WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 189

WWUS20 KWNS 260303
SEL9
SPC WW 260303
ARZ000-MOZ000-260300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 189
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1003 PM CDT WED APR 25 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 189 ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

ARKANSAS
MISSOURI

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 187

WWUS20 KWNS 260203
SEL7
SPC WW 260203
ARZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-260200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 187
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
903 PM CDT WED APR 25 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 187 ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

ARKANSAS
KANSAS
MISSOURI
OKLAHOMA

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 260102
SWODY1
SPC AC 260100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT WED APR 25 2007

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OZARKS/SRN MO ACROSS
THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS AND INTO LOWER OH VALLEY...

..SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE SCNTRL CONUS THIS
EVENING. SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG
WITHIN FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC REGIME FROM THE OZARKS ACROSS THE MS
VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. A NUMBER OF SMALLER SCALE MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES/WIND MAXIMA WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE SERN/ERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LARGER SCALE CYCLONE AND ACT TO ENHANCE ASCENT AND TSTM
PROSPECTS ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE TN VALLEY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

..LOWER MS VALLEY ACROSS TN VALLEY TO LOWER OH VALLEY...
CONVECTIVELY GENERATED LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS SUPPORTING A
BROKEN ARC OF STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS FROM MS NNEWD TO
WRN/MIDDLE TN. THIS CONVECTION WAS WELL AHEAD OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT
WHICH WAS SITUATED FARTHER WEST. DESPITE DIURNAL DOWNWARD TREND IN
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND LOW LFC...AND
INCREASING LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS...SHOULD MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT. SOMEWHAT WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR
TO BE LIMITING MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS ATTM WITH MLCAPE TO AOB 1000
J/KG. HOWEVER...AS UPPER IMPULSES AND COLD FRONT APPROACH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...ISOLATED TORNADO AND WIND
DAMAGE POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THREAT MAY ALSO INCREASE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY WHERE WELL-DEFINED
QUASI-STATIONARY/WARM FRONT COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT/PERSISTENCE AS UPPER DYNAMICS INCREASE.

..WEST OF THE MS RIVER FROM MO TO SERN TX...
VIGOROUS STORMS ARE PLENTIFUL AND EXIST FROM NEAR THE SURFACE
LOW...IN MO...SWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS AR...AND THEN TRAIL
SWWD INTO TX. DESPITE STRONG FORCING AND SUPPORTIVE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE FRONT...MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY
APPEARS TO HAVE RECENTLY PEAKED IN INTENSITY. A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
MAY BE STORMS OVER LA/TX...AND NEAR THE LOW...WHERE INSTABILITY AND
FORCING RESPECTIVELY REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE. THE BULK
OF THIS CONVECTION MAY BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER A MORE HOSTILE/STABLE
ENVIRONMENT LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE PREFRONTAL/WARM SECTOR MCS
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTING A GENERAL DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE QPF ALONG
THE FRONT THOUGH LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF LARGE
SCALE FORCING/FLOW...AND POCKETS OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND GREATER
INSTABILITY...SEVERE HAIL AND/OR AND ISOLATED TORNADO WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY...AT LEAST FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS.

.CARBIN.. 04/26/2007

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 188

WWUS20 KWNS 260013
SEL8
SPC WW 260013
LAZ000-MSZ000-260200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 188
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
713 PM CDT WED APR 25 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 188 ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

LOUISIANA
MISSISSIPPI

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0590

ACUS11 KWNS 252338
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252338
MOZ000-ARZ000-260115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0590
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 PM CDT WED APR 25 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MO...SRN MO AND NCNTRL AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 189...

VALID 252338Z - 260115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 189 CONTINUES.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM SCNTRL
MO SWD INTO CNTRL AR FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE LINE MOVES EWD...A WW MAY
BECOME NECESSARY EAST OF WW 187 AND WW189 LATER THIS EVENING.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW OVER SW MO WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SWD ACROSS SW MO INTO WCNTRL AR. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS LOCATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND IS BEING SUPPORTED BY STRONG
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
A CNTRL PLAINS UPPER-LEVEL LOW. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS A 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET OVER ECNTRL AR AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A POCKET OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES APPROACHING 7.0 C/KM OVER CNTRL AND SRN MO. IN ADDITION...500
MB TEMPS ARE GENERALLY BELOW -16 C ACROSS THE WATCH AREAS. THIS
SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. SFC
DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 F ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN AR ALONG WITH BACKED
WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. AN ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH BOWING SEGMENTS MAINLY ACROSS
CNTRL AND SRN MO WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CURRENTLY VERY
STEEP.

.BROYLES.. 04/25/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...

34689138 34639290 35699315 36869331 38499386 38989311
38999235 38819184 38049140 37059120 35629105

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0589

ACUS11 KWNS 252315
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252315
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-260045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0589
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0615 PM CDT WED APR 25 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SW AR...NW LA..ERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 252315Z - 260045Z

A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SW AR...NW LA AND ERN TX
OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. HAIL WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER SW MO WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WRN AR AND SSWWD INTO NE TX. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS THE LUFKIN TX
AREA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO SFC HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT
STEEP...500 MB TEMPS ARE BELOW -14 C AND THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL SHEAR SHOWN ON REGIONAL PROFILERS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR HAIL
WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE IS RELATIVELY WEAK ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WINDS
HAVE VEERED AT THE LOW-LEVELS AND THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED
BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THESE FACTORS SHOULD KEEP ANY
THREAT MARGINAL THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.

