KMFL [182200]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 182200
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
600 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM TSTM WND GST 10 NW PAHOKEE 26.90N 80.79W
05/18/2012 M40.00 MPH AMZ610 FL MESONET

A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCED A WIND GUST OF 35 KTS OR 40 MPH
AT MESONET SITE LZ40 OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

0503 PM TSTM WND GST 7 W PAHOKEE 26.82N 80.78W
05/18/2012 M51.00 MPH AMZ610 FL MESONET

A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCED A WIND GUST OF 44 KTS OR 51 MPH
AT MESONET SITE L006 OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE.


&&

$$

CARACOZZA

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KMRX [182155]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMRX 182155
LSRMRX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
555 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM HAIL 6 NE FARRAGUT 35.94N 84.11W
05/18/2012 E0.25 INCH KNOX TN PUBLIC


&&

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0832

ACUS11 KWNS 182154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182154
MNZ000-IAZ000-182300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0832
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL / SRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 182154Z - 182300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG TSTMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY ENHANCED WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO MID-EVENING. A
WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED OWING TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT.

DISCUSSION...A N-S BAND OF TSTMS HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED FROM NEAR
STC SWD TO JUST N OF FRM...APPARENTLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK
MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING NEWD THROUGH THE MID-MO
VALLEY. AMBIENT AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY A HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE T-TD SPREADS ARE APPROACHING 50 F. WHILE
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUB-OPTIMAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND
SUSTENANCE...THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG MAY PROMOTE STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING
POTENTIAL WITH RESULTANT SURFACE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING SEVERE
LEVELS.

..MEAD.. 05/18/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON 43599508 45199480 46019458 46329423 46339337 45699304
44559322 43759366 43579418 43489462 43599508

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KGJT [182141]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 182141
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
341 PM MDT FRI MAY 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0331 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 WSW OXFORD 37.16N 107.75W
05/18/2012 M61 MPH LA PLATA CO ASOS

WIND GUST MEASURED AT THE DURANGO AIRPORT


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1200383

$$

DC

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KGJT [182134]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 182134
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
334 PM MDT FRI MAY 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0255 PM NON-TSTM WND GST PAGOSA JUNCTION 37.03N 107.18W
05/18/2012 M50 MPH ARCHULETA CO AWOS

WIND GUST MEASURED AT THE PAGOSA SPRINGS AIRPORT


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1200382

$$

DC

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KCYS [182133]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KCYS 182133
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
332 PM MDT FRI MAY 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0210 PM TORNADO 9 NNW WHEATLAND 42.17N 105.03W
05/18/2012 PLATTE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

TORNADO OCCURRED BETWEEN 210 AND 220 PM MDT NEAR
INTERSECTION OF I25 AND HIGHWAY 26. 50 FEET WIDE.


&&

$$

HAMMER

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KCYS [182128]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 182128
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
328 PM MDT FRI MAY 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0210 PM TORNADO 9 NNW WHEATLAND 42.17N 105.03W
05/18/2012 PLATTE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

TORNADO OCCURRED BETWEEN 210 AND 220 PM MDT NEAR
INTERSTATE 25 SOUTH OF GUERNSEY. 50 FEET WIDE.


&&

$$

HAMMER

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KJAX [182125]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 182125
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
524 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0640 PM HAIL 3 W ARLINGTON 30.33N 81.66W
05/17/2012 E0.75 INCH DUVAL FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

THE JACKSONVILLE SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTED THAT IT HAILED
FOR AROUND 10 MINUTES DOWNTOWN NEAR THE NEW COURTHOUSE ON
DUVAL STREET. THE HAIL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE SLIGHTLY
LARGER THAN DIME SIZED IN DIAMETER. THE TIME WAS BASED ON
RADAR.


&&

$$

PP

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KUNR [182124]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 182124
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
324 PM MDT FRI MAY 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM HAIL 2 WNW NEMO 44.20N 103.54W
05/18/2012 E1.25 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

KEWY

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KUNR [182124]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KUNR 182124
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
324 PM MDT FRI MAY 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM HAIL 3 NW NEMO 44.23N 103.56W
05/18/2012 E1.00 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL COVERED THE GROUND


&&

$$

KEWY

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KMFL [182118]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 182118
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
518 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM TSTM WND GST 3 ESE CLEWISTON 26.73N 80.89W
05/18/2012 M51.00 MPH HENDRY FL MESONET

A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCED A WIND GUST OF 44 KNOTS OR 51 MPH
AT A MESONET SITE JUST EAST OF CLEWISTON.


&&

$$

CARACOZZA

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KUNR [182115]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 182115
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
315 PM MDT FRI MAY 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0310 PM HAIL 4 NW NEMO 44.23N 103.56W
05/18/2012 E1.00 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL COVERED THE GROUND


&&

$$

KEWY

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KMFL [182059]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 182059
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
459 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0220 PM TSTM WND DMG DORAL 25.84N 80.36W
05/18/2012 MIAMI-DADE FL NWS EMPLOYEE

AN OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED A LARGE TREE DOWN ON
NORTHWEST 58TH ST IN DORAL BETWEEN NORTHWEST 102 AVE AND
NORTHWEST 107 AVE.


