NWUS55 KMSO 110430
LSRMSO
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
929 PM MST SUN NOV 10 2013
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0922 PM SNOW ESSEX 48.28N 113.61W
11/10/2013 E12.0 INCH FLATHEAD MT PUBLIC
SNOW DEPTH IS 20 INCHES. US-2 CONDITIONS ARE
SNOW COVERED AND SLICK. CURRENTLY SNOWING
WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE MILE. AT 1
PM MST TODAY, THEY ESTIMATED 6 INCHES HAD
FALLEN. SNOW DURATION 23 HOURS OBSERVER
LOCATION ESSEX
&&
$$
NWS MISSOULA MT
IRIS SYSTEM
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Sunday, November 10, 2013
DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 110038
SWODY1
SPC AC 110036
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
VALID 110100Z - 111200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
NO TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER 48 STATES THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.
A STRONG BAND OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL WNWLY WINDS WILL PERSIST FROM
THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. FORCING FOR ASCENT AND COLD MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES ATTENDANT TO A POTENT/COMPACT IMPULSE
RESULTED IN A BURST OF LIGHTNING BETWEEN 10/21-23Z NEAR AND OFFSHORE
OF THE MA SOUTH COAST AND CAPE COD AS A FRONT MOVED EWD. TSTMS/
LIGHTNING ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA AS THE IMPULSE...
PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND.
..PETERS.. 11/11/2013
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SWODY1
SPC AC 110036
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
VALID 110100Z - 111200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
NO TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER 48 STATES THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.
A STRONG BAND OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL WNWLY WINDS WILL PERSIST FROM
THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. FORCING FOR ASCENT AND COLD MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES ATTENDANT TO A POTENT/COMPACT IMPULSE
RESULTED IN A BURST OF LIGHTNING BETWEEN 10/21-23Z NEAR AND OFFSHORE
OF THE MA SOUTH COAST AND CAPE COD AS A FRONT MOVED EWD. TSTMS/
LIGHTNING ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA AS THE IMPULSE...
PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF
NEW ENGLAND.
..PETERS.. 11/11/2013
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KTFX [110026]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 110026
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
526 PM MST SUN NOV 10 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0525 PM SNOW 10 SSE BROWNING 48.42N 112.94W
11/10/2013 M6.0 INCH GLACIER MT TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
PN
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
526 PM MST SUN NOV 10 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0525 PM SNOW 10 SSE BROWNING 48.42N 112.94W
11/10/2013 M6.0 INCH GLACIER MT TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
PN
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KTFX [102055]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 102055
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
155 PM MST SUN NOV 10 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0100 PM SNOW BROWNING 48.56N 113.01W
11/10/2013 M6.0 INCH GLACIER MT EMERGENCY MNGR
&&
$$
PN
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
155 PM MST SUN NOV 10 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0100 PM SNOW BROWNING 48.56N 113.01W
11/10/2013 M6.0 INCH GLACIER MT EMERGENCY MNGR
&&
$$
PN
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KTFX [102052]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 102052
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
152 PM MST SUN NOV 10 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0148 PM HEAVY SNOW 11 SSW EAST GLACIER PAR 48.30N 113.33W
11/10/2013 M8.0 INCH GLACIER MT MESONET
PIKE CREEK SNOTEL 8 INCHES LAST 24 HOURS... 7 INCHES
LAST 12 HOURS.
&&
$$
PN
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
152 PM MST SUN NOV 10 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0148 PM HEAVY SNOW 11 SSW EAST GLACIER PAR 48.30N 113.33W
11/10/2013 M8.0 INCH GLACIER MT MESONET
PIKE CREEK SNOTEL 8 INCHES LAST 24 HOURS... 7 INCHES
LAST 12 HOURS.
&&
$$
PN
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KTFX [102020]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 102020
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
120 PM MST SUN NOV 10 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0119 PM SNOW 1 N SUNBURST 48.88N 111.91W
11/10/2013 E3.5 INCH TOOLE MT TRAINED SPOTTER
3.5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL SINCE 6AM. STILL SNOWING.
