KDDC [151442]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 151442
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
942 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 ENE CATHERINE 38.94N 99.18W
09/15/2010 M4.50 INCH ELLIS KS PUBLIC

&&

$$

GERARD

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KGID [151419]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 151419
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
919 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0909 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 E ASHERVILLE 39.41N 97.94W
09/15/2010 M2.50 INCH MITCHELL KS TRAINED SPOTTER

2.50 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE LAST NIGHT AND STILL RAINING

&&

$$

PFANNKUCH

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KGID [151410]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 151410
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
910 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0909 AM FLOOD 4 S BELOIT 39.41N 98.11W
09/15/2010 MITCHELL KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER RUNNING OVER HIGHWAY 14. DEPTH UNKNOWN.

&&

$$

PFANNKUCH

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KGLD [151345]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 151345
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
744 AM MDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM TSTM WND DMG 23 NW GOODLAND 39.58N 102.01W
09/14/2010 CHEYENNE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

CENTER PIVOT OVERTURNED. TOPS OF TREES THAT WERE 6 TO 8
INCHES IN DIAMETER BLOWN OFF. RECEIVED QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
CORN CROP DAMAGED. RECEIVED 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN.

&&

$$

MBULLER

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KABR [151341]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 151341
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
841 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0835 AM HEAVY RAIN 30 W REDFIELD 44.87N 99.13W
09/15/2010 M2.57 INCH HAND SD CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR TOTAL

&&

$$

TMT

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KABR [151327]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 151327
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
827 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0824 AM HAIL 8 N PIERRE 44.49N 100.32W
09/15/2010 E1.00 INCH HUGHES SD TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL COVERED THE GROUND. 40 TO 45 MPH WINDS.

&&

$$

KGILLE

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KABR [151322]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 151322
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
822 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0815 AM HAIL 8 N PIERRE 44.49N 100.32W
09/15/2010 E1.00 INCH HUGHES SD TRAINED SPOTTER

LOTS OF IT. GREY GOOSE ROAD.

&&

$$

KGILLE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151252
SWODY1
SPC AC 151250

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY...

WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY TODAY AS IT
PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION. THE LARGE AREA
OF LOW SURFACE PRESSURE CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM KS INTO SD WILL
DEEPEN FURTHER AND MOVE INTO MN/IA/MO BY EVENING. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL HELP TO
TRANSPORT RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND MID MS VALLEY.

THE PRIMARY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY TODAY INVOLVES LARGE AREA OF
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OVER KS. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY
TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND POSSIBLY RE-INTENSIFY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MO WITH A MINOR SEVERE THREAT. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW
MUCH DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THESE STORMS...BUT
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. POCKETS OF STRONG AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OVER 2500 J/KG/ ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO/NORTHEAST OK. NEW THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN KS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MO/NORTHEAST
OK DURING THE EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.

FARTHER NORTH OVER IA/MN...DESTABILIZATION AND HEATING ARE ALSO IN
QUESTION. HOWEVER...STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING AND PROXIMITY TO
SURFACE LOW MAY RESULT IN A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS DESPITE ONLY
MARGINAL CAPE VALUES. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 35-45 KNOTS AND
VEERING/INCREASING WINDS WITH HEIGHT SUGGEST A RISK OF ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS/BOWS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

..HART/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/15/2010

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KGID [151247]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 151247
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
746 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0746 AM HEAVY RAIN ALTON 39.47N 98.95W
09/15/2010 M2.60 INCH OSBORNE KS CO-OP OBSERVER

OVERNIGHT RAINFALL TOTAL

&&

$$

PFANNKUCH

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KICT [151233]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 151233
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
733 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0732 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 E BROOKVILLE 38.77N 97.79W
09/15/2010 M1.40 INCH SALINE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL AS OF 630AM.

