MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0639

ACUS11 KWNS 140336
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140335
MTZ000-140430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0639
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 159...

VALID 140335Z - 140430Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 159
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH...ALLOWING WW 159 TO EXPIRE AT 04Z.

DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR ASCENT/HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD FROM
CENTRAL MT INTO THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION
IN CONVECTION WITH EWD EXTENT. IN ADDITION...AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL WAA AND THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST
TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEING MAINLY
ELEVATED GIVEN THE INCREASE IN SURFACE BASED INHIBITION. THUS...THE
DECREASE IN INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT AND PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A NEW WATCH ISSUANCE.

..PETERS.. 05/14/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON 46391222 46941288 48231327 48601213 48361119 48470677
47080730 46391222

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KMSO [140226]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KMSO 140226
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
803 PM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 PM TSTM WND DMG CRESTON 48.19N 114.14W
05/13/2013 FLATHEAD MT PUBLIC

VERY LARGE UPROOTED TREES.


0600 PM TSTM WND GST POTOMAC 46.88N 113.58W
05/13/2013 U0 MPH MISSOULA MT PUBLIC

POWER IS CURRENTLY OUT.


0530 PM TSTM WND GST WOODLAND 46.31N 116.07W
05/13/2013 M43 MPH IDAHO ID TRAINED SPOTTER



0526 PM TSTM WND GST BONNER 46.87N 113.86W
05/13/2013 M32 MPH MISSOULA MT TRAINED SPOTTER

POWER OUTAGE IN BONNER.


0526 PM TSTM WND GST 3 SW MISSOULA 46.84N 114.05W
05/13/2013 E50 MPH MISSOULA MT NWS EMPLOYEE

LARGE TREE BRANCHES DOWN AT MISSOULA COUNTRY
CLUB GOLF COURSE.


0522 PM HAIL FLORENCE 46.63N 114.08W
05/13/2013 M0.88 INCH RAVALLI MT OTHER FEDERAL



0510 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 S MISSOULA 46.86N 113.99W
05/13/2013 MISSOULA MT NEWSPAPER

LARGE TREES DOWN IN THE UNIVERSITY DISTRICT
AND ALONG DALY AVENUE.


0510 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 WNW MISSOULA 46.89N 114.06W
05/13/2013 MISSOULA MT NEWSPAPER

POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS MULLAN ROAD.



0509 PM TSTM WND GST 1 NE RACETRACK 46.29N 112.73W
05/13/2013 M48 MPH POWELL MT TRAINED SPOTTER



0505 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 NW LOLO 46.79N 114.14W
05/13/2013 M0.25 INCH MISSOULA MT NWS EMPLOYEE

HEAVY RAIN DURATION 6 MINUTES


0503 PM TSTM WND GST 4 N LOLO 46.82N 114.07W
05/13/2013 E50 MPH MISSOULA MT NWS EMPLOYEE



0500 PM HAIL 4 SSW LOLO 46.70N 114.10W
05/13/2013 M1.00 INCH MISSOULA MT NWS EMPLOYEE

TREE BRANCHES 2INCHES IN DIAMETER BROKEN OFF
TREES, BRANCHES STRIPPED OF LEAVES.



&&

$$

ALLEGRETTO

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KMSO [140154]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 140154
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
753 PM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0510 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 S MISSOULA 46.86N 113.99W
05/13/2013 MISSOULA MT NEWSPAPER

LARGE TREES DOWN IN THE UNIVERSITY DISTRICT
AND ALONG DALY AVENUE.

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KPBZ [140140]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KPBZ 140140
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
940 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 S LATROBE 40.28N 79.38W
05/10/2013 WESTMORELAND PA 911 CALL CENTER

TREES AND WIRES DOWN UNITY TOWNSHIP. TIME MODIFIED
BASED ON RADAR.


&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME...REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1301899

$$

KRAMAR

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KPBZ [140138]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KPBZ 140138
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
938 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0524 PM TSTM WND DMG KNOX 41.23N 79.54W
05/10/2013 CLARION PA 911 CALL CENTER

TREES AND WIRES DOWN. TIME MODIFIED BASED ON RADAR.


&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME...REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1301896

$$

KRAMAR

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KPBZ [140138]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KPBZ 140138
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
938 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0444 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 WNW NORTH BUTLER 40.88N 79.90W
05/10/2013 BUTLER PA PUBLIC

TREE DOWN ON CAR AT INTERSECTION OF ROUTES 8 AND 422.
TIME AND LOCATION ADJUSTED TO REFLECT TRUE LOCATION OF
DAMAGE.


&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME...LOCATION...REMARKS...SOURCE

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1301888

$$

KRAMAR

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KPBZ [140136]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KPBZ 140136
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
936 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0435 PM TSTM WND DMG FREEPORT 40.68N 79.68W
05/10/2013 ARMSTRONG PA 911 CALL CENTER

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN. TIME MODIFIED BASED ON
RADAR


&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME...REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1301892

$$

KRAMAR

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KPBZ [140136]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KPBZ 140136
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
936 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM TSTM WND DMG CALLERY 40.74N 80.04W
05/10/2013 BUTLER PA PUBLIC

TREE DOWN ONTO POWER LINE. TIME MODIFIED BASED ON
RADAR.