&&
$$
NJL
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
120 PM MST SUN NOV 10 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0119 PM SNOW 1 N SUNBURST 48.88N 111.91W
11/10/2013 E3.5 INCH TOOLE MT TRAINED SPOTTER
3.5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL SINCE 6AM. STILL SNOWING.
&&
$$
NJL
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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS48 KWNS 102007
SWOD48
SPC AC 102007
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
VALID 131200Z - 181200Z
...DISCUSSION...
IN THE WAKE OF A SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL COLD INTRUSION TO THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES...INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY
TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTIVE THAT A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF OF MEXICO PROBABLY WILL DEVELOP BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THE
EXTENT OF GULF BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION AND INLAND MOISTURE
RETURN DURING THIS TIME REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND A POINT OF MODEL
UNCERTAINTY. ADDITIONALLY...VARIABILITY INCREASES AMONG THE
MODELS...AND THE SPREAD WITHIN VARIOUS MODEL ENSEMBLES BECOMES QUITE
LARGE...CONCERNING SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THE PREVAILING
SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME. STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LIKELY WILL BE
NECESSARY SOMEWHERE TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TO SUPPORT A SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WHILE THIS MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION ...POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS
LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME.
..KERR.. 11/10/2013
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SWOD48
SPC AC 102007
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
VALID 131200Z - 181200Z
...DISCUSSION...
IN THE WAKE OF A SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL COLD INTRUSION TO THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES...INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY
TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTIVE THAT A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF OF MEXICO PROBABLY WILL DEVELOP BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THE
EXTENT OF GULF BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION AND INLAND MOISTURE
RETURN DURING THIS TIME REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND A POINT OF MODEL
UNCERTAINTY. ADDITIONALLY...VARIABILITY INCREASES AMONG THE
MODELS...AND THE SPREAD WITHIN VARIOUS MODEL ENSEMBLES BECOMES QUITE
LARGE...CONCERNING SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THE PREVAILING
SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME. STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LIKELY WILL BE
NECESSARY SOMEWHERE TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TO SUPPORT A SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WHILE THIS MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION ...POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS
LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME.
..KERR.. 11/10/2013
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 101953
SWODY1
SPC AC 101951
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
VALID 102000Z - 111200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
NO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS ISSUANCE.
..BROYLES.. 11/10/2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013/
...S FL...
A STALLED FRONT WILL PERSIST ACROSS SRN FL SUNDAY WITH A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE. MEANWHILE...A PLUME
OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE GULF AND ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA. DESPITE A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL RESULT IN VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
INCLUDING SRN FL. WHILE THE UNSTABLE LAYER MAY EXTEND THROUGH LEVELS
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION...UPDRAFT
STRENGTH WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND POOR
LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A MORE GENERAL AREA OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN
10%.
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SWODY1
SPC AC 101951
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
VALID 102000Z - 111200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
NO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS ISSUANCE.
..BROYLES.. 11/10/2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013/
...S FL...
A STALLED FRONT WILL PERSIST ACROSS SRN FL SUNDAY WITH A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE. MEANWHILE...A PLUME
OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE GULF AND ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA. DESPITE A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL RESULT IN VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
INCLUDING SRN FL. WHILE THE UNSTABLE LAYER MAY EXTEND THROUGH LEVELS
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION...UPDRAFT
STRENGTH WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND POOR
LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A MORE GENERAL AREA OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN
10%.
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KTFX [101950]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 101950
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1249 PM MST SUN NOV 10 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1200 PM HEAVY SNOW 14 SW HEART BUTTE 48.13N 113.02W
11/10/2013 M6.0 INCH PONDERA MT MESONET
6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 7 HOURS. BADGER PASS
SNOTEL. ELEVATION 6900 FEET.
