KIWX [151857]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 151857
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
257 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0250 PM TSTM WND GST SYRACUSE 41.42N 85.75W
05/15/2007 M61 MPH KOSCIUSKO IN NWS OFFICE

&&

$$

NWS

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KLOT [151852]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 151852
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
152 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0125 PM TSTM WND GST DWIGHT 41.10N 88.42W
05/15/2007 M60.00 MPH LIVINGSTON IL PUBLIC

60 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT DWIGHT, IL AIRPORT

0143 PM HAIL COAL CITY 41.29N 88.28W
05/15/2007 E0.88 INCH GRUNDY IL TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN COAL CITY

&&

$$

CGITRO

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KILX [151851]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KILX 151851
LSRILX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
151 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0115 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 N BUFFALO 39.86N 89.41W
05/15/2007 SANGAMON IL EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS POWERLINES DOWN. REPORT FROM SANGAMON COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGER

0133 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 N ILLIOPOLIS 39.87N 89.25W
05/15/2007 SANGAMON IL EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS POWERLINES DOWN

&&

$$

KELLY

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KILX [151843]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KILX 151843
LSRILX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
143 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0115 PM TSTM WND DMG DIVERNON 39.57N 89.65W
05/15/2007 SANGAMON IL EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE LIMB DOWN ON HOME WITH MINOR DAMAGE TO HOUSE. REPORT
FROM SANGAMON CO EMERGENCY MANAGER

&&

$$

KELLY

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KLSX [151843]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 151843
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
143 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1155 AM TSTM WND DMG LIBERTY 39.88N 91.11W
05/15/2007 ADAMS IL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

SEVERAL LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN AND UPROOTED. POWER LINES
DOWN AND POLE BARNS DAMAGED.

&&

$$

SR

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KILX [151833]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KILX 151833
LSRILX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
131 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0115 PM TSTM WND GST DIVERNON 39.57N 89.65W
05/15/2007 E60.00 MPH SANGAMON IL EMERGENCY MNGR

POWERLINES DOWN ON THE SW SIDE OF DIVERNON...TREE LIMBS
DOWN IN TOWN...AUTOMOBILE DAMAGE DUE TO FALLING LIMBS.
REPORT FROM SANGAMON CO EMERGENCY MANAGER

&&
..CORRECTED REPORT TYPE...
$$

KELLY

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KILX [151829]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KILX 151829
LSRILX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
129 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0107 PM TSTM WND DMG DIVERNON 39.57N 89.65W
05/15/2007 SANGAMON IL EMERGENCY MNGR

SMALL STATIONARY CONSTRUCTION TRAILER PUSHED OVER ALONG
I-55 NEAR DIVERNON. REPORT FROM EMERGENCY MANAGER.

&&
..CORRECTED REPORT TIME...
$$

KELLY

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0806

ACUS11 KWNS 151827
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151827
MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-152000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0806
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NY...NH...VT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 151827Z - 152000Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY IF SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE ACROSS NY...VT OR NH.
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A
WW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
THIS EVENING.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER SWRN ONTARIO WITH A 1005 MB
LOW OVER ERN ONTARIO. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND SFC LOW...WINDS ARE
VEERED AND A THERMAL AXIS EXISTS ACROSS WRN NY WHERE TEMPS ARE IN
THE MID 80S F. ALTHOUGH ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE
THERMAL AXIS...SFC-BASED INITIATION WILL BECOME POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN SRN NY WHERE A BAND OF EXPANDING CUMULUS IS EVIDENT ON
VISIBLE IMAGERY. INITIATION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FURTHER EAST IN
THE HUDSON RIVER...MOHAWK AND CONNECTICUT VALLEYS WHERE SFC TEMPS
WILL BE LOCALLY WARMER AS WELL. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY
SHOWS STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO A 60
KT MID-LEVEL JET CENTERED OVER SWRN ONTARIO. IF STORMS
INITIATE...THE SHEAR COULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL
THREAT ESPECIALLY WHERE INSTABILITY IS LOCALLY ENHANCED. LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS OR
ORGANIZED LINES THAT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.BROYLES.. 05/15/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

42207368 42117603 42057722 42127856 43067858 43367735
43367622 43477463 43357250 42317224

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KILX [151826]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KILX 151826
LSRILX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
126 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0115 PM NON-TSTM WND GST DIVERNON 39.57N 89.65W
05/15/2007 E60 MPH SANGAMON IL EMERGENCY MNGR

POWERLINES DOWN ON THE SW SIDE OF DIVERNON...TREE LIMBS
DOWN IN TOWN...AUTOMOBILE DAMAGE DUE TO FALLING LIMBS.
REPORT FROM SANGAMON CO EMERGENCY MANAGER

&&

$$

KELLY

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KILX [151820]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KILX 151820
LSRILX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
120 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1215 PM TSTM WND DMG DIVERNON 39.57N 89.65W
05/15/2007 SANGAMON IL EMERGENCY MNGR

SMALL STATIONARY CONSTRUCTION TRAILER PUSHED OVER ALONG
I-55 NEAR DIVERNON. REPORT FROM EMERGENCY MANAGER.

&&

$$

KELLY

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KJAN [151818]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 151818
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
118 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0110 PM HAIL BASTROP 32.77N 91.91W
05/15/2007 E0.88 INCH MOREHOUSE LA EMERGENCY MNGR

POWER IS OUT IN MUCH OF DOWNTOWN BASTROP ALSO.