&&

$$

CARACOZZA

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0831

ACUS11 KWNS 182054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182054
SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-182230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0831
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...NWRN NEB...SWRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 182054Z - 182230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS DEVELOPING FROM ERN WY INTO SWRN SD AND NWRN NEB
INTO THE EARLY EVENING MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF ANY SEVERE
EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE...AND OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO WARRANT A WW AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN ND SWWD THROUGH
CNTRL AND SWRN SD INTO SERN WY. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED INTO THE
30S SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY FROM SERN WY INTO EXTREME SWRN SD...BUT
ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50F ON THE COOLER SIDE.
MLCAPE HAS INCREASE TO 500 J/KG ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT
WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS ARE
HOLDING IN THE UPPER 40S. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL
INDICATE AN INVERSION PRESENT BETWEEN 850-700 MB. STORMS WILL
CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY...THE BLACK HILLS
OF SD AND GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. OTHER HIGH BASED
ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST IN THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED BUT LOW CAPE
ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF
ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SOME HAIL MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...OVERALL
THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW AT THIS TIME.

..DIAL/WEISS.. 05/18/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON 45070030 43710061 42310230 41480452 42310530 43630509
44300342 45070030

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KSLC [182038]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KSLC 182038
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
238 PM MDT FRI MAY 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 AM TSTM WND GST 3 ESE BLUFFDALE 40.46N 111.90W
05/18/2012 M61.00 MPH SALT LAKE UT MESONET

FLIGHT PARK SOUTH SENSOR

0140 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 W DUCHESNE 40.17N 110.49W
05/18/2012 M59.00 MPH DUCHESNE UT MESONET

STARVATION RESERVOIR SENSOR

0235 PM HAIL PARAGONAH 37.89N 112.77W
05/18/2012 M0.75 INCH IRON UT PUBLIC

DIME SIZED HAIL REPORTED


&&

$$

CRK

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KTFX [182029]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 182029
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
228 PM MDT FRI MAY 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0226 PM HAIL CENTERVILLE 47.39N 111.14W
05/18/2012 E0.25 INCH CASCADE MT PUBLIC

PEA SIZE HAIL... LIGHTNING... BRIEF HEAVY RAIN OF ONE
QUARTER INCH OVER PAST 15 MINUTES.


&&

$$

GUSTAFSON

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KMFL [182026]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 182026
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
426 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0358 PM TSTM WND GST FORT LAUDERDALE 26.12N 80.15W
05/18/2012 M57.00 MPH BROWARD FL MESONET

A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCED A WIND GUST OF 57 MPH JUST WEST
OF DOWNTOWN FORT LAUDERDALE.

0358 PM TSTM WND GST FORT LAUDERDALE 26.12N 80.15W
05/18/2012 M50.00 MPH BROWARD FL MESONET

A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCED A WIND GUST OF 50 MPH JUST
NORTHWEST OF DOWNTOWN FORT LAUDERDALE.

0407 PM TSTM WND GST FORT LAUDERDALE 26.12N 80.15W
05/18/2012 M54.00 MPH BROWARD FL MESONET

A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCED A WIND GUST OF 54 MPH AT BROWARD
GENERAL HOSPITAL IN FORT LAUDERDALE.


&&

$$

CARACOZZA

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KSGX [182023]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 182023
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
122 PM PDT FRI MAY 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 N MORONGO VALLEY 34.21N 116.62W
05/17/2012 M76.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA MESONET

AT BURNS CANYON...WINDS FIRST GUSTED OVER 45 MPH AT 2 PM
ON 5/17/12 AND CONTINUED THROUGH 2 AM ON 5/18/12. THE
PEAK WIND GUST OF 76 MPH OCCURED AT 10 PM PDT.

1100 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 NW PALM SPRINGS 33.95N 116.66W
05/17/2012 M63.00 MPH RIVERSIDE CA MESONET

AT WHITE WATER...WINDS FIRST GUSTED OVER 45 MPH AT 7 PM
ON 5/17/12 AND CONTINUED THROUGH 9 AM ON 5/18/12. THE
PEAK WIND GUST OF 63 MPH OCCURED AT 11 PM PDT.

0100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NE THOUSAND PALMS 33.88N 116.33W
05/18/2012 E74.00 MPH RIVERSIDE CA MESONET

AT SKY VALLEY...WINDS FIRST GUSTED OVER 45 MPH AT 5 PM ON
5/17/12 AND CONTINUED THROUGH 1 PM ON 5/18/12. THE PEAK
WIND GUST OF 74 MPH OCCURED AT 1 AM PDT.

0900 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NNE CATHEDRAL CITY 33.88N 116.44W
05/18/2012 M55.00 MPH RIVERSIDE CA MESONET

AT EDOM HILL...WINDS FIRST GUSTED OVER 45 MPH AT 7 PM ON
5/17/12 AND CONTINUED THROUGH 10 AM 5/18/12. THE PEAK
WIND GUST OF 55 MPH OCCURED AT 9 AM PDT.


&&

$$

JT

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KMFL [181946]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 181946
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
346 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0215 PM TSTM WND DMG DORAL 25.84N 80.36W
05/18/2012 MIAMI-DADE FL BROADCAST MEDIA

TREES DOWN AND WINDOW SCREENS BLOWN OUT IN BALMORAL
ESTATES AND DORAL ISLES IN DORAL. WINDS ESTIMATED 60 TO
70 MPH.

