DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 270049
SWODY1
SPC AC 270046

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 PM CDT FRI OCT 26 2007

VALID 270100Z - 271200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..ERN NC THROUGH THE DELMARVA REGION...

PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE IS SPREADING NWD THROUGH THE ERN CAROLINAS
AND MID ATLANTIC AHEAD OF UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY.

A VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S PERSISTS
OVER ERN NC AND SERN VA SOUTH OF A SW-NE ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE 00Z RAOB DATA SHOW MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES WITH WEAK LOW-MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND THIS IS RESULTING IN VERY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN THIS REGION TONIGHT. THE LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE DELMARVA AREA AND NERN
STATES AS UPPER TROUGH EJECTS NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. SOME NWD
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND ADVECTION OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...STRONGER LOW LEVEL
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN COOL SECTOR. EVEN IN WARM
SECTOR THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN VERY
MARGINAL...SUGGESTING ANY SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIMITED.

..OH VALLEY AND LOWER MI...

A LINE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED FROM NERN IND INTO SWRN OH WITHIN A
NW-SE ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH VORT MAX LIFTING NWD ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW. A NARROW
AXIS OF HEATING OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY BENEATH COLDER AIR ALOFT IN
PROXIMITY TO UPPER LOW...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT (6.5 C/KM) LAPSE
RATES AND INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES. THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR ANY THREAT FOR HAIL...AND
LIGHTNING FREQUENCY MAY DECREASE AS ACTIVITY LIFTS NWD INTO LOWER MI
TONIGHT.

.DIAL.. 10/27/2007

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KTFX [262139]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KTFX 262139
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
339 PM MDT FRI OCT 26 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0324 PM HEAVY SNOW HALF MOON PASS 46.77N 109.34W
10/26/2007 M3.0 INCH FERGUS MT TRAINED SPOTTER

3 INCHES IN 12 HRS - 6PM 10-25 TO 6AM 10-26

0324 PM HEAVY SNOW 5 NNW DUCK CREEK PASS 46.56N 111.29W
10/26/2007 M6.0 INCH MEAGHER MT MESONET

6 INCHES NEW SNOW AT THE BOULDER MOUNTAIN SNOTEL SITE.
ELEVATION - 7950 FEET.

&&

$$

DE

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KTFX [262137]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 262137
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
337 PM MDT FRI OCT 26 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0324 PM HEAVY SNOW HALF MOON PASS 46.77N 109.34W
10/26/2007 M3.0 INCH FERGUS MT TRAINED SPOTTER

3 INCHES IN 12 HRS - 6PM 10-25 TO 6AM 10-26

0324 PM HEAVY SNOW 5 NNW DUCK CREEK PASS 46.56N 111.29W
10/26/2007 M6.0 INCH MEAGHER MT MESONET

6 INCHES NEW SNOW AT THE BOULDER MOUNTAIN SNOTEL SITE.

&&

$$

DE

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KMFR [262025]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 262025
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
125 PM PDT FRI OCT 26 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0121 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG CRATER LAKE 42.90N 122.13W
10/26/2007 KLAMATH OR PARK/FOREST SRVC

ESTIMATED EAST WINDS WITH 50 MPH GUSTS OCCURRED THIS
MORNING WITH ABOUT 2 DOZEN MATURE HEMLOCKS DOWN. SOME
WERE UPROOTED AND SOME BROKEN. THIS OCCURRED NEAR THE
CASTLE CREEK DRAINAGE AT HWY 62. THE TREES RANGED FROM 18
INCHES IN DIAMETER TO 3 TO 4 FEET IN DIAMETER. TWO LARGE
ROTTED TREES FELL NEAR THE WEATHER STATION AT CRATER
LAKE.

&&

$$

GLASER

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2138

ACUS11 KWNS 261947
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261947
VAZ000-NCZ000-262215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2138
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 PM CDT FRI OCT 26 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN VA/TIDEWATER...COASTAL NC...OUTER
BANKS AND INVOF ADJACENT SOUNDS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 261947Z - 262215Z