.BROYLES.. 04/25/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...

30599510 30519566 30949568 31949475 32879395 33849350
34129340 33939270 32759299 32069347 30979454

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0588

ACUS11 KWNS 252240
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252240
MSZ000-LAZ000-260015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0588
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0540 PM CDT WED APR 25 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 188...

VALID 252240Z - 260015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 188 CONTINUES.

LOCAL RADAR DATA FROM JACKSON MS INDICATES OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS
OUTRUN MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE...WITH OUTFLOW NOW EXTENDING FROM AROUND
35 SE GWO/JAN/15 NNW MCB. THE SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF WW 188...AS EXTENSIVE AREA OF
HEAVY RAIN HAS STABILIZED THE AIRMASS.

NEW STORMS ARE FORMING ACROSS SERN LA THROUGH ERN MS/FAR WRN AL.
THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY AROUND 500 J/KG. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE
STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF MS ALTHOUGH IT IS LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL. 18Z
SOUNDINGS FROM JACKSON AND NEW ORLEANS SUGGESTED THERE WERE STILL
RATHER WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...WHICH HAS BEEN LIMITING LAPSE
RATES THUS FAR. WATER VAPOR LOOPS DEPICT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM ERN TX...WHICH WILL INCREASE LARGE SCALE FORCING AND
MAINTAIN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
EVENING.

.TAYLOR.. 04/25/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...

30979045 31079171 32889073 33639006 33648851

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 186

WWUS20 KWNS 252203
SEL6
SPC WW 252203
LAZ000-TXZ000-CWZ000-252200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 186
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
503 PM CDT WED APR 25 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 186 ISSUED AT 915 AM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

LOUISIANA
TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0587

ACUS11 KWNS 252006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252005
LAZ000-TXZ000-252100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0587
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 PM CDT WED APR 25 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 186...

VALID 252005Z - 252100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 186 CONTINUES.

LATEST RADAR LOOPS INDICATE BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE EXTENDS FROM
POE/LCH WITH THE SRN END JUST PASSING GALVESTON AS OF 20Z. THREAT
ACROSS EXTREME ERN TX SHOULD BE DIMINISHING SHORTLY.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WW 186 REMAINS
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM DAMAGING
WINDS/ISOLD TORNADOES. 18Z SOUNDING FROM LAKE CHARLES SUGGESTS
KINEMATIC PROFILE REMAINS SUPPORTIVE FOR EMBEDDED LEWPS/SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES. IN ADDITION...VWP DATA FROM THE LAKE CHARLES RADAR IS
VERY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR FROM 20-25
KT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEARLY 60 KT. UPSTREAM MEASURED WIND
OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE...AND AREAS NEAR AND
JUST NORTH OF LAKE CHARLES WILL LIKELY GET STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS WITH APPROACHING LINE SEGMENT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

.TAYLOR.. 04/25/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...HGX...

28079463 28709565 30159363 31019344 30989110 28059390

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 252002
SWODY1
SPC AC 252000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT WED APR 25 2007

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/TONIGHT FROM
PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD TOWARD
THE APPALACHIANS....

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN ACROSS PARTS OF
VA....

..SYNOPSIS...
DOWNSTREAM OF A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...A
TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO SPLIT INTO SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES AS IT
PROGRESSES INTO THE PACIFIC COAST. ONE IMPULSE IS ADVANCING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WHILE ANOTHER DIGS INTO THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE LATTER FEATURE IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE TOWARD THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS PERIOD...AS THE FORMER CONTINUES ACROSS AND BEGINS TO DIG TO
THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS THIS OCCURS...A BROAD SOUTHERN
BRANCH CLOSED LOW/TROUGH...NOW SLOWLY ADVANCING TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A NORTHEASTWARD
ACCELERATION. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL TAKE ON AN
INCREASING NEGATIVE TILT THIS EVENING...AS AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE
PIVOTS AROUND ITS SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY. IN RESPONSE...MODELS
STILL APPEAR TO SUGGEST THE REDEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET OFF THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH PARTS OF
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE BY LATE TONIGHT.

..LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES/TENNESSEE...
BOUNDARY LAYER BASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF ONGOING MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS PRESENTLY WEAK. BUT...WITH FURTHER SURFACE
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 50+ KT SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW IS STRONG AND ALREADY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL.
SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE STRENGTHENING
OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...BUT ONCE IT DOES... TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AS LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ENLARGE. THIS MAY
OCCUR BY THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI...WITH RISK CONTINUING AND POSSIBLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT
INTO ALABAMA.