0307 PM TSTM WND GST 5 N FORT LAUDERDALE 26.19N 80.15W
05/18/2012 M47.00 MPH BROWARD FL MESONET

A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCED A WIND GUST OF 47 MPH NEAR
PROSPECT AND POWERLINE ROAD IN FORT LAUDERDALE.


&&

$$

CARACOZZA

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181945
SWODY1
SPC AC 181943

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012

VALID 182000Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF ERN UT/SWRN WY/NWRN
CO...

...FAR ERN UT/SWRN WY/NWRN CO...
THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST HAS
RESULTED IN EARLIER EXPANSION OF STORM COVERAGE THAN INITIALLY
ANTICIPATED...WHICH IN MANY AREAS WILL HINDER MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER -- AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE POTENTIAL FOR EVAPORATIVELY DRIVEN
DAMAGING GUSTS. STILL HOWEVER...THREAT FOR LOCAL GUSTS APPEARS
SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO WARRANT CONTINUATION OF THE SLIGHT RISK ACROSS
THIS AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

...ELSEWHERE...
LOW BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS -- AND THUS LIMITED INSTABILITY --
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND VICINITY. DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF THE NE-SW LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE BISECTING THE
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON...MODEST WARM SECTOR CAPE...LIMITED
SHEAR...AND LIKELIHOOD THAT MOST CONVECTION WILL REMAIN TO THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT SUGGESTS THAT SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE REMAINS
UNNECESSARY ACROSS THIS REGION.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS ALSO ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER LOW LINGERS INVOF THE CAROLINA COAST...BUT
ASIDE FROM S FL -- WHERE MODESTLY ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING
A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE CELLS...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL.

..GOSS.. 05/18/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012/

...ERN UT/SWRN WY INTO WRN CO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH 70-100 M HEIGHT FALLS
AND -18C TEMPERATURE AT 500 MB. DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COUPLED WITH FRONTAL LIFT ALONG AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT HAS RESULTED IN A BAND OF TSTMS FROM THE SERN
ID/SWRN WY BORDER SSWWD INTO CENTRAL UT. ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE CONVECTIVE BAND IS CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEP SFC-BASED MIXED
LAYER AND AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS LIMITED
CLOUDS FROM PARTS OF ERN UT INTO SWRN WY...WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH FROM THE WEST OVER WRN CO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PROMOTE STRONG DIABATIC HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FURTHER
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND CONTRIBUTING TO DEVELOPMENT OF MUCAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG. THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP MIXED LAYER WILL ALSO RESULT
IN LARGE VALUES OF DCAPE...INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS ENHANCED BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS
STORMS SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...ERN WY INTO THE DAKOTAS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONSOLIDATE FROM NERN ND SWWD INTO SERN WY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS ERN MT AND
NERN WY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS LIKELY REMAINING AOB 55F...BUT STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL COMPENSATE TO SOME EXTENT ALLOWING MUCAPE TO REACH
1000-1500 J/KG. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPSTREAM NRN TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE BC/ALTA REGION IS EXPECTED TO
LAG WELL WEST OF THE FRONTAL LOCATION...WITH MESOSCALE LIFT AND
SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MOST CONCENTRATED ALONG/WEST OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL MIXED
LAYER MAY SUPPORT HAIL AND A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE CELLS...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED.

...FAR S FL THIS AFTN...
HIGH LVL WLY JET MAY YIELD AN ENHANCED RISK FOR A FEW PULSE
STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS OVER FAR S FL TODAY...WHERE PW WILL BE AOA
1.50 INCHES AND MID LVL TEMPS RELATIVELY COOL /AROUND MINUS 10C AT
500 MB/.

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KJAX [181930]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KJAX 181930
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
330 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0835 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 W MIDDLEBURG 30.05N 81.92W
05/17/2012 CLAY FL UTILITY COMPANY

CLAY ELECTRIC REPORTED NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES DUE TO TREE
LIMBS ON POWER LINES IN MIDDLEBURG. MARBLE SIZE HAIL WAS
ALSO REPORTED IN THE AREA.


&&

$$

AENYEDI

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KJAX [181926]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KJAX 181926
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
325 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0835 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 E MIDDLEBURG 30.05N 81.89W
05/17/2012 CLAY FL UTILITY COMPANY

CLAY ELECTRIC REPORTED NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES DUE TO TREE
LIMBS ON POWER LINES IN MIDDLEBURG. MARBLE SIZE HAIL WAS
ALSO REPORTED IN THE AREA.


&&

$$

AENYEDI

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KJAX [181922]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 181922
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
322 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0835 PM TSTM WND DMG MIDDLEBURG 30.05N 81.90W
05/17/2012 CLAY FL UTILITY COMPANY

CLAY ELECTRIC REPORTED NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES DUE TO TREE
LIMBS ON POWER LINES IN MIDDLEBURG. MARBLE SIZE HAIL WAS
ALSO REPORTED IN THE AREA.


&&

$$

PKEEGAN

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KMFL [181917]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 181917
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
317 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 NNW KENDALE LAKES 25.76N 80.44W
05/18/2012 MIAMI-DADE FL PUBLIC

LARGE TREE BRANCHES BROKEN OFF NEAR SW 8TH STREET AND SW
147TH AVE.


&&

$$

CARACOZZA

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KMFL [181913]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 181913
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
313 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0215 PM TSTM WND GST DORAL 25.84N 80.36W
05/18/2012 E60 MPH MIAMI-DADE FL PUBLIC

PUBLIC ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH IN DORAL.