SMALL TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EXIST OVER DISCUSSION AREA...ESPECIALLY
NEAR FRONTAL ZONE DESCRIBED BELOW. THREAT APPEARS TOO TRANSIENT AND
MRGL FOR WW.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW INVOF SC/NC LINE BETWEEN FLO-SOP...WITH
WARM FRONT NNEWD GENERALLY ALONG I-95 TO JUST S RIC...THEN EWD/ESEWD
OVER ORF AREA AND OFFSHORE. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NWD AROUND 10
KT ACROSS SERN VA AND BECOME QUASISTATIONARY OVER MOST OF ITS NC
EXTENT...ITS MOVEMENT SLOWED PARTLY BY BAROCLINIC EFFECTS OF
ABUNDANT CLOUDS/PRECIP TO ITS N AND NW. WARM SECTOR IS SHUNTED
SOMEWHAT FARTHER E TOWARD SOUNDS BY E EDGE OF PRECIP PLUME.
PRESENCE OF WARM SECTOR OVER ERN NC AND OVER MORE OF SERN VA WITH
TIME WILL YIELD MRGLLY FAVORABLE BUOYANCY...MLCAPES UP TO 500 J/KG.
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
BY LACK OF ROBUST DIABATIC HEATING. STILL...BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE E
OF PRECIP PLUME AND S OF VA FRONTAL SEGMENT DOES SUPPORT SFC-BASED
EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS. THIS REGIME COINCIDES WITH ENVIRONMENT OF
SOMEWHAT ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...WITH EFFECTIVE SRH AROUND
100-200 J/KG LIKELY TO CONTINUE. WITH ROUGHLY 35 KT FLOW AROUND 6
KM AGL OR 500 MB...OBSERVED IN VWP AND NOWCAST IN RUC
GUIDANCE...STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE ALONG FRONT WHERE
SFC WINDS ARE WEAK BUT BACKED. RELATIVELY DISCRETE/HIGH
REFLECTIVITY TSTMS IN WARM SECTOR...OR CROSSING MORE ZONALLY ALIGNED
FRONTAL SEGMENT IN VA...MAY ROTATE FOR A SHORT PERIOD...AND
BRIEF/SMALL TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.EDWARDS.. 10/26/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM...

34357761 35247695 36547683 37217713 37857708 37917614
37787550 37147582 37127596 36927599 36297579 35707545
35197551 35227563 35147583 34927618 34577649 34637655
34687671 34657697 34557726

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 261937
SWODY1
SPC AC 261935

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 PM CDT FRI OCT 26 2007

VALID 262000Z - 271200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST WITHIN
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
INTO PA. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATES MARITIME TROPICAL
BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS HAS SPREAD ACROSS ERN NC INTO SERN VA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH RETREATING WARM FRONT AND SELY LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES. GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
PRECIPITATION...BUOYANCY IS EXTREMELY LIMITED ACROSS THIS REGION AND
70S SFC DEW POINTS WILL BE INSTRUMENTAL IF ROBUST UPDRAFTS ARE TO
DEVELOP. RADAR/LIGHTNING TRENDS SUGGEST DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINS
OFFSHORE WELL SOUTH OF THE NC COAST AND MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD HOLD OVER THE WARMER WATERS. ALTHOUGH...A FEW DISCRETE
ECHOES ARE NOW EMBEDDED ALONG ERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER
ERN NC. THESE UPDRAFTS ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO ORGANIZE AND POSSIBLY
EXHIBIT ROTATION. TORNADO THREAT REMAINS VERY LOW AND ISOLATED AT
BEST.

..OH VALLEY/LOWER MI...

NARROW CLOUD-FREE ZONE ARCS ACROSS NERN IND INTO SWRN LOWER MI
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF UPPER LOW THAT IS BEGINNING TO OPEN AND EJECT
EWD. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING ACROSS THIS REGION AS
SHALLOW CONVECTION EVOLVES UPSTREAM WITHIN MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS
ACROSS ECNTRL IL INTO WCNTRL IND. INSTABILITY IS WEAK ACROSS THIS
REGION BUT MAY PROVE ADEQUATE FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH
DEEPER CLOUD ELEMENTS.

.DARROW.. 10/26/2007

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KMFR [261740]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 261740
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1039 AM PDT FRI OCT 26 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1037 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG PROSPECT 42.75N 122.49W
10/26/2007 JACKSON OR PARK/FOREST SRVC

SEVERAL CAMPGROUNDS NEAR PROSPECT REPORT EAST WINDS AT 30
MPH GUSTING TO 40 MPH WITH 14 INCH DIAMETER TREES DOWN.

&&

$$

GLASER

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 261715
SWODY2
SPC AC 261713

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 PM CDT FRI OCT 26 2007

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..EAST COAST...