&&

$$

AG

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KTSA [151814]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 151814
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
114 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 AM HAIL 2 SW MOUNTAINBURG 35.62N 94.19W
05/15/2007 E0.75 INCH CRAWFORD AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

RBD

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KLSX [151810]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 151810
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
110 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1140 AM TSTM WND DMG QUINCY 39.93N 91.39W
05/15/2007 ADAMS IL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

REPORT OF POWER LINE DOWN IN 5 LOCATIONS,

&&

$$

JPK

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KLSX [151806]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 151806
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
106 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1150 AM TSTM WND DMG 2 NE LIBERTY 39.90N 91.08W
05/15/2007 ADAMS IL BROADCAST MEDIA

BARN DOOR BLOWN OFF. CATTLE GATE DAMAGED. LAWN ORNAMENTS
SCATTERED.

&&

$$

JPK

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KLZK [151801]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 151801
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
100 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1255 PM HAIL LAMAR 35.44N 93.39W
05/15/2007 E0.75 INCH JOHNSON AR NWS EMPLOYEE

PENNY SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED AT THE LAMAR EXIT ON I-40 BY
JOE GOUSWARD.

&&

$$

219

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 275

WWUS20 KWNS 151755
SEL5
SPC WW 151755
ILZ000-INZ000-MIZ000-OHZ000-LEZ000-LHZ000-160200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 275
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS
NORTHERN INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
NORTHWESTERN OHIO
LAKE ERIE
LAKE HURON

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
DANVILLE ILLINOIS TO 5 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF BAD AXE MICHIGAN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 274...

DISCUSSION...BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND INCREASED ASCENT WITHIN
MARGINAL TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WW. SHEAR
WILL REMAIN STRONGEST INTO NRN IND AND MI WHERE MORE ORGANIZED
STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE COMMON WITH STRONGER CORES ACROSS WW THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26025.

..EVANS

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KJAN [151739]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 151739
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1239 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1228 PM HAIL 4 S LAKE VILLAGE 33.27N 91.28W
05/15/2007 E1.00 INCH CHICOT AR EMERGENCY MNGR

QUARTER AND DIME HAIL REPORTED ALONG HWY 82.

&&

$$

JCULIN

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0805

ACUS11 KWNS 151738
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151737
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-151900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0805
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF LA...SERN AR...WRN MS...SWRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 151737Z - 151900Z

WIDESPREAD PULSE TYPE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ENHANCED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTING E THROUGH THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. ALTHOUGH AMPLE INSTABILITY EXISTS...PALTRY
SHEAR WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION. THIS SHOULD RESTRICT THE SEVERE
THREAT TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DOWNBURST WINDS.

RADAR AND LIGHTNING IMAGERY HAVE DEPICTED NUMEROUS TSTMS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY NEAR MEM SWWD TOWARDS THE SABINE RIVER
VALLEY IN ERN TX/WRN LA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS FORMED IN CONJUCTION WITH
A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE TRAVERSING THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY...AND
ALONG SSW TO NNE-ORIENTED LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE BANDS. TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH DEW POINTS HOLDING IN
THE UPPER 60S. THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATING MLCAPES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG.
HOWEVER...VERY WEAK SHEAR /AROUND 10 KTS PER REGIONAL VAD PROFILERS/
WILL MITIGATE OVERALL ORGANIZATION TO PULSE TYPE STORMS WITH SOME
TENDENCY TO EVOLVE INTO MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS. RELATIVELY COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-12 TO -13 DEG C AT 500 MB IN 12Z OBSERVED
SOUNDINGS/ WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREAT.

.GRAMS.. 05/15/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

35708950 34598978 33129040 31669092 30439180 30109272
30419374 31359404 32659343 35289101

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KLIX [151730]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 151730
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1230 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1157 AM HAIL 5 S MAGNOLIA 31.08N 90.46W
05/15/2007 E0.75 INCH PIKE MS COUNTY OFFICIAL

DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL IN CHATAWA

&&

$$

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KSGF [151724]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 151724
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1224 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1212 PM HAIL 1 NW FORSYTH 36.70N 93.13W
05/15/2007 M0.88 INCH TANEY MO PUBLIC

1220 PM HAIL NIXA 37.04N 93.29W
05/15/2007 E0.25 INCH CHRISTIAN MO PUBLIC

&&

$$

MTERRY

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0804

ACUS11 KWNS 151715
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151715
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-151845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0804
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI...FAR ERN IL...NW IND.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 151715Z - 151845Z

A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS LOWER MI...NW IND AND FAR ERN
IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE AS STORMS INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WW
MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

17Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WWD ACROSS LOWER MI
INTO SE WI AND FAR ERN IA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT..POCKETS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY ARE ALREADY PRESENT. SBCAPE VALUES ACROSS SRN LOWER MI
AND NW IND RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS. IN ADDITION...A GROWING BAND OF CUMULUS IS EVIDENT IN THIS
AREA ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS NOT THAT
STRONG...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MCD AREA. IN ADDITION...A CAPPING INVERSION EVIDENT ON THE
DETROIT MI 12Z SOUNDING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY IN THE 18Z TO 20Z TIMEFRAME. ALTHOUGH
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT THAT STRONG ATTM...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS RAPIDLY INCREASE 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW IND AND LOWER MI. AS A RESULT...A THREAT FOR
SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS
AND THE STRONGER MULTICELLS.

.BROYLES.. 05/15/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...