&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME...REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1301891

$$

KRAMAR

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KPBZ [140132]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KPBZ 140132
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
932 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0415 PM TSTM WND DMG BEN AVON 40.51N 80.08W
05/10/2013 ALLEGHENY PA PUBLIC

TREE DOWN. TIME MODIFIED BASED ON RADAR


&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME...REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1301890

$$

KRAMAR

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KPBZ [140131]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KPBZ 140131
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
931 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM TSTM WND DMG CARNEGIE 40.41N 80.09W
05/10/2013 ALLEGHENY PA 911 CALL CENTER

TREES AND WIRES DOWN CARNEGIE... GREEN TREE... SCOTT
TOWNSHIP. TIME MODIFIED BASED ON RADAR


&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME...REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1301887

$$

KRAMAR

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KPBZ [140131]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KPBZ 140131
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
931 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0405 PM HAIL 1 W WEST MAYFIELD 40.77N 80.36W
05/10/2013 E1.50 INCH BEAVER PA TRAINED SPOTTER

LOCATION REFINED FROM FOLLOWUP


&&

CORRECTED LOCATION...REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1301884

$$

KRAMAR

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KPBZ [140128]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KPBZ 140128
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
928 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM TSTM WND DMG WAYNESBURG 39.90N 80.19W
05/10/2013 GREENE PA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

ROOF DAMAGED ON MORRIS STREET. TIME MODIFIED BASED ON
RADAR


&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME...REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1301886

$$

KRAMAR

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KTFX [140126]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 140126
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
726 PM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0720 PM HAIL 2 NW SUN PRAIRIE 47.55N 111.51W
05/13/2013 E0.25 INCH CASCADE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

SOFT PEA SIZE HAIL. PEAK WIND ESTIMATED 40MPH...THEN
NEARLY CALM.


&&

$$

PN

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KTFX [140118]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 140118
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
717 PM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0715 PM HAIL 13 SSW BIG SANDY 48.02N 110.23W
05/13/2013 E0.25 INCH CHOUTEAU MT TRAINED SPOTTER

BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...ESTIMATED 40 MPH WIND GUST... BRIEF
PEA SIZE HAIL. OBSERVER LOCATED JUST NORTH OF STORM
CENTER

0715 PM TSTM WND GST 13 SSW BIG SANDY 48.02N 110.23W
05/13/2013 E40 MPH CHOUTEAU MT TRAINED SPOTTER

BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...ESTIMATED 40 MPH WIND GUST... BRIEF
PEA SIZE HAIL. OBSERVER LOCATED JUST NORTH OF STORM
CENTER


&&

$$

PN

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KSEW [140116]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 140116
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
616 PM PDT MON MAY 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0450 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 W BRYANT 48.24N 122.24W
05/13/2013 SNOHOMISH WA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

LARGE TREE ACROSS ALL LANES OF NORTHBOUND INTERSTATE 5
NEAR STATE ROUTE 532.

0505 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 SSE EDMONDS 47.74N 122.33W
05/13/2013 KING WA BROADCAST MEDIA

LARGE TREE DOWN ON SOUTHBOUND INTERSTATE 5 NEAR 145TH
STREET.

0540 PM TSTM WND DMG SILVERDALE 47.64N 122.69W
05/13/2013 KITSAP WA BROADCAST MEDIA

*** 1 INJ *** TREE FELL ON HOUSE INJURING WOMAN IN BED.
TIME OF OCCURANCE IS ESTIMATED.


&&

$$

JJSMITH

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KTFX [140112]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 140112
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
712 PM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0711 PM TSTM WND GST SIMMS 47.49N 111.93W
05/13/2013 E35 MPH CASCADE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED 35 MPH WIND GUST WITH LIGHT RAIN


&&

$$

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KTFX [140109]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 140109
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
709 PM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0705 PM TSTM WND GST CONRAD 48.17N 111.95W
05/13/2013 M56 MPH PONDERA MT AWOS

CONRAD AWOS MEASURES 56MPH GUST AT 635 PM MDT.


&&

$$

PN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 140051
SWODY1
SPC AC 140049

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

VALID 140100Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN ID AND
MT...

...NRN ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NEAR THE WEST COAST OF WA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
NRN ID AND WRN MT JUST AHEAD OF A BAND OF FOCUSED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS CONVECTION IS
LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF A WIND SHIFT WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
ESTIMATES MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 250 TO 750 J/KG. THE STORMS ARE
ALSO LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF A 80 TO 95 KT MID-LEVEL JET WHICH
IS CREATING STRONG DEEP LAYER FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING SEVERE THREAT COVERAGE IN THE NRN
ROCKIES MAINLY DUE TO THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...SEE MCD 638.
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH 50 KT OF FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC
COULD HELP THE FASTER MOVING LINE-SEGMENTS TO CONTAIN A WIND DAMAGE
THREAT. COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALSO ENCOURAGE
HAIL PRODUCTION.

FURTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS ERN MT...WEAK INSTABILITY IS ALSO PRESENT
BUT SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 90 F. THIS IS RESULTING IN VERY
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS APPROACHING
50 DEGREES F IN SOME AREAS. THIS SHOULD HELP ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT
SPEEDS RESULTING IN SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE MORE INTENSE
CELLS. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY EVENTUALLY REACH WRN ND AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE THREAT THAT CAN PERSIST INTO THE LATE
EVENING SHOULD BECOME MARGINAL.

..BROYLES.. 05/14/2013

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KTFX [140050]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 140050
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
649 PM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0648 PM HAIL FORT BENTON 47.83N 110.66W
05/13/2013 E0.25 INCH CHOUTEAU MT TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA SIZE HAIL ON SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THUNDERSTORM. LIGHT
WIND. LIGHT RAIN.


&&

$$

PN

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KMSO [140021]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KMSO 140021
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
619 PM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM TSTM WND GST POTOMAC 46.88N 113.58W
05/13/2013 U0 MPH MISSOULA MT PUBLIC

POWER IS CURRENTLY OUT.