&&
$$
NJL
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1249 PM MST SUN NOV 10 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1200 PM HEAVY SNOW 14 SW HEART BUTTE 48.13N 113.02W
11/10/2013 M6.0 INCH PONDERA MT MESONET
6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 7 HOURS. BADGER PASS
SNOTEL. ELEVATION 6900 FEET.
&&
$$
NJL
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KIWX [101928]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KIWX 101928
LSRIWX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
228 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1100 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 WNW POTTAWATTOMIE PAR 41.74N 86.91W
11/09/2013 M48 MPH LMZ046 IN C-MAN STATION
42 KNOT PEAK GUST
&&
$$
FISHER
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LSRIWX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
228 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1100 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 WNW POTTAWATTOMIE PAR 41.74N 86.91W
11/09/2013 M48 MPH LMZ046 IN C-MAN STATION
42 KNOT PEAK GUST
&&
$$
FISHER
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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 101726
SWODY2
SPC AC 101724
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON MONDAY. ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
ACROSS THE ERN PART OF LAKE SUPERIOR...NRN PART OF LAKE MI AND LAKE
HURON DUE TO STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE
THE LAKES AS THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET PASSES ACROSS THE
REGION. CONVECTION MAY ALSO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AN AXIS
OF INSTABILITY IN NRN OK AND SE KS BUT WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
SHOULD KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ISOLATED. NONE OF THE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.
..BROYLES.. 11/10/2013
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SWODY2
SPC AC 101724
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON MONDAY. ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
ACROSS THE ERN PART OF LAKE SUPERIOR...NRN PART OF LAKE MI AND LAKE
HURON DUE TO STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE
THE LAKES AS THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET PASSES ACROSS THE
REGION. CONVECTION MAY ALSO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AN AXIS
OF INSTABILITY IN NRN OK AND SE KS BUT WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
SHOULD KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ISOLATED. NONE OF THE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.
..BROYLES.. 11/10/2013
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Resent 1
ACUS01 KWNS 101711
SWODY1
SPC AC 101709
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
VALID 101630Z - 111200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...S FL...
A STALLED FRONT WILL PERSIST ACROSS SRN FL SUNDAY WITH A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE. MEANWHILE...A PLUME
OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE GULF AND ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA. DESPITE A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL RESULT IN VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
INCLUDING SRN FL. WHILE THE UNSTABLE LAYER MAY EXTEND THROUGH LEVELS
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION...UPDRAFT
STRENGTH WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND POOR
LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A MORE GENERAL AREA OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN
10%.
..15OWS.. 11/10/2013
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SWODY1
SPC AC 101709
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
VALID 101630Z - 111200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...S FL...
A STALLED FRONT WILL PERSIST ACROSS SRN FL SUNDAY WITH A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE. MEANWHILE...A PLUME
OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE GULF AND ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA. DESPITE A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL RESULT IN VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
INCLUDING SRN FL. WHILE THE UNSTABLE LAYER MAY EXTEND THROUGH LEVELS
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION...UPDRAFT
STRENGTH WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND POOR
LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A MORE GENERAL AREA OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN
10%.
..15OWS.. 11/10/2013
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 101656
SWODY1
SPC AC 101616
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
1016 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
VALID 101630Z - 111200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...S FL...
A STALLED FRONT WILL PERSIST ACROSS SRN FL SUNDAY WITH A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE. MEANWHILE...A PLUME
OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE GULF AND ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA. DESPITE A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL RESULT IN VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
INCLUDING SRN FL. WHILE THE UNSTABLE LAYER MAY EXTEND THROUGH LEVELS
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION...UPDRAFT
STRENGTH WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND POOR
LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A MORE GENERAL AREA OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN
10%.
..15_OWS.. 11/10/2013
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SWODY1
SPC AC 101616
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
1016 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
VALID 101630Z - 111200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...S FL...
