MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2253

ACUS11 KWNS 180437
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180436
FLZ000-180630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2253
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1036 PM CST THU DEC 17 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH FL

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 180436Z - 180630Z

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST
FL COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING THE MIAMI AREA TO FORT
LAUDERDALE/BOCA RATON VICINITIES AND SURROUNDING I-95/URBAN
CORRIDOR. LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR SHOULD CONTINUE MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT.

A VERY MOIST AIRMASS /1.79 INCHES PW PER 00Z OBSERVED MIAMI RAOB/ IN
CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW/NEAR-SHORE
CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF SOUTH FL PENINSULA WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. WITH
TIME...RAINFALL RATES COULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH/SHIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT/PREDAWN
HOURS...ATTRIBUTABLE TO A DIMINISHING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
COMPONENT/STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND/OR THE NORTHWARD
RETREAT OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM GULF
OF MEXICO SHORTWAVE TROUGH. OTHERWISE...EVEN WITH PERIODIC ROTATING
STORMS NOTED OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WATERSPOUT/TORNADO
POTENTIAL SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LOW INLAND ACROSS SOUTH FL OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OWING TO WEAK INSTABILITY AND INITIALLY
MODEST /BUT GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING/ FLOW ABOVE 2 KM.

..GUYER.. 12/18/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

LAT...LON 27118029 26977987 25408022 25668046 26638030 27118029

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KMLB [180343]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 180343
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1042 PM EST THU DEC 17 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0910 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 W PORT SAINT LUCIE 27.27N 80.43W
12/17/2009 M6.86 INCH ST. LUCIE FL BROADCAST MEDIA

MEDIA REPORTED 6.86 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 910 PM IN THE
COMMUNITY OF TRADITION

&&

$$

DVD

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KMLB [180254]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 180254
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
953 PM EST THU DEC 17 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0940 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 W PORT SAINT LUCIE 27.29N 80.43W
12/17/2009 M12.13 INCH ST. LUCIE FL TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER MEASURED OVER A FOOT OF RAIN FOR THE DAY WITH 6
INCHES FALLING IN 90 MINUTES THIS EVENING

&&

$$

DVD

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 180033
SWODY1
SPC AC 180031

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0631 PM CST THU DEC 17 2009

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN/WRN FL...
00Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A 1008 MB LOW NEAR BUOY 42002 IN THE WRN
GULF OF MEXICO AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING SWD TO THE CNTRL
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NRN BELIZE. FRONT THAT SETTLED SWD INTO SRN
FL DURING THE PAST 24-HRS WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NWD INTO CNTRL FL
WHILE A SECONDARY WRMFNT WAS MOVING NWD INTO THE CNTRL GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE FL KEYS.

STG TSTMS HAVE BEEN THRIVING ALONG THE SERN ATLC CST FROM SOUTH OF
VERO BEACH TO MIAMI BEACH FOR SVRL HRS. HERE...DEFAULT SPEED
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE E CST AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT /00Z
MLCAPE AT MFL AROUND 870 J PER KG/ CONTRIBUTED TO STORM DEVELOPMENT.
MODEST ENE LLVL FLOW VEERING QUICKLY TO SWLY IN THE MID-LVLS WAS
PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR BRIEF STORM
ORGANIZATION...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. A COUPLE OF
BRIEF WATERSPOUTS/TORNADOES AND/OR DMGG WIND GUSTS COULD YET OCCUR
OVER CSTL SERN FL THIS EVENING.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE STG UPR SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CNTRL
GULF BASIN. TSTMS WERE ALREADY FORMING ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AND THE ACTIVITY SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO A SQLN LATER TONIGHT AS
PRIMARY FORCING ALOFT BECOMES COUPLED WITH THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT.
STORMS WILL BE LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE WRN FL BY 12Z.
HOWEVER...HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ISOLD TSTM
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ALONG THE RETREATING WRMFNT INTO SWRN FL/KEYS
LATER TONIGHT AMIDST MODEST DESTABILIZATION/INCREASING SHEAR.
THUS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW SVR PROBABILITIES FOR LATER TONIGHT ACROSS
THESE REGIONS...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF A BRIEF WATERSPOUT/TORNADO
OR DMGG WIND GUST.

