KPDT [210245]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPDT 210245
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
745 PM PDT SAT OCT 20 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0735 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 WNW CITY OF THE DALLE 45.61N 121.21W
10/20/2012 M55 MPH WASCO OR TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER MENTIONED HEAVY RAIN WAS ALSO BEGINNING TO FALL.


&&

$$

JJSMITH

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 210058
SWODY1
SPC AC 210056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012

VALID 210100Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...PACIFIC NW COAST...
SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOULD PERSIST TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WITHIN A STEEP LAPSE RATE AND SCANTILY
BUOYANT AIR MASS.

..GRAMS.. 10/21/2012

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KSEW [210057]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 210057
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
557 PM PDT SAT OCT 20 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0556 PM HAIL 1 ESE ANACORTES 48.49N 122.60W
10/20/2012 E0.25 INCH SKAGIT WA TRAINED SPOTTER

OBSERVER SAYS THE HAIL IS AROUND A QUARTER INCH...MAYBE A
LITTLE BIT BIGGER. ALMOST AN INCH ACCUMULATION ON THE
GROUND.

0557 PM HAIL ANACORTES 48.49N 122.63W
10/20/2012 M0.25 INCH SKAGIT WA TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

GRUB

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KSEW [202329]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 202329
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
429 PM PDT SAT OCT 20 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0406 PM WATER SPOUT 1 SW MARYSVILLE 48.05N 122.17W
10/20/2012 SNOHOMISH WA 911 CALL CENTER

911 CALL CENTER FOR SNOHOMISH COUNTY RECEIVED 2 REPORTS
OF A WATERSPOUT AROUND THE VICINITY OF HAT ISLAND.
REPORTS STATED THAT SPOUT TOUCHED DOWN ON THE WATER FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD...THEN DISSAPATED. THEN IT REFORMED BRIEFLY
AND DISSAPATED AGAIN.

0405 PM WATER SPOUT CLINTON 47.98N 122.35W
10/20/2012 ISLAND WA PUBLIC

PERSON SAW WATERSPOUT ABOUT A QUARTER TO HALF MILE
NORTHEAST OF HAT ISLAND. WATERSPOUT TOUCHED DOWN FOR 30
SECONDS THEN DISSAPATED. REFORMED AGAIN FOR ABOUT 10 TO
15 SECONDS THEN DISSAPATED AGAIN. WATER CHURNED WHERE THE
SPOUT WAS FOR A FEW MINUTES...NOW IS GONE.


&&

$$

GRUB

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KBTV [202206]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KBTV 202206
LSRBTV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
605 PM EDT SAT OCT 20 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0413 PM HAIL PLATTSBURGH 44.70N 73.45W
10/20/2012 E0.25 INCH CLINTON NY PUBLIC

0528 PM HAIL SHELBURNE 44.38N 73.23W
10/20/2012 E0.25 INCH CHITTENDEN VT TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1200437 BTV1200438

$$

NF

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KSEW [202159]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 202159
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
259 PM PDT SAT OCT 20 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0258 PM HAIL 3 S LAKE CAVANAUGH 48.28N 122.02W
10/20/2012 M0.25 INCH SNOHOMISH WA TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL SIZE WAS AROUND AN EIGHTH OF AN INCH. DEPTH ON THE
GROUND IS ABOUT AN INCH. HAIL ENDED AROUND 250 PM. TEMP
DROPPED TO 39 DEGREES.


&&

$$

GRUB

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KSEW [202126]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 202126
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
226 PM PDT SAT OCT 20 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0215 PM HAIL ALLYN 47.39N 122.83W
10/20/2012 E0.25 INCH MASON WA TRAINED SPOTTER

OBSERVER SAYS THE PRECIPITATION IS LIKE ICE PELLETS AND
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.


&&

$$

GRUB

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KSEW [202124]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 202124
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
224 PM PDT SAT OCT 20 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0224 PM HAIL SE GIG HARBOR 47.33N 122.59W
10/20/2012 M0.25 INCH PIERCE WA TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

GRUB

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KSEW [202059]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 202059
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
159 PM PDT SAT OCT 20 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0135 PM HAIL 1 SW SHELTON 47.21N 123.11W
10/20/2012 E0.25 INCH MASON WA TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER ESTIMATES THE HAIL TO BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH



&&

$$

GRUB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 201923
SWODY1
SPC AC 201921

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012

VALID 202000Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.