&&

$$

GREGORIA

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KMRX [181842]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMRX 181842
LSRMRX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
242 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0235 PM HAIL BIG STONE GAP 36.86N 82.78W
05/18/2012 E1.00 INCH WISE VA TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

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KMFL [181833]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 181833
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
233 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0213 PM HAIL DORAL 25.84N 80.36W
05/18/2012 E0.75 INCH MIAMI-DADE FL PUBLIC

PENNY SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED AT EUGENIA B THOMAS SCHOOL
AT DORAL.

0214 PM HAIL LIGHTHOUSE POINT 26.28N 80.08W
05/18/2012 E1.00 INCH BROWARD FL TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED QUARTER SIZED HAIL TO ALMOST HALF DOLLAR
SIZE, WITH 35-45 MPH WIND GUSTS.

0215 PM HAIL DORAL 25.84N 80.36W
05/18/2012 E1.25 INCH MIAMI-DADE FL TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL SLIGHTLY LARGER THAN A QUARTER WAS REPORTED NEAR NW
41ST AND 107TH AVE AT DORAL.

0217 PM HAIL DORAL 25.84N 80.36W
05/18/2012 E1.00 INCH MIAMI-DADE FL PUBLIC

QUARTER SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED NEAR NW 41 AND NW 58TH
STREETS


&&

$$

RIVERA

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KKEY [181821]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 181821
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
220 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1223 AM WATER SPOUT 2 SSW KEY WEST 24.54N 81.79W
05/16/2012 GMZ044 FL PUBLIC

SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC REPORTED A LARGE...MATURE
WATERSPOUT OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE
OF KEY WEST. WATERSPOUT DURATION IS ESTIMATED AT 22
MINUTES...WITH MOVEMENT NEARLY STATIONARY FOR MOST OF
THIS TIME. THE WATERSPOUT ATTAINED A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION
TOWARD THE END OF ITS LIFE. THE SPOUT APPARENTLY
APPROACHED WITHIN 300 YARDS OF SHORE...NEAR HIGGS BEACH.


&&
THE WATERSPOUT DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORM NEAR A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE LINE.
$$

KASPER

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 181728
SWODY2
SPC AC 181726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN NEB SSWWD INTO WRN OK
AND VICINITY...

...SYNOPSIS...
A WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD...WEAKENING WITH TIME AS ENCOUNTERS
LONGER-WAVELENGTH ERN U.S. RIDGING. MEANWHILE WITHIN THE ERN U.S.
RIDGE...A WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED INVOF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS IS
FORECAST TO LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS THE NRN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PROGRESSING UPPER
TROUGH. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THE MOST ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE THREAT THIS PERIOD.

...KS/OK AND VICINITY...
AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...A
MODESTLY MOIST/HEATING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN WARM SECTOR
MIXED-LAYER CAPE RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. THOUGH
CAPPING SHOULD HINDER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...LATER AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS IS EXPECTED -- INITIALLY FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE LOWER PROBABILITY RISK AREA OF MN/ERN SD AND THEN SWD
WITH TIME ACROSS ERN NEB/CENTRAL KS/WRN OK. WITH 40-PLUS KT
MID-LEVEL SWLYS SPREADING ACROSS THE SERN NEB/KS/OK WARM SECTOR IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE EJECTING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ASSUMING AN
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THUS...A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH THIS THREAT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MITIGATED
BY THE RELATIVELY DRY/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED TO EXIST.

THOUGH A FAIRLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET MAY ALLOW STORMS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS REGION...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER DARK AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND STORMS BECOME
MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME.

..GOSS.. 05/18/2012

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KJAX [181727]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 181727
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
127 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0742 PM HAIL 4 E WAYCROSS 31.20N 82.29W
05/17/2012 E0.25 INCH WARE GA TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT 275 COUNTYLINE ROAD


&&

$$

AWALKER

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KJAX [181718]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 181718
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
118 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0742 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NE WAYCROSS 31.23N 82.34W
05/17/2012 WARE GA 911 CALL CENTER

LARGE TREE DOWN ON CHURCH AT 107 LINDEN DRIVE


&&

$$

AWALKER

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0830

ACUS11 KWNS 181705
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181705
WYZ000-COZ000-UTZ000-181900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0830
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN UT...NWRN CO AND SWRN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 181705Z - 181900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS DEVELOPING FROM NERN UT...NWRN CO INTO SWRN WY WILL
POST A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
INTO THE AFTERNOON. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

DISCUSSION...LATE THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SERN WY
SWWD THROUGH CNTRL AND SWRN UT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN
ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
WITH NEAR SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED
TO AOB 500 J/KG PROVIDING A POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE
ROBUST SEVERE STORM THREAT. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH INCREASINGLY LARGE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL PROMOTE A THREAT OF ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

..DIAL/WEISS.. 05/18/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC...

LAT...LON 41980726 40510787 39490957 40041098 41660987 42440804
41980726

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0829

ACUS11 KWNS 181703
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181703
FLZ000-181830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0829
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...S FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 181703Z - 181830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS S FL THIS
AFTERNOON. WW DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY ATTM.