..OZARK PLATEAU...
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT A NEW
STRONGER MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...WITHIN BROADER SCALE
SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW....HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER. THIS IS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL
COLD CORE OF UPPER SYSTEM...BUT ASSOCIATED FORCING IS CONTRIBUTING
TO ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/
SOUTHEAST KANSAS/WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. SURFACE HEATING JUST AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT SURGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS STEEPENED
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE OZARK
PLATEAU. THIS IS IN THE WAKE OF AN INITIAL WIND SHIFT/COOL SURGE
..BUT SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60F...
SUPPORTING MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO AROUND 500 J/KG. GIVEN SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 40 KT CYCLONIC 500 MB FLOW... ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ENHANCE RISK
OF HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO SEEMS POSSIBLE
WHERE SURFACE WINDS ARE SOUTHEASTERLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SURFACE
CYCLONE...ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS/ SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

..WESTERN STATES...
LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AS WELL AS ALONG THE SIERRA
NEVADA...WHERE ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING.
AND...INVERTED-V TYPE PROFILES ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION MAY PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS.

..MID ATLANTIC...
WEAK SURFACE LOW/FRONT TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...THE DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS...WHICH HAS EVOLVED ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VIRGINIA..COULD SUPPORT STRONG SURFACE GUSTS.

.KERR.. 04/25/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0586

ACUS11 KWNS 251946
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251946
ARZ000-252045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0586
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 PM CDT WED APR 25 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN/NRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251946Z - 252045Z

DEEPER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING ACROSS NERN OK
INTO NWRN AR...PER THICKENING CU FIELD AHEAD OF SHRINKING DRY SLOT.
IT APPEARS SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SEWD ALONG ADVANCING WIND SHIFT NEAR
THE OK/AR BORDER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE STRONGER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ACROSS AR IT APPEARS SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY
EVOLVE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN/NRN AR. IF SO...ISOLATED TORNADOES
COULD DEVELOP. WILL MONITOR THIS REGION FOR TORNADO WATCH.

.DARROW.. 04/25/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...

36029442 36459240 35979179 34729264 34609404

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 188

WWUS20 KWNS 251849
SEL8
SPC WW 251849
LAZ000-MSZ000-260200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 188
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM CDT WED APR 25 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
GREENWOOD MISSISSIPPI TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF NATCHEZ
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 186...WW 187...

DISCUSSION...SFC HEATING AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW
WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE REGION AHEAD OF EXISTING SQLN NOW
APPROACHING THE MS RVR IN AR/LA. STRONG SSWLY DEEP SHEAR
/ASSOCIATED WITH 60+ KT 500 MB SPEED MAX/ PARALLEL TO CONVECTIVE
BAND WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR EMBEDDED LEWPS/SUPERCELLS WITH
HIGH WIND...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

..CORFIDI

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0585

ACUS11 KWNS 251824
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251823
MSZ000-LAZ000-251930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0585
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 PM CDT WED APR 25 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...LA...SWRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 186...

VALID 251823Z - 251930Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 186
CONTINUES.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL
LA...WHERE UPDRAFTS HAVE INTERACTED WITH OLD CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY
OVER GRANT PARISH. ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY LOSING ITS
IDENTITY...LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK ZONE OF
CONFLUENCE/MINOR WIND SHIFT EXTENDING NEWD INTO CNTRL MS. THIS MAY
SERVE TO FOCUS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...OR PERHAPS MORE LIKELY
HIGHLIGHT AN AXIS WHERE UPDRAFTS MAY BE MORE EASILY SUSTAINED.
SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. WILL MONITOR AREAS
DOWNSTREAM INTO CNTRL MS FOR POSSIBLE WW.

.DARROW.. 04/25/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

31719208 33159073 32908898 31778910 30659127

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 187

WWUS20 KWNS 251818
SEL7
SPC WW 251818
ARZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-260200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 187
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
115 PM CDT WED APR 25 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 115 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF KNOB NOSTER MISSOURI TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
GROVE OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 186...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN
ERN QUADRANT OF UPR VORT ROUNDING BASE OF KS/OK UPR LOW.
CONVERGENCE INVOF ASSOCIATED SFC LOW AND CONTINUED HEATING SUGGEST
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR HAIL IN ENVIRONMENT OF MODEST DEEP SHEAR BENEATH
UPR COLD POCKET. POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO WILL ALSO
EXIST...MOST LIKELY NEAR INTERSECTION OF N/S COLD FRONT WITH W/E
ORIENTED CONVECTIVE BAND IN SE KS. BUT BACKGROUND PATTERN OF
RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT ANY SUCH ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE BRIEF.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22030.

..CORFIDI

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1

ACUS01 KWNS 251751
SWODY1
SPC AC 251749

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT WED APR 25 2007

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR MS/LWR TN VLYS NW
INTO SE KS/CNTRL MO AND SRN IL/IND...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...

CORRECTED FOR SLIGHT RISK HEADLINE FOR MID ATLANTIC STATES

..SYNOPSIS...
KS/OK BORDER UPR LOW SHOULD TRACK E TO NEAR BVO LATER TODAY BEFORE
ACCELERATING NE TO NEAR STL BY 12Z THURSDAY. 70+ KT 500 MB SPEED
MAX NOW IN SE QUADRANT OF SYSTEM SHOULD REDEVELOP E/NE INTO THE LWR
MS AND LWR TN VLYS TODAY...AND REACH THE WRN SLOPES OF THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS EARLY THURSDAY. HEIGHTS WILL RISE ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC CST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. IN
THE MEANTIME...THAT REGION WILL BE IN ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG
ZONAL SPEED MAX EXITING THE NEW ENGLAND CST.

