DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 070055
SWODY1
SPC AC 070052

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 PM CST TUE NOV 06 2007

VALID 070100Z - 071200Z

..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..LWR GRTLKS...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY EWD THROUGH WRN NY
AND NWRN PA EARLY THIS EVENING. MIXED SYNOPTIC AND LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION TO MORE PURELY LAKE EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT
IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. ASIDE FROM AN ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKE IN THE
HEAVIER SQUALLS OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THAT THE PROBABILITIES FOR TSTMS
HAVE DECREASED BELOW THE 10% THRESHOLD OWING TO THE GRADUALLY
LOWERING EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS.

.RACY.. 11/07/2007

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KDLH [070009]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 070009
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
609 PM CST TUE NOV 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0415 PM SNOW GILE 46.43N 90.23W
11/06/2007 M6.0 INCH IRON WI TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR THE EVENT

&&

$$

MELDE

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KDLH [062101]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KDLH 062101
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
301 PM CST TUE NOV 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0755 AM SNOW GILE 46.43N 90.23W
11/06/2007 M3.0 INCH IRON WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0755 AM SNOW UPSON 46.37N 90.41W
11/06/2007 M2.0 INCH IRON WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0755 AM SNOW BUTTERNUT 46.01N 90.50W
11/06/2007 M0.5 INCH ASHLAND WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0950 AM SNOW 6 NW GLIDDEN 46.20N 90.67W
11/06/2007 E6.0 INCH ASHLAND WI DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ESTIMATED 4 TO 7 INCHES IN CENTRAL ASHLAND COUNTY

0952 AM SNOW GLIDDEN 46.13N 90.58W
11/06/2007 M2.0 INCH ASHLAND WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0240 PM SNOW MONTREAL 46.43N 90.24W
11/06/2007 M6.0 INCH IRON WI TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL

&&

$$

TLONKA

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061942
SWODY1
SPC AC 061940

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 PM CST TUE NOV 06 2007

VALID 062000Z - 071200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...
WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF LAKE ERIE BY 06/21-22Z...
AND NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE 07/00-03Z TIME FRAME. IN
ITS WAKE...MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/WARMING WILL REDUCE POTENTIAL DEPTH
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY INLAND OF WARMER LAKE
WATERS. AS THIS OCCURS...THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES NEAR LOWER
THRESHOLD OF CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WILL DIMINISH FURTHER.

..ATLANTIC COAST...
NATIONAL LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK INDICATES A FEW POSSIBLE CLOUD
TO GROUND STRIKES WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR COASTAL MAINE...
IN AN ELEVATED LAYER OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT...NORTH OF WARM FRONT
..AND EAST OF OCCLUDED FRONT. THIS COULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY
EVENING...BUT THE PRIMARY RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED AREAS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...NEAR THE
GULF STREAM...EAST OF NORTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS THROUGH
MID EVENING.

.KERR.. 11/06/2007

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KMKX [061908]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 061908
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
108 PM CST TUE NOV 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1245 PM NON-TSTM WND GST JANESVILLE 42.68N 89.02W
11/06/2007 M46 MPH ROCK WI AWOS

&&

$$

GD

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KILN [061820]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KILN 061820
LSRILN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
120 PM EST TUE NOV 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0324 PM HAIL 2 E BUENA VISTA 39.55N 82.64W
11/05/2007 E0.75 INCH HOCKING OH PUBLIC

&&

$$

HATZOS

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KMQT [061704]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 061704
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1204 PM EST TUE NOV 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY SNOW CHAMPION 46.52N 87.97W
11/06/2007 M12.0 INCH MARQUETTE MI CO-OP OBSERVER

9 INCHES IN 12 HOURS, 12 INCHES IN 24 HOURS.

0700 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 S WATTON 46.52N 88.60W
11/06/2007 M5.8 INCH BARAGA MI CO-OP OBSERVER

IN 24 HOURS.

0700 AM HEAVY SNOW 8 W MARQUETTE 46.55N 87.56W
11/06/2007 M6.7 INCH MARQUETTE MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

IN 24 HOURS, 5.7 INCHES IN 12 HOURS.

0730 AM HEAVY SNOW 5 W ISHPEMING 46.49N 87.77W
11/06/2007 E6.0 INCH MARQUETTE MI PUBLIC

IN 24 HOURS. DRIFTS UP TO 8 TO 9 INCHES DEEP.