0530 PM TSTM WND GST WOODLAND 46.31N 116.07W
05/13/2013 M43 MPH IDAHO ID TRAINED SPOTTER



0526 PM TSTM WND GST BONNER 46.87N 113.86W
05/13/2013 M32 MPH MISSOULA MT TRAINED SPOTTER

POWER OUTAGE IN BONNER.


0526 PM TSTM WND GST 3 SW MISSOULA 46.84N 114.05W
05/13/2013 E50 MPH MISSOULA MT NWS EMPLOYEE

LARGE TREE BRANCHES DOWN AT MISSOULA COUNTRY
CLUB GOLF COURSE.


0522 PM HAIL FLORENCE 46.63N 114.08W
05/13/2013 M0.88 INCH RAVALLI MT OTHER FEDERAL



0509 PM TSTM WND GST 1 NE RACETRACK 46.29N 112.73W
05/13/2013 M48 MPH POWELL MT TRAINED SPOTTER



0505 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 NW LOLO 46.79N 114.14W
05/13/2013 M0.25 INCH MISSOULA MT NWS EMPLOYEE

HEAVY RAIN DURATION 6 MINUTES


0503 PM TSTM WND GST 4 N LOLO 46.82N 114.07W
05/13/2013 E50 MPH MISSOULA MT NWS EMPLOYEE



0500 PM HAIL 4 SSW LOLO 46.70N 114.10W
05/13/2013 M1.00 INCH MISSOULA MT NWS EMPLOYEE

TREE BRANCHES 2INCHES IN DIAMETER BROKEN OFF
TREES, BRANCHES STRIPPED OF LEAVES.



&&

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0638

ACUS11 KWNS 140019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140018
MTZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-140145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0638
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0718 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/WRN MT...CENTRAL ID...FAR NERN ORE...AND FAR
SERN WA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 159...

VALID 140018Z - 140145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 159
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS WW 159 INTO THE
EVENING WILL BE IN CENTRAL ID TO WRN MT. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL
HIGH BASED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED E OF WW 159...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND A HAIL THREAT. THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
THIS LATTER AREA IS UNCERTAIN...AND PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A NEW
WATCH AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...A STRONG NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS WA/ORE...WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN
DOWNSTREAM WSWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS WW 159 INTO
CENTRAL/ERN MT THIS EVENING. THIS WILL MAINTAIN STRONG BULK
SHEAR...SUPPORTING STORM ORGANIZATION. DESPITE RELATIVELY MODEST
INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 500-1000 J PER KG/ TENDING TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE
OF STRONGER CELLS THUS FAR...HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS
CENTRAL ID/WRN MT ARE EXPECTED TO COMPENSATE...RESULTING IN
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

TO THE EAST OF WW 159...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A FEW STORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WITHIN A
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE LOW LEVEL AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE QUITE STEEP. ONE PARTICULAR STORM IN FERGUS COUNTY MT /45
NE KLWT/ HAS BECOME ROBUST WITH SUSTAINED REFLECTIVITY AT 7 KM AND 9
KM PER WDSS-II CAPPI. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8
C/KM...LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS PER 00Z GTF/GGW SOUNDINGS AND
STRENGTHENING BULK SHEAR SUGGEST DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE A
THREAT WITH THIS STORM AND OTHERS THAT DEVELOP. GIVEN DEWPOINTS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S LIMITING STRONGER INSTABILITY...THE COVERAGE
OF INTENSE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LOW AND WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE
NEED FOR A WATCH.

..PETERS.. 05/14/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...

LAT...LON 45251861 45901788 46331730 46591658 46941594 46961545
47211495 47371449 47671454 48041463 48781439 48581356
48211299 48481214 48351158 48241085 48341012 48420851
48420717 48300607 47500534 47020542 46610631 46570949
46541003 46641036 46941137 46431178 46191249 45761313
45131466 45101566 44471627 44611697 44291729 44301787
44271848 45251861

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KMSO [140018]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 140018
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
617 PM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM TSTM WND GST POTOMAC 46.88N 113.58W
05/13/2013 U0 MPH MISSOULA MT PUBLIC

POWER IS CURRENTLY OUT.

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KMSO [140013]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KMSO 140013
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
610 PM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM TSTM WND GST WOODLAND 46.31N 116.07W
05/13/2013 M43 MPH IDAHO ID TRAINED SPOTTER



0526 PM TSTM WND GST BONNER 46.87N 113.86W
05/13/2013 M32 MPH MISSOULA MT TRAINED SPOTTER

POWER OUTAGE IN BONNER.


0526 PM TSTM WND GST 3 SW MISSOULA 46.84N 114.05W
05/13/2013 E50 MPH MISSOULA MT NWS EMPLOYEE

LARGE TREE BRANCHES DOWN AT MISSOULA COUNTRY
CLUB GOLF COURSE.


0522 PM HAIL FLORENCE 46.63N 114.08W
05/13/2013 M0.88 INCH RAVALLI MT OTHER FEDERAL



0509 PM TSTM WND GST 1 NE RACETRACK 46.29N 112.73W
05/13/2013 M48 MPH POWELL MT TRAINED SPOTTER



0505 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 NW LOLO 46.79N 114.14W
05/13/2013 M0.25 INCH MISSOULA MT PUBLIC

HEAVY RAIN DURATION 6 MINUTES


0503 PM TSTM WND GST 4 N LOLO 46.82N 114.07W
05/13/2013 E50 MPH MISSOULA MT NWS EMPLOYEE



0500 PM HAIL 4 SSW LOLO 46.70N 114.10W
05/13/2013 M1.00 INCH MISSOULA MT NWS EMPLOYEE

TREE BRANCHES 2INCHES IN DIAMETER BROKEN OFF
TREES, BRANCHES STRIPPED OF LEAVES.