38728744 38788866 39898846 40378822 41618718 43668354
42658265 41428488 40258637

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KSGF [151711]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 151711
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1211 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0738 AM FLOOD PITTSBURG 37.41N 94.70W
05/15/2007 CRAWFORD KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

STREET FLOODING IN PITTSBURG

&&

$$

MTERRY

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KLSX [151709]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 151709
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1209 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1155 AM TSTM WND DMG LIBERTY 39.88N 91.11W
05/15/2007 ADAMS IL TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED 30 FOOT TREE BROKEN IN HALF.

&&

$$

SR

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KLSX [151704]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 151704
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1204 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1155 AM HAIL LIBERTY 39.88N 91.11W
05/15/2007 E0.75 INCH ADAMS IL TRAINED SPOTTER

EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS ALSO REPORTED.

&&

$$

SR

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KLSX [151702]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 151702
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1202 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1140 AM HAIL PAYSON 39.82N 91.24W
05/15/2007 E0.75 INCH ADAMS IL EMERGENCY MNGR

1145 AM TSTM WND DMG 1 N PAYSON 39.83N 91.24W
05/15/2007 ADAMS IL EMERGENCY MNGR

ROOF OF BARN BLOWN OFF.

&&

$$

SR

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KSHV [151656]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 151656
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1156 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1140 AM HAIL 8 S PROVENCAL 31.54N 93.20W
05/15/2007 E1.00 INCH NATCHITOCHES LA TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

03

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KSGF [151650]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected Time Of Event

NWUS53 KSGF 151650 CCA
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED TIME OF EVENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1149 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1135 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 S BOIS D'ARC 37.21N 93.51W
05/15/2007 GREENE MO PUBLIC

LARGE OAK TREE BLOWN DOWN

&&

$$

MTERRY

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KSGF [151649]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 151649
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1149 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1148 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 S BOIS D'ARC 37.21N 93.51W
05/15/2007 GREENE MO PUBLIC

LARGE OAK TREE BLOWN DOWN

&&

$$

MTERRY

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 274...resent

WWUS20 KWNS 151604
SEL4
SPC WW 151604
ILZ000-MOZ000-152300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 274...RESENT
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL ILLINOIS
EASTERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1105 AM UNTIL 600
PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF PEORIA ILLINOIS TO 45 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF VICHY
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD...LOOSELY ORGANIZED...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS AIR MASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE. SHEAR WILL
REMAIN MODEST...BUT SHOULD STILL SUPPORT MULTICELL ORGANIZATION BY
LATER TODAY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER CORES...WITH THREAT INCREASING AS STORMS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25020.

..EVANS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0803

ACUS11 KWNS 151630
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151630
ARZ000-MOZ000-151800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0803
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SW MO...NW AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 151630Z - 151800Z

A THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS SW
MO AND NW AR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.

16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT POSITIONED FROM FAR ERN IA
SSWWD ACROSS WCNTRL MO INTO NE OK. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE LOWER 60S F AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS THE STEEPEST
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE SPRINGFIELD AREA
WHERE 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES LOCALLY EXCEED 8.0 C/K. IN ADDITION...THE
12Z SPRINGFIELD MO SOUNDING HAS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH 500
MB TEMPS AROUND -14C. THESE FACTORS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
THREAT FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES DECREASE SWD ACROSS SW MO INTO NE
AR. FOR THIS REASON...STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.

.BROYLES.. 05/15/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...

35479170 35149332 35759439 36509450 37179432 37689358
37719207 36749123

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KSGF [151630]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 151630
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1130 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1127 AM HAIL 7 N SPRINGFIELD 37.30N 93.29W
05/15/2007 E0.88 INCH GREENE MO TRAINED SPOTTER

INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 13 AND FM 36 DIME TO NICKEL SIZE
HAIL.

&&

$$

MTERRY

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KSGF [151628]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 151628
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1128 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1127 AM HAIL 6 NE WILLARD 37.37N 93.35W
05/15/2007 M1.00 INCH GREENE MO NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

MTERRY

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151626
SWODY1
SPC AC 151624

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

VALID 151630Z - 161200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM AR INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/NEW ENGLAND...

..OZARKS/MID SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...
SUNSHINE WILL BE ABUNDANT AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD
FRONT/PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE OZARKS/MID MS
RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...ADVECTION AND
DOWNWARD MIXING IS BOOSTING SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S
FROM AR INTO NRN/WRN IL AS OF 15Z. CONTINUED MIXING MAY LIMIT
FURTHER MOISTENING OR EVEN SUPPORT SOME DRYING NEAR THE SURFACE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
HEATING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
ACROSS THIS REGION BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT AND ADDED DEEP ASCENT AHEAD OF SLOW
MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE
INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINES WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN 20-30
KT. HOWEVER...STRONGER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT GREATER ORGANIZATION
AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS INTO LOWER MI. A LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL
BE THE WEAK CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AS SURFACE WINDS
CONTINUE TO VEER ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. THIS SHOULD ALSO LIMIT LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AND RESULTANT TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MINIMAL. HOWEVER...THE THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL
SLOWLY RAMP-UP THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. AS
ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED LATER TODAY...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
PERSIST THIS EVENING INTO OH RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS.

