KAPX [170350]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 170350
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1150 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1135 PM NON-TSTM WND GST CHARLEVOIX 45.32N 85.26W
10/16/2011 M45 MPH CHARLEVOIX MI AWOS

&&

$$

JZ

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KMQT [170321]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 170321
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1121 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 PM NON-TSTM WND GST FREDA 47.13N 88.82W
10/16/2011 M56.00 MPH HOUGHTON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

RECEIVING SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE HIGH 40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

$$

JMWIX

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KMQT [170305]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KMQT 170305
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1104 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1036 AM NON-TSTM WND GST FREDA 47.13N 88.82W
10/16/2011 M43.00 MPH HOUGHTON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 35 MPH. GUSTING IN THE LOW 40S.

1050 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 41 N COPPER HARBOR 48.06N 87.89W
10/16/2011 M45.00 MPH LSZ264 MI BUOY

0140 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 WNW CALUMET 47.28N 88.53W
10/16/2011 M45.00 MPH HOUGHTON MI C-MAN STATION

0153 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NE HOUGHTON 47.16N 88.49W
10/16/2011 M50.00 MPH HOUGHTON MI ASOS

MEASURED AT HOUGHTON COUNTY AIRPORT KCMX

0208 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NE GRAND MARAIS 46.68N 85.97W
10/16/2011 M60.00 MPH ALGER MI C-MAN STATION

0546 PM NON-TSTM WND GST FREDA 47.13N 88.82W
10/16/2011 M50.00 MPH HOUGHTON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

WINDS SUSTAINED IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
NEAR 50 MPH.

0600 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 8 WSW ONTONAGON 46.82N 89.47W
10/16/2011 ONTONAGON MI PUBLIC

10-INCH DIAMETER MAPLE TREE SNAPPED IN HALF. NO LEAVES ON
TREE.

0800 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 28 ESE KEWEENAW POINT 47.18N 87.22W
10/16/2011 M62.00 MPH LSZ266 MI BUOY

SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH.

0840 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NE GRAND MARAIS 46.68N 85.97W
10/16/2011 M63.00 MPH ALGER MI OTHER FEDERAL

REPORTED AT THE GLOS WEATHER STATION LOCATED ON THE
BREAKWATER AT GRAND MARAIS.

0940 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 WNW CALUMET 47.28N 88.53W
10/16/2011 M53.00 MPH HOUGHTON MI OTHER FEDERAL

REPORTED AT THE GLOS WEATHER STATION LOCATED ON THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORE LINE AT THE PORTAGE CANAL.

&&

$$

JMWIX

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KMQT [170223]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 170223
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1023 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 8 WSW ONTONAGON 46.82N 89.47W
10/16/2011 ONTONAGON MI PUBLIC

10-INCH DIAMETER MAPLE TREE SNAPPED IN HALF. NO LEAVES ON
TREE.

&&

$$

JMWIX

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KMQT [170210]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KMQT 170210
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1010 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0940 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 WNW CALUMET 47.28N 88.53W
10/16/2011 M53.00 MPH HOUGHTON MI OTHER FEDERAL

REPORTED AT THE GLOS WEATHER STATION LOCATED ON THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORE LINE AT THE PORTAGE CANAL.

&&

$$

JMWIX

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KMQT [170208]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 170208
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1008 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0940 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 WNW CALUMET 47.28N 88.53W
10/16/2011 M61.00 MPH HOUGHTON MI OTHER FEDERAL

REPORTED AT THE GLOS WEATHER STATION LOCATED ON THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORE LINE AT THE PORTAGE CANAL.

&&

$$

JMWIX

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KMQT [170106]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 170106
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
906 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0840 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NE GRAND MARAIS 46.68N 85.97W
10/16/2011 M63 MPH ALGER MI OTHER FEDERAL

REPORTED AT THE GLOS WEATHER STATION LOCATED ON THE
BREAKWATER AT GRAND MARAIS.