&&

$$

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KTFX [140013]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 140013
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
612 PM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0605 PM TSTM WND GST 8 NE ROY 47.41N 108.84W
05/13/2013 E40 MPH FERGUS MT TRAINED SPOTTER

EST 40 MPH WIND GUSTS WITH 3 MIN OF HEAVY RAIN. FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES. VERIFIED NO WIND OR HAIL DAMAMGE.


&&

$$

PN

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KMSO [132349]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KMSO 132349
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
545 PM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM TSTM WND GST WOODLAND 46.31N 116.07W
05/13/2013 M43 MPH IDAHO ID TRAINED SPOTTER



0526 PM TSTM WND GST BONNER 46.87N 113.86W
05/13/2013 M32 MPH MISSOULA MT TRAINED SPOTTER

POWER OUTAGE IN BONNER.


0526 PM TSTM WND GST 3 SW MISSOULA 46.84N 114.05W
05/13/2013 E50 MPH MISSOULA MT NWS EMPLOYEE

LARGE TREE BRANCHES DOWN AT MISSOULA COUNTRY
CLUB GOLF COURSE.


0522 PM HAIL FLORENCE 46.63N 114.08W
05/13/2013 M0.88 INCH RAVALLI MT OTHER FEDERAL




0509 PM TSTM WND GST 1 NE RACETRACK 46.29N 112.73W
05/13/2013 M48 MPH POWELL MT TRAINED SPOTTER



0505 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 NW LOLO 46.79N 114.14W
05/13/2013 M0.25 INCH MISSOULA MT NWS EMPLOYEE

HEAVY RAIN DURATION 6 MINUTES


0503 PM TSTM WND GST 4 N LOLO 46.82N 114.07W
05/13/2013 E50 MPH MISSOULA MT NWS EMPLOYEE




&&

$$

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KMSO [132341]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 132341
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
540 PM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM TSTM WND GST WOODLAND 46.31N 116.07W
05/13/2013 M43 MPH IDAHO ID TRAINED SPOTTER



&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KMSO [132338]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 132338
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
538 PM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0522 PM HAIL FLORENCE 46.63N 114.08W
05/13/2013 M0.88 INCH RAVALLI MT OTHER FEDERAL



&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KMSO [132334]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 132334
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
533 PM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0526 PM TSTM WND GST 3 SW MISSOULA 46.84N 114.05W
05/13/2013 E50 MPH MISSOULA MT NWS EMPLOYEE

LARGE TREE BRANCHES DOWN AT MISSOULA COUNTRY
CLUB GOLF COURSE.

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KMSO [132330]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 132330
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
530 PM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0526 PM TSTM WND GST BONNER 46.87N 113.86W
05/13/2013 M32 MPH MISSOULA MT TRAINED SPOTTER

POWER OUTAGE IN BONNER.

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KMSO [132329]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 132329
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
528 PM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0509 PM TSTM WND GST 1 NE RACETRACK 46.29N 112.73W
05/13/2013 M48 MPH POWELL MT TRAINED SPOTTER



&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KMSO [132321]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 132321
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
521 PM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0509 PM TSTM WND GST 5 SSW TURAH 46.77N 113.86W
05/13/2013 M48 MPH MISSOULA MT TRAINED SPOTTER



&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KMSO [132314]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 132314
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
514 PM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0505 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 NW LOLO 46.79N 114.14W
05/13/2013 M0.25 INCH MISSOULA MT PUBLIC

HEAVY RAIN DURATION 6 MINUTES

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KMSO [132313]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 132313
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
512 PM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0503 PM TSTM WND GST 4 N LOLO 46.82N 114.07W
05/13/2013 E50 MPH MISSOULA MT NWS EMPLOYEE



&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KEWX [132132]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 132132
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
432 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0720 AM HAIL 1 NE MICO 29.54N 98.92W
05/10/2013 E1.25 INCH MEDINA TX PUBLIC

HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1300461

$$

SBS

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KEWX [132119]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 132119
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
419 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0850 PM TSTM WND DMG 18 WNW KERR WILDLIFE MG 30.16N 99.78W
05/09/2013 EDWARDS TX PUBLIC

SEVERAL TREES DOWN...CARPORT DAMAGED


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1300460

$$

SBS

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KEWX [132117]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 132117
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
416 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 AM HAIL 12 W KERR WILDLIFE MGMT 30.07N 99.69W
05/10/2013 E1.75 INCH REAL TX PUBLIC

GOLFBALL HAIL NEAR GARVENS STORE


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1300459

$$

SBS

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 159

WWUS20 KWNS 132100
SEL9
SPC WW 132100
IDZ000-MTZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-140400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 159
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
300 PM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL IDAHO
WESTERN MONTANA
EXTREME NORTHEAST OREGON
EXTREME SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 300 PM UNTIL
1000 PM MDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF BAKER OREGON TO 55 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF GREAT
FALLS MONTANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NERN OREGON AND
ADJACENT PARTS OF CENTRAL ID IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING EWD INTO WA/OREGON. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITH SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE 40S AND A DEEP MIXED LAYER AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WITH
STRONGER HIGH-BASED STORMS. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
RAPIDLY ENEWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS OVER PARTS OF WRN MT.
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY ALSO FORM EWD OVER THE CENTRAL MT MOUNTAINS
WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
ADDITIONAL WATCH FARTHER EAST IN MT MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24040.


