MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0681

ACUS11 KWNS 220338
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220338
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-220545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0681
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1038 PM CDT MON APR 21 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN KS...NWRN MO....N-CENTRAL/NERN OK.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 211...

VALID 220338Z - 220545Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 211
CONTINUES.

SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONTAL ZONE FROM NEAR
DSM...10 S STJ...TOP...15 NW EMP...PNC THEN SWWD TO NEAR CSM. MOST
OF OK SEGMENT OF FRONT IS QUASISTATIONARY BUT MAY BEGIN TO DRIFT SWD
AGAIN OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH CYCLOGENESIS FCST S OF CURRENT
FRONTAL POSITION OVER S-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE. PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE
LINE STILL IS EVIDENT FROM FRONTAL INTERSECTION IN CHASE COUNTY
KS...SWD TO NWRN OSAGE COUNTY OK.

PAIR OF LEFT-/RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED INVOF KS/OK
BORDER..WITH RIGHTWARD DEVIANT MEMBER MOVING EWD ALONG KS/OK LINE AS
OF 3Z. FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS
REGION...WITH STRENGTHENING LLJ CONTRIBUTING TO 0-1 KM SRH 150-300
J/KG DERIVED FROM MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS...VWP AND HKL PROFILER.
LEFT MOVER WILL CONTINUE TO POSE HAIL THREAT AS IT MOVES NEWD TOWARD
SRN GREENWOOD COUNTY...BUT MAY WEAKEN/DISSIPATE SOON AMIDST
STRENGTHENING SBCINH. INITIAL CONVECTIVE ATTEMPTS OVER NERN KS --
NEAR ERN PORTION FLINT HILLS....WERE STRONGLY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL SFC
HEATING AS WELL AS SOME APPARENT CONVERGENCE INVOF CONFLUENCE LINE.
SBCINH IS STRENGTHENING OVER THIS REGION AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO
SO AS BOUNDARY LAYER DIABATICALLY COOLS. IR CLOUD TRENDS INDICATE
NO GROWING/DEEPENING CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...THOUGH
COOLING CLOUD TOPS BEHIND FRONT OVER MORRIS/CHASE/GEARY COUNTIES MAY
WARRANT SCRUTINY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. IF ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
DOES NOT DEVELOP WITHIN ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS...PORTIONS WW MAY BE
CANCELED...ESPECIALLY BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT.

..EDWARDS.. 04/22/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...

36209606 36179811 36999816 37009782 38149762 38179736
38509732 38689669 39479687 39449607 39929617 39969526
40399561 40029419 39439423 39469460 39149458 38999501
37069511 36959582

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0680

ACUS11 KWNS 220329
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220329
OKZ000-220500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0680
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 PM CDT MON APR 21 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 212...

VALID 220329Z - 220500Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 212 CONTINUES.

SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM NEAR
PNC SWWD TO NEAR CSM THEN WWD GENERALLY ALONG I-40 INTO TX
PANHANDLE. WRN OK SFC LOW IS DISSIPATING...BUT MAY REDEVELOP/BLEND
WITH LEE-SIDE CYCLONE OVER SRN TX PANHANDLE LATER
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN RESUMPTION OF SWD DRIFT OF FRONTAL ZONE.
MEANWHILE...DRYLINE CONTINUES TO RETREAT WWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL AND
SWRN OK...WITH DEW POINTS RISING AT FSI/LTS.

INITIAL PAIR OF LEFT-/RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS HAS DISSIPATED AMIDST
STRENGTHENING SBCINH...AND IR CLOUD TRENDS INDICATE NO OTHER AREAS
OF GROWING/DEEPENING CONVECTION ATTM. FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WILL
CONTINUE...WITH STRENGTHENING LLJ CONTRIBUTING TO 0-1 KM SRH 150-300
J/KG DERIVED FROM MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS AND VWP. AS CAPPING
CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS...SO
DOES CONVERGENCE REQUIRED TO OVERCOME IT...WHICH WOULD REFOCUS ANY
REMAINING DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL WWD TOWARD FRONTAL ZONE...SFC LOW
AND DRYLINE. RETREATING NOCTURNAL DRYLINES WITH WEAK SFC WINDS...IN
SITUATIONS OF DIABATICALLY STRENGTHENING SBCINH...TYPICALLY RESULT
IN DECREASING CONVECTIVE INITIATION PROBABILITIES WITH TIME. IF
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DOES NOT DEVELOP WITHIN ANOTHER 1-2
HOURS...PORTIONS WW MAY BE CANCELED.

..EDWARDS.. 04/22/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

34119767 36029774 36349652 35489596 34159636

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KOUN [220308]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 220308
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1008 PM CDT MON APR 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0925 PM HAIL 7 SW SHAWNEE 35.26N 97.00W
04/21/2008 E0.75 INCH POTTAWATOMIE OK PUBLIC

&&

$$

DW

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KILM [220301]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 220301
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1101 PM EDT MON APR 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM WILDFIRE 4 N ATKINSON 34.59N 78.17W
04/19/2008 PENDER NC PARK/FOREST SRVC

FIRE BROKE CONTAINMENT NEAR SHILOH ROAD WEST OF HIGHWAY
421 ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY GREW TO 300
ACRES...EVENTUALLY CONSUMED 1500 ACRES. ACREAGE INCLUDES
200 ACRES IN SAMPSON COUNTY. NCFS REPORTED MONDAY THAT
THE FIRE IS 50 PERCENT CONTAINED.

&&

$$

RAS

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KOUN [220241]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 220241
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
941 PM CDT MON APR 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0849 PM HAIL SLAUGHTERVILLE 35.10N 97.28W
04/21/2008 E1.75 INCH CLEVELAND OK PUBLIC

&&

$$

DW

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KAKQ [220239]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary (corrected)

NWUS51 KAKQ 220239
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY (CORRECTED)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1037 PM EDT MON APR 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0336 PM TORNADO 2 E BOTTOMS BRIDGE 37.51N 77.16W
04/20/2008 F0 NEW KENT VA NWS STORM SURVEY

ALUMINUM SIDING BLOWN 100-200 FT FROM A BARN IN THE 1900
BLOCK OF QUAKER ROAD. TORNADO PATH LENGTH ESTIMATED AT
300 FT...WIDTH AT 50 FT. TOP WINDS WERE ESTIMATED BETWEEN
70-80 MPH.

0345 PM TORNADO 2 W WESTWOOD 37.60N 77.21W
04/20/2008 F0 HANOVER VA NWS STORM SURVEY

BROKEN PATH OF EF0 TORNADO DAMAGE...ROUGHLY 4 MILES IN
LENGTH...IN EASTERN HANOVER COUNTY...ABOUT 7 MILES EAST
OF MECHANICSVILLE. DAMAGE MOST EXTENSIVE ALONG MCCLELLON
ROAD...BETWEEN WESTWOOD ROAD AND PARSLEYS MILL ROAD.
SECTION OF ROOF PARTIALLY TORN OFF OF HOME AND BLOWN
100-150 YARDS. SHED DESTROYED. NUMEROUS TREES SNAPPED OR
BLOWN DOWN. TOP WINDS ESTIMATED AT 80-85 MPH.

0358 PM TORNADO 2 S ENFIELD 37.72N 77.22W
04/20/2008 F0 KING WILLIAM VA PUBLIC

BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN ABOUT 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MECHANICSVILLE. BARN DAMAGED AND MULTIPLE TREES DOWN.
DAMAGE RATED AS EF0.

0413 PM TSTM WND DMG DAWN 37.83N 77.37W
04/20/2008 CAROLINE VA PUBLIC

TREES DOWN

0430 PM TSTM WND DMG MILFORD 38.03N 77.37W
04/20/2008 CAROLINE VA PUBLIC

TREES DOWN

0430 PM TORNADO 1 W SPARTA 37.99N 77.25W
04/20/2008 F0 CAROLINE VA NWS STORM SURVEY

BARN DAMAGE WITH MULTIPLE TREES DOWN. DAMAGE RATED AS EF0.

0625 PM TORNADO 2 S CENTRAL GARAGE 37.72N 77.13W
04/20/2008 F0 KING WILLIAM VA NWS STORM SURVEY

BRIEF EF0 TOUCHDOWN...WITH NUMEROUS EYEWITNESS REPORTS
FROM THE PUBLIC. SEVERAL UTILITY TRAILERS DAMAGED AND
MULTIPLE TREES DOWN.