..RACY.. 12/18/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171942
SWODY1
SPC AC 171940

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 PM CST THU DEC 17 2009

VALID 172000Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...S FL...
NO CHANGES APPEAR NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...WITH LIMITED
SEVERE POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS LIFTING NWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA.
INCREASING SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION MAY EVENTUALLY SUPPORT A FEW
ROTATING CELLS...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN 2% TORNADO PROBABILITY ALONG
WITH LOW-END WIND POTENTIAL.

..GOSS.. 12/17/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST THU DEC 17 2009/

...S FL...
VERY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTH OF STALLED SFC
FRONT ACROSS THE SRN TIP OF FL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL
BOUNDARIES EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL GOM. THESE SHOULD CONSOLIDATE
INTO A WARM FRONT AND LIFT NNEWD LATE TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS/DEEPENS AND SHIFTS TO JUST OFF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF SRN STREAM
IMPULSE SPREADING ACROSS ERN TX/WRN GULF BASIN EARLY TODAY.

PERSISTENT...MOIST ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WWD ACROSS S FL THROUGH THE DAY WITHIN MODERATE
INSTABILITY. A FEW MORE ROBUST STORMS MAY BECOME MARGINALLY
SEVERE...ALTHOUGH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TODAY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE LATE IN THE
PERIOD AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS BOTH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
MOISTURE INCREASE ACROSS THE ERN GOM AHEAD OF APPROACHING SRN STREAM
SYSTEM. ACTIVITY WILL APPROACH THE FL WEST COAST TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS WITH
THREATS FOR SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS AND/OR A TORNADO INCREASING
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

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KDLH [171835]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 171835
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1235 PM CST THU DEC 17 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM SNOW INTERNATIONAL FALLS 48.59N 93.41W
12/17/2009 M1.0 INCH KOOCHICHING MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS

SNOW DEPTH 6 INCHES

&&

$$

KK

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 171721
SWODY2
SPC AC 171720

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CST THU DEC 17 2009

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL
PENINSULA...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL CONTINUE EWD THIS
PERIOD...EXPANDING WITH TIME AS A SERIES OF SMALLER-SCALE/SHORT-WAVE
FEATURES ROTATE THROUGH THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD.

ONE OF THESE SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE SERN
U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...DRIVING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE ERN
GULF EARLY. THE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...MOVING NEWD ACROSS -- OR JUST OFF -- THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

...FL PENINSULA...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NEWD ACROSS FL/GA THROUGH THE DAY WILL ALLOW A
VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS FL...AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT -- TRAILING SWWD FROM A DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE --
CROSSING THE ERN GULF/APPROACHING FL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD.

WHILE THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL AID IN MAINTAINING A
WEAKLY-UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR...WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL HINDER
MORE APPRECIABLE DESTABILIZATION. NONETHELESS...DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS -- CONCENTRATED
INVOF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT...AND THEN LATER ALONG THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA.

WITH ENHANCED SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION ATOP LOW-LEVEL
SELYS...SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION/SUSTAINED STORMS...AS WELL AS LOW-LEVEL ROTATION.
THUS...WITH A FEW LONGER-LIVED STORMS LIKELY TO EVOLVE...THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IS
APPARENT.

..GOSS.. 12/17/2009

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KMLB [171625]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 171625
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1124 AM EST THU DEC 17 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM HEAVY RAIN PORT SAINT LUCIE 27.24N 80.37W
12/17/2009 M2.50 INCH ST. LUCIE FL TRAINED SPOTTER

2.50 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE 930 AM. SWALES BEGINNING TO
FILL.

&&

$$

FXD

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171607
SWODY1
SPC AC 171605

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1005 AM CST THU DEC 17 2009

VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...S FL...
VERY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTH OF STALLED SFC
FRONT ACROSS THE SRN TIP OF FL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL
BOUNDARIES EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL GOM. THESE SHOULD CONSOLIDATE
INTO A WARM FRONT AND LIFT NNEWD LATE TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS/DEEPENS AND SHIFTS TO JUST OFF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF SRN STREAM
IMPULSE SPREADING ACROSS ERN TX/WRN GULF BASIN EARLY TODAY.