A STALLED FRONT WILL PERSIST ACROSS SRN FL SUNDAY WITH A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE. MEANWHILE...A PLUME
OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE GULF AND ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA. DESPITE A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL RESULT IN VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
INCLUDING SRN FL. WHILE THE UNSTABLE LAYER MAY EXTEND THROUGH LEVELS
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION...UPDRAFT
STRENGTH WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND POOR
LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A MORE GENERAL AREA OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN
10%.
..15_OWS.. 11/10/2013
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 101616
SWODY1
SPC AC 101616
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
1016 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
VALID 101630Z - 111200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...S FL...
A STALLED FRONT WILL PERSIST ACROSS SRN FL SUNDAY WITH A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE. MEANWHILE...A PLUME
OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE GULF AND ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA. DESPITE A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL RESULT IN VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
INCLUDING SRN FL. WHILE THE UNSTABLE LAYER MAY EXTEND THROUGH LEVELS
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION...UPDRAFT
STRENGTH WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND POOR
LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A MORE GENERAL AREA OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN
10%.
..15_OWS.. 11/10/2013
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SWODY1
SPC AC 101616
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
1016 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
VALID 101630Z - 111200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...S FL...
A STALLED FRONT WILL PERSIST ACROSS SRN FL SUNDAY WITH A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE. MEANWHILE...A PLUME
OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE GULF AND ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA. DESPITE A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL RESULT IN VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
INCLUDING SRN FL. WHILE THE UNSTABLE LAYER MAY EXTEND THROUGH LEVELS
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION...UPDRAFT
STRENGTH WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND POOR
LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A MORE GENERAL AREA OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN
10%.
..15_OWS.. 11/10/2013
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 101246
SWODY1
SPC AC 101246
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
0646 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
VALID 101300Z - 111200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...S FL...
A STALLED FRONT WILL PERSIST ACROSS SRN FL SUNDAY WITH A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE. MEANWHILE...A PLUME
OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE GULF AND ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA. DESPITE A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL RESULT IN VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
INCLUDING SRN FL. WHILE THE UNSTABLE LAYER MAY EXTEND THROUGH LEVELS
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION...UPDRAFT
STRENGTH WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND POOR
LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A MORE GENERAL AREA OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN
10%.
..15_OWS.. 11/10/2013
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SWODY1
SPC AC 101246
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
0646 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
VALID 101300Z - 111200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...S FL...
A STALLED FRONT WILL PERSIST ACROSS SRN FL SUNDAY WITH A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE. MEANWHILE...A PLUME
OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE GULF AND ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA. DESPITE A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL RESULT IN VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
INCLUDING SRN FL. WHILE THE UNSTABLE LAYER MAY EXTEND THROUGH LEVELS
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION...UPDRAFT
STRENGTH WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND POOR
LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A MORE GENERAL AREA OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN
10%.
..15_OWS.. 11/10/2013
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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS48 KWNS 100850
SWOD48
SPC AC 100849
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
VALID 131200Z - 181200Z
...DISCUSSION...
IN THE WAKE OF A SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL COLD INTRUSION TO THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES...INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY
TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTIVE THAT A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF OF MEXICO PROBABLY WILL DEVELOP BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THE
EXTENT OF GULF BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION AND INLAND MOISTURE
RETURN DURING THIS TIME REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND A POINT OF MODEL
UNCERTAINTY. ADDITIONALLY...VARIABILITY INCREASES AMONG THE
MODELS...AND THE SPREAD WITHIN VARIOUS MODEL ENSEMBLES BECOMES QUITE
LARGE...CONCERNING SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THE PREVAILING
SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME. STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LIKELY WILL BE
NECESSARY SOMEWHERE TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TO SUPPORT A SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WHILE THIS MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION ...POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS
LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME.
..KERR.. 11/10/2013
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SWOD48
SPC AC 100849
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
VALID 131200Z - 181200Z
...DISCUSSION...