0628 PM TORNADO 1 W CENTRAL GARAGE 37.74N 77.15W
04/20/2008 F0 KING WILLIAM VA NWS STORM SURVEY

BRIEF EF0 TORNADO TOUCHDOWN WITH ONE HOUSE DAMAGED AND
MULTIPLE TREES DOWN. BARN SLIGHTLY SHIFTED OFF
FOUNDATION.

0705 PM TORNADO 6 SSE LEWISTON WOODVILL 36.03N 77.14W
04/20/2008 F0 BERTIE NC NWS STORM SURVEY

BRIEF EF0 TORNADO TOUCHDOWN OFF OF BILLIES CLUB ROAD.
DAMAGE PATH AND WIDTH ESTIMATED AT 40 YARDS...WITH
NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES IN SWAMP.

&&

$$

BHURLEY

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KOUN [220235]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 220235
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
935 PM CDT MON APR 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 PM HAIL PAOLI 34.83N 97.26W
04/21/2008 E1.00 INCH GARVIN OK PUBLIC

NICKEL TO QUARTER HAIL IN TOWN

&&

$$

DW

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KOUN [220216]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 220216
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
916 PM CDT MON APR 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0852 PM HAIL 8 E NOBLE 35.14N 97.25W
04/21/2008 E0.75 INCH CLEVELAND OK PUBLIC

DIME TO PENNY HAIL

&&

$$

DW

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 212

WWUS20 KWNS 220157
SEL2
SPC WW 220157
OKZ000-220700-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 212
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
900 PM CDT MON APR 21 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 900 PM UNTIL
200 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH OF CHANDLER
OKLAHOMA TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF ARDMORE OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 211...

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TSTM IN SW OK THAT FORMED EARLIER THIS EVENING
ALONG MERGING PREFRONTAL BOUNDARIES APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME A
SUSTAINED SUPERCELL. GIVEN INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT... POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHT NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN THE SLY
LLJ...AND GRAZING INFLUENCE OF ERN CO/WRN KS UPR TROUGH...THREAT
WILL EXIST FOR A TORNADO OR TWO IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY DMGG WIND.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26020.

...CORFIDI

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KOUN [220138]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 220138
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
838 PM CDT MON APR 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0838 PM HAIL MAYSVILLE 34.82N 97.41W
04/21/2008 E1.75 INCH GARVIN OK NWS EMPLOYEE

QUARTERS TO GOLFBALL HAIL

&&

$$

DW

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KOUN [220131]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 220131
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
831 PM CDT MON APR 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0829 PM HAIL 3 E LINDSAY 34.84N 97.56W
04/21/2008 E0.88 INCH GARVIN OK NWS EMPLOYEE

0830 PM HAIL 1 N MAYSVILLE 34.83N 97.41W
04/21/2008 E1.75 INCH GARVIN OK TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

DW

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KMHX [211847]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 211847
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
247 PM EDT MON APR 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0243 PM HAIL POLLOCKSVILLE 35.01N 77.22W
04/21/2008 E1.75 INCH JONES NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

FROM POLLOCKSVILLE NORTH TO CRAVEN CNTY LINE. DANGEROUS
ROAD CONDITIONS AS RESULT OF ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

$$

JSCHULZ

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KMHX [211847]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 211847
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
246 PM EDT MON APR 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0244 PM HAIL POLLOCKSVILLE 35.01N 77.22W
04/21/2008 E1.75 INCH JONES NC COUNTY OFFICIAL

GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL COVERING THE ROADS FROM POLLOCKSVILLE
TO THE CRAVEN COUNTY LINE.

&&

$$

SJAMISON

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KMHX [211842]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 211842
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
242 PM EDT MON APR 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0239 PM HAIL POLLOCKSVILLE 35.01N 77.22W
04/21/2008 E1.00 INCH JONES NC FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

HAIL COVERING THE GROUND AROUND ISLAND CREEK ROAD

&&

$$

SJAMISON

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KAKQ [211837]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KAKQ 211837
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
237 PM EDT MON APR 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0336 PM TORNADO 2 E BOTTOMS BRIDGE 37.51N 77.16W
04/20/2008 F0 NEW KENT VA NWS STORM SURVEY

ALUMINUM SIDING BLOWN 100-200 FT FROM A BARN IN THE 1900
BLOCK OF QUAKER ROAD. TORNADO PATH LENGTH ESTIMATED AT
300 FT...WIDTH AT 50 FT. TOP WINDS WERE ESTIMATED BETWEEN
70-80 MPH.

0345 PM TORNADO 2 W WESTWOOD 37.60N 77.21W
04/20/2008 F0 HANOVER VA NWS STORM SURVEY

BROKEN PATH OF EF0 TORNADO DAMAGE...ROUGHLY 4 MILES IN
LENGTH...IN EASTERN HANOVER COUNTY...ABOUT 7 MILES EAST
OF MECHANICSVILLE. DAMAGE MOST EXTENSIVE ALONG MCCLELLON
ROAD...BETWEEN WESTWOOD ROAD AND PARSLEYS MILL ROAD.
SECTION OF ROOF PARTIALLY TORN OFF OF HOME AND BLOWN
100-150 YARDS. SHED DESTROYED. NUMEROUS TREES SNAPPED OR
BLOWN DOWN. TOP WINDS ESTIMATED AT 80-85 MPH.

0358 PM TORNADO 2 S ENFIELD 37.72N 77.22W
04/20/2008 F0 KING WILLIAM VA PUBLIC

BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN ABOUT 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MECHANICSVILLE. BARN DAMAGED AND MULTIPLE TREES DOWN.
DAMAGE RATED AS EF0.

0413 PM TSTM WND DMG DAWN 37.83N 77.37W
04/20/2008 CAROLINE VA PUBLIC

TREES DOWN

0430 PM TSTM WND DMG MILFORD 38.03N 77.37W
04/20/2008 CAROLINE VA PUBLIC

TREES DOWN

0445 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 W SPARTA 37.99N 77.25W
04/20/2008 CAROLINE VA PUBLIC

BARN DAMAGE WITH MULTIPLE TREES DOWN. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

0625 PM TORNADO 2 S CENTRAL GARAGE 37.72N 77.13W
04/20/2008 F0 KING WILLIAM VA NWS STORM SURVEY

BRIEF EF0 TOUCHDOWN...WITH NUMEROUS EYEWITNESS REPORTS
FROM THE PUBLIC. SEVERAL UTILITY TRAILERS DAMAGED AND
MULTIPLE TREES DOWN.

0628 PM TORNADO 1 W CENTRAL GARAGE 37.74N 77.15W
04/20/2008 F0 KING WILLIAM VA NWS STORM SURVEY

BRIEF EF0 TORNADO TOUCHDOWN WITH ONE HOUSE DAMAGED AND
MULTIPLE TREES DOWN. BARN SLIGHTLY SHIFTED OFF
FOUNDATION.

0705 PM TORNADO 6 SSE LEWISTON WOODVILL 36.03N 77.14W
04/20/2008 F0 BERTIE NC NWS STORM SURVEY

BRIEF EF0 TORNADO TOUCHDOWN OFF OF BILLIES CLUB ROAD.
DAMAGE PATH AND WIDTH ESTIMATED AT 40 YARDS...WITH
NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES IN SWAMP.

&&

$$

BHURLEY

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KMHX [211820]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 211820
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
220 PM EDT MON APR 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0210 PM HAIL SWANSBORO 34.69N 77.13W
04/21/2008 E1.50 INCH ONSLOW NC PUBLIC

&&

$$

CQUELL

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KMHX [211816]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 211816
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
216 PM EDT MON APR 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0204 PM HAIL SWANSBORO 34.69N 77.13W
04/21/2008 E1.00 INCH ONSLOW NC PUBLIC

&&

$$

JSCHULZ

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KAKQ [211816]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KAKQ 211816
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
216 PM EDT MON APR 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0336 PM TORNADO 2 E BOTTOMS BRIDGE 37.51N 77.16W
04/20/2008 F0 NEW KENT VA NWS STORM SURVEY

ALUMINUM SIDING BLOWN 100-200 FT FROM A BARN IN THE 1900
BLOCK OF QUAKER ROAD. TORNADO PATH LENGTH ESTIMATED AT
300 FT...WIDTH AT 50 FT. TOP WINDS WERE ESTIMATED BETWEEN
70-80 MPH.