DISCUSSION...MID-DAY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE 80S ACROSS S FL. THIS HEATING IS AIDING IN STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. AS A
RESULT...VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CUMULUS...WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
FEW HRS. MODIFIED 12Z MFL RAOB FOR A SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE
MID/UPR 80S AND DEWPOINT IN THE LOW 70S YIELDS MLCAPE VALUES NEAR
2500 J/KG. THE STRONG BUOYANCY COMBINED WITH VEERING WIND PROFILES
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SPEEDS /PER AMX VWP/ WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS POSING A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.

..GARNER/WEISS.. 05/18/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

LAT...LON 26618141 26808081 26738000 25298035 25208114 26098165
26618141

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KJAX [181631]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 181631
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1230 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0742 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 ESE WAYCROSS 31.19N 82.30W
05/17/2012 WARE GA 911 CALL CENTER

NUMEROUS TREES DOWND ON STRICKLAND RD


&&

$$

AWALKER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181629
SWODY1
SPC AC 181627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN UT/SWRN WY INTO WRN
CO......

...ERN UT/SWRN WY INTO WRN CO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH 70-100 M HEIGHT FALLS
AND -18C TEMPERATURE AT 500 MB. DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COUPLED WITH FRONTAL LIFT ALONG AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT HAS RESULTED IN A BAND OF TSTMS FROM THE SERN
ID/SWRN WY BORDER SSWWD INTO CENTRAL UT. ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE CONVECTIVE BAND IS CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEP SFC-BASED MIXED
LAYER AND AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS LIMITED
CLOUDS FROM PARTS OF ERN UT INTO SWRN WY...WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH FROM THE WEST OVER WRN CO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PROMOTE STRONG DIABATIC HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FURTHER
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND CONTRIBUTING TO DEVELOPMENT OF MUCAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG. THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP MIXED LAYER WILL ALSO RESULT
IN LARGE VALUES OF DCAPE...INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS ENHANCED BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS
STORMS SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...ERN WY INTO THE DAKOTAS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONSOLIDATE FROM NERN ND SWWD INTO SERN WY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS ERN MT AND
NERN WY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS LIKELY REMAINING AOB 55F...BUT STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL COMPENSATE TO SOME EXTENT ALLOWING MUCAPE TO REACH
1000-1500 J/KG. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPSTREAM NRN TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE BC/ALTA REGION IS EXPECTED TO
LAG WELL WEST OF THE FRONTAL LOCATION...WITH MESOSCALE LIFT AND
SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MOST CONCENTRATED ALONG/WEST OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL MIXED
LAYER MAY SUPPORT HAIL AND A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE CELLS...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED.

...FAR S FL THIS AFTN...
HIGH LVL WLY JET MAY YIELD AN ENHANCED RISK FOR A FEW PULSE
STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS OVER FAR S FL TODAY...WHERE PW WILL BE AOA
1.50 INCHES AND MID LVL TEMPS RELATIVELY COOL /AROUND MINUS 10C AT
500 MB/.

..WEISS/GARNER.. 05/18/2012

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KJAX [181613]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 181613
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1212 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM HAIL 6 E ARLINGTON 30.35N 81.51W
05/17/2012 E0.75 INCH DUVAL FL TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED DIME SIZE HAIL FOR A BRIEF TIME ON THE
SOUTH END OF DERRINGER ROAD.


&&

$$

ARS

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KLKN [181556]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KLKN 181556
LSRLKN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
856 AM PDT FRI MAY 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0250 PM DOWNBURST SPRING CREEK 40.74N 115.60W
05/16/2012 ELKO NV NWS EMPLOYEE

VERY STRONG WIND GUST RIPPED SEVERAL SHINGLES OFF ROOF.
4X4 PIECE OF WOOD HOLDING BIRD HOUSES UP WAS SNAPPED OFF
COMPLETELY AT THE BASE.


&&

$$

86

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KRNK [181546]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 181546
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1145 AM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NW WYTHEVILLE 36.96N 81.10W
05/17/2012 WYTHE VA PUBLIC

SEVERAL 5 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS DOWN ON AKERS ROAD


&&

$$

MBS

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KHNX [181540]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 181540
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
839 AM PDT FRI MAY 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0755 PM NON-TSTM WND GST INYOKERN 35.65N 117.81W
05/17/2012 M45.00 MPH KERN CA AWOS

1013 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE KEENE 35.25N 118.60W
05/17/2012 M45.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET

HART FLAT RAWS

1024 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E MOJAVE 35.06N 118.15W
05/17/2012 M45.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET

MOJAVE NTPS

1215 AM NON-TSTM WND GST MOJAVE 35.05N 118.18W
05/18/2012 M48.00 MPH KERN CA AWOS

0327 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 NE PIUTES 35.54N 118.14W
05/18/2012 M63.00 MPH KERN CA MESONET

BIRD SPRINGS PASS RAWS


&&

$$

MENDENHALL

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KSLC [181536]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 181536
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
936 AM MDT FRI MAY 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 AM TSTM WND GST 3 ESE BLUFFDALE 40.46N 111.90W
05/18/2012 M61 MPH SALT LAKE UT MESONET

FLIGHT PARK SOUTH SENSOR


&&

$$

CRK

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KJAX [181441]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 181441
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1041 AM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 PM TSTM WND DMG POMONA PARK 29.50N 81.59W
05/17/2012 PUTNAM FL 911 CALL CENTER

THE CALL CENTER RECEIVED REPORTS OF TREES DOWN IN POMONA
PARK. THE TIME GIVEN WAS BASED ON RADAR.