AT LWR LEVELS...MAIN SFC LOW EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP SLOWLY ENE FROM
SE KS INTO SRN/CNTRL MO LATER TODAY...AND INTO CNTRL IL EARLY
THURSDAY.

..LWR MS VLY...
CONTINUING PRESENCE OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP SWLY SHEAR IN WARM SECTOR ACROSS
THE LWR MS/LWR TN VLY REGION TODAY/TONIGHT. THE LLJ HAS VEERED AND
DECREASED RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE INFLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG LEADING
EDGE OF EXISTING LA/SE TX SQLN. COUPLED WITH MODERATE SFC HEATING
AND ORIENTATION OF LINE PARALLEL TO DEEP SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR MAINTENANCE/INTENSIFICATION OF SQLN. EMBEDDED
LEWPS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR HIGH WIND...HAIL
AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES THROUGH TONIGHT.

..ERN OK/SE KS INTO MO/AR...
FILTERED SUNSHINE BENEATH MID LEVEL COLD POOL OF KS/OK UPR LOW WILL
RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION OVER SE KS/ERN OK
AND THE OZARKS REGION TODAY. WIND PROFILES LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO
DISPLAY WIDE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL VARIATION ACROSS THE REGION AS UPR
SYSTEM EDGES EWD...COMPLICATING ANTICIPATION OF PREDOMINANT STORM
TYPE. NEVERTHELESS...SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL EXIST THROUGHOUT THE
REGION TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH AN
ATTENDANT THREAT FOR HAIL/WIND AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES.
THIS LARGELY DIURNAL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOST CONCENTRATED NEAR SFC
LOW AND SWD ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO FAR ERN OK/WRN AR.

..MID ATLANTIC REGION...
AREA VWPS SHOW MODERATE /40 KT/ UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW OVER THE
VA/WV/MD/DE AREA IN ENTRANCE REGION OF NEW ENGLAND SPEED MAX...WHERE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN WITH STRONG SFC HEATING. A
SHALLOW BACK-DOOR FRONT HAS NOSED SE INTO THE VA PIEDMONT...WITH
LIGHT NEAR-SFC ELY FLOW IN ITS WAKE. THIS SETUP MAY SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF BAND OF STORMS ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE WV/MD
MOUNTAINS. WITH COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT POTENTIALLY FOSTERED BY
RELATIVELY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER ENVIRONMENT...STORMS MAY FORM INTO A
LINE THAT COULD POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON E/SE TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

.CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 04/25/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0584

ACUS11 KWNS 251730
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251730
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-251830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0584
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT WED APR 25 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...NERN OK...SWRN MO...NWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON

VALID 251730Z - 251830Z

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND
A WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE COORDINATED BETWEEN THE SPC AND THE
AFFECTED LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES SHORTLY.

BOUNDARY LAYER IS WARMING RAPIDLY AHEAD OF UPPER LOW WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR ACROSS THE QUAD STATE REGION OF KS/MO/OK/AR. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SOON INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY. LARGE HAIL APPEARS
TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK.

.DARROW.. 04/25/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

37869630 38219530 38089293 36659256 35909421 36499637

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 251724
SWODY2
SPC AC 251723

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT WED APR 25 2007

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THU/THU EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
ERN GULF STATES...OH VALLEY...NRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND MID
ATLANTIC COAST STATES....

..SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFICATION IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN NOW APPEARS UNDERWAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC COAST
STATES/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. AS
THIS OCCURS...UPPER TROUGH NOW PROGRESSING INTO THE PACIFIC COAST IS
FORECAST TO SPLIT...WITH ONE IMPULSE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU/BAJA REGION...AND ANOTHER ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES.
A THIRD IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD WITHIN STRONGER
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES...ACROSS THE CANADIAN PROVINCES.
AND...THE BROAD DOWNSTREAM SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION.

A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING THE LATTER FEATURE APPEARS
LIKELY TO MIGRATE FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH THE PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT
ADVANCING TO ITS SOUTH/EAST...TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. MODELS
INDICATE THAT A SURFACE FRONT...STALLING TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TODAY...WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC COAST STATES...BUT THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE THURSDAY
OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

..EASTERN STATES...
AN INFLUX OF 60F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS
ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALSO EXPECTED ON
SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...DESTABILIZATION SEEMS LIKELY TO BE LIMITED
BY CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION...WHICH MAY BE ONGOING AT 12Z
THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION PROBABLY WILL
BE OCCURRING IN PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENT BAND NEAR A 30-50 KT SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS...ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH CENTRAL
ALABAMA. LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT
RISK OF SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES...IN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE BUT DEEP
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY A
BROKEN SQUALL LINE AS IT SLOWLY ADVANCES EASTWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN/WESTERN GEORGIA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH EVOLVING LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS
EARLY THURSDAY. AND...THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO
CONSIDERABLE...PERHAPS VIGOROUS...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR APPRECIABLE
SURFACE HEATING/BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION SEEMS TO BE IN FAIRLY
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS ...AND IN
A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE VICINITY OF WARM
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. 50-70KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500
MB FLOW TO THE EAST OF UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.