..JEWELL.. 10/20/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012/

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL LIFT GRADUALLY NEWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST IN ITS WAKE. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PERSIST FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC INLAND ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES BUT
FRONTAL PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SLOW AS STRONGER SHORT
WAVE FORCING REMAINS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE BORDER. WEAKER SRN
STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EWD/NEWD FROM SRN CA TO
THE FOUR CORNERS AND SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

...NW/NE...
COLD CORE SYSTEMS AND AMBIENT BACKGROUND ASCENT IN THE PRESENCE OF
MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND WARMING ACROSS THESE AREAS
COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS. OVERALL
LONGEVITY/COVERAGE APPEARS TO WARRANT NO MORE THAN LOW GENL TSTM
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

...S FL...
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT FRONTAL
INTRUSION WILL COINCIDE WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS PRIMARILY SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

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KBOX [201841]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBOX 201841
LSRBOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
240 PM EDT SAT OCT 20 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0339 AM LIGHTNING COVENTRY 41.68N 71.65W
10/20/2012 KENT RI AMATEUR RADIO

TWO HOUSE FIRES DUE TO LIGHTING. BOTH HOMES DEEMED
UNINHABITABLE


&&

$$

WAS

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KSEW [201736]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 201736
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1036 AM PDT SAT OCT 20 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 AM HAIL S GREENBANK 48.10N 122.57W
10/20/2012 M0.25 INCH ISLAND WA TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL SHOWER OCCURRED BETWEEN 0830 TO 0900.


&&

$$

GRUB

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 201723
SWODY2
SPC AC 201722

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER FAR SWRN TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD SWLY FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL EXIST OVER THE WRN AND CNTRL
U.S. WITH SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS HELPING TO BRING
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE NWD. A SFC TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM THE UPPER
MS VALLEY SWWD TO A WEAK LOW OVER SRN KS AT 00Z...THEN CONTINUING
SWWD INTO WRN TX. OVERNIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF
NRN MEXICO INTO W TX...AND WILL HELP FOCUS NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE. TO THE N...PERSISTENT SLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT MOISTURE NWD INTO IA...WITH A FEW NOCTURNAL STORMS LIKELY
THERE AS WELL.

...SWRN TX OVERNIGHT...
CAPPING WILL EXIST FOR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS SW TX...WITH UPPER
HEIGHT FALLS ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY. LOW TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS
WILL BE LURKING JUST DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...AND WILL RETURN NWWD OVERNIGHT AS 850 MB FLOW INCREASES TO
OVER 20 KT. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
SOME COOLING ALOFT AND LIFT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A STREAK OF
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN 03-06Z SE OF ELP AND SPREADING NEWD
ACROSS THE MAF AREA AFTER 06Z. WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SOME HAIL IS LIKELY. COVERAGE OF
SEVERE IS UNCERTAIN...AS SOME MODELS INDICATE MORE CAPPING PROBLEMS
THAN OTHERS. HOWEVER...GIVEN CONDITIONAL LARGE HAIL THREAT...WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK.

...IA...NRN MO...WRN IL...ERN NEB AND FAR NERN KS...
INCREASING LIFT WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN A RASH OF ELEVATED CONVECTION AFTER 03Z...MOST LIKELY
CENTERED OVER IA AND NRN MO. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE CONTENT SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL.

..JEWELL.. 10/20/2012

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 201633
SWODY1
SPC AC 201631

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012

VALID 201630Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL LIFT GRADUALLY NEWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST IN ITS WAKE. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PERSIST FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC INLAND ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES BUT
FRONTAL PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SLOW AS STRONGER SHORT
WAVE FORCING REMAINS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE BORDER. WEAKER SRN
STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EWD/NEWD FROM SRN CA TO
THE FOUR CORNERS AND SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

...NW/NE...
COLD CORE SYSTEMS AND AMBIENT BACKGROUND ASCENT IN THE PRESENCE OF
MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND WARMING ACROSS THESE AREAS
COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS. OVERALL
LONGEVITY/COVERAGE APPEARS TO WARRANT NO MORE THAN LOW GENL TSTM
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

...S FL...
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT FRONTAL
INTRUSION WILL COINCIDE WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS PRIMARILY SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

..CARBIN.. 10/20/2012

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 201151
SWODY1
SPC AC 201149

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 AM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012

VALID 201300Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

A RATHER QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NATION
TODAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOCUSED IN A FEW SMALL AREAS.