0345 PM TORNADO 2 W WESTWOOD 37.60N 77.21W
04/20/2008 F0 HANOVER VA NWS STORM SURVEY

FOUR MILE BROKEN PATH OF EF0 TORNADO DAMAGE IN EASTERN
HANOVER COUNTY...ABOUT 7 MILES EAST OF MECHANICSVILLE.
DAMAGE MOST EXTENSIVE ALONG MCCLELLON ROAD...BETWEEN
WESTWOOD ROAD AND PARSLEYS MILL ROAD. SECTION OF ROOF
PARTIALLY TORN OFF OF HOME AND BLOWN 100-150 YARDS. SHED
DESTROYED. NUMEROUS TREES SNAPPED OR BLOWN DOWN. TOP
WINDS ESTIMATED AT 80-85 MPH.

0705 PM TORNADO 6 SSE LEWISTON WOODVILL 36.03N 77.14W
04/20/2008 F0 BERTIE NC NWS STORM SURVEY

BRIEF EF0 TORNADO TOUCHDOWN OFF OF BILLIES CLUB ROAD.
DAMAGE PATH AND WIDTH ESTIMATED AT 40 YARDS...WITH
NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES IN SWAMP.

&&

$$

BHURLEY

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KMHX [211815]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 211815
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
215 PM EDT MON APR 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0212 PM HAIL SWANSBORO 34.69N 77.13W
04/21/2008 E1.00 INCH ONSLOW NC PUBLIC

&&

$$

JSCHULZ

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KMHX [211814]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 211814
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
214 PM EDT MON APR 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0210 PM HAIL BRIDGETON 35.12N 77.02W
04/21/2008 E0.75 INCH CRAVEN NC PUBLIC

&&

$$

CQUELL

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KMHX [211740]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 211740
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
140 PM EDT MON APR 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0115 PM HAIL W NEWPORT 34.79N 76.86W
04/21/2008 E0.88 INCH CARTERET NC PUBLIC

&&

$$

SJAMISON

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 211722
SWODY2
SPC AC 211720

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT MON APR 21 2008

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NWRN/CENTRAL
TX INTO WRN LA...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT FROM TX INTO
THE OH RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER NC WILL
BEGIN SHIFTING SEWD OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT IS FORECAST TO DAMPEN-OUT AS IT SHIFTS SEWD ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE COLD
FRONT WELL-DEFINED OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO ERN KS EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD...BUT IS
FORECAST TO STALL AND LOSE DEFINITION TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL MASS
FIELDS RESPOND TO STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE WRN U.S. LATE IN
THE PERIOD.

...MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/ERN TX...
CLUSTERS OF STRONG...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING
OVER PORTIONS OF MO/AR/ERN OK AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD NEAR
SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED...ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL COLD AIR/LAPSE RATES SHOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST A THREAT OF HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CORES. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING ON THE NRN END.
HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY/DEVELOP INTO MUCH OF LA/ERN TX
THROUGH THE DAY AS WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE DIGS SEWD OVER THE REGION.
MID LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN MODEST...THOUGH SHEAR
PARAMETERS WILL BE BOOSTED BY NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADING SSELY
SURFACE WINDS WITH 25-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FORECAST BY MOST MODEL
SOUNDINGS. IN ADDITION...-12C TO -14C H5 TEMPS WILL EXIST ATOP VERY
RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS/ AND
SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE HEATING CAN BE MAXIMIZED. EXPECT
STORMS WILL INCREASE INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH THREATS OF LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH THESE WEAKLY-ORGANIZED STORMS.
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

...CENTRAL/NWRN TX...
MIXING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH DRY LINE EWD INTO
NWRN TX TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE TRIPLE POINT MAY SETUP WNW OF ABI
ALONG STALLED SURFACE COLD FRONT. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
MODEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT STILL SUPPORTIVE OF 35-45 KT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ATOP ELY SURFACE FLOW. MODELS SEEM CONSISTENT IN
WEAKENING/BREAKING CAP AMONGST STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AOA 2000 J
PER KG/ AND EXPECT A FEW ROBUST STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION
LATE IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS/SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE
WEAK...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH H5 TEMPS FROM -12C TO -14C AND
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WILL ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. WITH INCREASING SLY LLJ
OVER WRN TX AFTER DARK...A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
HAIL MAY ALSO INCREASE FARTHER W-NW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

..EVANS.. 04/21/2008

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KSEW [211703]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 211703
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1003 AM PDT MON APR 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1002 AM HAIL 4 NNW EATONVILLE 46.93N 122.30W
04/21/2008 M0.25 INCH PIERCE WA TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

DDAMICO

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0677

ACUS11 KWNS 211654
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211654
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-211900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0677
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 AM CDT MON APR 21 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN MN...EXTREME ERN SD...NE NEB/NW IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 211654Z - 211900Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE SOME COULD CONTAIN HAIL...THE
SEVERE THREAT GENERALLY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT TO
REQUIRE A WW. BUT...TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WELL OUT IN ADVANCE OF STRONGER MID/UPPER
COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE-SCALE NORTHWESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW.
HOWEVER...THE LEADING EDGE OF A WEAK INITIAL MID-LEVEL COOL SURGE
HAS SPREAD THROUGH MUCH OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. WHILE THIS APPEARS
TO LAG THE SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT...FORCING IS PROVIDING THE FOCUS
FOR ONGOING POST-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NOW SLOWLY SPREADING
IN A BAND EAST OF THE NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER.

ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION...MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THE AXIS OF A
NARROW LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL RIDGE IS CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK
TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS NOW
DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTH DAKOTA/
MINNESOTA BORDER AREA. THIS IS BENEATH STEEPEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT FORCING WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
18-21Z TIME FRAME.

LATEST RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT INSTABILITY FOR LIFTED PARCELS
BASED AROUND THE 700 MB LEVEL COULD REACH 1000-1500 J/KG...
SUFFICIENT FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL. MODEST
CLOUD BEARING LAYER SHEAR PROBABLY WILL MINIMIZE MAXIMUM HAIL
SIZES...BUT GENERALLY SHORT-LIVED ROTATING UPDRAFTS COULD BECOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME HAIL APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING
SEVERE LIMITS.

..KERR.. 04/21/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...

44819691 45599683 45809598 44799534 43529510 42249530
41999613 42229674 43419694

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KEWX [211649]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 211649
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1149 AM CDT MON APR 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 PM HAIL 2 WNW COMSTOCK 29.70N 101.19W
04/17/2008 E0.88 INCH VAL VERDE TX PUBLIC

0940 PM HAIL 13 ESE COMSTOCK 29.58N 100.98W
04/17/2008 E1.00 INCH VAL VERDE TX PUBLIC

QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED NEAR THE ROUGH CANYON
MARINA.

0940 PM HAIL 12 NNW KERR WILDLIFE MG 30.24N 99.59W
04/17/2008 E1.00 INCH KERR TX PUBLIC

QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED ON THE RIO BONITO RANCH.

0945 PM HAIL 5 SSE ROCKSPRINGS 29.95N 100.18W
04/17/2008 E0.75 INCH EDWARDS TX PUBLIC

PENNY SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED AT THE BALL RANCH.

1032 PM HAIL 4 WNW MONTELL 29.56N 100.08W
04/17/2008 E0.75 INCH UVALDE TX PUBLIC

PENNY SIZE HAIL COVERED THE GROUND AT RESIDENCE OFF OF
COUNTY ROAD 415.

1140 PM HAIL 6 WNW COMETA 28.71N 100.10W
04/17/2008 E0.88 INCH ZAVALA TX PUBLIC

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED ON THE DOUBLE DIME RANCH.

&&

$$

YUREWX

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KCTP [211641]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCTP 211641
LSRCTP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1240 PM EDT MON APR 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM FLASH FLOOD HANOVER 39.81N 76.98W
04/20/2008 YORK PA EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL ROAD CLOSURES DUE TO FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN

YORK COUNTY. REPORTS OF A MUDSLIDE AND SINNKHOLE AS WELL.

0603 PM FLASH FLOOD ABBOTTSTOWN 39.88N 76.99W
04/20/2008 ADAMS PA EMERGENCY MNGR

FLOODING ACROSS ABBOTTSTOWN PIKE.

&&

$$

CJE

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KAKQ [211640]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KAKQ 211640
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1239 PM EDT MON APR 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0336 PM TORNADO 2 E BOTTOMS BRIDGE 37.51N 77.16W
04/20/2008 F0 NEW KENT VA PUBLIC

ALUMINUM SIDING BLOWN 100-200 FT FROM A BARN IN THE 1900
BLOCK OF QUAKER ROAD. TORNADO PATH LENGTH ESTIMATED AT
300 FT...WIDTH AT 50 FT. TOP WINDS WERE ESTIMATED BETWEEN
70-80 MPH.