AS 30-50 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO/WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON... LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME SUFFICIENTLY ENLARGED TO ENHANCE A RISK FOR
TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS BELT OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
DEVELOP TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS CLOSER TO/SHORTLY
AFTER 27/00Z. AND...A LINGERING SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED
HODOGRAPHS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TORNADOES
INCREASING DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

.KERR.. 04/25/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251631
SWODY1
SPC AC 251629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT WED APR 25 2007

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR MS/LWR TN VLYS NW
INTO SE KS/CNTRL MO AND SRN IL/IND...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ...

..SYNOPSIS...
KS/OK BORDER UPR LOW SHOULD TRACK E TO NEAR BVO LATER TODAY BEFORE
ACCELERATING NE TO NEAR STL BY 12Z THURSDAY. 70+ KT 500 MB SPEED
MAX NOW IN SE QUADRANT OF SYSTEM SHOULD REDEVELOP E/NE INTO THE LWR
MS AND LWR TN VLYS TODAY...AND REACH THE WRN SLOPES OF THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS EARLY THURSDAY. HEIGHTS WILL RISE ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC CST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. IN
THE MEANTIME...THAT REGION WILL BE IN ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG
ZONAL SPEED MAX EXITING THE NEW ENGLAND CST.

AT LWR LEVELS...MAIN SFC LOW EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP SLOWLY ENE FROM
SE KS INTO SRN/CNTRL MO LATER TODAY...AND INTO CNTRL IL EARLY
THURSDAY.

..LWR MS VLY...
CONTINUING PRESENCE OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP SWLY SHEAR IN WARM SECTOR ACROSS
THE LWR MS/LWR TN VLY REGION TODAY/TONIGHT. THE LLJ HAS VEERED AND
DECREASED RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE INFLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG LEADING
EDGE OF EXISTING LA/SE TX SQLN. COUPLED WITH MODERATE SFC HEATING
AND ORIENTATION OF LINE PARALLEL TO DEEP SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR MAINTENANCE/INTENSIFICATION OF SQLN. EMBEDDED
LEWPS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR HIGH WIND...HAIL
AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES THROUGH TONIGHT.

..ERN OK/SE KS INTO MO/AR...
FILTERED SUNSHINE BENEATH MID LEVEL COLD POOL OF KS/OK UPR LOW WILL
RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION OVER SE KS/ERN OK
AND THE OZARKS REGION TODAY. WIND PROFILES LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO
DISPLAY WIDE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL VARIATION ACROSS THE REGION AS UPR
SYSTEM EDGES EWD...COMPLICATING ANTICIPATION OF PREDOMINANT STORM
TYPE. NEVERTHELESS...SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL EXIST THROUGHOUT THE
REGION TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH AN
ATTENDANT THREAT FOR HAIL/WIND AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES.
THIS LARGELY DIURNAL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOST CONCENTRATED NEAR SFC
LOW AND SWD ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO FAR ERN OK/WRN AR.

..MID ATLANTIC REGION...
AREA VWPS SHOW MODERATE /40 KT/ UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW OVER THE
VA/WV/MD/DE AREA IN ENTRANCE REGION OF NEW ENGLAND SPEED MAX...WHERE
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN WITH STRONG SFC HEATING. A
SHALLOW BACK-DOOR FRONT HAS NOSED SE INTO THE VA PIEDMONT...WITH
LIGHT NEAR-SFC ELY FLOW IN ITS WAKE. THIS SETUP MAY SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF BAND OF STORMS ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE WV/MD
MOUNTAINS. WITH COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT POTENTIALLY FOSTERED BY
RELATIVELY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER ENVIRONMENT...STORMS MAY FORM INTO A
LINE THAT COULD POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON E/SE TOWARD THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

.CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 04/25/2007

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WATCHES: Test...tornado Watch Number 9001...test

WWUS20 KWNS 251500
SEL1
SPC WW 251500
SDZ000-251700-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TEST...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 9001...TEST
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1005 AM CDT WED APR 25 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A...TEST...
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1005 AM UNTIL NOON CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TEST TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF RAPID
CITY SOUTH DAKOTA TO 20 MILES EAST OF BROOKINGS SOUTH DAKOTA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THIS IS A TEST WATCH FOR SEVERE WEATHER PREPAREDNESS
WEEK IN SOUTH DAKOTA.

..THIS IS A TEST...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

..MCCARTHY

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0582

ACUS11 KWNS 251400
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251400
LAZ000-TXZ000-251500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0582
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0900 AM CDT WED APR 25 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX/SRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON

VALID 251400Z - 251500Z

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS
AND A WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE COORDINATED BETWEEN THE SPC AND THE
AFFECTED LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES SHORTLY. THIS WATCH
WILL REPLACE TORNADO WATCH 185.

.TAYLOR.. 04/25/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...