...WEISS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0637

ACUS11 KWNS 132035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132035
WAZ000-ORZ000-132230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0637
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN WA AND FAR NWRN ORE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 132035Z - 132230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SVR WIND GUST OR TWO
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT
PRECEDING AN APPROACHING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ADVANCING
INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NW. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG A N/S-ORIENTED LINE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS E OF PUGET SOUND. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCENT HAVING OVERSPREAD AREAS OF MARGINAL
INSTABILITY -- I.E. MLCAPE OF 200-400 J/KG -- DRIVEN BY POCKETS OF
PRECEDING INSOLATION AMIDST UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S SFC DEWPOINTS.
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER...WITH
AROUND 35 KT OF 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR...AND MODEST DIRECTIONAL LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR PER ATX VWP DATA MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER QUASI-LINEAR
CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS. STRONG WIND GUSTS...WITH PERHAPS A MARGINALLY
SVR WIND GUST OR TWO...MAY ACCOMPANY THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.
HOWEVER...THE LIMITED DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD BE DETRIMENTAL IN SUPPORTING MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE
UPDRAFTS. AS SUCH...ANY SVR THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL...BRIEF...AND
SPORADIC.

..COHEN/WEISS.. 05/13/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PDT...SEW...PQR...

LAT...LON 46672279 48502248 48932216 48872106 47342131 45822184
45422224 45372277 45742298 46672279

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0636

ACUS11 KWNS 132026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132025
FLZ000-132230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0636
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 132025Z - 132230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE WITH
ISOLATED CELLS.

DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS AND INCIPIENT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED
OVER WRN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...AND ARE SLOWLY DEEPENING WITH LIGHTNING
RECENTLY NOTED. THE SLOW GROWTH IS LIKELY INDICATIVE OF THE
RELATIVELY POOR LAPSE RATE PROFILES ALOFT...DRIER AIR AND WEAK
FORCING. OTHER CU WERE FORMING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WHICH WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY BUT INLAND FROM SERN BROWARD INTO ERN MIAMI-DADE
COUNTIES.

GIVEN SOME STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CONTINUED HEATING...THESE
STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS OR SMALL HAIL IF
THEY CAN DEEPEN FURTHER...INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF COLDER
DOWNDRAFTS. OTHERWISE...OUTFLOW FROM THESE CELLS SHOULD QUICKLY
STABILIZE THE AREA.

..JEWELL/WEISS.. 05/13/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

LAT...LON 25338023 25398052 25668066 26068066 26338042 26458013
26287998 25338023

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 132001
SWODY1
SPC AC 131959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

VALID 132000Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...

...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...ALONG WITH RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...INDICATE THAT CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER NERN
ORE INTO N-CNTRL ID WILL QUICKLY SPREAD EWD INTO WRN MT THIS
AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING DEEP-LAYER ASCENT
ACCOMPANYING A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THESE STORMS MAY POSE A
RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS. A SEPARATE AREA OF TSTMS
MAY EVOLVE OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS CNTRL MT...CONTINUING
EWD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN MT AND WRN
ND. A DMGG WIND RISK COULD ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION PAST SUNSET IF
EVOLUTION INTO A SUSTAINED LINE/BOWING SEGMENT CAN OCCUR. FOR MORE
DETAILS ON SVR POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS AREA...PLEASE REFER TO MCD 635.

...SERN FL PENINSULA...
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SHOW A THICKENING CU
FIELD ACROSS THE SRN FL PENINSULA. ISOLATED TSTMS APPEAR LIKELY TO
DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND MAY POSE A THREAT FOR DMGG WIND
GUSTS...GIVEN 30 KTS OF MIDLEVEL FLOW AND A HOT/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER.

..ROGERS/BUNTING.. 05/13/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013/

...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH OFF THE
PACIFIC NW COAST PROGRESSING EWD IN ADVANCE OF AN UPSTREAM SYSTEM
APPROACHING 145W. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LEAD SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO WA/OREGON BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
ENEWD TONIGHT TOWARD NRN MT AND SRN PARTS OF ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE FLATTENING OF THE
UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. A STRONG MID LEVEL JET
STREAK /80-90 KT AT 500 MB/ ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE
EWD FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO NRN MT PROVIDING STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
OVER THE REGION.

A PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL MT INTO CNTRL ID AND SERN
OREGON BY 00Z...AND REACHING A CENTRAL ND/NRN WY/NW UT LINE BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MARGINAL WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S...LATEST SATELLITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 0.75 INCH INDICATE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO SUPPORT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...GIVEN THE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN FAVORED TERRAIN
LOCATIONS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL DIABATIC
HEATING FROM ERN OREGON ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN A DEEP SURFACE-BASED MIXED LAYER
WITH CAPE REACHING 300-500 J/KG. CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH-BASED
STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM NERN OREGON INTO WRN MT
DURING THE 21-00Z PERIOD...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING ENEWD INTO
TONIGHT. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION
WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS OR SUPERCELLS TO OCCUR WITH
STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL/NERN MT FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET BEFORE STORMS BEGIN
WEAKENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING/STABILIZATION OCCUR.

...SERN FL PENINSULA...
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SWD FROM CENTRAL INTO SRN FL...CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM NEAR PBI SWD TO MIA. 12Z
SOUNDINGS AT MFL AND KEY EXHIBIT MID LEVEL FLOW NEAR 30 KT
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT WEAKLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION...AND WITH DRY AIR
INDICATED ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL STORMS TO PRODUCE WET MICROBURSTS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS.

...MID ATLANTIC REGION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH FOCUSED LARGE SCALE ASCENT
SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF WV/VA/NRN NC THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE...STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
EXHIBIT SUFFICIENT CAPE WITHIN THE MIXED-PHASE HYDROMETEOR REGION TO
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHTNING FLASHES TO DEVELOP WITHIN
STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

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KMQT [131911]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 131911
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
311 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 1 SSE CHATHAM 46.33N 86.92W
05/12/2013 M3.0 INCH ALGER MI CO-OP OBSERVER

DELAYED REPORT. 24 HOUR TOTAL. LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF 0.62
INCHES OF RAIN AND SNOW.