&&

$$

BHURLEY

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 211627
SWODY1
SPC AC 211624

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CDT MON APR 21 2008

VALID 211630Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF OK...KS AND MO...

...SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION...

LARGE SCALE ADJUSTMENTS UNDERWAY WITH COLD WRN TROUGH AS ONE STRONG
CIRCULATION CENTER SHIFTS NWD THRU SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WHILE
ANOTHER LOW CENTER DROPS SWD OFFSHORE PAC NW. COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
EWD ACROSS HIGH PLAINS AND SWWD INTO NWRN OK/TX PANHANDLE.

WHILE A SHALLOW BUT VERY MOIST AIR MASS HAS SPREAD NWD THRU TX/OK
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...UPPER SUPPORT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE LIMITED AS FLAT RIDGING DEVELOPS EWD FROM CENTRAL ROCKIES IN
RESPONSE TO THE LARGE SCALE WRN TROUGH READJUSTMENT.

UPPER LOW NOW OVER NC WILL MOVE SEWD OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING WITH
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL GRADUALLY ENDING OVER LAND LATER TODAY.

...OK/KS/MO...
BY MID AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM ERN KS SSWWD THRU
WRN OK TO THE W OF OKC. TRIPLE POINT OF COLD FRONT AND A DRY LINE
WILL BE ACROSS WCENTRAL OK AS N-S DRY LINE MIXES EWD ACROSS SWRN
OK/NWRN TX. STRONG HEATING WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE 80S SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM THE TRIPLE POINT NEWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO ERN KS
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE
WITH MLCAPES AOA 3000 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL OK DURING AFTERNOON. THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND FORECASTED WEAKENING OF LOW LEVEL
FLOW LEADS TO THE CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT OF THE OUTLOOK. ANY
STORM THAT IS ABLE TO FORM WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. GREATEST
SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD BE A STORM THAT DEVELOPS NEAR THE TRIPLE
POINT WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. FURTHER N ALONG THE FRONT
INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS BUT STRONGER FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WOULD BE
MORE LIKELY TO INITIATE STORMS BY THIS EVENING.

30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR GIVEN THE INSTABILITY SUPPORT SUPERCELL
POTENTIAL. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE VERY
UNSTABLE AIR AND RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE EWD AFTER DARK INTO ERN OK NEWD INTO WRN MO AS LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASES TO 30PLUS KTS ENHANCING SHEAR AND NWD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT.

...UPPER MS VALLEY...
WHILE FORCING BOTH FRONTAL AND WITH MID LEVEL JET ROTATING NEWD
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS FROM MN INTO
IA...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE MARGINAL GIVEN THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY. MLCAPES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG COUPLED WITH
FAVORABLY LOW WET BULB ZERO LEVELS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR HAIL
AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. STORMS SHOULD BE FOCUSED VICINITY THE COLD
FRONT.

...ERN NC...
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IS NOW OFFSHORE...BUT GENERALLY LIGHT EAST/
NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MAINTAINING MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE BENEATH A LINGERING MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET OVER EAST CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE UNTIL
ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS A WEAK IMPULSE
PIVOTS AROUND ITS SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY.

DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
INHIBITION FOR MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS IS ALREADY BECOMING
NEGLIGIBLE. AND...WITH FURTHER HEATING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS THRU THE AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH MIXED LAYER CAPE IS EXPECTED MOSTLY ON THE ORDER OF 500
J/KG...LOCALIZED HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE...WITH COOL SOUNDINGS
BENEATH -22C 500 MB COLD CORE SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS.
WEAK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT HAIL SIZE...BUT SOME OF THIS COULD
APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS. GIVEN AT LEAST LIGHT
VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT...AND THE PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE
AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY NEAR THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
CIRCULATION...TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE.
BUT...THIS THREAT APPEARS LOW.

..HALES/HURLBUT.. 04/21/2008

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KSEW [211558]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 211558
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
857 AM PDT MON APR 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0809 AM SNOW 5 NE INDEX 47.87N 121.48W
04/21/2008 M2.5 INCH SNOHOMISH WA TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW FELL MOSTLY OVERNIGHT...AND THEN ENDED SHORTLY AFTER
8 AM THIS MORNING.

&&

$$

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KGGW [211551]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 211551
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
951 AM MDT MON APR 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM SNOW 13 W BRUSETT 47.42N 107.54W
04/20/2008 E3.0 INCH GARFIELD MT CO-OP OBSERVER

0400 PM SNOW 14 NW BRUSETT 47.57N 107.48W
04/20/2008 E3.0 INCH GARFIELD MT CO-OP OBSERVER

0400 PM SNOW HELL CREEK RECREATION A 47.62N 106.89W
04/20/2008 E3.0 INCH GARFIELD MT CO-OP OBSERVER

0400 PM SNOW 2 S JORDAN 47.29N 106.91W
04/20/2008 E1.0 INCH GARFIELD MT CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

DS

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KRAH [211538]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 211538
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1138 AM EDT MON APR 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM HAIL 5 NNE LOCUST 35.33N 80.40W
04/20/2008 E0.75 INCH STANLY NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

GIH

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KTFX [211538]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KTFX 211538
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
937 AM MDT MON APR 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM SNOW 6 SW GREAT FALLS 47.44N 111.38W
04/19/2008 M3.2 INCH CASCADE MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

A TOTAL OF 3 INCHES OF SNOW MEASURED AT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN GREAT FALLS THROUGH
600 PM MDT TODAY.

0718 PM SNOW 9 NE BABB 48.95N 113.30W
04/19/2008 U0.0 INCH GLACIER MT TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES OF ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS MILE
AND TWO-FOOT DRIFTS REPORTED AT PORT OF PIEGAN. SNOWING
SINCE APPROXIMATELY 400 PM MDT.

0830 PM SNOW CONRAD 48.17N 111.95W
04/19/2008 E4.0 INCH PONDERA MT LAW ENFORCEMENT

SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH
VISIBILITIES OF A FEW HUNDRED FEET. SNOWING SINCE
APPROXIMATELY 500 PM MDT.

0830 PM HEAVY SNOW SHELBY 48.51N 111.86W
04/19/2008 E6.0 INCH TOOLE MT LAW ENFORCEMENT

SUSTAINED WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 MPH WITH
VISIBILITIES UNDER ONE QUARTER MILE AND SNOW DRIFTS FROM
8 INCHES TO 1 FOOT. SNOWING SINCE APPROXIMATELY 600 PM
MDT.

0830 PM SNOW CHOTEAU 47.81N 112.18W
04/19/2008 E4.0 INCH TETON MT LAW ENFORCEMENT

SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WITH
VISIBILITIES UNDER ONE QUARTER MILE. WORST CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 400 PM AND 600 PM MDT.

0915 PM SNOW WHITEHALL 45.87N 112.10W
04/19/2008 E5.0 INCH JEFFERSON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

A TOTAL OF 4 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW REPORTED THROUGH 915 PM
MDT...WITH LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING.

1000 PM HEAVY SNOW LINCOLN 46.96N 112.68W
04/19/2008 E10.0 INCH LEWIS AND CLARK MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ESTIMATED 8 TO 10 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN THE LINCOLN AREA.

1200 AM HEAVY SNOW 6 SW GREAT FALLS 47.44N 111.38W
04/20/2008 M6.8 INCH CASCADE MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

6.8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. CURRENT SNOW
DEPTH IS 6 INCHES. LOCATION IS THE NWS OFFICE IN GREAT
FALLS.

0300 AM HEAVY SNOW ULM 47.43N 111.51W
04/20/2008 E12.0 INCH CASCADE MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ESTIMATED 12 INCHES OF NEW SNOW.

0600 AM HEAVY SNOW 6 SW GREAT FALLS 47.44N 111.38W
04/20/2008 M12.6 INCH CASCADE MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

12.6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN GREAT FALLS SINCE NOON ON
SATURDAY. CURRENT SNOW DEPTH IS 11 INCHES. LOCATION IS
THE NWS OFFICE IN GREAT FALLS.

0733 AM HEAVY SNOW 7 N GOLD BUTTE 48.95N 111.37W
04/20/2008 E16.0 INCH TOOLE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 12 TO 16 INCHES...WITH DRIFTS
UP TO 7 FEET. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OCCURRING...WITH
SNOW CONTINUING.