28799576 30889529 31419414 31259194 30389179 29549203
28769499

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0581

ACUS11 KWNS 251236
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251236
LAZ000-TXZ000-251400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0581
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 AM CDT WED APR 25 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE AND UPPER TX COAST

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 185...

VALID 251236Z - 251400Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 185 CONTINUES.

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
CONTINUES ACROSS WW AREA...NAMELY SRN PORTION.

WHILE LEADING MCS HAS GENERALLY MOVED E INTO WRN/CNTRL LA...BANDS OF
TSTMS ORIENTED IN SW-NE FASHION HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITHIN
THE PAST HOUR FROM DEWITT TO LIVE OAK COUNTIES AND HARRIS TO WHARTON
COUNTIES. 12Z CRP SOUNDING INDICATED A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR
MASS WITH AN MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG. HOWEVER...A PRONOUNCED CAP
WAS STILL OBSERVED AROUND 750 MB. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE MECHANISM FORCING THIS MORE INTENSE STORM DEVELOPMENT AND
WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY IS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE WEAKENING MCS COLD
POOL OR ROOTED IN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SAMPLED BY THE CRP SOUNDING.

VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORM
DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN ROOT
INTO MODERATELY UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO REMAINS POSSIBLE.

.MEAD.. 04/25/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...

31109518 31259444 31329327 29859370 29849308 29319322
28979447 28229557 27899627 27519688 27999763 28189806
28679824 29389681 29859709

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251229
SWODY1
SPC AC 251226

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 AM CDT WED APR 25 2007

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY TO TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS...

..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED NWRN OK/KS BORDER WILL CONTINUE EWD TO SWRN
MO BY THU AM. SURFACE LOW NCENTRAL OK WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD
TO NCENTRAL TX THEN SWWD TO VICINITY DRT. ACTIVE PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION TUESDAY HAS SHIFTED EWD ACROSS MID MS VALLEY SWWD TO TX
COAST WELL AHEAD OF FRONT. THE POTENT WARM SECTOR TUESDAY OVER THE
SRN PLAINS HAS BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY STABILIZED BY THE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY INFLUX OF GULF AIRMASS HAS LESSENED AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW HAS WEAKENED AND VEERED.

FRONTAL BAND EXTENDS EWD ACROSS OH VALLEY TO OFFSHORE DELMARVA.
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND S OF
FRONTAL ZONE PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

.LOWER MO VALLEY/ERN PORTION OF SRN PLAINS...
DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID IN DESTABILIZING AIRMASS AHEAD OF
SURFACE/UPPER LOW FROM SERN KS/NERN OK EWD INTO MO/AR. LOW/MID 70S
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO MLCAPE ABOVE 1000 J/KG. MID LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF SURFACE/UPPER LOW WILL
LEAD TO SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW OF UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR LOW
TOPPED SUPERCELLS INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.
ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN MO/NRN AR PRIOR TO WEAKENING
THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

..MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY...
CLOUD COVER OF WEAKENING MCS ERN TX INTO LA WILL RESULT IN ONLY SLOW
DESTABILIZATION OF THE WARM SECTOR TODAY ACROSS MS VALLEY GIVEN THE
WEAKENING OF THE GULF MOISTURE INFLOW. HOWEVER AS BAND OF STRONG
MID/UPPER WINDS ROTATE EWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS/GULF STATES AND TN
VALLEY SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT ALONG
AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MLCAPES
GENERALLY NO GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG AND LAPSE RATES LESS THAN
7C/KM...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE WIND DAMAGE WITH STORMS THAT
DEVELOP LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS ALONG WITH HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES
POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY IF SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP.

..OH VALLEY EWD TO DELMARVA...
WHILE INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED WITH LAPSE RATES AROUND
6C/KM AND MLCAPES LESS THAN 800 J/KG...40-50KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUGGESTS ISOLATED SEVERE WIND EVENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. THREAT AREA WOULD EXTEND ALONG AND JUST S OF FRONTAL
ZONE EWD ACROSS OH VALLEY TO DELMARVA.

.HALES/GUYER.. 04/25/2007

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 183

WWUS20 KWNS 251103
SEL3
SPC WW 251103
TXZ000-251100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 183
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
603 AM CDT WED APR 25 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 183 ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

TEXAS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0580

ACUS11 KWNS 251056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251055
OKZ000-KSZ000-251300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0580
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0555 AM CDT WED APR 25 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS INTO NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 251055Z - 251300Z

A HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KS/FAR NORTH
CENTRAL OK...AND EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHEAST KS/NORTHEAST OK THROUGH
THE MORNING. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED EARLY THIS
MORNING.

PRE-DAWN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES NEARLY STACKED LOW MIGRATING
EASTWARD ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER...WITH A DRY SLOT WRAPPING
NORTH/NORTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN KS AND A 1001 MB SURFACE LOW
CENTERED NEAR PONCA CITY OK. BENEATH THE UPPER LOW...STORMS HAVE
INCREASED ACROSS CENTRAL KS OVER THE PAST HOUR...INCLUDING A STRONG
STORM BETWEEN RUSSELL AND GREAT BEND AS OF 1030Z. SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE/SREF CONSENSUS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL KS/FAR
NORTH CENTRAL OK...AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO SOUTHEAST
KS/NORTHEAST OK LATER THIS MORNING. AN AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-20 C AT 500 MB/ AND STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL
FAVOR HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS STORMS. 06Z OBSERVED
SOUNDING FROM LAMONT OK FEATURED A 700-500 MB LAPSE RATE IN EXCESS
OF 8.0 C/KM.