&&

$$

KLUBER

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0635

ACUS11 KWNS 131907
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131907
MTZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-132130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0635
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN ORE...SERN WA...CNTRL ID...PORTIONS OF
WRN/CNTRL MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 131907Z - 132130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...AS THE RISK FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND SVR HAIL
INCREASES.

DISCUSSION...DIURNALLY DEEPENING PBL CIRCULATIONS INTO A MID-LEVEL
MOIST PLUME THAT ANTICYCLONICALLY ARCS AROUND THE CREST OF A
NRN-GREAT-BASIN/NRN-ROCKIES RIDGE IS ALLOWING SFC DEWPOINTS TO HOLD
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AMIDST PW VALUES
OF 0.65-0.80 INCH PER GPS DATA. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING WILL YIELD
SBCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITHIN A ZONE
OF 6-7-C/KM 700-500-MB LAPSE RATES OVER THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. STRENGTHENING OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS WILL ALLOW CONVECTION
TO DEEPEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH ZONES OF
PREFERENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
/1/ MOUNTAINS OF NERN ORE INTO SERN WA AND CNTRL ID IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AND LEADING
ZONE OF STRONG MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT/HEIGHT FALLS/SFC
FRONT...AND
/2/ MORE ISOLATED MOUNTAINS IN CNTRL MT NEAR AND S OF GTF WHERE
AREAS OF UPSLOPE FLOW EXIST PER TFX VWP DATA AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL APPROACH DRY ADIABATIC.

ONCE STORMS DEVELOP -- MOST LIKELY IN THE 20-22Z TIME FRAME -- THEY
WILL QUICKLY MOVE ENEWD/EWD OWING TO STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE. VWP DATA UPSTREAM ALREADY
INDICATE WSWLY FLOW HAVING INCREASED TO AOA 50 KT ABOVE 4 KM AGL PER
UPSTREAM OBS ACROSS WA. THIS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG DEEP
SHEAR...SUPPORTING HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS WITH SVR HAIL AND DMGG
WINDS. ONE OR TWO CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS COULD EVOLVE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS OF CNTRL MT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS
DEEP MIXED LAYERS ENHANCE STRONG SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION...POTENTIALLY
SUPPORTING MERGING COLD POOLS. DMGG WIND GUSTS WOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITH ANY MORE ORGANIZED BOWING SEGMENTS.

..COHEN/WEISS.. 05/13/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...

LAT...LON 43981856 43961961 44801992 45561926 46621704 48051255
48640881 48150715 47020704 46560882 45781282 45311455
44301734 43981856

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KKEY [131821]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 131821
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
221 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1155 AM WATER SPOUT 3 W KEY WEST 24.55N 81.80W
05/13/2013 LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL PUBLIC

TWO WATERSPOUTS WERE REPORTED 3 NM TO THE WEST AND 7 NM
TO THE WEST OF KEY WEST RESPECTIVELY.

1157 AM WATER SPOUT 1 N SUGARLOAF KEY 24.64N 81.55W
05/13/2013 GMZ035 FL TRAINED SPOTTER

1205 PM WATER SPOUT 1 N KEY WEST 24.57N 81.76W
05/13/2013 LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL PUBLIC

1231 PM WATER SPOUT 21 WSW MARQUESAS KEYS 24.46N 82.44W
05/13/2013 GMZ044 XX PUBLIC

KEY WEST AIRPORT TOWER RELAYED A MARINERS REPORT OF A
WATERSPOUT THAT WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED 6NM SOUTH OF
HALFMOON SHOAL LIGHT.

1232 PM WATER SPOUT 5 WSW KEY WEST 24.53N 81.83W
05/13/2013 GMZ044 FL PUBLIC

WATERSPOUT WAS REPORTED VIA FACEBOOK IN THE VICINITY OF
CRAWFISH KEY.


&&

$$

MBLOEMER

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 131725
SWODY2
SPC AC 131723

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD ALONG THE NERN ATLANTIC COAST...WITH
GENERALLY WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE SRN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. A BELT OF STRONG WLYS ALOFT WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE NRN TIER...WITH AN EMBEDDED LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS E-SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. FARTHER S...AN INITIALLY CLOSED UPPER
LOW OVER NRN MEX WILL WEAKEN AND PROGRESS NEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS
AND PHASE WITH THE SRN PERIPHERY OF WLY FLOW ALOFT.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MS VALLEY...
AN EML PLUME EMANATING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES WILL SPREAD EWD IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH SKIRTING THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER. MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION NWD WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE
WARM-SECTOR PRECEDING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WHICH IS FORECAST
TO EXTEND FROM ERN MN SWWD INTO NWRN IA AND NERN NEB BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AS HAS BEEN FREQUENTLY BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FIELDS IN SUITE OF 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE APPEAR TO BE
SUBSTANTIALLY OVERDONE. MORE REALISTICALLY...SFC DEW POINTS IN THE
50S F AT BEST APPEAR LIKELY GIVEN A LACK OF A SUBSTANTIAL UPSTREAM
MOISTURE SOURCE ON LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG
HEATING FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 90S
F...COMBINED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BECOME UNSTABLE WITH ESTIMATED MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SVR POTENTIAL ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...THE RISK APPEARS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE WELL N OF THE MOST
UNSTABLE AIR. HOWEVER...IF ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS CAN
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...AN ACCOMPANYING
THREAT FOR HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS COULD EXIST. A RISK FOR HAIL MAY
ALSO ACCOMPANY ELEVATED CONVECTION N OF A WARM FRONT...DRAPED ACROSS
FAR NERN MN...NRN WI...AND SEWD INTO CNTRL MI...AND COULD EXTEND
INTO EARLY WED AS LOW-LEVEL WAA STRENGTHENS.