..LOWER GREAT LAKES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND...
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK EWD ACROSS SRN ONTARIO TODAY AS
WARM FRONT BECOMES ESTABLISHED E-W ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND INTO SRN
NEW ENGLAND. SOME CONCERNS THIS MORNING REGARDING EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS OVER ERN MA INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH MAY RETARD
HEATING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CLEARING SKIES WILL SPREAD
EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY DRY SURFACE LAYER IS
ADDITIONAL CONCERN...THOUGH DOWNWARD MIXING AND ADVECTION SHOULD
ALLOW SURFACE DEW POINTS TO INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS
SRN/CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO AT LEAST WRN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BY LATER TODAY ACROSS THIS
REGION...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLY SPREADING QUICKLY EWD OUT
OF ONTARIO. DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND VERY STRONG SHEAR SUPPORT A THREAT OF ORGANIZED LINES AND
POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.

..FAR SWRN TX INTO WRN NEW MEXICO...
RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL OFFSET MODEST SURFACE
DEW POINTS ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT MARGINAL TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY WEST OF SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING SWD OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS OF WEST TX/ERN NM. THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODEST AT 25-35 KT...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A THREAT OF HAIL/WIND NEAR SEVERE
LEVELS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

..LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/FAR ERN AND NRN TX/SRN OK/SRN AR...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE OVERSPREAD BY RELATIVELY COOL MID
LEVEL AIR IN PLACE OVER THIS REGION TODAY. LAPSE RATES ARE AGAIN
QUITE STEEP AND SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY BY THE
MID AFTERNOON. THOUGH ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN QUITE
DISORGANIZED...BRIEF HAIL/WIND EVENTS EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS WILL
BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WEAK CONVERGENCE SHOULD KEEP
ACTIVITY LESS FOCUSED THAN YESTERDAY AND WILL OPT TO KEEP LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES ATTM.

.EVANS/GRAMS.. 05/15/2007

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 274

WWUS20 KWNS 151604
SEL4
SPC WW 151604
ILZ000-MOZ000-152300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 274
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL ILLINOIS
EASTERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1105 AM UNTIL 600
PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF PEORIA ILLINOIS TO 45 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF VICHY
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD...LOOSELY ORGANIZED...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS AIR MASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE. SHEAR WILL
REMAIN MODEST...BUT SHOULD STILL SUPPORT MULTICELL ORGANIZATION BY
LATER TODAY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER CORES...WITH THREAT INCREASING AS STORMS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25020.

..EVANS

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KCYS [151540]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 151540 CCA
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
351 PM MDT MON MAY 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 PM HAIL 10 S CHUGWATER 41.61N 104.82W
05/14/2007 E0.75 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL WAS MARBLE TO PENNY SIZE.

&&

$$

DDEAL

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KDDC [151431]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 151431
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
931 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0150 AM HAIL 4 N HUDSON 38.16N 98.66W
05/15/2007 E1.00 INCH STAFFORD KS CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

BURKE

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KDDC [151430]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 151430
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
930 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

&&

$$

BURKE

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KLCH [151335]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KLCH 151335
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
833 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0201 PM HAIL STEPHENSVILLE 29.78N 91.17W
05/14/2007 M0.75 INCH ST. MARTIN LA PUBLIC

0205 PM HAIL 3 E ABBEVILLE 29.97N 92.07W
05/14/2007 E0.88 INCH VERMILION LA BROADCAST MEDIA

REPORTED BY TV 10 IN LAFAYETTE.

0320 PM HAIL 2 WNW SCOTT 30.25N 92.12W
05/14/2007 E0.75 INCH LAFAYETTE LA NWS EMPLOYEE

OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE TRAVELLING WEST ON I-10 REPORTED
DIME SIZED HAIL WEST OF SCOTT.

0341 PM HAIL CHARENTON 29.87N 91.54W
05/14/2007 M0.88 INCH ST. MARY LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

REPORTED BY THE CHITIMACHA PD.

0500 PM TSTM WND GST 6 S LAKE CHARLES 30.12N 93.20W
05/14/2007 M66.00 MPH CALCASIEU LA ASOS

LCH ASOS REPORTED 57 KNOT WIND GUST. 3/4 INCH HAIL
OCCURRED A FEW MINUTES LATER.

0500 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 S LAKE CHARLES 30.12N 93.20W
05/14/2007 CALCASIEU LA OTHER FEDERAL

66 MPH WIND GUST FLIPPED A CESSNA OVER AND TURNED A
CITATION JET AROUND ON THE RAMP AT LAKE CHARLES REGIONAL
AIRPORT.

0515 PM HAIL WASHINGTON 30.62N 92.06W
05/14/2007 M0.88 INCH ST. LANDRY LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

0530 PM TSTM WND DMG MOREAUVILLE 31.03N 91.98W
05/14/2007 AVOYELLES LA PUBLIC

TREE REPORTED DOWN. ALSO REPORTED 3 INCH RAINFALL.

0600 PM HAIL SULPHUR 30.23N 93.36W
05/14/2007 M1.00 INCH CALCASIEU LA NWS EMPLOYEE

A JACKSON MS NWS EMPLOYEE IN SULPHUR REPORTED NICKEL TO
QUARTER SIZE HAIL NEAR MAPLEWOOD AND CITY SERVICE HWY.

&&

$$

13

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KOAX [151335]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KOAX 151335
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
834 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM HAIL 7 SW HERMAN 41.60N 96.31W
05/14/2007 M0.75 INCH WASHINGTON NE PUBLIC

0640 PM TSTM WND GST 13 SW SEWARD 40.78N 97.27W
05/14/2007 E70.00 MPH SEWARD NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEMI TRUCK/TRAILER JACK-KNIFED ALONG I-80 NEAR EXIT 366.