&&

$$

JMB

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KGID [151158]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 151158
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
658 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0657 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 WNW PLAINVILLE 39.26N 99.37W
09/15/2010 M1.80 INCH ROOKS KS CO-OP OBSERVER

OVERNIGHT RAINFALL TOTAL

&&

$$

PFANNKUCH

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KGID [151138]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 151138
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
637 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0634 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 S WOODSTON 39.44N 99.10W
09/15/2010 M2.09 INCH ROOKS KS OTHER FEDERAL

6-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FROM AUTOMATED GAUGE ALONG SOUTH
FORK SOLOMON RIVER

0634 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SSE OSBORNE 39.43N 98.69W
09/15/2010 M1.68 INCH OSBORNE KS AMATEUR RADIO

6-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FROM AUTOMATED GAUGE ALONG SOUTH
FORK SOLOMON RIVER

&&

$$

PFANNKUCH

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KGID [151130]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 151130
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
630 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0629 AM HEAVY RAIN PORTIS 39.56N 98.69W
09/15/2010 M2.51 INCH OSBORNE KS OTHER FEDERAL

6-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL ON AUTOMATED GAUGE ALONG NORTH FORK
SOLOMON RIVER

&&

$$

PFANNKUCH

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KICT [151058]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 151058
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
558 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0543 AM FLASH FLOOD RUSSELL 38.89N 98.85W
09/15/2010 RUSSELL KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL ROADS IMPASSABLE IN CENTRAL RUSSELL COUNTY.

0548 AM HEAVY RAIN RUSSELL 38.89N 98.85W
09/15/2010 M4.36 INCH RUSSELL KS ASOS

&&

$$

EPS

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KICT [151033]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 151033
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
533 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0334 AM FLOOD 1 SSE RUSSELL 38.87N 98.85W
09/15/2010 RUSSELL KS TRAINED SPOTTER

WATER OVER HIGHWAY 281 SOUTH OF RUSSELL. CREEKS AND
DRAINAGE DITCHES IN RUSSEL RUNNING BACK FULL.

&&

$$

BDK

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KGID [151022]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KGID 151022
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
522 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1250 AM NON-TSTM WND GST LEXINGTON AIRPORT 40.79N 99.78W
09/15/2010 M55.00 MPH DAWSON NE AWOS

WIND GUST ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF TOWN.
TEMPERATURE ALSO JUMPED ABOUT 10 DEGREES AND DEWPOINT
DROPPED ABOUT 20 DEGREES.

0210 AM NON-TSTM WND GST HOLDREGE AIRPORT 40.45N 99.34W
09/15/2010 M45.00 MPH PHELPS NE AWOS

WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA.

0215 AM NON-TSTM WND GST KEARNEY AIRPORT 40.73N 99.01W
09/15/2010 M49.00 MPH BUFFALO NE AWOS

WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
KEARNEY AREA.

0228 AM TSTM WND GST NATOMA 39.19N 99.02W
09/15/2010 M46.00 MPH OSBORNE KS BROADCAST MEDIA

MEASURED BY KSN WEATHER LAB. TIME APPROXIMATE. ALSO 0.82
INCHES OF RAIN.

0243 AM NON-TSTM WND GST GRAND ISLAND 40.92N 98.37W
09/15/2010 M47.00 MPH HALL NE ASOS

47 MPH WIND GUST ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA.

0255 AM NON-TSTM WND GST GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT 40.97N 98.32W
09/15/2010 M60.00 MPH HALL NE ASOS

60 MPH WINDS AT THE AIPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

0306 AM NON-TSTM WND GST GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT 40.97N 98.32W
09/15/2010 M61.00 MPH HALL NE ASOS

PEAK WIND WITH OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT SHOWERS.

0335 AM NON-TSTM WND GST KEARNEY AIRPORT 40.73N 99.01W
09/15/2010 M51.00 MPH BUFFALO NE AWOS

0448 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 N HASTINGS 40.65N 98.39W
09/15/2010 M48.00 MPH ADAMS NE OFFICIAL NWS OBS

MEASURED AT THE NWS OFFICE NORTH OF HASTINGS.