PERSISTENT...MOIST ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WWD ACROSS S FL THROUGH THE DAY WITHIN MODERATE
INSTABILITY. A FEW MORE ROBUST STORMS MAY BECOME MARGINALLY
SEVERE...ALTHOUGH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TODAY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE LATE IN THE
PERIOD AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS BOTH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
MOISTURE INCREASE ACROSS THE ERN GOM AHEAD OF APPROACHING SRN STREAM
SYSTEM. ACTIVITY WILL APPROACH THE FL WEST COAST TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS WITH
THREATS FOR SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS AND/OR A TORNADO INCREASING
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

..EVANS.. 12/17/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171232
SWODY1
SPC AC 171231

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0631 AM CST THU DEC 17 2009

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A TREND TOWARD INCREASED AMPLIFICATION WILL BEGIN THIS PERIOD AS
DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE NRN RCKYS CONTINUES SE INTO THE CNTRL
PLNS...AND SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FAR WEST. IN
RESPONSE...S TX DISTURBANCE SHOULD ACCELERATE ENE TO THE CNTRL GULF
CST BY 12Z FRI AS IT BECOMES FURTHER ABSORBED WITHIN STRENGTHENING
WSW FLOW AHEAD OF PLNS TROUGH.

AT LWR LVLS...WEAK SFC CYCLONE NOW OVER THE NW GULF SHOULD TRACK ENE
TO THE AREA S OF MOBILE BAY EARLY FRI...SLIGHTLY DEEPENING IN THE
PROCESS. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT EXTENDING E
INTO FL SHOULD BECOME BETTER DEFINED WITH TIME...SFC PATTERN WILL BE
COMPLICATED BY WAA RAIN/STORMS...AND BY SHALLOW WARM FRONTAL
SEGMENTS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG LAND/SEA INTERFACES BORDERING THE
FL PENINSULA.

...PARTS OF SRN FL...
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE OVER ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND S
FL WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRI AS LWR TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW STRENGTHENS AND VEERS AHEAD OF GULF SFC WAVE.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND WAA LIKELY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT AND NEWD SPREAD OF CONVECTION/STORMS NOW OVER THE CNTRL
GULF. THIS ACTIVITY WILL APPROACH THE FL W CST TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD. SFC-BASED INSTABILITY LIKELY WILL BE WEAK GIVEN TIME OF
DAY AND WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES. BUT GIVEN COMBINATION OF
INCREASINGLY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND APPRECIABLE SHEAR
/BOTH LOW LVL DIRECTIONAL AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR/...POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR A SMALL BOW OR
TWO AND/OR A TORNADO.

IN THE MEAN TIME...CSTL BOUNDARY/TROUGH MARKING LAND-SEA INTERFACE
ALONG THE SE FL CST SSW INTO THE EVERGLADES LIKELY WILL REMAIN A
FOCUS FOR SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN ISOLD
WATERSPOUT OR TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THIS FEATURE
TODAY...ALTHOUGH MODEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT
DURATION/SCOPE/INTENSITY OF ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT. A GRADUALLY
INCREASING SVR THREAT MAY...HOWEVER...EVOLVE ALONG THIS FEATURE...OR
OTHER SIMILAR LOW LVL BOUNDARIES...OVER SRN/E CNTRL FL TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRI AS WINDS...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...AND FORCING FOR ASCENT
INCREASE AHEAD OF GULF WAVE.

..CORFIDI.. 12/17/2009

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KMQT [171223]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 171223
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
722 AM EST THU DEC 17 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 2 NNW SNYDER LAKE 46.51N 85.96W
12/17/2009 M2.2 INCH ALGER MI CO-OP OBSERVER

IN LAST 24 HOURS. SNOW DEPTH OF 18 INCHES.

&&

$$

SRF

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 170802
SWOD48
SPC AC 170802

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 AM CST THU DEC 17 2009

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND OFFSHORE FLOW DAY 4-5 WHICH WILL PRECLUDE A
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS.

DAY 6-7 MODELS INDICATE ERN U.S. TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY ALLOWING A
LOWER LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO EJECT INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND
LOWER MS VALLEY. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN MODELS
REGARDING EVOLUTION OF THIS TRANSITIONAL PATTERN. GFS IN PARTICULAR
HAS NOT DEMONSTRATED RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. PREDICTABILITY BEYOND
DAY 5 IS LOW DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT INCREASE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SRN STREAM IMPULSE...WHICH
WILL IMPACT THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN AVAILABLE FOR ANY SEVERE
THREAT ALONG THE GULF COASTAL AREAS.