0755 AM HEAVY SNOW HELENA 46.60N 112.02W
04/20/2008 E6.5 INCH LEWIS AND CLARK MT TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6.5 INCHES SINCE 9 PM MDT IN
DOWNTOWN HELENA.

0755 AM HEAVY SNOW CHESTER 48.51N 110.97W
04/20/2008 E10.0 INCH LIBERTY MT LAW ENFORCEMENT

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 10 INCHES THROUGH 755 AM MDT.

0800 AM HEAVY SNOW 19 NNE DUNKIRK 48.73N 111.50W
04/20/2008 E6.0 INCH TOOLE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 INCHES THROUGH 8 AM MDT.

0800 AM HEAVY SNOW 9 NNE ROGERS PASS 47.20N 112.30W
04/20/2008 E8.0 INCH LEWIS AND CLARK MT TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 8 INCHES THROUGH 8 AM
MDT...ELEVATION IS 4200 FEET.

0815 AM HEAVY SNOW 5 S CASCADE 47.20N 111.70W
04/20/2008 E9.0 INCH CASCADE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 9 INCHES THROUGH 815 AM MDT.

0840 AM HEAVY SNOW 3 N GREAT FALLS 47.55N 111.29W
04/20/2008 E12.0 INCH CASCADE MT NWS EMPLOYEE

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 12 INCHES THROUGH 840 AM MDT.

0900 AM HEAVY SNOW HAVRE 48.54N 109.68W
04/20/2008 E6.0 INCH HILL MT TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 INCHES THROUGH 9 AM MDT.

0912 AM SNOW 3 N DILLON 45.26N 112.63W
04/20/2008 E2.0 INCH BEAVERHEAD MT TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 INCHES THROUGH 912 AM MDT.

0925 AM HEAVY SNOW RUSSELL 48.03N 111.00W
04/20/2008 E12.0 INCH CHOUTEAU MT TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 12 INCHES THROUGH 925 AM MDT.

0925 AM HEAVY SNOW 15 W RUSSELL 48.03N 111.33W
04/20/2008 E15.0 INCH CHOUTEAU MT TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 15 INCHES THROUGH 925 AM MDT.

1005 AM HEAVY SNOW 9 N GLEN 45.61N 112.69W
04/20/2008 E12.0 INCH BEAVERHEAD MT TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH 1005 AM MDT OF 12 INCHES.
LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING.

1021 AM HEAVY SNOW 5 N THE KNEES 48.09N 111.28W
04/20/2008 M11.0 INCH CHOUTEAU MT CO-OP OBSERVER

0.81 OF LIQUID

1021 AM HEAVY SNOW 15 NW NORRIS 45.72N 111.91W
04/20/2008 M8.0 INCH MADISON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL.

1038 AM SNOW 13 W WHITEHALL 45.87N 112.37W
04/20/2008 E6.0 INCH JEFFERSON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 INCHES SINCE 9 PM MDT
SATURDAY AT ELEVATION 6200 FEET. STILL SNOWING.

1059 AM HEAVY SNOW 13 SSE ULM 47.26N 111.40W
04/20/2008 M12.0 INCH CASCADE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING ALONG THE SMITH RIVER.

1113 AM HEAVY SNOW 10 E TOWNSEND 46.32N 111.31W
04/20/2008 M6.0 INCH BROADWATER MT CO-OP OBSERVER

THUNDER SNOW WAS OBSERVED OVERNIGHT.

1211 PM HEAVY SNOW 9 S STANFORD 47.02N 110.22W
04/20/2008 E6.0 INCH JUDITH BASIN MT NWS EMPLOYEE

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 INCHES THROUGH 1211 PM MDT.

1224 PM HEAVY SNOW RAYNESFORD 47.27N 110.73W
04/20/2008 E9.0 INCH JUDITH BASIN MT TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH 1224 PM MDT OF 8 TO 9
INCHES.

0200 PM HEAVY SNOW BOULDER 46.24N 112.12W
04/20/2008 E8.0 INCH JEFFERSON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 8 INCHES FROM 11 PM MDT
SATURDAY THROUGH 200 PM MDT SUNDAY.

0418 PM SNOW 13 W WHITEHALL 45.87N 112.37W
04/20/2008 E10.0 INCH JEFFERSON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM 9 PM SATURDAY UNTIL 418 PM
MDT SUNDAY. ELEVATION IS 6200 FEET.

0608 PM HEAVY SNOW 6 SW GREAT FALLS 47.44N 111.38W
04/20/2008 M14.8 INCH CASCADE MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 14.8 INCHES SINCE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT THE NWS OFFICE IN GREAT FALLS.

0800 AM HEAVY SNOW CASCADE 47.27N 111.70W
04/21/2008 E6.0 INCH CASCADE MT CO-OP OBSERVER

RIVER GAUGE READER ON THE MISSOURI RIVER AT THE TOWN OF
CASCADE REPORTED APPROXIMATELY 5-6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
OVER THE WEEKEND. BULK OF THE SNOW MOST LIKELY FELL
SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY MORNING.

&&
A MAJOR WINTER STORM IMPACTED THE WESTERN HALF OF MONTANA THIS
WEEKEND. BANDS OF SNOW AFFECTED PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURRED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
FROM 6 INCHES TO OVER A FOOT. NEAR WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND SNOW
DRIFTS SEVERAL FEET DEEP IN SPOTS WERE REPORTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA DUE TO GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. ABOVE IS A SUMMARY OF
REPORTS RECEIVED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. MOST ACCUMULATIONS LISTED
OCCURRED WITHIN A 12-HOUR PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

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KLWX [211526]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KLWX 211526
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1126 AM EDT MON APR 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1118 AM FLOOD LEESBURG 39.10N 77.56W
04/20/2008 LOUDOUN VA EMERGENCY MNGR

TUSCARORA CREEK OUT OF BANKS CLOSING LAWSON ROAD.

0138 PM HAIL NORRISVILLE 39.70N 76.54W
04/20/2008 E0.75 INCH HARFORD MD EMERGENCY MNGR

0153 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 S WALDORF 38.63N 76.90W
04/20/2008 CHARLES MD TRAINED SPOTTER

THREE TREES DOWN ON ROADWAY AND ONE TREE ON HOUSE
ATLEONARDTOWN ROAD AND RENNER ROAD

0209 PM TORNADO ST CHARLES 38.61N 76.92W
04/20/2008 CHARLES MD EMERGENCY MNGR

EF0 TORNADO AS DETERMINED BY NWS SURVEY OF DAMAGE TO
TOWNHOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS.

0225 PM HAIL BEL AIR 39.53N 76.35W
04/20/2008 E0.75 INCH HARFORD MD TRAINED SPOTTER

0235 PM TSTM WND DMG TEMPLE HILLS 38.82N 76.95W
04/20/2008 PRINCE GEORGES MD FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

SEVERAL LARGE TREES DOWN ON PATS LANE...NEAR ALLENTOWN
ROAD.

0237 PM TORNADO CHILLUM 38.96N 76.99W
04/20/2008 PRINCE GEORGES MD EMERGENCY MNGR

EF1 TORNADO AS DETERMINED BY NWS SITE SURVEY WITH DAMAGE
TO ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AND CONSTRUCTION TRAILER BLOWN OVER.

0242 PM TSTM WND DMG HYATTSVILLE 38.96N 76.95W
04/20/2008 PRINCE GEORGES MD EMERGENCY MNGR

DAMAGE TO G.E. PETERS ADVENTIST SCHOOL ON RIGGS ROAD.

0426 PM FLOOD ANNANDALE 38.83N 77.21W
04/20/2008 FAIRFAX VA EMERGENCY MNGR

ROAD CLOSED AT THE INTERSECTION OF WOODBURN ROAD AND
SPICEWOOD DRIVE

0430 PM FLOOD ARLINGTON 38.88N 77.10W
04/20/2008 ARLINGTON VA EMERGENCY MNGR

REPORT OF FLOODING SOUTHBOUND ON THE GEORGE WASHINGTON
PARKWAY NEAR 14TH STREET BRIDGE

0620 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 N WHITEHOUSE 39.64N 76.78W
04/20/2008 BALTIMORE MD EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE DOWN ON GUNPOWDER ROAD BETWEEN COMPASS RUN LN AND
BECKLEYSVILLE RD.