0650 PM HAIL GOEHNER 40.83N 97.22W
05/14/2007 M1.75 INCH SEWARD NE FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

0653 PM HAIL TAMORA 40.90N 97.22W
05/14/2007 M1.75 INCH SEWARD NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

0705 PM HAIL SEWARD 40.91N 97.10W
05/14/2007 M0.88 INCH SEWARD NE TRAINED SPOTTER

0721 PM HAIL MALCOLM 40.91N 96.87W
05/14/2007 M1.75 INCH LANCASTER NE AMATEUR RADIO

0729 PM HAIL GARLAND 40.94N 96.99W
05/14/2007 E1.00 INCH SEWARD NE EMERGENCY MNGR

0751 PM HAIL 5 NNE RAYMOND 41.02N 96.74W
05/14/2007 M0.75 INCH LANCASTER NE AMATEUR RADIO

0751 PM HAIL 2 N RAYMOND 40.99N 96.78W
05/14/2007 E0.75 INCH LANCASTER NE TRAINED SPOTTER

0810 PM HAIL WAVERLY 40.91N 96.53W
05/14/2007 E0.88 INCH LANCASTER NE NWS EMPLOYEE

0810 PM HAIL WAVERLY 40.91N 96.53W
05/14/2007 M0.75 INCH LANCASTER NE TRAINED SPOTTER

0851 PM HAIL FAIRBURY 40.14N 97.18W
05/14/2007 E0.75 INCH JEFFERSON NE EMERGENCY MNGR

BRIEF PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL.

&&

$$

RC

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151258
SWODY1
SPC AC 151256

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OZARKS/MID MS VLY E/NE
INTO CNTRL NEW ENGLAND...

..SYNOPSIS...
WRN RIDGE/GRT LKS TROUGH PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD...WITH
SOME AMPLIFICATION EXPECTED OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN STATES. LEAD
IMPULSE WITH GRT LKS SYSTEM HAS BECOME ABSORBED IN CONFLUENT FLOW
OVER LK HURON/GEORGIAN BAY...BUT WILL SERVE TO STRENGTHEN DEEP WLY
FLOW ACROSS THE LWR GRT LKS/NEW ENGLAND. FARTHER W...SATELLITE AND
VWP DATA SHOW AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE NOW CROSSING SD/NEB...AND A
STRONGER FEATURE DROPPING SE INTO ACROSS MANITOBA. TOGETHER THESE
TWO DISTURBANCES WILL SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH
OVER THE LAKES...AND WILL DISPLACE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL COOLING/
ASCENT WWD AWAY FROM GREATEST LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION OVER THE UPR
OH VLY/NORTHEAST.

AT LOWER LEVELS...ELONGATED SFC WAVE EXPECTED TO RIPPLE E ALONG
STATIONARY FRONT INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY...WHILE TRAILING
COLD FRONT SETTLES FARTHER SE INTO THE PLNS/MID MS VLY. A NEW SFC
WAVE SHOULD EVOLVE OVER SE LWR MI OR SW ONTARIO TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS UPR TROUGH AMPLIFIES. THE LOW SHOULD REACH THE
BUIF/ROC AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..OZARKS NE INTO THE LWR GRT LKS/NEW ENGLAND...
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR IN WARM SECTOR FROM THE OZARKS
NE INTO MI AND THE LWR GRT LKS. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN MODEST BY MAY STANDARDS...STRONG HEATING WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S TO LOW 60S SHOULD YIELD SBCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG FROM IL INTO
THE UPR OH VLY. MORE APPRECIABLE MOISTURE MAY YIELD GREATER
INSTABILITY IN THE OZARKS...WHERE SBCAPE COULD APPROACH 2000 J/KG.

SCTD AREAS OF ONGOING STORMS FROM OK/KS INTO IL ARE BEING DRIVEN
MAINLY BY COLD POOL/FRONTAL UPLIFT. THEY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
MIDDAY AND MAY POSE AN OCCASIONAL RISK FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.

THESE STORMS...AND ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY LIKELY TO FORM ALONG/AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT...SHOULD STRENGTHEN WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. POSITIVE
TILT TO AMPLIFYING UPR SYSTEM WILL KEEP STRONGEST LIFT/DEEP SHEAR
DISPLACED LARGELY W OF GREATEST SFC HEATING. SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR
WILL NEVERTHELESS BE PRESENT IN IL/IND AND LWR MI TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZATION INTO LINES. DEEP...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW FLOW AND
RELATIVELY LARGE T/TD SPREADS IN THIS REGION MAY SUPPORT BOWING
SEGMENTS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY COULD REACH WRN/NRN OH BY LATE IN THE DAY AND PERSIST
INTO THE NIGHT S/E INTO THE OH VLY. FARTHER S... MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CAPE AND WEAKER SHEAR LIKELY WILL YIELD MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH A
THREAT FOR BOTH WIND AND HAIL. ISOLATED PULSE STORMS MAY EXTEND S
INTO LA.

OTHER STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG W-E
STATIONARY FRONT FROM UPSTATE NY INTO CNTRL NEW ENGLAND. WHILE CAPE
WILL BE MORE LIMITED RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER SW...40-50 KT DEEP
WLY SHEAR PARALLEL TO BOUNDARY SUGGESTS POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW
SUSTAINED STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS WITH WIND/HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO.

