DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 010030
SWODY1
SPC AC 010028

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 PM CDT SUN OCT 31 2010

VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL ROCKIES...
SRN EXTENT OF A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS
THE NRN ROCKIES AND ALBERTA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL AMPLIFY
SEWD WITHIN SRN BRANCH OF SPLIT FLOW REGIME...REACHING THE CENTRAL/
SRN ROCKIES BY 12Z MONDAY. ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A MIDLEVEL
IMPULSE...NOW MOVING INTO WRN WY...AND COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES
/-20 TO -22 C AT H5/ ATOP AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION
HAD SUPPORTED A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY TO NRN WY. ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR
OVERNIGHT...VERY WEAK INSTABILITY SUGGESTS COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
SPARSE...MAINTAINING THE CURRENT NO TSTM FORECAST ACROSS THE CONUS.

...WRN GULF COAST...
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE THIS
FORECAST PERIOD FROM THE TX COASTAL PLAIN TO SRN LA...NEGLIGIBLE
FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THIS REGION WILL PRECLUDE TSTM
DEVELOPMENT.

..PETERS.. 11/01/2010

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KABQ [312247]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 312247
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
446 PM MDT SUN OCT 31 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0250 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 2 NNW ANGEL FIRE 36.42N 105.29W
10/31/2010 M40 MPH COLFAX NM AWOS

KAXX AWOS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1002199

$$

GUYER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 311949
SWODY1
SPC AC 311947

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 PM CDT SUN OCT 31 2010

VALID 312000Z - 011200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

NO CHANGES NECESSARY FOR THE 20Z OUTLOOK.

..BROYLES.. 10/31/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CDT SUN OCT 31 2010/

A RELATIVELY DRY STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE UNITED STATES WILL
PRECLUDE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY.

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KEKA [311823]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KEKA 311823
LSREKA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1123 AM PDT SUN OCT 31 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 W ETTERSBURG 40.12N 124.07W
10/31/2010 E2.18 INCH HUMBOLDT CA TRAINED SPOTTER

NEAR HONEYDEW IN CAPE MENDOCINO...LIGHT-HEAVY RAIN QUITE
STEADY. FOG RESTRICTING VISIBILITY.

&&

$$

ASHFORD

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 311729
SWODY2
SPC AC 311728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT SUN OCT 31 2010

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX HILL
COUNTRY AND TX COASTAL PLAINS...

...SRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TONIGHT
AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN NWD ONTO THE TX COASTAL
PLAIN AND INTO THE ARKLATEX MONDAY AFTERNOON WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS
SHOULD REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S F WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN CNTRL AND EAST TX BY
MONDAY AT 21Z SHOW MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE WITH
MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES MAINLY DUE TO DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AS STORMS INITIATE ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING
SEWD ACROSS THE REGION. THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT
DEVELOPING NUMEROUS STORMS FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY NEWD INTO THE
ARKLATEX WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN
AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. IN SPITE OF WHAT COULD BE A LATE INITIATION...A SEVERE
THREAT COULD EXIST IN THE TX COASTAL PLAIN AND TX HILL COUNTRY
MONDAY EVENING AS THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BECAUSE OF THE INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MONDAY EVENING...A FEW STORMS COULD ROTATE RESULTING IN A HAIL AND
WIND DAMAGE THREAT. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT RISK FROM
AROUND SAN ANTONIO ENEWD TO THE HOUSTON AND COLLEGE STATION AREAS.
FURTHER TO THE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND WRN LA...THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL MAINLY DUE TO WEAKER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR.

..BROYLES.. 10/31/2010

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KKEY [311719]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 311719
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
118 PM EDT SUN OCT 31 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1246 PM WATER SPOUT 2 N BOCA CHICA 24.62N 81.70W
10/31/2010 GMZ032 FL TRAINED SPOTTER

A TRAINED OBSERVER AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION ON BOCA CHICA
KEY REPORTED A WATERSPOUT 2 MILES NORTH OF THE AIRFIELD.
THE VISIBLE FUNNEL EXTENDED TO THE WATER SURFACE.
DURATION 16 MINUTES.

&&

$$

PFUENTES

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 311555
SWODY1
SPC AC 311554

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1054 AM CDT SUN OCT 31 2010

VALID 311630Z - 011200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

A RELATIVELY DRY STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE UNITED STATES WILL
PRECLUDE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY.