IT IS CURRENTLY THOUGHT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
ISOLATED/MARGINAL SUCH THAT A WATCH WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL
TRENDS.

.GUYER.. 04/25/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

37469921 38199933 38759876 38919722 38159586 37589559
37149560 36589599 36509680 36749808 37009880

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0579

ACUS11 KWNS 250930
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250929
LAZ000-TXZ000-251100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0579
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0429 AM CDT WED APR 25 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE AND UPPER TX COAST INTO WRN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 185...

VALID 250929Z - 251100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 185 CONTINUES.

POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 10-11Z ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW AREA...POSSIBLY
INTO WRN LA. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL
DOWNSTREAM WW.

AS OF 0915Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A
QUASI-LINEAR...FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM
NEAR GGG SWD TO UTS TO JUST W OF HOU. CLOSE INSPECTION OF THESE
DATA SHOW THAT SYSTEM COLD POOL HAS SURGED WELL AHEAD /30-40 MILES
IN SOME AREAS/ OF MAIN CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS...PERHAPS INDICATING THAT
CAP REMAINS STRONG OVER INFLOW AIR MASS AND CONSIDERABLE ASCENT
ABOVE COLD POOL IS NECESSARY FOR PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFC.

DESPITE THIS POTENTIAL CAPPING ISSUE...SYSTEM MOTION OF 40-45 KT
COUPLED WITH MODERATELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR INDICATE A CONTINUED
THREAT OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS OVER ERN PORTIONS OF WW 185
AREA...POTENTIALLY INTO SWRN LA BY 10-11Z. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE.

.MEAD.. 04/25/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

31319428 31279339 29899352 29809309 29249327 29079414
28319531 27479685 28519838 29309703 30259690 30639705
31299593 31669586 31769525

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 182

WWUS20 KWNS 250903
SEL2
SPC WW 250903
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-250900-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 182
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
403 AM CDT WED APR 25 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 182 ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

ARKANSAS
OKLAHOMA
TEXAS

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 250739
SWODY3
SPC AC 250738

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 AM CDT WED APR 25 2007

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...

..SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE ERN U.S. AND
APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. EARLY
FRIDAY THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SURFACE LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES SWD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EAST AND OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT.

FARTHER WEST A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SEWD
INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS SOLUTIONS
DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE WITH THE NAM MUCH FARTHER SOUTH
THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS.

..CAROLINAS THROUGH MID ATLANTIC REGION...

BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL HAVE ADVECTED THROUGH THE
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC. LEAD
VORT MAX WILL LIKELY EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE NERN STATES DURING THE
DAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN ITS WAKE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THIS MAY RESULT IN A DECREASE OF ANY ONGOING CONVECTION AND
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE HEATING. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
AND AS SECONDARY VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
ADVANCES EWD THROUGH THE AREA. WARM SECTOR DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNIDIRECTIONAL SSWLY...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT.

..WRN TX...

SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE RETURN OF PARTIALLY
MODIFIED GULF AIR NWD THROUGH WRN TX BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN DURING THE DAY BUT SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD PERSIST.
PRESENT UNCERTAINTY IS CONVECTIVE INITIATION GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR EML
TO ADVECT EWD. THE MORE NWD TRACK OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHORTWAVE
WOULD SUGGEST THE STRONGER ASCENT AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
REMAIN WELL N OF TX...WHILE THE NAM SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST A GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION FARTHER S. IF STORMS CAN
INITIATE...THREAT WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...WILL INTRODUCE ONLY LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

.DIAL.. 04/25/2007

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 184

WWUS20 KWNS 250646
SEL4
SPC WW 250646
ARZ000-MOZ000-250800-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 184
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
146 AM CDT WED APR 25 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 184 ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

ARKANSAS
MISSOURI

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 181

WWUS20 KWNS 250611
SEL1
SPC WW 250611
ARZ000-250700-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 181
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
111 AM CDT WED APR 25 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 181 ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

ARKANSAS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 250556
SWODY1
SPC AC 250554

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT WED APR 25 2007

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY TO TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS...

..SYNOPSIS...
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW LARGE CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTING ENEWD FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS AT 12Z TODAY TO THE LOWER
MO AND LOWER MS VALLEYS BY 12Z THURSDAY. SHORT WAVE TROUGH...
CURRENTLY TRANSLATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER WRN
TX...IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS ERN TX TO THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH NRN TX TO AR DURING SECOND HALF OF PERIOD AIDING IN
CLOSED UPPER LOW/TROUGH TO BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED INTO LOWER
MS/TN VALLEYS LATER TONIGHT.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM NRN OK
INTO CENTRAL MO THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT
LIFTING SLOWLY NWD ACROSS NRN HALF OF OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION. MEANWHILE...PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD FROM
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM ERN OK THROUGH ERN TX BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN REACH THE LOWER TN VALLEY INTO MS AND SERN
LA BY 12Z THURSDAY.