...NY/NEW ENGLAND...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO PARTS OF NY/VT/NH/ME.
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THIS REGION WILL
PROMOTE A RISK OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
HOWEVER...MEAGER MOISTURE AND WEAK CAPE VALUES SUGGEST THE RISK OF
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IS QUITE LOW.

OTHERWISE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER SOUTH
FL...SOUTHWEST TX...AND THE WA/ORE COAST. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.

..HART/BOTHWELL.. 10/20/2012

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 200852
SWOD48
SPC AC 200851

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012

VALID 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
00Z ECMWF/GEFS/UKMET IMPLY THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT
DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION IS A BIT UNCERTAIN /00Z ECMWF REMAINS LESS
AMPLIFIED VS OTHER GUIDANCE/.

THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE SEVERE POTENTIAL ON DAYS
5-6 WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. AS AN UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT SHIFT EASTWARD
AND ENCOUNTER A RELATIVELY MOIST AUTUMNAL AIRMASS...ORGANIZED SEVERE
TSTMS COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/MIDDLE MO
VALLEY ON DAY 5/WEDNESDAY...AND PERHAPS THE UPPER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY
AND LOWER MO VALLEY ON DAY 6/THURSDAY. WHILE AT LEAST SOME SEVERE
TSTMS ARE PROBABLE ON THESE DAYS PROVIDED SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...GUIDANCE VARIABILITY REGARDING UPPER TROUGH
AMPLITUDE/TIMING PRECLUDES A DELINEATION OF ANY SPECIFIC SEVERE RISK
AREAS AT THIS TIME.

..GUYER.. 10/20/2012

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 200737
SWODY3
SPC AC 200736

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 AM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

CORRECTED FOR TYPO

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG POLAR JET WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE WESTERN STATES AS LARGE
SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION CONTINUES TO OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY. THE
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA MEXICO COAST IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS/MIDDLE MS
VALLEY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS TO MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY...
ALTHOUGH SOME SPATIOTEMPORAL DIFFERENCES EXIST AT THE DAY 3
JUNCTURE...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
STEADILY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.
WHILE A PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...VERTICAL SHEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/MODEST DESTABILIZATION MAY
ACCOUNT FOR AT LEAST SPORADIC WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF OK/NORTH TX TO THE OZARKS.

FARTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY...SCATTERED
ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING. MORNING
HAIL POTENTIAL AFTER 12Z MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL...BUT A FEW
STRONG STORMS MAY NONETHELESS BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS
SUCH AS IA AND THE ADJACENT UPPER MS VALLEY IS UNCERTAIN...AS LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY/MASS CONVERGENCE MAY REMAIN RELATIVELY
WEAK. NONETHELESS...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
A MOIST/MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS NEAR A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND/OR
WARM FRONT.

...COASTAL NORTHERN CA/ORE...
AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION INCLUDING SOME TSTMS IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY THE COASTAL AREAS OF ORE/NORTHERN
CA AND PERHAPS THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT MAY ACCOUNT FOR SOME SMALL HAIL
POTENTIAL...BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

..GUYER.. 10/20/2012

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 200732
SWODY3
SPC AC 200730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG POLAR JET WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE WESTERN STATES AS LARGE
SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION CONTINUES TO OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY. THE
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA MEXICO COAST IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS/MIDDLE MS
VALLEY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS TO MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY...
ALTHOUGH SOME SPATIOTEMPORAL DIFFERENCES EXIST AT THE DAY 3
JUNCTURE...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
STEADILY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.
WHILE A PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...VERTICAL SHEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/MODEST DESTABILIZATION MAY
ACCOUNT FOR AT LEAST SPORADIC WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF OK/NORTH TX TO THE OZARKS.

FARTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY...SCATTERED
ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING. MORNING
HAIL POTENTIAL AFTER 12Z MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL...BUT A FEW
STRONG STORMS MAY NONETHELESS BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
SUBSEQUENT DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS IA AND
THE ADJACENT UPPER MS VALLEY IS UNCERTAIN...AS LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT MAY REMAIN RELATIVELY NEBULOUS. NONETHELESS...AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT MAY BE POSSIBLE WITHIN A MOIST/MODESTLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS NEAR A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND/OR WARM FRONT.

...COASTAL NORTHERN CA/ORE...
AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION INCLUDING SOME TSTMS IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY THE COASTAL AREAS ORE/NORTHERN CA
AND PERHAPS INTO THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT MAY ACCOUNT FOR SOME SMALL HAIL
POTENTIAL...BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

..GUYER.. 10/20/2012

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 200601
SWODY2
SPC AC 200600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OCCURS OVER THE WESTERN STATES
ON SUNDAY...BROAD/RELATIVELY STRONG CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL BE
PREVALENT FOR CONUS AREAS WEST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH
MOISTURE STEADILY RETURNING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
THE LOWER/MIDDLE MO VALLEY DURING THE PERIOD.

...SOUTHERN NM AND WEST/SOUTHWEST TX...
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF BAJA IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AS IT SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD AND REACHES FAR SOUTHERN
NM AND SOUTHWEST TX SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING TSTM POTENTIAL AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
TX...ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND WEAK/MODERATE BUOYANCY...ALONG WITH
STRENGTHENING/VEERING WIND PROFILES...WILL ACCOUNT FOR SOME
SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY
HAZARD.

...CENTRAL PLAINS/MO VALLEY/MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY RETURN ACROSS THE REGION WITH AID
OF A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY. THIS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS
KS AND AN ADJACENT SHARPENING SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE...AND TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/MIDDLE MO
VALLEY.

REGARDING DIURNAL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS SUCH AS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY...THE STRENGTH OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
ALOFT AND RELATIVELY NEBULOUS BROAD SCALE ASCENT SUGGESTS THAT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...SOME POTENTIAL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT NEAR THE CENTRAL PLAINS SURFACE LOW/TROUGH IN THE PRESENCE
OF LOW-LEVEL MIXING/MODEST MASS CONVERGENCE. SHOULD SURFACE BASED
DEVELOPMENT OCCUR WITHIN A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS...SEVERE TSTMS
WOULD BE FAVORABLE GIVEN FAVORABLE BUOYANCY/SHEAR.

A MORE PROBABLE SCENARIO IS FOR ELEVATED TSTMS TO INCREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MO VALLEY/MIDWEST/MIDDLE MS VALLEY WITH
AID OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET/ELEVATED
MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY/SHEAR
THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS.

..GUYER.. 10/20/2012

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KALY [200528]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KALY 200528
LSRALY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 AM EDT SAT OCT 20 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 AM HAIL WARRENSBURG 43.50N 73.78W
10/20/2012 M1.00 INCH WARREN NY TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL HAIL STONES WERE 1 INCH...MOST WERE HALF INCH
SIZE.


&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1200280

$$

BGM

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 200519
SWODY1
SPC AC 200517

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 AM CDT SAT OCT 20 2012

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL FOR DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
TODAY. WARM CONVEYOR BELT-DRIVEN TSTMS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD FORM
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TOWARDS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITHIN A ZONE OF
STRONG MID-LEVEL DCVA IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY
SUFFICIENTLY DEEPEN FOR SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES...BUT WEAK/VEERED
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MEAGER BUOYANCY SHOULD PRECLUDE AN APPRECIABLE
SEVERE RISK.

OTHERWISE...A FEW TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS S FL IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A SWD-SAGGING COLD FRONT. SPARSE LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY ALSO OCCUR
ALONG PARTS OF THE WRN WA COAST AND IN FAR W TX.

..GRAMS.. 10/20/2012

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