IN THE WAKE OF A SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL COLD INTRUSION TO THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES...INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY
TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTIVE THAT A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF OF MEXICO PROBABLY WILL DEVELOP BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THE
EXTENT OF GULF BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION AND INLAND MOISTURE
RETURN DURING THIS TIME REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND A POINT OF MODEL
UNCERTAINTY. ADDITIONALLY...VARIABILITY INCREASES AMONG THE
MODELS...AND THE SPREAD WITHIN VARIOUS MODEL ENSEMBLES BECOMES QUITE
LARGE...CONCERNING SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THE PREVAILING
SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME. STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LIKELY WILL BE
NECESSARY SOMEWHERE TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TO SUPPORT A SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WHILE THIS MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION ...POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS
LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME.
..KERR.. 11/10/2013
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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS03 KWNS 100741
SWODY3
SPC AC 100738
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0138 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS A SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE PROGRESSES INLAND...ACROSS AND TO
THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...MODELS INDICATE THAT RIDGING OVER
INTERIOR WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL FLATTEN AND FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE ZONAL DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF
LARGE-SCALE MID/UPPER TROUGHING APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...COINCIDENT WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A
SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL COLD INTRUSION ACROSS THE GULF COAST INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIR MASS AT
THE SURFACE MAY REACH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THESE DEVELOPMENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REINFORCE GENERALLY STABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S...WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
REMAINING LOW TO NEGLIGIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
...FLORIDA PENINSULA...
THE OPERATIONAL NAM...IN PARTICULAR...APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE INTERIOR FLORIDA
PENINSULA...ESPECIALLY NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS. HOWEVER...LOCALLY
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AT LEAST NEAR SOUTHERN COASTAL
AREAS...MAY SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED DAYTIME AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AIDED BY LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF THE DIGGING SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
..KERR.. 11/10/2013
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SWODY3
SPC AC 100738
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0138 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS A SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE PROGRESSES INLAND...ACROSS AND TO
THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...MODELS INDICATE THAT RIDGING OVER
INTERIOR WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL FLATTEN AND FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE ZONAL DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF
LARGE-SCALE MID/UPPER TROUGHING APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...COINCIDENT WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A
SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL COLD INTRUSION ACROSS THE GULF COAST INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIR MASS AT
THE SURFACE MAY REACH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THESE DEVELOPMENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REINFORCE GENERALLY STABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S...WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
REMAINING LOW TO NEGLIGIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
...FLORIDA PENINSULA...
THE OPERATIONAL NAM...IN PARTICULAR...APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE INTERIOR FLORIDA
PENINSULA...ESPECIALLY NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS. HOWEVER...LOCALLY
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AT LEAST NEAR SOUTHERN COASTAL
AREAS...MAY SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED DAYTIME AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AIDED BY LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF THE DIGGING SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
..KERR.. 11/10/2013
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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 100604
SWODY2
SPC AC 100602
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED
ACROSS THE PACIFIC...WHILE ALSO BECOMING INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
DOWNSTREAM...ACROSS MUCH OF CANADA AND THE U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD.
AS AN INITIAL IMPULSE WITHIN LARGER SCALE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGHING
SHIFTS TOWARD THE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST...UPPER RIDGING APPEARS LIKELY TO BUILD ALONG AN AXIS NORTH
NORTHEAST OF A SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH CENTER THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ADJACENT NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SAME
TIME...CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN EAST OF THE
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXPANDING/STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH
...THE CENTER OF WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI
VALLEY REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS COLD INTRUSION MAY CURVE
FROM NEAR NORTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z TUESDAY. WHILE THIS
LATTER FEATURE SHOULD ACT TO GENERALLY REINFORCE STABLE CONDITIONS
WITH LOW CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE RISK FOR
WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS AT LEAST A COUPLE OF AREAS.