0800 AM HEAVY SNOW NEGAUNEE 46.50N 87.60W
11/06/2007 M9.8 INCH MARQUETTE MI PUBLIC

IN 24 HOURS.

0910 AM HEAVY SNOW 13 S KENTON 46.29N 88.88W
11/06/2007 M7.8 INCH IRON MI CO-OP OBSERVER

IN 24 HOURS.

1145 AM HEAVY SNOW N ROCKLAND 46.73N 89.18W
11/06/2007 M9.5 INCH ONTONAGON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

IN 24 HOURS.

&&

$$

MRC

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 061623
SWODY2
SPC AC 061622

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1022 AM CST TUE NOV 06 2007

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NEGATIVELY TILTED
LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN STATES
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE PRIMARY EMBEDDED IMPULSE...IN THE
FORM OF A CLOSED LOW...IS PROGGED TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES AND WEAKEN. AS THIS OCCURS...THE CENTER OF A LARGE COLD
SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE OZARK
PLATEAU INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY. BUT...RIDGING IS PROGGED TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GULF COAST...AND SIGNIFICANT GULF OF MEXICO AIR MASS
MODIFICATION/RETURN FLOW IS NOT LIKELY. WITH THE ENVIRONMENT ALSO
REMAINING GENERALLY DRY/STABLE BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES...POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE U.S. APPEARS
NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY AND BEYOND.

.KERR.. 11/06/2007

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KJKL [061609]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KJKL 061609
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1109 AM EST TUE NOV 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0405 PM HAIL 5 NNW COWAN 38.47N 83.94W
11/05/2007 E0.75 INCH FLEMING KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED

0423 PM TSTM WND DMG MOUNT CARMEL 38.49N 83.64W
11/05/2007 FLEMING KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

*** 2 INJ *** 2 PEOPLE WERE INJURED WHEN THEY WERE BLOWN
OFF SCAFFOLDING DURING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. EXTENT OF
INJURIES UNKNOWN.

0505 PM HAIL JUDY 38.13N 83.96W
11/05/2007 E0.75 INCH MONTGOMERY KY PUBLIC

0511 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 SSW OWINGSVILLE 38.10N 83.78W
11/05/2007 BATH KY FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

ONE TREE DOWN ON STEPSTONE RD.

0514 PM HAIL 2 N OWINGSVILLE 38.17N 83.76W
11/05/2007 E0.88 INCH BATH KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED. EVENT LASTED 10 MINUTES.

0516 PM TSTM WND DMG OWINGSVILLE 38.14N 83.76W
11/05/2007 BATH KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL TREES DOWN AROUND OWINGSVILLE

0531 PM TSTM WND DMG MOREHEAD 38.19N 83.44W
11/05/2007 ROWAN KY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

FEW TREES DOWN IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY

0553 PM TSTM WND DMG LEISURE 38.04N 83.33W
11/05/2007 MORGAN KY PUBLIC

FEW LARGE LIMBS DOWN

&&

$$

WJM

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KJKL [061609]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 061609
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1109 AM EST TUE NOV 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0553 PM TSTM WND DMG LEISURE 38.04N 83.33W
11/05/2007 MORGAN KY PUBLIC

FEW LARGE LIMBS DOWN

&&

$$

WJM

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KDLH [061606]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 061606
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1006 AM CST TUE NOV 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0755 AM SNOW GILE 46.43N 90.23W
11/06/2007 M3.0 INCH IRON WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0755 AM SNOW UPSON 46.37N 90.41W
11/06/2007 M2.0 INCH IRON WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0755 AM SNOW BUTTERNUT 46.01N 90.50W
11/06/2007 M0.5 INCH ASHLAND WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0950 AM SNOW 6 NW GLIDDEN 46.20N 90.67W
11/06/2007 E6.0 INCH ASHLAND WI DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ESTIMATED 4 TO 7 INCHES IN CENTRAL ASHLAND COUNTY

0952 AM SNOW GLIDDEN 46.13N 90.58W
11/06/2007 M2.0 INCH ASHLAND WI TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

TLONKA

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KMKX [061600]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 061600
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1000 AM CST TUE NOV 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0945 AM HIGH SUST WINDS JANESVILLE 42.68N 89.02W
11/06/2007 M30 MPH ROCK WI AWOS

PEAK WIND GUST FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 41 MPH.