..HART/ROGERS.. 10/31/2010

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KMFR [311502]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 311502
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
801 AM PDT SUN OCT 31 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNW BROOKINGS 42.12N 124.32W
10/31/2010 M2.14 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL RAINFALL ENDING AT 8 AM THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

STAVISH

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KMFR [311448]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 311448
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
748 AM PDT SUN OCT 31 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 SW MERLIN 42.46N 123.49W
10/31/2010 M1.10 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT WHEN RAIN BEGAN.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN NE BROOKINGS 42.06N 124.29W
10/31/2010 M0.91 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL RAINFALL SINCE 7PM LAST NIGHT WHEN RAIN BEGAN. RAIN
HAS EASED TO A DRIZZLE THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

WOODHEAD

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 311239
SWODY1
SPC AC 311238

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 AM CDT SUN OCT 31 2010

VALID 311300Z - 011200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL WEAKEN WHILE
ENCOUNTERING A CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME...WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE
PAC NW BEGINS TO AMPLIFY SEWD OVER CO/NM BY EARLY MONDAY IN RESPONSE
TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT RISES. AT THE SURFACE...A REMNANT LEE CYCLONE
WILL DEVELOP SLOWLY SWD ACROSS WRN OK TOWARD NW TX...AND THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A WEAK RETURN FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NW GULF COAST.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE NW GULF COAST AND
CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION BY EARLY MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF
NEGLIGIBLE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE AREA OF DESTABILIZATION.

..THOMPSON/STOPPKOTTE.. 10/31/2010

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 310830
SWOD48
SPC AC 310829

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 AM CDT SUN OCT 31 2010

VALID 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...

SUBTLE BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF AN EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH. THE LATEST ECMWF IS NOTABLY MORE AGGRESSIVE ALLOWING TX
UPPER LOW TO EJECT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FL DURING THE DAY5
PERIOD...PRIMARILY DUE TO STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP
UPSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH WILL INDUCE HEIGHT FALLS AT LOWER
LATITUDES THAN THE GFS. EVEN SO THE GFS DOES EVENTUALLY ALLOW THE
TX LOW TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING SHEAR. IF
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN RETURN TO FL THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING
RISK FOR ORGANIZED ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTH/TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
THE LATEST MODELS WILL NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

..DARROW.. 10/31/2010

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KGJT [310807]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 310807
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
207 AM MDT SUN OCT 31 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0948 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 E RIFLE 39.55N 107.72W
10/30/2010 M55 MPH GARFIELD CO ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1000706

$$

DC

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 310705
SWODY3
SPC AC 310704

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 AM CDT SUN OCT 31 2010

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NWRN GULF COAST...

MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD REGARDING THE
MOVEMENT/POSITION OF UPPER LOW ALONG THE TX COAST. THE NAM IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE TAKING THIS FEATURE TO THE TX/MEXICAN BORDER NEAR
BRO...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE LOW SETTLING TO NEAR HOU ALONG THE UPPER
TX COAST AT 03/12Z. IN BOTH SOLUTIONS IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL BE
ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...SWWD INTO DEEP SOUTH TX. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING
AND WEAKER INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD DO NOT FAVOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PROPENSITY FOR STRONGER
UPDRAFTS TO MOVE/DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OVER MORE BUOYANT AIRMASS.

..DARROW.. 10/31/2010

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 310510
SWODY2
SPC AC 310509

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 AM CDT SUN OCT 31 2010

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTH & EAST TX/WRN LA...

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN THEIR EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING SSEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO DEEP SOUTH TX BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ENHANCE THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG A SURGING COLD FRONT BY LATE
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DRT TO TXK.
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY
SIGNIFICANT...850MB FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 10 KT...SUFFICIENT ASCENT
ATOP FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD FORCE PARCELS TO THEIR LFC AND SCT-NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE DURING THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ATOP MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER. WILL MAINTAIN A 5%
PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE...PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL...AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR
IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG AND MANY UPDRAFTS COULD
ACTUALLY EVOLVE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND SURGING WIND SHIFT.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR AND THIS WILL CERTAINLY AID THE POSSIBILITY FOR NUMEROUS
ROBUST UPDRAFTS. THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE HAIL MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER OUTLOOKS AND A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE WARRANTED.

..DARROW.. 10/31/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 310436
SWODY1
SPC AC 310434

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 PM CDT SAT OCT 30 2010

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT TROUGHING WITHIN A SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
PREVAILING SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BEGIN TO DIG TO THE LEE OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD THROUGH
THE PACIFIC COAST STATES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HOWEVER...THIS IS
PROGGED TO SUPPORT ONLY WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE MOISTURE RETURN
OFF THE MODIFYING GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF THE UPPER TEXAS/LOUISIANA
COAST...WHERE LARGE-SCALE FORCING LIKELY WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH
12Z MONDAY. GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NEGLIGIBLE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

..KERR.. 10/31/2010

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