...GREAT LAKES REGION...
PRONOUNCED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE
RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE...THROUGH COLD ENOUGH
LAYERS...TO SUPPORT FAIRLY VIGOROUS LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LIGHTNING. SOME OF THIS COULD ORGANIZE INTO ELONGATING
BANDS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN BY
MIDDAY...COASTAL NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
PERHAPS THE REMAINDER OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING THE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS.
...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...
LOW PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STILL APPEAR TO EXIST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...MAINLY WHERE AN AXIS OF
STRONGER PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE HEATING EMANATING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS
INTERSECTS THE AXIS OF A WEAK RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE...PROVIDING
THE FOCUS FOR WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. MID/UPPER
FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT PROBABLY WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE...BUT A
ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FRONTAL LIFT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH A TENDENCY TO BE
UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT WHILE DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD/SOUTHWESTWARD.
..KERR.. 11/10/2013
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SWODY2
SPC AC 100602
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED
ACROSS THE PACIFIC...WHILE ALSO BECOMING INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
DOWNSTREAM...ACROSS MUCH OF CANADA AND THE U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD.
AS AN INITIAL IMPULSE WITHIN LARGER SCALE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGHING
SHIFTS TOWARD THE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST...UPPER RIDGING APPEARS LIKELY TO BUILD ALONG AN AXIS NORTH
NORTHEAST OF A SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH CENTER THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ADJACENT NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SAME
TIME...CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN EAST OF THE
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXPANDING/STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH
...THE CENTER OF WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI
VALLEY REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS COLD INTRUSION MAY CURVE
FROM NEAR NORTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z TUESDAY. WHILE THIS
LATTER FEATURE SHOULD ACT TO GENERALLY REINFORCE STABLE CONDITIONS
WITH LOW CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE RISK FOR
WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS AT LEAST A COUPLE OF AREAS.
...GREAT LAKES REGION...
PRONOUNCED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE
RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE...THROUGH COLD ENOUGH
LAYERS...TO SUPPORT FAIRLY VIGOROUS LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LIGHTNING. SOME OF THIS COULD ORGANIZE INTO ELONGATING
BANDS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN BY
MIDDAY...COASTAL NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
PERHAPS THE REMAINDER OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING THE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS.
...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...
LOW PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STILL APPEAR TO EXIST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...MAINLY WHERE AN AXIS OF
STRONGER PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE HEATING EMANATING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS
INTERSECTS THE AXIS OF A WEAK RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE...PROVIDING
THE FOCUS FOR WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. MID/UPPER
FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT PROBABLY WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE...BUT A
ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FRONTAL LIFT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH A TENDENCY TO BE
UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT WHILE DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD/SOUTHWESTWARD.
..KERR.. 11/10/2013
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 100537
SWODY1
SPC AC 100533
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 PM CST SAT NOV 09 2013
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...S FL...
A STALLED FRONT WILL PERSIST ACROSS SRN FL SUNDAY WITH A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE. MEANWHILE...A PLUME
OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE GULF AND ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA. DESPITE A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL RESULT IN VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
INCLUDING SRN FL. WHILE THE UNSTABLE LAYER MAY EXTEND THROUGH LEVELS
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION...UPDRAFT
STRENGTH WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND POOR
LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A MORE GENERAL AREA OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN
10%.
..DIAL.. 11/10/2013
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SWODY1
SPC AC 100533
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 PM CST SAT NOV 09 2013
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...S FL...
A STALLED FRONT WILL PERSIST ACROSS SRN FL SUNDAY WITH A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE. MEANWHILE...A PLUME
OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE GULF AND ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA. DESPITE A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL RESULT IN VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
INCLUDING SRN FL. WHILE THE UNSTABLE LAYER MAY EXTEND THROUGH LEVELS
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION...UPDRAFT
STRENGTH WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND POOR
LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A MORE GENERAL AREA OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN
10%.
..DIAL.. 11/10/2013
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