&&

$$

GD

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KJKL [061554]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KJKL 061554
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1054 AM EST TUE NOV 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0514 PM HAIL 2 N OWINGSVILLE 38.17N 83.76W
11/05/2007 E0.88 INCH BATH KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED. EVENT LASTED 10 MINUTES.

&&
CORRECTED TO ADD AMOUNT OF TIME THE EVENT LASTED
$$

WJM

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KJKL [061552]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 061552
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1052 AM EST TUE NOV 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0531 PM TSTM WND DMG MOREHEAD 38.19N 83.44W
11/05/2007 ROWAN KY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

FEW TREES DOWN IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY

&&

$$

WJM

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061548
SWODY1
SPC AC 061546

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0946 AM CST TUE NOV 06 2007

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..EASTERN GREAT LAKES...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
TODAY. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT /AOB MINUS 30C AT 500 MB/ WILL SWEEP E
ACROSS NY AND INTO NW NEW ENGLAND BY EVENING. DEEP...MODERATELY
STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE LAKES...AND VERY DEEP
MIXED LAYER...SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE PLUME DEVELOPMENT IN THE LEE
OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. TEMPORAL VEERING OF WIND PROFILES AND
PASSAGE OF UPR TROUGH AXIS SHOULD WEAKEN LAKE ERIE PLUME THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SETUP SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR PLUME MODE
THROUGH THIS EVENING E OF LAKE ONTARIO. GIVEN WARM LAKE / LOWER
CLOUD TEMPERATURES AND DEGREE OF COOLING ALOFT...ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.HART/GRAMS.. 11/06/2007

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KAPX [061437]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KAPX 061437
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
936 AM EST TUE NOV 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0602 AM SNOW 6 S GAYLORD 44.95N 84.67W
11/06/2007 M1.9 INCH OTSEGO MI NWS EMPLOYEE

12 HR TOTAL THROUGH 6 AM. SNOWDEPTH 2 IN.

0636 AM SNOW KALKASKA 44.73N 85.18W
11/06/2007 M2.0 INCH KALKASKA MI TRAINED SPOTTER

3 HR TOTAL THRU 6 AM. SNOWDEPTH 2 IN.

0709 AM SNOW 11 N LAKE CITY 44.49N 85.21W
11/06/2007 M4.0 INCH MISSAUKEE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HR TOTAL THRU 7 AM. SNOWDEPTH 4 IN.

0709 AM SNOW 9 SSW GAYLORD 44.91N 84.74W
11/06/2007 M4.0 INCH OTSEGO MI CO-OP OBSERVER

12 HR TOTAL THRU 7 AM. SNOWDEPTH 4 IN.

0732 AM SNOW 7 E CADILLAC 44.25N 85.27W
11/06/2007 M0.4 INCH MISSAUKEE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HR TOTAL THRU 7 AM.

0748 AM SNOW 10 S GRAYLING 44.51N 84.71W
11/06/2007 M2.0 INCH ROSCOMMON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HR TOTAL THRU 7 AM. SNOWDEPTH 2 IN.

0749 AM SNOW ALBA 44.98N 84.97W
11/06/2007 M0.3 INCH ANTRIM MI TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM SNOW 3 SE GAYLORD 45.00N 84.63W
11/06/2007 M2.4 INCH OTSEGO MI NWS EMPLOYEE

12 HR TOTAL THRU 8 AM. SNOWDEPTH 2 IN.

0800 AM SNOW 3 ESE ELMIRA 45.05N 84.79W
11/06/2007 M1.0 INCH OTSEGO MI NWS EMPLOYEE

12 HR TOTAL THRU 8 AM. SNOWDEPTH TRACE.

&&

$$

LAWRENCE

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KAPX [061435]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 061435
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
934 AM EST TUE NOV 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 3 ESE ELMIRA 45.05N 84.79W
11/06/2007 M1.0 INCH OTSEGO MI TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HR TOTAL THRU 8 AM. SNOWDEPTH TRACE.