&&

$$

JMWIX

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170056
SWODY1
SPC AC 170054

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT SUN OCT 16 2011

VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
FOR THE FL KEYS/STRAITS AND FAR SOUTH FL PENINSULA...THE 00Z
OBSERVED KEY WEST FL SOUNDING/RECENT WSR-88D VWP DATA SAMPLE
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR SOME WEAKLY ROTATING UPDRAFTS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SHOWERS/POSSIBLE EMBEDDED TSTMS WITHIN A
MOIST/TROPICAL AIRMASS. HOWEVER...ANY WATERSPOUT/TORNADO THREAT
SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED/LOCALIZED ESPECIALLY GIVEN WEAK LAPSE
RATES/WEAK BUOYANCY...SUCH THAT SEVERE PROBABILITIES DO NOT APPEAR
WARRANTED.

ELSEWHERE...TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON AN ISOLATED BASIS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

..GUYER.. 10/17/2011

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KMQT [170010]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 170010
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
810 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 28 ESE KEWEENAW POINT 47.18N 87.22W
10/16/2011 M62 MPH LSZ266 MI BUOY

SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH.

&&

$$

JMWIX

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KPIH [162346]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 162346
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
546 PM MDT SUN OCT 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0544 PM HAIL 5 W BLACKFOOT 43.20N 112.45W
10/16/2011 E0.75 INCH BINGHAM ID TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

PANGEL

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KPIH [162325]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 162325
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
525 PM MDT SUN OCT 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0524 PM HAIL 1 SSW ROCKFORD 43.17N 112.55W
10/16/2011 M0.50 INCH BINGHAM ID TRAINED SPOTTER

0524 PM HAIL 1 SSE BLACKFOOT 43.18N 112.34W
10/16/2011 M0.50 INCH BINGHAM ID TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

PANGEL

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KPIH [162253]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 162253
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
453 PM MDT SUN OCT 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0452 PM HAIL 1 NW FIRTH 43.32N 112.21W
10/16/2011 M0.50 INCH BINGHAM ID TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

PANGEL

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KMQT [162151]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 162151
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
550 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0546 PM NON-TSTM WND GST FREDA 47.13N 88.82W
10/16/2011 M50 MPH HOUGHTON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

WINDS SUSTAINED IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
NEAR 50 MPH.

&&

$$

JMWIX

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KMFR [162150]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 162150
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
250 PM PDT SUN OCT 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0244 PM HAIL 1 WSW ALTURAS 41.49N 120.56W
10/16/2011 E0.25 INCH MODOC CA TRAINED SPOTTER

VIOLENT TS JUST MOVED THROUGH

0244 PM HAIL ESE ALTURAS 41.49N 120.54W
10/16/2011 E0.88 INCH MODOC CA TRAINED SPOTTER

TS DROPPED 1/4IN OF RAIN IN 15MINS. WINDS REMAINED LGT.
.5-1IN HAIL. CG LTG

&&

$$

MOTTENWE

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KKEY [162122]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 162122
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
521 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0408 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 S BOOT KEY 24.63N 81.11W
10/16/2011 M52 MPH GMZ043 FL C-MAN STATION

THE SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT C-MAN STATION RECORDED A WIND GUST
OF 45 KNOTS ASSOCIATED WITH A RAIN BAND PASSING OVER THE
STATION.

&&

$$

MPARKE

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KAPX [162053]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 162053
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
453 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0449 PM HAIL INDIAN RIVER 45.42N 84.62W
10/16/2011 E0.50 INCH CHEBOYGAN MI TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1100595

$$

JSL

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KMFR [162002]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 162002
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
102 PM PDT SUN OCT 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1243 PM HAIL 2 E TIONESTA 41.65N 121.29W
10/16/2011 E0.50 INCH MODOC CA TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER SAID RATHER INTENSE TS PASSED OVERHEAD DROPPING
HEAVY RAIN AND DIME-SIZED HAIL, ALONG WITH SOME WIND
GUSTS.