..SRN RCKYS INTO FAR W TX...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WWD IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT
MOVING S ACROSS ERN NM. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
MODEST...COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW WITH SFC HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD STRONG DIURNAL STORMS. WEAK /20 KT/ WNWLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUSTAINED/ POSSIBLY
WEAKLY-ROTATING CELLS WITH HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND. THESE MAY
CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS THAT LINGER INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

..S FL...
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME MORE DEEPLY MARITIME ACROSS S FL
TODAY...ALTHOUGH WV IMAGERY DEPICTS CONTINUING PRESENCE OF
ELONGATING UPR TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS. ELY LWR-TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW SHOULD ONCE AGAIN FOCUS STRONGEST CONVERGENCE ALONG W CST SEA
BREEZE FRONT...WHERE A FEW PULSE SVR STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE.

.CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 05/15/2007

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KSJT [151254]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 151254
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
754 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0820 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 W BRONTE 31.89N 100.31W
05/06/2007 COKE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED AT LEAST ONE FOOT OF WATER OVER
HIGHWAY 158 WEST OF BRONTE.

&&

$$

JMJ

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KSJT [151250]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 151250
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
750 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0820 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 N CARLSBAD 31.59N 100.63W
05/06/2007 TOM GREEN TX TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED WATER OVER THE EAST CARLSBAD
LOOP. BARRICADES UP.

&&

$$

JMJ

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KSJT [151240]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 151240
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
740 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 N GRAPE CREEK 31.58N 100.56W
05/08/2007 TOM GREEN TX PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED WATER IN HOUSE FROM FLASH FLOODING. VERY
HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME CAUSED OVERLAND FLOW
TO CAUSE WATER TO RISE INTO HOME.

&&

$$

JBRAZZEL

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KARX [151026]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KARX 151026
LSRARX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
526 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0642 PM TSTM WND GST LA CROSSE 43.83N 91.23W
05/14/2007 M54.00 MPH LA CROSSE WI ASOS

0645 PM TSTM WND DMG ONALASKA 43.89N 91.22W
05/14/2007 LA CROSSE WI BROADCAST MEDIA

ROOF BLOWN OFF A WAREHOUSE

0645 PM TSTM WND DMG LA CROSSE 43.83N 91.23W
05/14/2007 LA CROSSE WI BROADCAST MEDIA

TREE BRANCHES DOWN. SEVERAL REPORTS OF POWER LINES DOWN
THROUGHOUT THE CITY.

0650 PM HAIL KENDALLVILLE 43.43N 92.03W
05/14/2007 E1.00 INCH WINNESHIEK IA PUBLIC

0650 PM TSTM WND DMG KENDALLVILLE 43.43N 92.03W
05/14/2007 WINNESHIEK IA PUBLIC

CATTLE SHED DOWN

0650 PM TSTM WND DMG CRESCO 43.37N 92.12W
05/14/2007 HOWARD IA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN THE TOWN OF CRESCO

0700 PM TSTM WND DMG CALEDONIA 43.63N 91.50W
05/14/2007 HOUSTON MN TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED WIND DAMAGE TO THEIR MOBILE HOME ON
HONEYSUCKLE LANE. SIDING WAS RIPPED OFF AND OVERHANG
OUTSIDE FRONT DOOR WAS SEVERELY DAMAGED WHICH PREVENTED
DOOR FROM BEING OPENED.

0700 PM DOWNBURST CALEDONIA 43.63N 91.50W
05/14/2007 HOUSTON MN BROADCAST MEDIA

WXOW CHANNEL 19 REPORTED WIND DAMAGE TO THE CALEDONIA
ELEMENTARY SCHOOL/S ROOF

0702 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 S NEILLSVILLE 44.52N 90.59W
05/14/2007 CLARK WI LAW ENFORCEMENT

LARGE TREE DOWN OVER A ROAD

0714 PM TSTM WND GST 3 SSW SPRING GROVE 43.52N 91.66W
05/14/2007 M63.00 MPH HOUSTON MN TRAINED SPOTTER

NO REPORT OF DAMAGE

0743 PM TSTM WND GST GENOA 43.57N 91.23W
05/14/2007 M51.00 MPH VERNON WI LAW ENFORCEMENT

0750 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 SW DECORAH 43.30N 91.81W
05/14/2007 WINNESHIEK IA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES SNAPPED OFF

1030 PM TSTM WND DMG FARMERSBURG 42.96N 91.37W
05/14/2007 CLAYTON IA LAW ENFORCEMENT

LARGE TREE AND A SMALL TREE BLOWN DOWN

1035 PM HAIL STRAWBERRY POINT 42.68N 91.54W
05/14/2007 E0.75 INCH CLAYTON IA PUBLIC

1035 PM TSTM WND GST STRAWBERRY POINT 42.68N 91.54W
05/14/2007 E60.00 MPH CLAYTON IA PUBLIC

1050 PM TSTM WND GST ELKPORT 42.74N 91.28W
05/14/2007 E65.00 MPH CLAYTON IA PUBLIC

DOWNED TREE LIMBS

1100 PM TSTM WND GST OSTERDOCK 42.73N 91.16W
05/14/2007 M67.00 MPH CLAYTON IA PUBLIC

1142 PM HAIL 1 N LIVINGSTON 42.92N 90.43W
05/14/2007 E0.25 INCH GRANT WI EMERGENCY MNGR

MEASURED 22 MPH WINDS AND PEA SIZE HAIL

&&

$$

BOYNE

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KMQT [150852]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KMQT 150852
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
452 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0155 PM HAIL 1 WSW ISHPEMING 46.48N 87.68W
05/14/2007 M0.75 INCH MARQUETTE MI NWS EMPLOYEE