&&

$$

LAWRENCE

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KJKL [061409]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 061409
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
909 AM EST TUE NOV 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0505 PM HAIL JUDY 38.13N 83.96W
11/05/2007 E0.75 INCH MONTGOMERY KY PUBLIC

&&

$$

WJM

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KJKL [061351]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KJKL 061351
LSRJKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
851 AM EST TUE NOV 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0405 PM HAIL 5 NNW COWAN 38.47N 83.94W
11/05/2007 E0.75 INCH FLEMING KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED

0423 PM TSTM WND DMG MOUNT CARMEL 38.49N 83.64W
11/05/2007 FLEMING KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

*** 2 INJ *** 2 PEOPLE WERE INJURED WHEN THEY WERE BLOWN
OFF SCAFFOLDING DURING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. EXTENT OF
INJURIES UNKNOWN.

0514 PM HAIL 2 N OWINGSVILLE 38.17N 83.76W
11/05/2007 E0.88 INCH BATH KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED

0516 PM TSTM WND DMG OWINGSVILLE 38.14N 83.76W
11/05/2007 BATH KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL TREES DOWN AROUND OWINGSVILLE

&&

$$

WJM

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KAPX [061340]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 061340
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
840 AM EST TUE NOV 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 3 SE GAYLORD 45.00N 84.63W
11/06/2007 M2.4 INCH OTSEGO MI NWS EMPLOYEE

12 HR TOTAL THRU 8 AM. SNOWDEPTH 2 IN.

&&

$$

LAWRENCE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061258
SWODY1
SPC AC 061255

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 AM CST TUE NOV 06 2007

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
TROUGH OVER THE UPR GRT LKS WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY AS IT CONTINUES E
INTO ERN ONTARIO/WRN NY LATER TODAY...AND INTO QUEBEC EARLY
WEDNESDAY. CP AIR WILL INVADE THE LWR LKS AND NERN STATES...
REACHING THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS BY THIS EVENING AND MOST OF FL
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ANY TSTM POTENTIAL WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS OFF
THE MID / N ATLANTIC CST...AND OVER THE LWR GRT LKS.

..LWR GRT LKS...
LEADING EDGE OF VERY COLD AIR ALOFT /AOB MINUS 30C AT 500 MB/ HAS
REACHED WRN NY AND NW PA THIS MORNING AND WILL SWEEP E ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF UPSTATE NY INTO NW NEW ENGLAND BY EVENING. DEEP...
MODERATELY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE LKS...AND VERY
DEEP MIXED LAYER...SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE PLUME DEVELOPMENT IN
THE LEE OF LKS ERIE AND ONTARIO. TEMPORAL VEERING OF WIND PROFILES
AND PASSAGE OF UPR TROUGH AXIS SHOULD WEAKEN LK ERIE PLUME THIS
AFTN. HOWEVER ...SETUP SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR PLUME MODE
THROUGH THIS EVENING E OF LK ONTARIO. GIVEN WARM LAKE / LWR CLOUD
TEMPERATURES AND DEGREE OF COOLING ALOFT...SCTD EMBEDDED THUNDER
APPEARS LIKELY.

MULTI-BANDED LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY WITH ISOLD LIGHTNING
STRIKES...SHOULD PERSIST TONIGHT DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE/ONTARIO.

.CORFIDI/GUYER.. 11/06/2007

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KLMK [061257]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected.

NWUS53 KLMK 061257 CCA
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
757 AM EST TUE NOV 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0626 PM TSTM WND DMG N GLASGOW 37.00N 85.92W
11/05/2007 BARREN KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

4 TO 6 UTILITY POLES WERE DOWNED AND LARGE POLE BARN WAS
DAMAGED. DELAYED REPORT.

&&

$$

MJ

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KLMK [061257]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLMK 061257
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
757 AM EST TUE NOV 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0626 PM TSTM WND DMG N GLASGOW 37.00N 85.92W
11/05/2007 BARREN KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

4 TO 6 LARGE UTILITY POLES DOWNED AND A LARGE POLE BARN
WAS DAMAGED.

0626 PM TSTM WND DMG N GLASGOW 37.00N 85.92W
11/05/2007 BARREN KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

4 TO 6 UTILITY POLES WERE DOWNED AND LARGE POLE BARN WAS
DAMAGED. DELAYED REPORT.

&&

$$

MJ

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KLMK [061254]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLMK 061254
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
753 AM EST TUE NOV 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0450 PM HAIL PARIS 38.21N 84.26W
11/05/2007 M0.88 INCH BOURBON KY BROADCAST MEDIA

DELAYED REPORT OF HAIL.

