULA DURING THE DAY...SUGGESTING OVERALL THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN LOW AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS SEWD.

..DIAL.. 01/16/2010

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KLCH [160636]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 160636
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1235 AM CST SAT JAN 16 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0236 PM LOW ASTR TIDES 3 SW CAMERON 29.77N 93.34W
01/15/2010 GMZ450 LA OFFICIAL NWS OBS

CALCASIEU PASS NOS TIDE GAGE FELL FROM 2.1 FT MLLW AT
1954Z TO -0.15 FT MLLW AT 2036Z THEN ROSE TO 3.06 FT MLLW
AT 2118Z. EVENT OCCURRED WITHIN AN 84 MINUTE TIME SPAN.

0448 PM LOW ASTR TIDES 11 SE PECAN ISLAND 29.56N 92.31W
01/15/2010 VERMILION LA OFFICIAL NWS OBS

FRESHWATER CANAL LOCKS NOS TIDE GAGE FELL FROM 2.56 FT
MLLW AT 2224Z TO -1.55 FT MLLW AT 2248Z THEN ROSE TO 3.66
FT MLLW AT 2300Z. EVENT OCCURRED WITHIN A 36 MINUTE TIME
SPAN.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 160558
SWODY1
SPC AC 160556

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 PM CST FRI JAN 15 2010

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CONUS...S OF NRN-STREAM FLOW
BELT ACROSS CANADIAN BORDER. BROADLY CYCLONIC SRN STREAM FLOW IS
FCST AROUND PROGRESSIVE TROUGH PREDICTED TO MOVE FROM SRN PLAINS EWD
ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY. MESO-ALPHA TO SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH IS
CHARACTERIZED BY COMPLEX INTERACTION OF THREE SMALLER-SCALE BUT
WELL-DEFINED PERTURBATIONS. ATTM...TWO DISTINCT/CLOSED CIRCULATIONS
ARE ANALYZED ALOFT -- ONE CENTERED OVER MIDDLE TX COASTAL
PLAINS...ANOTHER DIGGING SSEWD FROM SWRN KS. THIRD SIGNIFICANT
PERTURBATION WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN CLOSED BEFORE...AND IS
EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY ATTM OVER CENTRAL AND N-CENTRAL
MEX. KS LOW IS FCST TO PIVOT SEWD TOWARD N-CENTRAL TX THROUGH
17/00Z...THEN EWD ACROSS NRN LA DURING LATTER HALF OF
PERIOD...EFFECTIVELY ABSORBING LOW NOW OVER S TX. MEANWHILE...MEX
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FCST TO TURN NEWD...ACCELERATE AND
DEAMPLIFY...EJECTING ACROSS NWRN/N-CENTRAL GULF. OPERATIONAL
WRF/SPECTRAL...EARLIER ECMWF RUN AND MOST SREF MEMBERS REASONABLY
PROG THIS FEATURE TO MOVE NEWD OVER SERN LA AROUND 17/00Z...THEN
OVER SRN APPALACHIANS BY 17/12Z.

AT SFC...CYCLONE NOW ANALYZED OFFSHORE LOWER-MIDDLE TX COAST IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD OVER SWRN/S-CENTRAL LA EARLY IN PERIOD...BUT
WEAKENING AS OCCLUSION TRIPLE-POINT LOW DEVELOPS FARTHER E OVER
N-CENTRAL GULF. LATTER LOW...IN TURN...IS EXPECTED TO LIFT QUICKLY
NEWD ACROSS WRN PORTIONS FL PANHANDLE BETWEEN 16/18Z AND
16/00Z...LEAVING MARINE/WARM FRONTAL ZONE BEHIND OVER GULF WATERS.
SECONDARY WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NWD ACROSS ERN GA
AND SC LATE IN PERIOD...DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...FL PANHANDLE TO COASTAL BEND...SERN AL...SWRN GA...
SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT SVR...AND ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS...EACH ARE PROBABLE ALONG AND S OF MARINE FRONT AND SE OF
ERN SFC LOW. THEREFORE...KEY FACTOR FOR SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE
PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. EFFECTIVE
INFLOW LAYER WILL BE ROOTED AT OR VERY NEAR SFC ALONG AND S OF WARM
FRONT...AND ALONG AND E OF COLD FRONT TRAILING GENERALLY SWD/SSWWD
FROM ERN SFC LOW. HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE WARM FRONTAL ZONE MAY NOT
REACH LAND OVER THIS REGION GIVEN COMBINATION OF
1. STG ISALLOBARIC FORCING E AND NE OF LOW...MAINTAINING ELY
COMPONENT WITH RELATIVELY STABLE AND MORE INCOMPLETELY MODIFIED
CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES AT SFC...AND
2. EXTENSIVE TSTMS AND PRECIP LIKELY ACROSS NRN GULF...ON BOTH SIDES
OF WARM FRONT.

OBSERVED POCKET OF STABLE AIR OVER NERN GULF -- RELATED TO
RELATIVELY COLD/SHALLOW SHELF WATERS -- IS WELL-RECOGNIZED BY MOST
OPERATIONAL PROGS...AND EVERY SREF PARTICIPANT BUT THE 5 RSM
MEMBERS. SHALLOW LAYER OF THIS AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INLAND OVER ERN
PANHANDLE AND SWRN GA...AND SHOULD LIMIT SVR POTENTIAL WITH SQUALL
LINE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NERN GULF.

GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES AND MITIGATING FACTORS...SVR POTENTIAL
OVER LAND REMAINS VERY CONDITIONAL. THEREFORE...LOW-END
UNCONDITIONAL SVR PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
NOW...EMPHASIZING MRGL WIND AND TORNADO THREATS.

...PENINSULAR FL TO COASTAL CAROLINAS...
FOR SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT REASONS...SHALLOW LAYER OF RELATIVELY
COOL/STABLE AIR ALSO COULD PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SVR EVENT OVER THIS
REGION...HOWEVER STRENGTH OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LIKELIHOOD OF
ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE DOES COMPEL AT LEAST MRGL SVR WIND AND TORNADO
PROBABILITIES ATTM. SOME PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE
UPGRADED TO CATEGORICAL-THRESHOLD SVR PROBABILITIES IF
DESTABILIZATION TRENDS BEGIN TO APPEAR ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
THAN NOW PROGGED.

UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF
SQUALL LINE ACROSS PENINSULAR FL NNEWD TO COASTAL CAROLINAS ARE
RELATED MAINLY TO COMBINATION OF
1. ANTECEDENT LOW THETAE AND LONG UPSTREAM FETCH OF ONLY PARTLY
MODIFIED AIR MASS...PRECLUDING FULL MARITIME/TROPICAL RECOVERY
ACROSS THIS REGION PRIOR TO SQUALL LINE PASSAGE...AND
2. PATH OF SFC CYCLONE AND RELATED ISALLOBARIC PATTERN RESULTING IN
SUSTAINED/SLY COMPONENT OF SFC FLOW ACROSS DIABATICALLY COOLED
NOCTURNAL LANDMASS AND/OR INCOMPLETELY MODIFIED MARINE AIR.

..EDWARDS.. 01/16/2010

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KMFR [160511]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 160511
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
911 PM PST FRI JAN 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0910 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 ESE COOS BAY 43.33N 124.12W
01/15/2010 M1.03 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL FROM 2PM - 9PM PST.

&&

$$

DW

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