0200 PM HAIL ISHPEMING 46.49N 87.66W
05/14/2007 E1.25 INCH MARQUETTE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

0203 PM HAIL ISHPEMING 46.49N 87.66W
05/14/2007 M1.25 INCH MARQUETTE MI NWS EMPLOYEE

0206 PM HAIL ISHPEMING 46.49N 87.66W
05/14/2007 E1.00 INCH MARQUETTE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

0208 PM HAIL NEGAUNEE 46.50N 87.60W
05/14/2007 E0.88 INCH MARQUETTE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

0209 PM HAIL NATIONAL MINE 46.45N 87.68W
05/14/2007 M1.25 INCH MARQUETTE MI NWS EMPLOYEE

0210 PM HAIL 1 SE NEGAUNEE 46.49N 87.58W
05/14/2007 E3.00 INCH MARQUETTE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

MOSTLY HALF INCH TO INCH AND A HALF INCH HAIL...BUT A FEW
HAILSTONES WERE 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND SHATTERED CAR
WINDOWS.

0212 PM HAIL NEGAUNEE 46.50N 87.60W
05/14/2007 E0.88 INCH MARQUETTE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

0230 PM HAIL HARVEY 46.49N 87.35W
05/14/2007 E0.88 INCH MARQUETTE MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

0249 PM HAIL 2 E SHOT POINT 46.51N 87.12W
05/14/2007 E0.75 INCH LSZ246 MI PUBLIC

0300 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 28 ESE KEWEENAW POINT 47.18N 87.22W
05/14/2007 M41.00 MPH LSZ264 MI C-MAN STATION

0442 PM HAIL 7 NNE NEWBERRY 46.45N 85.45W
05/14/2007 E1.25 INCH LUCE MI PUBLIC

HALF INCH TO INCH AND A QUARTER DIAMETER SIZED HAIL
COVERED THE GROUND.

0742 PM HAIL 4 SE IRONWOOD 46.40N 90.10W
05/14/2007 E0.75 INCH GOGEBIC MI TRAINED SPOTTER

SOME PENNY AND MOSTLY DIME SIZE HAIL

0750 PM HAIL 1 N BESSEMER 46.49N 90.05W
05/14/2007 E0.88 INCH GOGEBIC MI PUBLIC

DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL

0810 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 N REPUBLIC 46.44N 87.98W
05/14/2007 MARQUETTE MI NWS EMPLOYEE

7 INCH TREE BLOWN DOWN ONTO GUARDRAIL ON M-95

0810 PM HAIL 3 S MARENISCO 46.34N 89.68W
05/14/2007 E0.75 INCH GOGEBIC MI PUBLIC

HAIL ESTIMATED AS PENNY SIZED.

0810 PM HAIL MARENISCO 46.38N 89.68W
05/14/2007 E0.88 INCH GOGEBIC MI TRAINED SPOTTER

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH

0825 PM HAIL WSW SANDS 46.42N 87.41W
05/14/2007 E0.88 INCH MARQUETTE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

MOSTLY DIME...BUT A FEW NICKEL SIZE HAIL

0827 PM HAIL 2 NNW THOUSAND ISLAND L 46.25N 89.41W
05/14/2007 E1.00 INCH GOGEBIC MI TRAINED SPOTTER

PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL

0834 PM TSTM WND GST 6 NNE GWINN 46.37N 87.39W
05/14/2007 M70.00 MPH MARQUETTE MI OTHER FEDERAL

REPORTED BY KSAW TOWER. PEA SIZE HAIL.

0922 PM HAIL IRON RIVER 46.10N 88.64W
05/14/2007 E1.00 INCH IRON MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

0954 PM TSTM WND GST 2 W IRON MOUNTAIN 45.83N 88.10W
05/14/2007 M51.00 MPH DICKINSON MI ASOS

1005 PM TSTM WND GST NORWAY 45.80N 87.91W
05/14/2007 E60.00 MPH DICKINSON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

5 INCH TREE LIMB DOWN

1223 AM TSTM WND DMG MENOMINEE 45.12N 87.62W
05/15/2007 MENOMINEE MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

TOP OF A PINE TREE FELL ON A CAR ON 48TH AVE ALONG NORTH
CITY LIMITS OF MENOMINEE.

&&

$$

MRC/JLA

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 150839
SWOD48
SPC AC 150839

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

VALID 181200Z - 231200Z

..DISCUSSION...

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO
DAY5...SATURDAY...THEN SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH. LATEST DATA FROM THE ECMWF IS
NOTABLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH UPPER JET DIGGING INTO THE 4-CORNERS
REGION BY 22/12Z. GFS ALLOWS UPPER TROUGH TO SHIFT EAST ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WITH STRONGEST FLOW SPREADING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
ND INTO ONTARIO. NEEDLESS TO SAY...SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCY BEYOND
DAY5 WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE OUTLOOK ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.DARROW.. 05/15/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0802

ACUS11 KWNS 150802
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150802
MIZ000-150930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0802
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL LWR MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 150802Z - 150930Z

STRONG TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED RECENTLY NORTH OF THE KGRR VCNTY. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE MECHANICS OF THE INITIATION GIVEN THE
SEEMINGLY LACK OF OVERALL UPR SUPPORT AND SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL
BOUNDARIES. VWP FROM KGRR DOES SHOW A STRONG WSWLY LLJ OF 65 KTS IN
THE 0.5-1KM LAYER... RESULTING IN MODEST WARM ADVECTION...SO
THINKING IS THAT MORE STORMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF CNTRL
LWR MI THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE
AS COOLER OUTFLOW WINDS SPREAD SEWD FROM NWRN LWR MI.