&&

$$

MOTTENWE

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KMQT [162001]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 162001
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
400 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM TSTM WND DMG PINE STUMP JUNCTION 46.57N 85.58W
10/15/2011 LUCE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL TREES DOWN ACROSS THE ROAD NEAR PINE STUMP
JUNCTION. EXACT TIME UNKNOWN...ESTIMATED BY TIME OF
HIGHEST WINDS AT GRRM4.

0400 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 E PIKE LAKE 46.64N 85.36W
10/15/2011 LUCE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL 3 FT DIAMETER TREES DOWN NEAR THE PIKE LAKE AREA
NEAR COUNTY ROAD 414. EXACT TIME OF INCIDENT
UNKNOWN...ESTIMATED BY HIGHEST WINDSPEEDS AT GRMM4.

&&

$$

MBABICH

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KPIH [161943]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 161943
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
143 PM MDT SUN OCT 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0120 PM TSTM WND GST ARCO 43.63N 113.30W
10/16/2011 M52 MPH BUTTE ID MESONET

&&

$$

VALLE

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KBUF [161934]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBUF 161934
LSRBUF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
333 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0222 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG UNION SETTLEMENT 43.32N 76.05W
10/16/2011 OSWEGO NY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

NYSDOT REPORTED LANES CLOSED IN BOTH DIRECTIONS AT THE
INTERSECTION OF NY 13 AND TOWNE RD DUE TO A DOWNED TREE

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1100270

$$

JAM

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161906
SWODY1
SPC AC 161904

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 PM CDT SUN OCT 16 2011

VALID 162000Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

REMOVED THE 2% TORNADO PROBABILITIES ACROSS FAR SRN FL AND THE
KEYS...AS LOW LEVEL SRH IS VERY WEAK AND LAPSE RATES PROFILES ARE
POOR. THIS...COMBINED WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...SUGGEST LITTLE
ROTATION POTENTIAL WILL EXIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

..JEWELL.. 10/16/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2011/

A WEAK TROPICAL LOW IS SLOWLY ORGANIZING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS CONVECTION
EXTENDS ACROSS THE FL KEYS AND MAY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
FL PENINSULA LATER TODAY. LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED ROTATING STORM
OR TWO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...BUT A BRIEF TORNADO OR WATERSPOUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

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KMQT [161855]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 161855
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
254 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0153 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NE HOUGHTON 47.16N 88.49W
10/16/2011 M50.00 MPH HOUGHTON MI ASOS

MEASURED AT HOUGHTON COUNTY AIRPORT KCMX

&&

$$

MBABICH

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KMQT [161844]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KMQT 161844
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
243 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 WNW CALUMET 47.28N 88.53W
10/15/2011 M51.00 MPH HOUGHTON MI C-MAN STATION

0715 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG NEWBERRY 46.35N 85.51W
10/15/2011 LUCE MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS LUCE COUNTY RESULTING IN
SEVERAL POWER OUTAGES. THIS HAS BEEN ONGOING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

1036 AM NON-TSTM WND GST FREDA 47.13N 88.82W
10/16/2011 M43.00 MPH HOUGHTON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 35 MPH. GUSTING IN THE LOW 40S.

1050 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 41 N COPPER HARBOR 48.06N 87.89W
10/16/2011 M45.00 MPH LSZ264 MI BUOY

0140 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 WNW CALUMET 47.28N 88.53W
10/16/2011 M45.00 MPH HOUGHTON MI C-MAN STATION

0208 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NE GRAND MARAIS 46.68N 85.97W
10/16/2011 M60.00 MPH ALGER MI C-MAN STATION

&&

$$

MBABICH

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KMQT [161843]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KMQT 161843
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
242 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0208 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NE GRAND MARAIS 46.68N 85.97W
10/16/2011 M60.00 MPH ALGER MI C-MAN STATION

&&

$$

MBABICH

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KMFL [161841]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 161841
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
241 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0205 PM NON-TSTM WND GST VIRGINIA KEY 25.75N 80.16W
10/16/2011 M47 MPH MIAMI-DADE FL MESONET

A MESONET SITE ON VIRGINIA KEY RECORDED AN EASTERLY WIND
GUST OF 41 KTS...OR 47 MPH...AROUND 205 PM EDT. THIS GUST
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A HEAVY RAINBAND MOVING INTO THE
AREA.