0910 PM FLOOD LEWISTOWN 39.54N 77.42W
04/20/2008 FREDERICK MD EMERGENCY MNGR

ROADS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

0230 AM FLOOD MOUNT VERNON 38.72N 77.11W
04/21/2008 FAIRFAX VA EMERGENCY MNGR

COLCHESTER ROAD CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

0230 AM FLOOD GLEEDSVILLE 39.05N 77.61W
04/21/2008 LOUDOUN VA EMERGENCY MNGR

HOGBACK MOUNTAIN ROAD CLOSED NEAR ROUTE 15 DUE TO HIGH
WATER. SEVERAL OTHER SCATTERED ROAD CLOSURES AT THIS TIME
COUNTYWIDE.

0600 AM FLOOD 1 NW MARTINSBURG 39.47N 77.98W
04/21/2008 BERKELEY WV EMERGENCY MNGR

EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS A ROAD CLOSURE BETWEEN
TENNESSEE AVE AND MILL RACE RD AT TUSCARORA CREEK.

0600 AM FLOOD E MARTINSBURG 39.46N 77.96W
04/21/2008 BERKELEY WV EMERGENCY MNGR

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS RACE ST CLOSED DUE TO
FLOODING

0830 PM FLOOD 3 N WHITEHOUSE 39.64N 76.78W
04/20/2008 BALTIMORE MD EMERGENCY MNGR

FLOODING REPORTED ON GUNPOWDER RD BETWEEN COMPASS RUN LN
AND BECKLEYSVILLE RD

&&
PRELIMINARY SUMMARY OF STORM REPORTS FOR APRIL 20
$$

SAR

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0676

ACUS11 KWNS 211515
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211514
NCZ000-211715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0676
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 AM CDT MON APR 21 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 211514Z - 211715Z

THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY NEXT FEW
HOURS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS GENERALLY LOW...BUT TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED.

THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IS NOW OFFSHORE...BUT GENERALLY LIGHT EAST/
NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS MAINTAINING MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE BENEATH A LINGERING MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET OVER EAST CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE UNTIL
ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS A WEAK IMPULSE
PIVOTS AROUND ITS SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY.

DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
INHIBITION FOR MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS IS ALREADY BECOMING
NEGLIGIBLE. AND...WITH FURTHER HEATING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS...AS EARLY AS THE 16-18Z TIME
FRAME...MOSTLY EAST/SOUTHEAST OF RALEIGH INTO COASTAL AREAS.

ALTHOUGH MIXED LAYER CAPE IS EXPECTED MOSTLY ON THE ORDER OF 500
J/KG...LOCALIZED HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE...WITH COOL SOUNDINGS
BENEATH -22C 500 MB COLD CORE SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS.
WEAK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT HAIL SIZE...BUT SOME OF THIS COULD
APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS. GIVEN AT LEAST LIGHT
VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT...AND THE PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE
AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY NEAR THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
CIRCULATION...TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE.
BUT...THIS THREAT APPEARS LOW.

..KERR.. 04/21/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

35927910 36337876 36517784 36297661 35437615 34717677
34117774 34607837 35417894

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KMHX [211350]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 211350
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
950 AM EDT MON APR 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0915 PM FLOOD 2 SE ROBERSONVILLE 35.80N 77.23W
04/20/2008 MARTIN NC DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

HIGH WATER ON HIGHWAY 903 OFF LEE HOUSE ROAD. REPORTED BY
HIGHWAY PATROL.

&&

$$

SJAMISON

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KAKQ [211333]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KAKQ 211333
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
933 AM EDT MON APR 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0336 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 E BOTTOMS BRIDGE 37.51N 77.16W
04/20/2008 NEW KENT VA PUBLIC

ROOF BLOWN OFF OF A HOUSE IN THE 1900 BLOCK OF QUAKER
ROAD. POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGE...PENDING NWS SURVEY
RESULTS.

0358 PM TSTM WND DMG 10 NE MECHANICSVILLE 37.73N 77.23W
04/20/2008 KING WILLIAM VA PUBLIC

POSSIBLE TORNADO REPORTED EAST OF MECHANICSVILLE. BARN
DAMAGED AND MULTIPLE TREES DOWN.

0413 PM TSTM WND DMG DAWN 37.83N 77.37W
04/20/2008 CAROLINE VA PUBLIC

TREES DOWN

0430 PM TSTM WND DMG MILFORD 38.03N 77.37W
04/20/2008 CAROLINE VA PUBLIC

TREES DOWN

0445 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 W SPARTA 37.99N 77.25W
04/20/2008 CAROLINE VA PUBLIC

BARN DAMAGE WITH MULTIPLE TREES DOWN. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

0625 PM TORNADO 2 S CENTRAL GARAGE 37.72N 77.13W
04/20/2008 KING WILLIAM VA PUBLIC

POSSIBLE TORNADO SIGHTED. SEVERAL UTILITY TRAILERS
DAMAGED AND MULTIPLE TREES DOWN.

0628 PM TORNADO 1 W CENTRAL GARAGE 37.74N 77.15W
04/20/2008 KING WILLIAM VA PUBLIC

POSSIBLE TORNADO WITH ONE HOUSE DAMAGED AND MULTIPLE
TREES DOWN.

&&

$$

BHURLEY

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KAKQ [211328]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 211328
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
928 AM EDT MON APR 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0336 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 E BOTTOMS BRIDGE 37.51N 77.16W
04/20/2008 NEW KENT VA PUBLIC

ROOF BLOWN OFF OF A HOUSE IN THE 1900 BLOCK OF QUAKER
ROAD. POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGE...PENDING NWS SURVEY
RESULTS.

&&

$$

BHURLEY

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 211250
SWODY1
SPC AC 211247

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT MON APR 21 2008

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF OK...KS...AND
MO...

A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE WESTERN STATES...
WITH SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF TROUGH
INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. ONE SUCH FEATURE IS CURRENTLY
ROTATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND WILL MOVE INTO WEST TX/OK
AND PARTS OF KS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
RAPIDLY RETURNING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE A COLD FRONT
SURGES SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KS AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLE. DESPITE
SEVERAL FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING OVER KS/OK/TX...A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION RESULTS IN A
HIGHLY CONDITIONAL SEVERE OUTLOOK TODAY OVER PARTS OF KS/OK.

...OK...
MORNING SOUNDINGS AT OUN/FWD SHOW A PRONOUNCED CAP THAT IS LIKELY TO
BE MAINTAINED THROUGH TODAY/TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...LIMITED VERTICAL
MIXING MAY HELP DEWPOINTS POOL WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS PARTS OF OK.
THIS WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 3500+ J/KG. PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT COLD FRONT/DRYLINE TRIPLE POINT WILL DEVELOP
OVER NORTHWEST OK AND WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY INITIATION POINT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY EVENING. NAM AND EXPERIMENTAL MESOSCALE
NMM/ARW SOLUTIONS SHOW VERY ISOLATED BUT INTENSE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN THIS AREA. MEANWHILE...ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS INDICATE CAP
WILL REMAIN TOO STRONG AND NO CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN OK. THESE
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND NOTED STRENGTH OF CAP ON MORNING
SOUNDINGS PROVIDE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS OUTLOOK. IF
ISOLATED STORMS CAN DEVELOP NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT...VERTICAL SHEAR
AND CAPE PROFILES ARE CERTAINLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

...KS/MO/AR...
FARTHER NORTH...CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS MORE LIKELY FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHWEST MO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
UPPER FEATURE APPROACHES. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
WEAKER THAN IN OK...BUT WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS MAY
PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT AND DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO AR AS
STRONG THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS.

...UPPER MS VALLEY...
MODELS SUGGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A LEAD MID LEVEL
IMPULSE SPREADING ENEWD ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY COMBINED WITH
FRONTAL CIRCULATION ALONG COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT TSTMS SPREADING
EWD THROUGH ERN DAKOTAS/MN TO WRN WI/WRN U.P. OF MI. EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF 25-30 KT MAY SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT WEAK
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. STORMS
SHOULD BECOME UNDERCUT AS THE COLD FRONT SPREADS EWD...WITH ISOLATED
HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

...ERN NC...
CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NC AT 12Z TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS SEWD TO OFF THE NC/SC COAST BY MID-LATE THIS
EVENING. RESIDUAL SURFACE MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S/
COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING BENEATH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
/-22 C AT 500 MB/ ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY
/MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG/ INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE WEAK ALONG TRACK OF UPPER LOW...STEEP LAPSE RATES/COLD
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED HAIL/WIND
THREATS WITH STRONGEST STORMS.