UPPER LOW OVER MO WILL EJECT EWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY
DAY1...THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE DAY2 AS NEXT IN A SERIES OF SPEED
MAXIMA DROP SEWD ACROSS MN INTO WI. AS THIS FEATURE OPENS UP...IT
SHOULD FORCE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC...TRAILING INTO THE FL PENINSULA EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
LARGE SCALE FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS
VA...NWD INTO THE NERN U.S. IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGER HEIGHT
FALLS. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE SCALE FORCING THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE
THE POOR LAPSE RATE/INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS WILL STRUGGLE FOR
ANY MEANINGFUL BUOYANCY PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ROOTED WELL ABOVE 850MB ACROSS SRN NY...WITH
LOWER CLOUD BASES INTO SRN VA WHERE SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD HAVE RISEN
INTO THE UPPER 60S. EVEN SO...MEAGER SFC-BASED CAPE ON THE ORDER OF
A FEW HUNDRED J/KG WILL LIMIT OVERALL UPDRAFT STRENGTH. GUSTY WINDS
AND PERHAPS A MARGINAL SEVERE GUST IS ABOUT ALL THAT CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO SRN NY THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.

.DARROW.. 10/26/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 261626
SWODY1
SPC AC 261623

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CDT FRI OCT 26 2007

VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

LARGE CUT-OFF LOW OVER MID MS VALLEY WHICH HAS BEEN DRIFTING N WILL
GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE E AND PICK UP SPEED THIS FORECAST PERIOD
IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF UPSTREAM TROUGH.

SLY FLOW OF VERY MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD THRU ATLANTIC
STATES. AN EXPANDING AREA OF CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
MID MS VALLEY UPPER SYSTEM. GIVEN THE LACK OF SURFACE HEATING AND
WEAK LAPSE RATES SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.

..NC/VA...
ONE AREA OF SOME POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER EASTERN NC INTO SOUTHEAST VA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS LATER TODAY AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO BECOME
PROGRESSIVE. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM CENTRAL NC
INTO EASTERN VA BY 06Z. THERE IS A NARROW AXIS ALONG THIS LOW TRACK

WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A RISK OF AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. OTHERWISE...WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT UPDRAFT

STRENGTH AND OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

.HALES/GUYER.. 10/26/2007

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KCHS [261322]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 261322
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
922 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0905 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.94W
10/26/2007 CHARLESTON SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

CHARLESTON POLICE REPORTED HIGH WATER ON MARKET
STREET...CONCORD STREET...CALHOUN STREET...LINE
STREET...PRESIDENT STREET AND RUTLEDGE AVENUE.

&&

$$

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KLOX [261314]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KLOX 261314
LSRLOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
614 AM PDT FRI OCT 26 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0540 AM DENSE FOG 4 ENE SANTA MONICA 34.03N 118.43W
10/26/2007 LOS ANGELES CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

VISIBILITY 300 FEET OR LESS IN DENSE FOG.

0550 AM DENSE FOG 3 N MANHATTAN BEACH 33.94N 118.40W
10/26/2007 LOS ANGELES CA ASOS

VISIBILITIES 350 FEET OR LESS AT LOS ANGELES
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

0600 AM DENSE FOG 2 ESE LONG BEACH 33.78N 118.13W
10/26/2007 LOS ANGELES CA TRAINED SPOTTER

VISIBILITY IN DENSE FOG 50 FEET AT MOST.

&&

$$

HALL

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 261245
SWODY1
SPC AC 261242

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT FRI OCT 26 2007

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

LARGE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE MID MS VALLEY THIS MORNING.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE
TODAY...BEFORE BEGINNING TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD BY LATE TONIGHT.
LONG FETCH OF SOUTHERLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN VERY MOIST
AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FROM PARTS OF FL INTO NY/PA.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THIS REGION
ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS TODAY.

..NC/VA...
ONE AREA OF SOME POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER EASTERN NC INTO SOUTHEAST VA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS LATER TODAY AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO BECOME
PROGRESSIVE. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM CENTRAL NC
INTO EASTERN VA BY 06Z. THERE IS A NARROW AXIS ALONG THIS LOW TRACK
WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A RISK OF AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. OTHERWISE...WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT UPDRAFT
STRENGTH AND OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

.HART/BOTHWELL.. 10/26/2007

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 260821
SWOD48
SPC AC 260820

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 AM CDT FRI OCT 26 2007

VALID 291200Z - 031200Z

..SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW THROUGH NEXT WEEK...
THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT RATHER LARGE
VARIABILITY IN THE UPPER FLOW EVOLUTION BEYOND THIS
WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR
SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN/SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
CHANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY NOT BE NON-EXISTENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD...DEPENDING UPON THE CHARACTER OF THE TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. BUT...THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THE PRESENT TIME.