&&

$$

PP

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KFFC [181431]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 181431
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1031 AM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 PM HAIL 8 S BUENA VISTA 32.20N 84.52W
05/17/2012 E0.75 INCH MARION GA EMERGENCY MNGR

DIME TO PENNY SIZED HAIL ABOUT 8 MILES SOUTH OF BUENA
VISTA IN SOUTH MARION COUNTY AROUND 730 PM.

0740 PM HAIL 4 N PRESTON 32.12N 84.54W
05/17/2012 E0.75 INCH WEBSTER GA EMERGENCY MNGR

PENNY SIZED HAIL ABOUT 4-5 MILES NORTH OF PRESTON ACROSS
NORTH WEBSTER COUNTY AROUND 740 PM.


&&

$$

DDARBE

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KCAE [181312]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KCAE 181312
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
912 AM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0133 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NNW NEWBERRY 34.29N 81.62W
05/17/2012 NEWBERRY SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

SHERIFF DISPATCH REPORTED TREES DOWN NEAR SMITH ROAD AND
RADIO ROAD


&&

$$

VAUGHAN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181259
SWODY1
SPC AC 181257

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 AM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LOOSELY ORGANIZED WRN U.S. TROUGH...WITH NRN MEMBER REPRESENTED BY
CLOSED LOW ON THE BC-AB BORDER AND SRN MEMBER BY TROUGH OVER
NV...WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH EARLY SAT. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
TROUGH...WEAK FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER TX...THE LWR MS VLY...AND THE
OH VLY...W OF SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE LOW ALONG THE CAROLINA CST.

AT LWR LVLS...MDT LOW LVL SLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE
PLNS E OF A NNE-SSW ORIENTED LEE TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL BE
OVERTAKEN FROM N TO S BY A REJUVENATED COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH
BC/AB UPR SYSTEM...THAT WILL MOVE E/SE ACROSS THE NRN HI PLNS/WRN
DAKOTAS LATER TODAY...AND ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PLNS AND
THE ERN DAKOTAS TNGT/EARLY SAT. THE LEE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL
SERVE TO FOCUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN AND EVE. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD BE STRONG TO SVR...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE
DAKOTAS. MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND MODEST DEEP SHEAR
WILL...HOWEVER...LIKELY LIMIT THE INTENSITY...DURATION...AND
COVERAGE OF SVR WEATHER.

...DAKOTAS INTO NRN MN THIS AFTN THROUGH TNGT...
CURRENT RAOBS...SFC OBS...AND BLENDED PW DATA SUGGEST THAT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIMITED OVER THE NRN PLNS/UPR
MS VLY THIS PERIOD...WITH AVERAGE SFC DEWPOINTS THIS AFTN AND EVE
EXPECTED TO BE AOB THE MID 50S F IN WELL-MIXED AREAS AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT/LEE TROUGH. POCKETS OF HIGHER DEW POINTS MAY EXIST ALONG WARM
FRONT IN NRN MN...BUT THESE LIKELY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LESS
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT.

WHILE SPARSE MOISTURE WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY...COMBINATION OF SFC
HEATING...STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES...UPLIFT ALONG COLD FRONT/LEE
TROUGH...AND SLOWLY INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
SHOULD OVERCOME EML CAP AND SUPPORT A BAND OF AFTN/EVE STORMS FROM
WRN SD NNEWD INTO ERN ND. AN ISOLD STORM OR TWO COULD FORM ALONG
LEE TROUGH SEGMENT IN CNTRL SD...AND A FEW STORMS ALSO COULD FORM
ALONG SHALLOW WARM FRONTAL ZONE NOW EVOLVING OVER FAR NRN MN.

GIVEN STRENGTH OF CAP AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...THE MOST
CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS ALONG
AND ATOP ACCELERATING COLD FRONT. THESE COULD YIELD SVR HAIL AND
PERHAPS LOCALLY DMGG WIND INTO THIS EVE AS SBCAPE INCREASES TO AOA
1500 J/KG. A SUPERCELL OR TWO ALSO MAY OCCUR...MOST LIKELY ALONG
LEE TROUGH IN CNTRL SD...AND/OR ALONG WARM FRONT IN NRN MN. THESE
STORMS ALSO COULD PRODUCE SVR HAIL/WIND.

...WY/CNTRL HI PLNS THIS AFTN/EVE...
INVERTED-VEE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SCTD
HIGH-BASED STORMS WITH A RISK FOR DRY MICROBURSTS FROM PARTS OF
WY/CO AND PERHAPS ERN UT NEWD INTO WRN NEB AS SFC HEATING FURTHER
DESTABILIZES REGION OF STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW/ASCENT AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD MERGE INTO SMALL CLUSTERS EARLY
TNGT.

...FAR S FL THIS AFTN...
HIGH LVL WLY JET MAY YIELD AN ENHANCED THE RISK FOR A FEW PULSE
STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS OVER FAR S FL TODAY...WHERE PW WILL BE AOA
1.50 INCHES AND MID LVL TEMPS RELATIVELY COOL /AROUND MINUS 10C AT
500 MB/.

..CORFIDI/COHEN.. 05/18/2012

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181245
SWODY1
SPC AC 181243

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LOOSELY ORGANIZED WRN U.S. TROUGH...WITH NRN MEMBER REPRESENTED BY
CLOSED LOW ON THE BC-AB BORDER AND SRN MEMBER BY TROUGH OVER
NV...WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH EARLY SAT. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
TROUGH...WEAK FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER TX...THE LWR MS VLY...AND THE
OH VLY...W OF SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE LOW ALONG THE CAROLINA CST.