..ERN TX THROUGH LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...
AT 12Z TODAY...ONE TO TWO POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE MCS/S ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH ERN TX. AS CLOSED
LOW PROGRESSES EWD...THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND LIKELY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS DOWNSTREAM
AIR MASS DESTABILIZES. SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE STRONGEST EWD FROM
SRN LA AND MS ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
UPSTREAM MCS/S. THIS COMBINED WITH MOISTURE RETURN /SURFACE
DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 60S REACHING NRN LA/CENTRAL MS TO SWRN AL/ BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000
J/KG. 60-70 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET AND A SWLY LLJ BOTH TRANSLATING
EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL RESULT IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES BEING
THE PRIMARY THREATS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

A SECOND ROUND OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD FROM SERN OK/ERN
TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS COLD FRONT MOVES EWD INTO THIS REGION. ASCENT AHEAD OF
SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL AID IN MAINTAINING CONVECTIVE THREAT
DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
TEND TO DECREASE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ TO 40-50 KT WOULD SUGGEST A THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EWD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT.

..ERN KS/ERN OK THROUGH MO/AR TO LOWER OH VALLEY...
DRY SLOT WITH UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NEWD FROM NERN TX
THROUGH ERN OK/ SERN KS INTO PARTS OF MO/WRN AR THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SURFACE HEATING AND STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES. MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...GIVEN WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS...THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD
BE WEAKER EWD INTO LOWER OH VALLEY. TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS
MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW AND ALONG WARM FRONT...WITH
EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT SWD ALONG COLD FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED
STORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEING PRIMARY THREATS.

ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BENEATH COLD POOL
WITH CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WHERE AMBIENT VORTICITY WITH NEARLY
STACKED LOWS WILL FAVOR STORM ROTATION. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALSO INDICATE STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH STRONG
SURFACE VORTICITY IN THE VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE BOUNDARIES AIDING IN TORNADO POTENTIAL.

..SRN OH/WV EWD TO MID ATLANTIC STATES...
FARTHER E...WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE AND ACCOMPANYING 50-60 WLY MID
LEVEL JET SHOULD AID IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING W-E FROM WV THROUGH VA TO DELMARVA. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...WEAK INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS. THUS...LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES FOR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST EWD FROM SRN
OH/WV TO DELMARVA.

.PETERS/GUYER.. 04/25/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0576

ACUS11 KWNS 250545
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250545
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-250715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0576
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT WED APR 25 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...MO BOOTHEEL / FAR NERN AR / WRN KY / WRN TN+

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 184...

VALID 250545Z - 250715Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 184
CONTINUES.

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENT. THIS THREAT WILL
LIKELY EXTEND E OF WW 184 BY 06Z. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

AS OF 0530Z...RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A BOWING LINE SEGMENT FROM
BUTLER COUNTY MO SWD THROUGH CLAY...DUNKLIN AND CRAIGHEAD COUNTIES
AR MOVING 260/40-45 KT. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A NARROW AXIS OF
RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE ALONG THE MS RIVER...WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
DECREASING POINTS E. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITHIN THIS NARROW
INSTABILITY AXIS INDICATE A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /LARGELY DUE TO
POOR LAPSE RATES/ WITH MLCAPES OF 100-200 J/KG.

GIVEN THE RELATIVELY FAST SYSTEM MOTIONS AND MODERATE STRENGTH OF
VERTICAL SHEAR...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE AS THIS COMPLEX MOVES THROUGH REMAINING PORTION OF
COMPARABLY STRONGER INSTABILITY. THEREAFTER..SOME WIND THREAT MAY
CONTINUE....THOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE
WEAK...LIKELY LIMITING MORE ORGANIZED WIND POTENTIAL.

.MEAD.. 04/25/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

37439028 37218900 35938931 35319006 35329110 35819120
35909155 37259131

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0574

ACUS11 KWNS 250415
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250414
INZ000-ILZ000-250545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0574
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL IL/CENTRAL INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 250414Z - 250545Z

MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL IL INTO CENTRAL INDIANA INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECTED
MARGINAL/LIMITED NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A
WATCH ISSUANCE.

CURRENT ANALYSIS FEATURES WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL IL
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA/FAR SOUTHWEST OH. ALTHOUGH PERHAPS
IMPEDED SOMEWHAT BY MATURE MCS NEARING THE MO BOOTHEEL AS OF
04Z...BRANCH OF A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET APPEARS TO BE
IMPINGING ON THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT PER REGIONAL PROFILERS.
AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS
CENTRAL IL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE PAST HOUR. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY MODEST -- SOURCE REGION MUCAPE VALUES UP
TO 1000 J/KG JUST SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN IL PER RUC SOUNDINGS --
STRONG SHEAR IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER/HIGH SRH WILL BE CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION...WHICH MAY ENHANCE HAIL POTENTIAL.

.GUYER.. 04/25/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

40719049 40758927 40618777 40348665 40088597 39508547
39078569 39518746 39648936 39719027 40159093

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