&&

$$

MJ

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KAPX [061249]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 061249
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
749 AM EST TUE NOV 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0749 AM SNOW ALBA 44.98N 84.97W
11/06/2007 M0.3 INCH ANTRIM MI TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

KAS

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KAPX [061249]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 061249
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
749 AM EST TUE NOV 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0748 AM SNOW 10 S GRAYLING 44.51N 84.71W
11/06/2007 M2.0 INCH ROSCOMMON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HR TOTAL THRU 7 AM. SNOWDEPTH 2 IN.

&&

$$

KAS

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KAPX [061238]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KAPX 061238
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
738 AM EST TUE NOV 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0732 AM SNOW 7 E CADILLAC 44.25N 85.27W
11/06/2007 M0.4 INCH MISSAUKEE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HR TOTAL THRU 7 AM.

&&

$$

KAS

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KAPX [061233]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 061233
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
733 AM EST TUE NOV 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0732 AM SNOW 7 E CADILLAC 44.25N 85.27W
11/06/2007 M0.4 INCH MISSAUKEE MI AIRPLANE PILOT

12 HR TOTAL THRU 7 AM.

&&

$$

KAS

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KAPX [061217]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 061217
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
716 AM EST TUE NOV 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0709 AM SNOW 9 SSW GAYLORD 44.91N 84.74W
11/06/2007 M4.0 INCH OTSEGO MI CO-OP OBSERVER

12 HR TOTAL THRU 7 AM. SNOWDEPTH 4 IN.

&&

$$

KAS

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KAPX [061215]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 061215
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
715 AM EST TUE NOV 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0709 AM SNOW 11 N LAKE CITY 44.49N 85.21W
11/06/2007 M4.0 INCH MISSAUKEE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HR TOTAL THRU 7 AM. SNOWDEPTH 4 IN.

&&

$$

KAS

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KAPX [061139]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 061139
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
639 AM EST TUE NOV 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0636 AM SNOW KALKASKA 44.73N 85.18W
11/06/2007 M2.0 INCH KALKASKA MI TRAINED SPOTTER

3 HR TOTAL THRU 6 AM. SNOWDEPTH 2 IN.

&&

$$

KAS

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KAPX [061107]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 061107
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
607 AM EST TUE NOV 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0602 AM SNOW 6 S GAYLORD 44.95N 84.67W
11/06/2007 M1.9 INCH OTSEGO MI NWS EMPLOYEE

12 HR TOTAL THROUGH 6 AM. SNOWDEPTH 2 IN.

&&

$$

KAS

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 060900
SWOD48
SPC AC 060859

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 AM CST TUE NOV 06 2007

VALID 091200Z - 141200Z

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEAMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WRN
STATES EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS IS WHERE
THE ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE WITH TWO MARKEDLY DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE SRN
PLAINS AND THE GFS DEVELOPS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN
AND CNTRL STATES. WHICH SOLUTION VERIFIES REMAINS UNCLEAR BUT THE
ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE
SRN TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND PROXIMITY TO GULF OF MEXICO LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS CLOSER TO VERIFYING AND ENOUGH
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE WIDE RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS...CAN NOT OUTLOOK AN
AREA ATTM.

.BROYLES.. 11/06/2007

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KGRB [060809]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 060809
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
209 AM CST TUE NOV 06 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 PM SNOW CONOVER 46.04N 89.25W
11/05/2007 E5.0 INCH VILAS WI PUBLIC

SNOWFALL AS OF 10 PM MONDAY EVENING COURTESY OF CHANNEL
12 IN RHINELANDER.

&&

$$

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 060730
SWODY3
SPC AC 060727

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 AM CST TUE NOV 06 2007

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CNTRL
STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EWD FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THE SFC...A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY REGION THURSDAY WITH A
SFC LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER WEST TX. EAST OF THE LOW...SLY FLOW
ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL TX WILL ALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN NWD
ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE INADEQUATE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.BROYLES.. 11/06/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 060554
SWODY2
SPC AC 060552

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 PM CST MON NOV 05 2007

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE APPALACHIAN MTNS TONIGHT WILL MOVE
EWD ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY WITH A BROAD ZONE OF NORTHWEST
FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY REGIONS. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE SERN U.S. AND THIS WILL
SUPPRESS MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE SRN U.S. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT...NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CONUS DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD.

.BROYLES.. 11/06/2007

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