AT LWR LVLS...MDT SLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE PLNS E OF A
NNE-SSW ORIENTED LEE TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL BE OVERTAKEN FROM N TO
S BY A REJUVENATED COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH BC/AB UPR
SYSTEM...THAT WILL MOVE E/SE ACROSS THE NRN HI PLNS/WRN DAKOTAS
LATER TODAY...AND ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PLNS AND THE ERN
DAKOTAS TNGT/EARLY SAT. THE LEE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL SERVE TO
FOCUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN AND EVE. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
COULD BE STRONG TO SVR...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS.
MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND MODEST DEEP SHEAR
WILL...HOWEVER...LIKELY LIMIT THE INTENSITY...DURATION...AND
COVERAGE OF SVR WEATHER.

...DAKOTAS INTO NRN MN THIS AFTN THROUGH TNGT...
CURRENT RAOB...SFC...AND BLENDED PW DATA SUGGEST THAT BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIMITED OVER THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY
THIS PERIOD...WITH AVERAGE SFC DEWPOINTS THIS AFTN AND EVE EXPECTED
TO BE AOB THE MID 50S F IN WELL-MIXED AREAS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/LEE
TROUGH. POCKETS OF HIGHER DEW POINTS MAY EXIST ALONG WARM FRONT IN
NRN MN...BUT THESE LIKELY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LESS DEEPLY
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT.

WHILE SPARSE MOISTURE WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY...COMBINATION OF SFC
HEATING...STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES...UPLIFT ALONG COLD FRONT/LEE
TROUGH...AND SLOWLY INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
SHOULD OVERCOME EML CAP AND SUPPORT A BAND OF AFTN/EVE STORMS FROM
WRN SD NNEWD INTO ERN ND. AN ISOLD STORM OR TWO COULD FORM ALONG
LEE TROUGH SEGMENT IN CNTRL SD...AND A FEW STORMS ALSO COULD FORM
ALONG SHALLOW WARM FRONTAL ZONE NOW EVOLVING OVER FAR NRN MN.

GIVEN STRENGTH OF CAP AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...THE MOST
CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS ALONG
AND ATOP ACCELERATING COLD FRONT. THESE COULD YIELD SVR HAIL AND
PERHAPS LOCALLY DMGG WIND INTO THIS EVE AS SBCAPE INCREASES TO AOA
1500 J/KG. A SUPERCELL OR TWO ALSO MAY OCCUR...MOST LIKELY ALONG
LEE TROUGH IN CNTRL SD...AND/OR ALONG WARM FRONT IN NRN MN. THESE
STORMS ALSO COULD PRODUCE SVR HAIL/WIND.

...CO/SRN WY/CNTRL HI PLNS THIS AFTN/EVE...
INVERTED-VEE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SCTD
HIGH-BASED STORMS WITH A RISK FOR DRY MICROBURSTS FROM PARTS OF
WY/CO AND PERHAPS ERN UT NEWD INTO WRN NEB AS SFC HEATING FURTHER
DESTABILIZES REGION OF STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW/ASCENT AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD MERGE INTO SMALL CLUSTERS EARLY
TNGT.

...FAR S FL THIS AFTN...
HIGH LVL WLY JET MAY YIELD AN ENHANCED RISK FOR A FEW PULSE
STORMS/MULTICELLS WITH STRONG WINDS OVER FAR S FL TODAY...WHERE PW
WILL BE AOA 1.50 INCHES AND MID LVL TEMPS RELATIVELY COOL /AROUND
MINUS 10C AT 500 MB/.

..CORFIDI/COHEN.. 05/18/2012

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KJAX [181239]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 181239
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
839 AM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM TSTM WND GST 4 W MAYPORT 30.39N 81.48W
05/17/2012 M46.00 MPH DUVAL FL MESONET

A MESONET SITE NEAR THE ST JOHNS RIVER MEASURED A GUST
FROM THE NORTH AT 40 KNOTS OR 46 MPH.

0605 PM TSTM WND GST MAYPORT 30.38N 81.41W
05/17/2012 M39.00 MPH DUVAL FL OTHER FEDERAL

THE NOS TIDE GAUGE AT THE MAYPORT BAR PILOT DOCK MEASURED
A GUST TO 34 KNOTS OR 39 MPH.

0625 PM TSTM WND GST 1 N JACKSONVILLE BEACH 30.29N 81.39W
05/17/2012 M39.00 MPH DUVAL FL MESONET

A MESONET SITE ON THE JACKSONVILLE BEACH PIER MEASURED A
NORTH WIND GUST TO 34 KNOTS OR 39 MPH.