..HART/GRAMS.. 04/21/2008

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KLWX [211248]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KLWX 211248
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
848 AM EDT MON APR 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1118 AM FLOOD LEESBURG 39.10N 77.56W
04/20/2008 LOUDOUN VA EMERGENCY MNGR

TUSCARORA CREEK OUT OF BANKS CLOSING LAWSON ROAD.

0138 PM HAIL NORRISVILLE 39.70N 76.54W
04/20/2008 E0.75 INCH HARFORD MD EMERGENCY MNGR

0153 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 S WALDORF 38.63N 76.90W
04/20/2008 CHARLES MD TRAINED SPOTTER

THREE TREES DOWN ON ROADWAY AND ONE TREE ON HOUSE
ATLEONARDTOWN ROAD AND RENNER ROAD

0209 PM TORNADO ST CHARLES 38.61N 76.92W
04/20/2008 CHARLES MD EMERGENCY MNGR

EF0 TORNADO AS DETERMINED BY NWS SURVEY OF DAMAGE TO
TOWNHOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS.

0225 PM HAIL BEL AIR 39.53N 76.35W
04/20/2008 E0.75 INCH HARFORD MD TRAINED SPOTTER

0235 PM TSTM WND DMG TEMPLE HILLS 38.82N 76.95W
04/20/2008 PRINCE GEORGES MD FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

SEVERAL LARGE TREES DOWN ON PATS LANE...NEAR ALLENTOWN
ROAD.

0237 PM TORNADO CHILLUM 38.96N 76.99W
04/20/2008 PRINCE GEORGES MD EMERGENCY MNGR

EF1 TORNADO AS DETERMINED BY NWS SITE SURVEY WITH DAMAGE
TO ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AND CONSTRUCTION TRAILER BLOWN OVER.

0242 PM TSTM WND DMG HYATTSVILLE 38.96N 76.95W
04/20/2008 PRINCE GEORGES MD EMERGENCY MNGR

DAMAGE TO G.E. PETERS ADVENTIST SCHOOL ON RIGGS ROAD.

0426 PM FLOOD ANNANDALE 38.83N 77.21W
04/20/2008 FAIRFAX VA EMERGENCY MNGR

ROAD CLOSED AT THE INTERSECTION OF WOODBURN ROAD AND
SPICEWOOD DRIVE

0430 PM FLOOD ARLINGTON 38.88N 77.10W
04/20/2008 ARLINGTON VA EMERGENCY MNGR

REPORT OF FLOODING SOUTHBOUND ON THE GEORGE WASHINGTON
PARKWAY NEAR 14TH STREET BRIDGE

0620 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 SW BECKLEYSVILLE 39.60N 76.81W
04/20/2008 BALTIMORE MD EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE DOWN NEAR GUNPOWDER ROAD.

0910 PM FLOOD LEWISTOWN 39.54N 77.42W
04/20/2008 FREDERICK MD EMERGENCY MNGR

ROADS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

0230 AM FLOOD MOUNT VERNON 38.72N 77.11W
04/21/2008 FAIRFAX VA EMERGENCY MNGR

COLCHESTER ROAD CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

0230 AM FLOOD GLEEDSVILLE 39.05N 77.61W
04/21/2008 LOUDOUN VA EMERGENCY MNGR

HOGBACK MOUNTAIN ROAD CLOSED NEAR ROUTE 15 DUE TO HIGH
WATER. SEVERAL OTHER SCATTERED ROAD CLOSURES AT THIS TIME
COUNTYWIDE.

0600 AM FLOOD 1 NW MARTINSBURG 39.47N 77.98W
04/21/2008 BERKELEY WV EMERGENCY MNGR

EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS A ROAD CLOSURE BETWEEN
TENNESSEE AVE AND MILL RACE RD AT TUSCARORA CREEK.

0600 AM FLOOD E MARTINSBURG 39.46N 77.96W
04/21/2008 BERKELEY WV EMERGENCY MNGR

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS RACE ST CLOSED DUE TO
FLOODING

&&
PRELIMINARY SUMMARY FROM STORMS APRIL 20 AND 21
$$

SAR

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 210857
SWOD48
SPC AC 210857

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT MON APR 21 2008

VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...

MREF...GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 4 WITH
EVOLUTION OF UPPER PATTER...BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY DAY 6.

ON DAY 4 THE COMPACT UPPER JET MAX FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE SRN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND
UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA THURSDAY. STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS
AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND CONTRIBUTE TO A
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY OVER A PORTION OF THE MID MS
VALLEY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL
PRECLUDES INTRODUCING AN OUTLOOK AREA AT THIS TIME. OTHER STORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG SEWD ADVANCING FRONT FROM THE CNTRL AND
NRN PLAINS NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. WHILE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE...INSTABILITY MAY BE A LIMITING
FACTOR.

THE FRONT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND SWD
THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS DAY 5. SOME SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG PORTION OF THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SRN
PLAINS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. HOWEVER...THIS PORTION OF
THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SHIFT SOUTH OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT.
INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY BE A LIMITING FACTOR WITH STORMS MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY.

BEYOND DAY 5 DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS MREF MEMBERS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE AS THE ECMWF AMPLIFIES AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN STATES
MORE STRONGLY THAN THE GFS. IN EITHER CASE...OVERALL UPPER PATTERN
SUGGEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED DAY 6-8.

..DIAL.. 04/21/2008

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 210732
SWODY3
SPC AC 210730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT MON APR 21 2008

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS
INTO SWRN KS...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE WRN U.S. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE EAST. AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL LIKELY EJECT EWD INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT LAST SEVERAL RUNS EJECTING A SRN
STREAM SPEED MAX INTO WRN TX DURING THE DAY...AS WELL AS A SECONDARY
IMPULSE FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS TX TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY
STRETCH FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY WWD INTO NWRN TX EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT NWD DURING THE DAY. A DRYLINE WILL SETUP OVER
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT.

...SRN PLAINS...

DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT AND EAST OF DRYLINE BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMS. A POTENTIAL COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
ELEVATED STORMS COULD DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE
FRONT. THE NWD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT COULD BE IMPEDED SOMEWHAT
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THE FRONT MAY ADVANCE NWD INTO SRN OK. POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS WRN AND NWRN TX
AS EJECTING UPPER JET MAX ENHANCES DEEP ASCENT ALONG DRYLINE AS IT
MIXES EWD. ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EWD INTO PARTS OF NRN TX AND OK
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING WITHIN UPPER
JET EXIT REGION WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL JET. BULKS SHEAR
AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.
ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EWD INTO NRN TX AND OK DURING THE EVENING WITH
A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO HIGHER END PROBABILITIES ONCE UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING MESOSCALE DETAILS HAVE BEEN MITIGATED.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE RETURN IN THIS REGION WILL LIKELY BE MORE
LIMITED. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT AND AS DEEP ASCENT
ACCOMPANYING EJECTING UPPER TROUGH SPREADS OVER THE AREA. PRIMARY
THREAT APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. GIVEN
EXPECTED LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...ONLY 5%
SEVERE PROBABILITIES APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK IN LATER
OUTLOOKS.

..DIAL.. 04/21/2008

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KREV [210727]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KREV 210727
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1226 AM PDT MON APR 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0941 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 WSW GARDNERVILLE 38.91N 119.83W
04/19/2008 M51.00 MPH DOUGLAS NV TRAINED SPOTTER

WIND GUST 51 MPH FROM THE SSW.

0330 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 W LOYALTON 39.68N 120.31W
04/19/2008 M64.00 MPH SIERRA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 30 MPH.

0715 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 N VIRGINIA CITY 39.38N 119.64W
04/19/2008 M58.00 MPH STOREY NV MESONET

THE NEVADA DOT SENSOR AT FIVE MILE FLAT RECORDED A 58 MPH
WIND GUST.

0907 PM NON-TSTM WND GST WALKER LAKE 38.69N 118.74W
04/19/2008 M60.00 MPH MINERAL NV MESONET

THE NEVADA DOT SENSOR AT WALKER LAKE RECORDED A WIND GUST
TO 60 MPH.

0100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST MAMMOTH LAKES 37.64N 118.96W
04/20/2008 M58.00 MPH MONO CA AWOS

THE AWOS WIND SENSOR AT THE MAMMOTH LAKES AIRPORT
RECORDED A GUST TO 58 MPH.

0150 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 NW LEE VINING 38.06N 119.25W
04/20/2008 M75.00 MPH MONO CA MESONET

THE LUNDY LAKE RAWS RECORDED A 75 MPH WIND GUST.