LOW AND MID-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WOULD SUGGEST THAT A STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT WAS BEING ADVECTED NEWD AHEAD OF THE ELONGATED FRONT N
OF THE REGION. THUS...UPDRAFTS WILL TEND TO BE STRONG AND COULD
ORGANIZE INTO PULSE-TYPE SVR CLUSTERS WITH LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS
HIGH WINDS. MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE INFLUX IS NOT OPTIMUM FOR
WIDESPREAD SVR STORMS...HOWEVER...WITH UPSTREAM SOURCE REGION PWAT
VALUES AROUND AN INCH. NONETHELESS...A SUSTAINED STORM MAY YIELD
SPORADIC SVR THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN THE OVERALL FAVORABLE
CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR.

IF ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND/OR INCREASE IN COVERAGE...A
WW MAY BE POSSIBLE.

.RACY.. 05/15/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

43568604 44158509 44358422 44158324 43758308 43338376
43118496 42958587

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KGRB [150758]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KGRB 150758
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
257 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0703 PM TSTM WND DMG PRESQUE ISLE 46.25N 89.73W
05/14/2007 VILAS WI PUBLIC

12 TO 14 INCH TREE BROKE

0740 PM HAIL LAND O LAKES 46.16N 89.23W
05/14/2007 M0.88 INCH VILAS WI PUBLIC

0743 PM TSTM WND GST LAND O LAKES 46.16N 89.23W
05/14/2007 M43.00 MPH VILAS WI AWOS

0800 PM TSTM WND DMG PHELPS 46.06N 89.08W
05/14/2007 VILAS WI LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL TREES DOWN FROM CONOVER TO PHELPS.

0815 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 SSE ALVIN 45.93N 88.76W
05/14/2007 FOREST WI LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN BETWEEN ALVIN AND NEWALD.

0823 PM HAIL 1 NW BABCOCK 44.30N 90.14W
05/14/2007 E0.75 INCH WOOD WI PUBLIC

PENNY HAIL NORTHWEST OF TOWN.

0826 PM HAIL BABCOCK 44.29N 90.13W
05/14/2007 E0.50 INCH WOOD WI LAW ENFORCEMENT

0840 PM TSTM WND DMG 7 E BABCOCK 44.29N 89.99W
05/14/2007 WOOD WI LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAYS IN SOUTHERN WOOD CO.

0855 PM HAIL WISCONSIN RAPIDS 44.40N 89.84W
05/14/2007 M0.88 INCH WOOD WI AMATEUR RADIO

0900 PM HAIL JUNCTION CITY 44.58N 89.75W
05/14/2007 E0.50 INCH PORTAGE WI AMATEUR RADIO

HAIL SLIGHTLY LARGER THAN 1/2 INCH.

1018 PM HAIL MERRILL 45.18N 89.68W
05/14/2007 E0.25 INCH LINCOLN WI TRAINED SPOTTER

1115 PM TSTM WND DMG 7 W MARINETTE 45.09N 87.75W
05/14/2007 MARINETTE WI LAW ENFORCEMENT

CAMPER TIPPED OVER, 4 FT DIAMETER TREE DOWN

0130 AM HAIL APPLETON 44.26N 88.40W
05/15/2007 E0.50 INCH OUTAGAMIE WI LAW ENFORCEMENT

DIME SIZE HAIL AT INTERSECTION OF 76 AND BREEZEWOOD.

&&

$$

ECKBERG

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 150719
SWODY3
SPC AC 150717

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..4-CORNERS...SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES...

SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN DEEP SELY FLOW
ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FAVOR
MOISTURE GRADUALLY SPREADING NNWWD ACROSS NM INTO THE 4-CORNERS
REGION...MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR DEEP CONVECTION BENEATH WEAK FLOW
REGIME. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN DAYTIME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY AIDED BY WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
BROAD BACKGROUND SUPPORT FOR DEEP CONVECTION SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR WIND/HAIL AT THIS TIME.

..FL...

00Z SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT REGARDING SFC
CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH-EAST OF THE FL PENINSULA LATER THIS WEEK.
WHETHER THE ACTUAL LOW IS OVER CUBA...AS THE GFS PREDICTS...OR WELL
NE PER THE NAM...AN ELONGATED N-S ZONE OF CONVERGENCE SHOULD BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE PENINSULA BENEATH WEAK UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW.
ANY HEATING INLAND WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL. IN FACT...IT APPEARS DAY3 MAY BE
CONVECTIVELY-ACTIVE ACROSS MOST OF THE PENINSULA. SOME HAIL/WIND
COULD ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. WILL HOLD PROBABILITIES LOW AT THIS
TIME DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY/SHEAR.

.DARROW.. 05/15/2007

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KGRB [150646]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 150646
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
146 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 AM HAIL APPLETON 44.26N 88.40W
05/15/2007 E0.50 INCH OUTAGAMIE WI LAW ENFORCEMENT

DIME SIZE HAIL AT INTERSECTION OF 76 AND BREEZEWOOD.

&&

$$

TH

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