..DIAL.. 12/17/2009

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 170612
SWODY3
SPC AC 170611

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 AM CST THU DEC 17 2009

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...

BY SUNDAY A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE EVOLVED OVER THE ERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY WITH A CORRESPONDING UPSTREAM RIDGE ALONG THE WRN
U.S. COAST. CP HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE CNTRL AND ERN
STATES PROMOTING OFFSHORE FLOW AND STABLE CONDITIONS.

..DIAL.. 12/17/2009

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KHNX [170557]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 170557
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
956 PM PST WED DEC 16 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0936 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG MOJAVE 35.05N 118.18W
12/07/2009 KERN CA COUNTY OFFICIAL

WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED AT 70-80 MPH CAUSED SEVERAL LARGE
TEMPORARY STRUCTURES TO FAIL DURING THE UNVEILING EVENT
OF SPACESHIP 2 AT THE MOJAVE SPACEPORT. LOCAL OFFICIALS
ESTIMATE PROPERTY DAMAGE AROUND 1 MILLION DOLLARS. WINDS
CONTINUED TO GUST OVER 60 MPH FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS.

&&

$$

JBRO

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170549
SWODY1
SPC AC 170547

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 PM CST WED DEC 16 2009

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
FORMIDABLE UPR-LVL WAVE OVER NERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE
INTO THE LWR MS VLY AND WRN GULF BASIN THURSDAY NIGHT. SFC LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN GULF BASIN WILL CORRESPONDINGLY DEEPEN AND
BEGIN A NEWD TREK TOWARD THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE PERIOD.
TO THE E...A WRMFNT WILL GRADUALLY REDEVELOP E AND N TOWARD WRN FL
AND NWD THROUGH SRN FL BY 12Z FRIDAY.

...SWRN/SRN FL...
LLVL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS SRN FL AND THE ERN GULF
BASIN...MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BEGINS BACKING
TO THE SE. INCREASING MAGNITUDE OF WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY DRIVE
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS/CONVECTION DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...MITIGATING STRONG DESTABILIZATION. NONETHELESS... EFFECTIVE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST ISOLD STRONG STORMS
ACROSS CSTL SERN FL WHERE STRONGEST HEATING IS LIKELY.

TSTM AND LOW SVR PROBABILITIES WILL ESCALATE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS
HIGHER-QUALITY LLVL THETA-E AIR MASS SURGES NWD AND LARGER SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD TOWARD THE ERN GULF BASIN/WRN FL. STRONGER
STORMS...POSSIBLY A DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE...SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE
WRN FL THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. BUT...ISOLD STORMS CAPABLE OF DMGG WIND
GUSTS OR PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO COULD DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM INVOF THE
RETREATING WRMFNT IN SWRN/SRN FL THURSDAY NIGHT.

..RACY.. 12/17/2009

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 170525
SWODY2
SPC AC 170524

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 PM CST WED DEC 16 2009

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTH THROUGH N-CNTRL
FL...

...SYNOPSIS...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN MEXICO WILL EJECT EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND NRN GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY...THEN ACROSS THE SERN U.S.
INCLUDING THE FL PENINSULA FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING NRN
STREAM WAVE. ECMWF...GFS AND NAM REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SRN STREAM TROUGH. MODEST CYCLOGENESIS
IS FORECAST OVER THE NRN GULF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS IMPULSE. THE
LOW WILL DEVELOP EAST AND ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF FL
OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NWD THROUGH CNTRL FL
PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.


...FL PENINSULA...

A SLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS FL IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE PENINSULA...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION LIKELY OVER NRN FL THROUGH THE SERN STATES NORTH OF
WARM FRONT. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE WARM FRONT TO DEVELOP NWD
DURING THE DAY...BUT NWD ADVANCE OF THE MOISTER WARM SECTOR COULD BE
LIMITED BY ONGOING PRECIPITATION AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER THE ERN U.S. THEREFORE...IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST
DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH AND CNTRL FL
WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 SOUTH OF
WARM FRONT. DEEP LAYER WINDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN TO
AOA 40 KT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE WITHIN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THREAT
WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
LIMITED BY WEAK LAPSE RATES...WIDESPREAD MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION. FOR THIS REASON...MORE THAN 15% SEVERE
PROBABILITIES DO NOT APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

..DIAL.. 12/17/2009

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