.KERR.. 10/26/2007

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KKEY [260814]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 260814
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
414 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0301 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 8 SSE KEY LARGO 25.01N 80.38W
10/26/2007 M39 MPH GMZ052 FL C-MAN STATION

A WIND GUST TO 34 KNOTS WAS MEASURED AT MOLASSES REEF
LIGHT C-MAN STATION.

&&

$$

JR

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 260600
SWODY3
SPC AC 260558

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT FRI OCT 26 2007

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO/THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES... BROAD
UPPER TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE
NATION SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN STRONG ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY/STABLE THERMODYNAMIC STRATIFICATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION.
AND...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

.KERR.. 10/26/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 260535
SWODY1
SPC AC 260533

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CDT FRI OCT 26 2007

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..CAROLINAS THROUGH MID ATLANTIC...OH VALLEY AND LOWER MI...

UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE RETROGRADING IN A
GENERAL NWWD DIRECTION FRIDAY...BEFORE EJECTING NEWD THROUGH THE OH
AND TN VALLEY TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT WILL ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY.
ATTENDANT OCCLUDED LOW WILL LIFT NWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS THIS
OCCURS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER ERN NC MAY LIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...WITH AN OCCLUDED BOUNDARY EXTENDING NWWD TO
THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. DESPITE PRESENCE OF RICH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...INSTABILITY IN WARM SECTOR FROM ERN NC THROUGH THE
COASTAL MID ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL WITH WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN THIS REGION WITHIN PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE AND
WEAK CAP. STRONGER DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST
OF WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND VORTICITY
MAY EXIST IN VICINITY OF THE RETREATING FRONT TO SUPPORT A MARGINAL
THREAT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. OTHERWISE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH IN
COOL SECTOR AS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NWD ABOVE THE STABLE LAYER. WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST LIGHTNING COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN LIMITED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

.DIAL.. 10/26/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 260524
SWODY2
SPC AC 260522

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 AM CDT FRI OCT 26 2007

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
THE CLOSED LOW...WHICH BECAME CUT-OFF EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING NORTH NORTHWESTWARD INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AND...A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION
IS FORECAST BY MODELS LATER TODAY INTO SATURDAY...AS A SIGNIFICANT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS FROM THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITHIN THE MAIN BELT OF THE POLAR
WESTERLIES. THE CLOSED LOW IS ULTIMATELY PROGGED TO EVOLVE INTO AN
OPEN SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEFORE MERGING INTO THE STRONGER WESTERLIES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES...AS THE UPSTREAM IMPULSE
TURNS EAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS FROM LAKE HURON/GEORGIAN BAY
THROUGH EASTERN QUEBEC. AND...A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO
ADVANCE THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN STATES AND THE NORTHERN/MID
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...AND IN THE WAKE OF A
RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE...STRONG DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN...WITHIN
A NARROW TONGUE ACROSS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA INTO THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY BY EARLY SATURDAY.

..PARTS OF MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO SRN/WRN NEW ENGLAND...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITHIN AFOREMENTIONED NARROW PRE-FRONTAL MOIST
TONGUE ARE CHARACTERIZED BY POSITIVE BOUNDARY LAYER BUOYANCY /ALBEIT
VERY WEAK/ AND SIZABLE CLOCKWISE-CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BENEATH
A 40-50+ KT LOW-LEVEL JET BY MID DAY SATURDAY. JUST TO THE EAST OF
A 70-90 KT 500 MB JET CORE PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...THESE PARAMETERS WILL
PROVIDE A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS...PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO STRONG FORCING
ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF FRONT. HOWEVER...WITH COLD AIR ALOFT LAGGING TO
THE WEST OF THE SURFACE FRONT...WARM MID-LEVELS AND NEARLY SATURATED
PROFILES THROUGH MID/UPPER LEVELS COULD BE INHIBITIVE TO VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT ANY
APPRECIABLE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF REGION...FOLLOWED BY
VEERING WIND FIELDS/DRYING THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.

.KERR.. 10/26/2007

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