..ROGERS/BUNTING.. 05/13/2013

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131621
SWODY1
SPC AC 131619

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

VALID 131630Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...

...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH OFF THE
PACIFIC NW COAST PROGRESSING EWD IN ADVANCE OF AN UPSTREAM SYSTEM
APPROACHING 145W. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LEAD SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO WA/OREGON BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
ENEWD TONIGHT TOWARD NRN MT AND SRN PARTS OF ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE FLATTENING OF THE
UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. A STRONG MID LEVEL JET
STREAK /80-90 KT AT 500 MB/ ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE
EWD FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO NRN MT PROVIDING STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
OVER THE REGION.

A PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL MT INTO CNTRL ID AND SERN
OREGON BY 00Z...AND REACHING A CENTRAL ND/NRN WY/NW UT LINE BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MARGINAL WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S...LATEST SATELLITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 0.75 INCH INDICATE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO SUPPORT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...GIVEN THE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN FAVORED TERRAIN
LOCATIONS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL DIABATIC
HEATING FROM ERN OREGON ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN A DEEP SURFACE-BASED MIXED LAYER
WITH CAPE REACHING 300-500 J/KG. CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH-BASED
STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM NERN OREGON INTO WRN MT
DURING THE 21-00Z PERIOD...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING ENEWD INTO
TONIGHT. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION
WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS OR SUPERCELLS TO OCCUR WITH
STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL/NERN MT FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET BEFORE STORMS BEGIN
WEAKENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING/STABILIZATION OCCUR.

...SERN FL PENINSULA...
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SWD FROM CENTRAL INTO SRN FL...CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM NEAR PBI SWD TO MIA. 12Z
SOUNDINGS AT MFL AND KEY EXHIBIT MID LEVEL FLOW NEAR 30 KT
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT WEAKLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION...AND WITH DRY AIR
INDICATED ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL STORMS TO PRODUCE WET MICROBURSTS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS.

...MID ATLANTIC REGION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH FOCUSED LARGE SCALE ASCENT
SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF WV/VA/NRN NC THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE...STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
EXHIBIT SUFFICIENT CAPE WITHIN THE MIXED-PHASE HYDROMETEOR REGION TO
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHTNING FLASHES TO DEVELOP WITHIN
STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

..WEISS/COHEN.. 05/13/2013

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KEWX [131417]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 131417
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
916 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0705 PM HAIL 2 NW PEARSALL 28.91N 99.11W
05/10/2013 M3.50 INCH FRIO TX NWS EMPLOYEE

DELAYED REPORT


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1300458

$$

CVP

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KAKQ [131245]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 131245
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
845 AM EDT MON MAY 13 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM TSTM WND DMG MARTINS CORNER 37.11N 78.14W
05/11/2013 NOTTOWAY VA TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL TREES BROKEN OFF AT THE GROUND DOWNING
POWERLINES. DIME SIZE HAIL WAS ALSO OBSERVED.


&&

EVENT NUMBER AKQ1300533

$$

AJZ

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131236
SWODY1
SPC AC 131234

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

VALID 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FAR NERN ORE INTO PARTS OF
ERN MT...

...SYNOPSIS...

THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL DEAMPLIFY THROUGH THE D1 PERIOD OWING
TO THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE ERN CONUS TROUGH INTO THE WRN
ATLANTIC...AND THE UPSTREAM FLATTENING OF A RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN
AND NRN ROCKIES. THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST WITHIN THIS
BROAD-SCALE REGIME IS A POLAR BRANCH SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED 70-80 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK WHICH WILL TRANSLATE FROM
JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST TO SRN PARTS OF AB/SK AND THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS BY 14/12Z. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A CHINOOK-TYPE WARM FRONT
WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS TODAY AHEAD OF A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NW AND NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS.

...NRN ROCKIES INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PW
VALUES OF 0.6-0.9 INCH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS TODAY AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC FRONT WITH SBCAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 500-800 J/KG. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT STORM INITIATION WILL OCCUR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN TWO
SEPARATE REGIMES: 1) ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/ASCENT WILL BE AUGMENTED BY DCVA ATTENDANT TO THE
MIGRATORY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THE OTHER INITIATION ZONE /2)/ APPEARS
TO BE FARTHER E OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF CNTRL MT INVOF THE
DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE AND WEAK WARM FRONT.

MODEL-DERIVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY COOL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES AND STRONG /50-70 KT/ DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL SUPPORT
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL. OVER CNTRL MT...A DEEPER PBL WITH LARGE T-TD
SPREADS IS ANTICIPATED WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER --BUT STILL MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT /40-50 KT/-- VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH WILL PROMOTE HIGH-BASED
STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES WITH A RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. THIS THREAT MAY SPREAD INTO
ERN MT TONIGHT BEFORE THE STORMS GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE PBL COOLS
AND DECOUPLES.

...SRN FL THIS AFTERNOON...

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY JUST S OF A DAB-OCF LINE...WILL CONTINUE
SWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FL PENINSULA BY TONIGHT. THIS
FRONT AND THE DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO SERVE
AS FOCI FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z OBSERVED
SOUNDINGS SHOWED WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL TEMPER THE
DEGREE OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE. NONETHELESS...SUFFICIENT PARCEL BUOYANCY AND
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT MARGINAL STORM ORGANIZATION
WITH A LOW-PROBABILITY RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.