&&

$$

ARS

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 180826
SWOD48
SPC AC 180826

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0326 AM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE SCALE FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN DECIDEDLY HOSTILE FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
LINGERING ERN U.S. TROUGH LIMITS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FROM RETURNING
INLAND. BY MID WEEK THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH EJECTING SHORT
WAVES INTO THE PLAINS THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD OTHERWISE SUPPORT
SEVERE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE
EVOLVING PATTERN LATE IN THE PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 05/18/2012

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KRNK [180715]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KRNK 180715
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
315 AM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0440 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 S RUPERT 37.88N 80.70W
05/17/2012 GREENBRIER WV POST OFFICE

CALLAHAN BRANCH OUT OF BANKS FLOODING METHODIST BRANCH RD


0810 PM HAIL 4 NNW WYTHEVILLE 37.00N 81.11W
05/17/2012 E0.88 INCH WYTHE VA TRAINED SPOTTER

0910 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 SSW WYTHEVILLE 36.93N 81.09W
05/17/2012 WYTHE VA LAW ENFORCEMENT

REED CREEK FLOODED ROAD NEAR WATER TREATMENT PLANT

0910 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 SSW WYTHEVILLE 36.90N 81.11W
05/17/2012 WYTHE VA EMERGENCY MNGR

REED CREEK FLOODED HWY 21S. FLOODING ALSO DAMAGED ONE
HOUSE

0910 PM FLASH FLOOD WYTHEVILLE 36.95N 81.08W
05/17/2012 WYTHE VA EMERGENCY MNGR

TRIBUTARY OF REED CREEK FLOODED 4TH STREET NEAR SPRING
STREET

0910 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 SSW WYTHEVILLE 36.91N 81.12W
05/17/2012 WYTHE VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

REED CREEK FLOODED ROADS NEAR INTERSECTION OF HIGH BRIDGE
ROAD AND ROUTE 684

1000 PM FLASH FLOOD WYTHEVILLE 36.95N 81.08W
05/17/2012 WYTHE VA 911 CALL CENTER

AT LEAST FOUR HOMES IMPACTED BY FLASH FLOODING ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF WYTHEVILLE, GENERALLY ALONG AND NEAR REED
CREEK AND GREASY CREEK. BASEMENT WALL COLLAPSED AT ONE
HOME ON POMPHOLLOW ROAD, WATER FROM REED CREEK FLOWING
THROUGH HOME AT 1508 GRAYSON TURNPIKE, FLOODED YARD AND
GARAGE AT 2147 GREASY CREEK ROAD. ANOTHER HOME FLOODED IN
SPEEDWELL. GALLILEE CHURCH ROAD AND CINNAMON RUN ROAD
FLOODED AT TIMES. SOME STREETS ALSO FLOODED IN
WYTHEVILLE.


&&

$$

RAB

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 180701
SWODY3
SPC AC 180700

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 AM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...IL TO NWRN TX...

LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF EJECTING TROUGH DURING THE DAY2/3 TIME FRAME. WITH
UPPER TROUGHING EXPECTED TO HOLD FIRM ACROSS THE SERN U.S...UPSTREAM
FEATURE SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN SEWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION LATE
WITH A BAND OF MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS
THE FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THIS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH
STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER INSTABILITY FROM PORTIONS
OF NWRN TX INTO ERN OK. OTHERWISE...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HIGHER
MOISTURE WILL EXTEND THE LENGTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM NWRN TX
THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

MODELS AGREE THAT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PROVE GENERALLY WEAK
ALONG THE ADVANCING WIND SHIFT AND BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD
PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY FROM IL SWWD INTO NWRN TX. THIS PORTION OF THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD EXPERIENCE THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIALLY
PRODUCE THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS. FOR THIS REASON HAVE
OPTED TO ADD 5% SEVERE PROBS FOR TSTMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR THE
COLD FRONT WHERE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SEEM SUPPORTIVE OF
MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS AT BEST. ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WOULD BE
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT THREATS IF ROBUST CONVECTION CAN BECOME
ESTABLISHED DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME.

..DARROW.. 05/18/2012

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 180532
SWODY2
SPC AC 180531

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 AM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SRN PLAINS...

...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...

WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE DAY2
PERIOD AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM CO/NM INTO NEB/KS/WRN OK
BY 20/00Z. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EAST SFC PRESSURE WILL RISE IN
THE LEE OF THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES FORCING A COLD FRONT TO A POSITION
FROM NRN MN...SWWD ACROSS SERN NEB INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY PEAK
HEATING. VERY WARM EML WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SLGT RISK REGION
EARLY SATURDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WITHIN THE
ELONGATED WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE CAP IT APPEARS SFC TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO WARM
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70.
EVEN SO...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST INTENSE BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS KS/NWRN OK/TX
PANHANDLE. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE CAP AND COMBINED WITH FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG/JUST
BEHIND THE ADVANCING WIND SHIFT TOWARD EARLY EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL
UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW SUPERCELLS. LATEST DATA ALSO
SUGGESTS A CONCENTRATION OF POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY BE NOTED DUE
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG WARM SECTOR CAP. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT EXTENDING TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER WHERE WEAKER INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT SOMEWHAT.
GIVEN THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER INSTABILITY MAY BE
RESERVED TO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS IT APPEARS THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THESE AREAS.
WARM ADVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD ENHANCE THE
LONGEVITY OF THIS CONVECTION AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE.


...ELSEWHERE...

SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL BE NOTED ALONG THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC/SERN U.S. COAST. WITH SFC RIDGING EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS IT APPEARS THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION WILL OCCUR NEAR THE NC COAST AND ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA. VERY ISOLATED TSTMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE
HEAT OF THE DAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF STATES
BUT WITH LIMITED FORCING AND THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE THIS WILL PROVE QUITE SPARSE AND LIKELY WEAK.

..DARROW.. 05/18/2012

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