&&

$$

ROSS

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KMQT [161841]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 161841
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
240 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1036 AM NON-TSTM WND GST FREDA 47.13N 88.82W
10/16/2011 M43.00 MPH HOUGHTON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 35 MPH. GUSTING IN THE LOW 40S.

1050 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 41 N COPPER HARBOR 48.06N 87.89W
10/16/2011 M45.00 MPH LSZ264 MI BUOY

0140 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 WNW CALUMET 47.28N 88.53W
10/16/2011 M45.00 MPH HOUGHTON MI C-MAN STATION

0208 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NE GRAND MARAIS 46.68N 85.97W
10/16/2011 E52.00 MPH ALGER MI C-MAN STATION

&&

$$

MBABICH

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 161616
SWODY2
SPC AC 161615

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2011

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO
THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED
BY WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS NW TX/SRN OK DURING THE DAY. BY
00Z...A COLD FRONT AND IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM NWRN TX INTO SERN
OK. WITH MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SERN
STATES...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED.

ELSEWHERE...ELY WINDS OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL HELP TO INCREASE
MOISTURE ACROSS FL...WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

...RED RIVER VALLEY INTO ERN OK...NWRN AR AND SWRN MO...
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SLY WINDS WILL HELP TO
TRANSPORT AT LEAST MID 50S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NWD ACROSS TX
AND INTO CNTRL OK BY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPPING
WILL BE IN PLACE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES A BIT COOL.
HOWEVER...STRONG FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND FAVORABLE LARGE
SCALE SUPPORT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COLD
FRONT. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AS WELL AS FAVORABLY LONG
HODOGRAPHS WOULD SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...AND PERHAPS SOME
GUSTY WINDS. THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT
PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER...AIDED BY FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY.

..JEWELL.. 10/16/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161614
SWODY1
SPC AC 161612

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2011

VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

A WEAK TROPICAL LOW IS SLOWLY ORGANIZING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS CONVECTION
EXTENDS ACROSS THE FL KEYS AND MAY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
FL PENINSULA LATER TODAY. LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED ROTATING STORM
OR TWO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...BUT A BRIEF TORNADO OR WATERSPOUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..HART/HURLBUT.. 10/16/2011

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KKEY [161542]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 161542
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1142 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0822 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SSE KEY LARGO 25.01N 80.38W
10/16/2011 E40 MPH GMZ052 FL C-MAN STATION

THE MOLASSES REEF LIGHT C-MAN STATION RECORDED A 35-KNOT
WIND GUST AT 822AM LOCAL AS FAST MOVING SHOWERS PASSED
THROUGH THE AREA.

0918 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SSE KEY LARGO 25.01N 80.38W
10/16/2011 E45 MPH GMZ052 FL C-MAN STATION

THE MOLASSES REEF LIGHT C-MAN STATION RECORDED A 39-KNOT
WIND GUST AT 918AM LOCAL AS FAST MOVING SHOWERS PASSED
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

$$

ULRICH

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161240
SWODY1
SPC AC 161238

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2011

VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS AN
EMBEDDED SPEED MAX PIVOTS EWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED
LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR FROM UPPER MI TO LAKE ONTARIO
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT AS WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN
RESPONSE TO COLD AIR ALOFT N OF THE JET...AND AUGMENTATION OF
LOW-LEVEL THETA-E OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKES. FARTHER W...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD FROM THE INTERIOR PAC NW TOWARD THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
THE ZONE OF ASCENT PRECEDING THE MIDLEVEL WAVE.