..MEAD/MOSIER.. 05/13/2013

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 130845
SWOD48
SPC AC 130844

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

VALID 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE U.S. FOR LATE THIS WEEK /FRI. THROUGH SUN. MAY
17-19/...AS A WRN U.S. TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD INTO THE PLAINS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO THE EJECTION OF
THIS FEATURE...WITH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS GRADUALLY
INCREASING WITH TIME. STILL...A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR CENTRAL U.S.
SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN HINTED AT FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WITH CURRENT
INDICATIONS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT MAY EXIST BEGINNING DAY 6 /SAT.
5-18/. WHILE THE GFS HINTS AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAY 5/FRIDAY --
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS VICINITY...THE SLOWER ECMWF
MAINTAINS RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS DAY 5. THUS...FOCUS THIS
FORECAST WILL BE ON DAY 6...WITH THE ZONE OF OVERLAP OF THE TWO
MODEL SOLUTIONS EXISTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS VICINITY. WITH
STRONG INSTABILITY EXPECTED AND SHEAR LIKELY SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG
WITH SOME TORNADO RISK.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD LIKELY PERSIST -- THOUGH FARTHER E
-- FOR DAY 7/SUNDAY...BUT WITH DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS
INCREASING AND WITH LIKELIHOOD FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DAY 6
INFLUENCING DAY 7 CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...WILL REFRAIN ATTM FROM ANY
AREAL ISSUANCE BEYOND DAY 6.

..GOSS.. 05/13/2013

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 130728
SWODY3
SPC AC 130726

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MINOR AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST OVER THE U.S.
WEDNESDAY/DAY 3...AS WEAK PHASING BETWEEN THE ERN CANADA SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH AND THE SECOND CROSSING THE S CENTRAL STATES IS
EXPECTED...WHILE FARTHER W AN ERN PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE W
COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...AN INCREASINGLY E-W COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIE
ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION AND WWD INTO KS THROUGH THE
PERIOD -- PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

...PARTS OF ERN OH/PA/NRN WV/MD/NRN VA...
AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT BECOMES INCREASINGLY W-E ORIENTED ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY REGION...EXPECT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WWD.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT MODEL DEPICTIONS OF BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE IS OVERDONE -- WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS EVOLVING WITHIN THE
MODELS DAY 2 /TUESDAY/ INVOF THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS AND THEN
SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...THE
ACTUAL DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION INVOF THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN MUCH
LOWER THAN FORECAST -- THUS LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL. STILL...WITH
MODERATELY-STRONG FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION...WILL INTRODUCE 5%
SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THIS REGION.


...NRN AND CENTRAL TX AND VICINITY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SRN PLAINS
REGION AS A RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING COMBINING WITH MODEST MID-LEVEL
COOLING...MODERATE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...WITH FLOW ALOFT PROGGED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED -- SUPPORTIVE OF ONLY LOW /5%/
SEVERE PROBABILITY FORECAST ATTM. THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY
DIURNAL IN NATURE...DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.

..GOSS.. 05/13/2013

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 130548
SWODY2
SPC AC 130547

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A DE-AMPLIFYING UPPER FLOW FIELD IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE ERN NOAM
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES VACATING THE NERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IN ITS WAKE...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL INCREASINGLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NRN HALF OF THE U.S. -- THOUGH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS
ARE PROGGED TO SHIFT QUICKLY EWD WITHIN THE FAST WLY FLOW. ONE SUCH
TROUGH -- PROGGED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES
AND ADJACENT N CENTRAL U.S. -- WILL SUPPORT LOW-END SEVERE RISK FOR
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MS VALLEY AREA...
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS...IT STILL APPEARS THAT A
CAPPED WARM SECTOR WILL EXIST OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THIS
REGION. WHILE FAVORABLY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WOULD OTHERWISE PORTEND RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...IT
APPEARS THAT ASIDE FROM A ROGUE/ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORM INVOF THE
COLD FRONT...CAPPING SHOULD PROVE SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO MITIGATE
MOST OF THIS POTENTIAL.

SOME THREAT FOR HAIL REMAINS APPARENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT
DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY INVOF NRN LOWER MI AS A
LOW-LEVEL JET AIMS INTO THIS REGION INCREASING QG-FORCED ASCENT.
OTHERWISE HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5% SEVERE RISK ALONG THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON -- EXTENDING AS FAR SWWD AS NERN NEB/WRN
IA NEAR THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT.

..GOSS.. 05/13/2013

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 130546
SWODY1
SPC AC 130544

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NRN ROCKIES...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NRN ROCKIES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING AND MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...A COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS NE ORE...NRN ID AND WRN MT
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WIND SHIFT WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS SFC TEMPS WARM
DURING THE DAY. MODEL FORECASTS FIRST GENERATE CONVECTION IN NE ORE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPAND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE NEWD ACROSS NRN
ID AND NCNTRL MT BY LATE AFTERNOON.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE WIND SHIFT AT 21Z FROM NE ORE NEWD INTO
WCNTRL MT GENERALLY SHOW SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG
RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 65 TO 75 KT
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT DESTABILIZE THE MOST. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD
TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION. IN ADDITION...TEMP-DEWPOINT
SPREADS OF 25 TO 30 DEGREES F MAY HELP ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT SPEEDS
RESULTING IN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

...SRN FL...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS SRN FL TODAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SRN EXTENSION OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SE FL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN
THE MIAMI AREA AT 21Z SHOW MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS
COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT.

..BROYLES.. 05/13/2013

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