&&

$$

O'HARA

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KLWX [210710]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 210710
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
309 AM EDT MON APR 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 AM FLOOD MOUNT VERNON 38.72N 77.11W
04/21/2008 FAIRFAX VA EMERGENCY MNGR

COLCHESTER ROAD CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

0230 AM FLOOD GLEEDSVILLE 39.05N 77.61W
04/21/2008 LOUDOUN VA EMERGENCY MNGR

HOGBACK MOUNTAIN ROAD CLOSED NEAR ROUTE 15 DUE TO HIGH
WATER. SEVERAL OTHER SCATTERED ROAD CLOSURES AT THIS TIME
COUNTYWIDE.

&&

$$

ROGOWSKI

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KABR [210654]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 210654
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
154 AM CDT MON APR 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0145 AM HAIL MCLAUGHLIN 45.81N 100.81W
04/21/2008 E1.00 INCH CORSON SD PUBLIC

&&

$$

CONNELLY

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KABR [210648]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 210648
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
148 AM CDT MON APR 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0140 AM HAIL MCLAUGHLIN 45.81N 100.81W
04/21/2008 E0.88 INCH CORSON SD PUBLIC

&&

$$

CONNELLY

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 210554
SWODY1
SPC AC 210552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT MON APR 21 2008

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN OK/SERN-ERN
KS/WRN-NRN MO TO FAR SRN IA...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT SHOWING LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH IN THE NWRN
U.S./SWRN CANADA WILL EVOLVE INTO AN ELONGATED POSITIVE TILTED
TROUGH WITH TWO SEPARATE CLOSED LOW CENTERS...1) ONE DEVELOPING NEWD
INTO CENTRAL CANADA...AND 2) SECOND LOW SHIFTING SLOWLY SWWD OFF THE
PAC NW COAST. A LEAD WEAK IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ENEWD INTO
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...WHILE A STRONGER AND FAST MOVING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS BY 22/00Z...AND THEN NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO LEAD IMPULSE AND CENTRAL
CANADA CLOSED LOW WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SRN EXTENT SPREADING SSEWD INTO NWRN MO TO
NWRN OK BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

...SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY REGION...
00Z GFS/NAM HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE
COLD FRONT SSEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NEWD THROUGH
NWRN OK TO ERN KS/NWRN MO TO CENTRAL IA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...A DRY LINE WILL MIX EWD INTO WRN OK AND CENTRAL TX THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE RETREATING WWD SOME TONIGHT. SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
LOCATED OVER THE WARM SECTOR THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO BACK TO SLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF GREAT BASIN SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN NWD MOISTURE RETURN WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND WRN AR EAST
OF THE DRY LINE...WHILE UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS REACH INTO CENTRAL PARTS
OF IA ALONG COLD FRONT.

SWLY FLOW LOCATED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG
EML ATOP THE MOISTURE RETURN...WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE
SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO SRN/ERN KS TO WRN MO. THIS EML IS EXPECTED TO
CAP THE WARM SECTOR FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND LIKELY PRECLUDE
SURFACE BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY /MUCAPES
APPROACHING 2500 J/KG/...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KT AND
CONVERGENCE AT THE TRIPLE POINT...THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON /AFTER 21Z/.
IF STORMS DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME FRAME...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WOULD
BE LIKELY WITH ATTENDANT THREATS FOR A FEW TORNADOES AND LARGE
HAIL...SOME VERY LARGE...GIVEN THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS AND
KINEMATICS.

OTHERWISE...AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS NEWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...TSTMS SHOULD
DEVELOP NEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO ERN KS/WRN MO AND IA.
ALTHOUGH STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE POST
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT...MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN INTO
SERN KS/WRN MO COMBINED WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS.

...ERN OK/AR/SRN MO MAINLY TONIGHT...
LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO SWLY TONIGHT AS GREAT BASIN
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS N OF THIS REGION TOWARD THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN WAA REGIME...WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY UP TO 1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KT
SUPPORTING A FEW STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING HAIL.

...UPPER MS VALLEY...
MODELS SUGGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A LEAD MID LEVEL
IMPULSE SPREADING ENEWD ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY COMBINED WITH
FRONTAL CIRCULATION ALONG COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT TSTMS SPREADING
EWD THROUGH ERN DAKOTAS/MN TO WRN WI/WRN U.P. OF MI. EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF 25-30 KT MAY SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT WEAK
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. STORMS
SHOULD BECOME UNDERCUT AS THE COLD FRONT SPREADS EWD...WITH ISOLATED
HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

...ERN NC...
CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NC AT 12Z TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS SEWD TO OFF THE NC/SC COAST BY MID-LATE THIS
EVENING. RESIDUAL SURFACE MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S/
COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING BENEATH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
/-22 C AT 500 MB/ ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY
/MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG/ INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE WEAK ALONG TRACK OF UPPER LOW...STEEP LAPSE RATES/COLD
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED HAIL/WIND
THREATS WITH STRONGEST STORMS.

..PETERS/GRAMS.. 04/21/2008

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 210525
SWODY2
SPC AC 210524

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 AM CDT MON APR 21 2008

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NE THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY.
TRAILING PORTION OF FRONT WILL MOVE SWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
TX WHERE IT WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK NWD AS A
WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SRN
PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY RETREAT WWD INTO WRN
TX TUESDAY NIGHT AS SSELY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO
HEIGHT FALLS RESULTING FROM UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING THROUGH THE WRN
U.S. AND NRN MEXICO.

...MID MS VALLEY THROUGH SRN PLAINS...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH
THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEY AND ERN OK. THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A THREAT
FOR MAINLY HAIL. WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE BENEATH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE...MAINLY OVER PARTS OF TX AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED STORMS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY REGIONS
WHERE CAP MAY BE WEAKER ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF THE EML. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.
HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER WIND AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE DAY. THERE IS ALSO
CONCERN THAT ONGOING PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS MIGHT LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL OVER THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEY.

FARTHER WEST ACROSS SRN OK AND TX...WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...
STRONG CAP AND BUILDING RIDGE WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY. IF ISOLATED STORMS DO MANAGE TO
DEVELOP...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE
THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE DESPITE
MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES.

OVERNIGHT...OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE FROM NWRN TX INTO OK
WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION NORTH OF THE
FRONT...AUGMENTED BY THE DEVELOPING SLY LOW LEVEL JET. ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES GIVEN THE CONDITIONAL NATURE
OF THE THREAT IN THESE AREAS.

..DIAL.. 04/21/2008

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 210516
SWODY2
SPC AC 210514

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 AM CDT MON APR 21 2008

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NE THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY.
TRAILING PORTION OF FRONT WILL MOVE SWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
TX WHERE IT WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK NWD AS A
WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SRN
PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY RETREAT WWD INTO WRN
TX TUESDAY NIGHT AS SSELY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO
HEIGHT FALLS RESULTING FROM UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING THROUGH THE WRN
U.S. AND NRN MEXICO.

...MID MS VALLEY THROUGH SRN PLAINS...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH
THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEY AND ERN OK. THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A THREAT
FOR MAINLY HAIL. WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE BENEATH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE...MAINLY OVER PARTS OF TX AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED STORMS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY REGIONS
WHERE CAP MAY BE WEAKER ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF THE EML. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.
HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER WIND AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE DAY. THERE IS ALSO
CONCERN THAT ONGOING PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS MIGHT LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL OVER THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEY.

FARTHER WEST ACROSS SRN OK AND TX...WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...
STRONG CAP AND BUILDING RIDGE WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY. IF ISOLATED STORMS DO MANAGE TO
DEVELOP...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE
THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE DESPITE
MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES.

OVERNIGHT...OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE FROM NWRN TX INTO OK
WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION NORTH OF THE
FRONT...AUGMENTED BY THE DEVELOPING SLY LOW LEVEL JET. ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES GIVEN THE CONDITIONAL NATURE
OF THE THREAT IN THESE AREAS.

..DIAL.. 04/21/2008

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KPDT [210512]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPDT 210512
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1012 PM PDT SUN APR 20 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1010 PM SNOW LA GRANDE 45.33N 118.09W
04/20/2008 E2.5 INCH UNION OR PUBLIC

2 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW THIS EVENING. ELEVATION 2755
FT.

&&

$$

JAS

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 210

WWUS20 KWNS 210503
SEL0
SPC WW 210503
NCZ000-VAZ000-CWZ000-210500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 210
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
103 AM EDT MON APR 21 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 210 ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTH CAROLINA
VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS

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