OTHERWISE...A TROPICAL LOW APPEARS TO BE ORGANIZING ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA. NE OF THE LOW...A MOIST AIR MASS WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S RESIDES ACROSS THE FL KEYS. THIS MOISTURE
WILL MAINTAIN 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE /PER 12Z MIAMI AND KEY WEST
SOUNDINGS/ IN A NEARLY SATURATED AND POOR LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.
DESPITE THE MODEST INSTABILITY...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR COULD MARGINALLY SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS ACROSS THE KEYS AND
FL STRAITS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

..THOMPSON/BOTHWELL.. 10/16/2011

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 160846
SWOD48
SPC AC 160845

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2011

VALID 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS DISPLAY FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL THE VERY END
OF THE PERIOD...WITH STEADY PROGRESSION OF A LARGE/DEEPENING UPPER
VORTEX FROM THE OH VALLEY REGION NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO SOUTHEAST QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND THROUGH DAY 5 /THU. OCT.
20/. A DEEPENING/OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW SHIFTING NWD ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST REGION IS PROGGED TO REACH NRN NY/SERN
ONTARIO/SRN QUEBEC BY THE BEGINNING OF DAY 5...BUT THEN WEAKEN
THROUGH DAY 6 AS IT CONTINUES NWD/NEWD ACROSS ERN CANADA.

IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING VORTEX...A REMNANT/LOWER-AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE ERN
CONUS...WITH A ZONE OF FAST NWLY FLOW UPSTREAM ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE CENTRAL AND WRN STATES UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN MODEL
FORECASTS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.

DEPENDING UPON EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW/FRONT...SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY LINGER ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL REGION EARLY IN THE DAY 4 PERIOD /WED. OCT. 19/...AND
POSSIBLY NWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AS THE LOW OCCLUDES. DEGREE OF
ANY THREAT HOWEVER DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF AN
OUTLOOK AREA ATTM. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND DEPARTS NWD DAY
5...COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS E OF THE ROCKIES WILL PRECLUDE
APPRECIABLE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 10/16/2011

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 160732
SWODY3
SPC AC 160731

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2011

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF A
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH EXPANDING ACROSS THE ERN U.S. THIS PERIOD.
HOWEVER...GENERAL AGREEMENT EXISTS THAT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL...WITH A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE IN THE WEST...A SHARP
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...AND THEN THE EXPANSIVE/EVOLVING TROUGH OVER
THE EAST.

AT THE SURFACE...DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS ARE EVEN MORE
PRONOUNCED...WITH THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF EACH SHOWING VARIANCES
IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE LOW CENTER/CENTERS AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONTS. EACH MODEL HINTS AT A MORE NRN LOW MOVING INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND A MORE SRN LOW SHIFTING NEWD OUT OF THE ERN
GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT EXACT EVOLUTION REMAINS
QUITE UNCERTAIN ATTM.

...THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND ATLANTIC COAST...
THE DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE PATTERN EVOLUTION OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE U.S. THIS PERIOD CAST SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FORECAST
WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. IN THIS SITUATION...DEGREE AND
LOCATION OF ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE STRONGLY ASSOCIATED
WITH AREAS OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INVOF ANY SURFACE LOWS...AND
BY FRONTAL LOCATION AS IT RELATES TO AREAS OF FAVORED STORM
DEVELOPMENT.

IN GENERAL...WITH MODEST DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF THE EVOLVING UPPER TROUGH...AT LEAST LOW-END SEVERE
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS A RELATIVELY LARGE AREA -- WITHIN
A BROAD ZONE FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION EWD ACROSS FL...AND
NEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA. THEREFORE...A LOW-PROBABILITY
SEVERE THREAT AREA WILL BE INTRODUCED THIS FORECAST CORRESPONDING TO
THIS REGION.

SMALLER AREAS OF ENHANCED/HIGHER-PROBABILITY SEVERE -- AND POSSIBLY
TORNADO -- THREAT WILL LIKELY EVOLVE...MOST LIKELY WITHIN THE
PORTIONS OF THE ZONE EXTENDING FROM FL NWD...PERHAPS AS FAR N AS THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CLOSE ASSOCIATION OF
SURFACE FEATURE LOCATION TO ANY POCKETS OF ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL
THAT IS EXPECTED TO EXIST...CORRIDORS OF HIGHER THREAT REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN ATTM. THEREFORE...WILL REFRAIN FROM INTRODUCING ANY
SLIGHT RISK AREAS UNTIL LATER FORECASTS WHEN PLACEMENT OF SUCH AREAS
CAN BE DONE WITH MORE CERTAINTY.

..GOSS.. 10/16/2011

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 160559
SWODY2
SPC AC 160558

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT SUN OCT 16 2011

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELD AMPLIFICATION IS FORECAST OVER THE U.S. THIS
PERIOD...AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES -- EMBEDDED WITHIN
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE STRONG UPPER VORTEX CENTERED OVER ERN
CANADA -- DIVES SEWD TOWARD THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY. BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD...A SHARP RIDGE IS PROGGED OVER THE WRN CONUS...WHILE A
DEEP/EXPANSIVE TROUGH RESIDES OVER ALL OF CENTRAL AND ERN NOAM.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE BAROTROPIC LOW OVER ERN CANADA SHOULD
WEAKEN WITH TIME...WHILE A WEAK LOW INITIALLY INVOF OK DEEPENS
SLOWLY AS IT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE MID MS/TN VALLEYS LATE. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT -- AT THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SE OUT OF
THE ROCKIES -- WILL SURGE SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...REACHING THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO LATE.

...ARKLATEX/OZARKS REGION...
WHILE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO
THE COOL SIZE OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK ACROSS SRN MO...ISOLATED
SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MODEST DESTABILIZATION AND A SLOWLY
WEAKENING CAP OCCURS THROUGH PEAK HEATING. PRESUMING STORM
INITIATION OCCURS ALONG THE COLD FRONT...UPDRAFTS WOULD BE AIDED
KINEMATICALLY -- WITH LOW-LEVEL SLYS INCREASING TO WSWLY AT 40 KT AT
MID LEVELS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION/ROTATION.

ATTM...POTENTIAL THAT CAPPING PRECLUDES ANY MORE THAN ISOLATED
SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT APPEARS SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
INTRODUCTION OF A SLIGHT RISK AREA. HOWEVER...WILL INTRODUCE LOW
SEVERE PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA...AS A STRONGER STORM OR TWO MAY
BE CAPABLE OF MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR A DAMAGING WIND GUST. THREAT MAY
EXTEND EWD INTO ERN AR DURING THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN
DUE TO DIURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION.

..GOSS.. 10/16/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 160446
SWODY1
SPC AC 160444

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 PM CDT SAT OCT 15 2011

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY AFTERNOON...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT ADVANCING TOWARD THE OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
UPSTREAM FROM THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH...A WEAK IMPULSE WILL ENTER THE
PAC NW THIS MORNING...AND THEN ADVANCE E-SEWD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
W BY NIGHT.

...FL KEYS...
VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL RESIDE OVER THE FL KEYS TODAY ALONG
A ZONE OF CONFLUENT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. HOWEVER...LOW AND MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. AS MORNING PROGRESSES
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...LOW-LEVEL ELY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN /UP TO 30-40 KT AT 1 KM AGL/...RESULTING IN ENLARGED
HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE AND INCREASING 0-3 KM SRH VALUES /NEAR 200 M2
S-2/. THESE WIND PROFILES COULD FAVOR BRIEFLY ROTATING
SHOWERS/STORMS AND A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A TORNADO/WATERSPOUT.

...SRN CASCADES EWD INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN W...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS ORE AND
CNTRL/SRN ID DURING PEAK HEATING. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE AND DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES WILL
AID IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE CASCADES TOWARD
THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS/SNAKE RIVER VALLEY OF ID ...WITH ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER WRN WY. THOUGH MLCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
BE MARGINAL /AOB 500 J PER KG/ OVER ERN ORE AND WRN/SWRN ID...THE
COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER WLY SHEAR
/50-60 KT IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER/ COULD FAVOR A FEW STORMS PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL.

..GARNER/GUYER.. 10/16/2011

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