0448 AM NON-TSTM WND GST AURORA 40.87N 98.00W
09/15/2010 M60.00 MPH HAMILTON NE AWOS

0510 AM NON-TSTM WND GST YORK AIRPORT 40.90N 97.62W
09/15/2010 M53.00 MPH YORK NE AWOS

&&

$$

NWS

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KGID [151021]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 151021
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
521 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0448 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 N HASTINGS 40.65N 98.39W
09/15/2010 M48.00 MPH ADAMS NE OFFICIAL NWS OBS

MEASURED AT THE NWS OFFICE NORTH OF HASTINGS.

0510 AM NON-TSTM WND GST YORK AIRPORT 40.90N 97.62W
09/15/2010 M53.00 MPH YORK NE AWOS

&&

$$

NWS

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KBYZ [151004]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBYZ 151004
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
404 AM MDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0635 PM HAIL 7 WNW MELVILLE 46.14N 110.09W
09/14/2010 M0.75 INCH SWEET GRASS MT TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BRS

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 663

WWUS20 KWNS 151003
SEL3
SPC WW 151003
KSZ000-NEZ000-151000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 663
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
503 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 663 ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

KANSAS
NEBRASKA

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KGID [150950]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KGID 150950
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
450 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1250 AM NON-TSTM WND GST LEXINGTON AIRPORT 40.79N 99.78W
09/15/2010 M55.00 MPH DAWSON NE AWOS

WIND GUST ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF TOWN.
TEMPERATURE ALSO JUMPED ABOUT 10 DEGREES AND DEWPOINT
DROPPED ABOUT 20 DEGREES.

0210 AM NON-TSTM WND GST HOLDREGE AIRPORT 40.45N 99.34W
09/15/2010 M45.00 MPH PHELPS NE AWOS

WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA.

0215 AM NON-TSTM WND GST KEARNEY AIRPORT 40.73N 99.01W
09/15/2010 M49.00 MPH BUFFALO NE AWOS

WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
KEARNEY AREA.

0228 AM TSTM WND GST NATOMA 39.19N 99.02W
09/15/2010 M46.00 MPH OSBORNE KS BROADCAST MEDIA

MEASURED BY KSN WEATHER LAB. TIME APPROXIMATE. ALSO 0.82
INCHES OF RAIN.

0243 AM NON-TSTM WND GST GRAND ISLAND 40.92N 98.37W
09/15/2010 M47.00 MPH HALL NE ASOS

47 MPH WIND GUST ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA.

0255 AM NON-TSTM WND GST GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT 40.97N 98.32W
09/15/2010 M60.00 MPH HALL NE ASOS

60 MPH WINDS AT THE AIPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

0306 AM NON-TSTM WND GST GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT 40.97N 98.32W
09/15/2010 M61.00 MPH HALL NE ASOS

PEAK WIND WITH OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT SHOWERS.

0335 AM NON-TSTM WND GST KEARNEY AIRPORT 40.73N 99.01W
09/15/2010 M51.00 MPH BUFFALO NE AWOS

0448 AM NON-TSTM WND GST AURORA 40.87N 98.00W
09/15/2010 M60.00 MPH HAMILTON NE AWOS

&&

$$

NWS

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KGID [150949]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 150949
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
449 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0448 AM NON-TSTM WND GST AURORA 40.87N 98.00W
09/15/2010 M60 MPH HAMILTON NE AWOS

&&

$$

NWS

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 662

WWUS20 KWNS 150929
SEL2
SPC WW 150929
SDZ000-151000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 662
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
429 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 662 ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH DAKOTA

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KGID [150924]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 150924
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
424 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0410 AM NON-TSTM WND GST AURORA AIRPORT 40.89N 97.99W
09/15/2010 M49 MPH HAMILTON NE AWOS

&&

$$

NWS

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KICT [150919]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 150919
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
419 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 AM HAIL 6 S ASH GROVE 39.08N 98.35W
09/15/2010 E0.88 INCH LINCOLN KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

BDK

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1833

ACUS11 KWNS 150901
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150900
SDZ000-151000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1833
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SD.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 662...

VALID 150900Z - 151000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 662
CONTINUES.

PER COORD W/ABR AND FSD...WW HAS BEEN CLEARED FOR CENTRAL-NRN AND
ERN PORTIONS OF SD. REMAINDER WW MAY BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED
10Z EXPIRATION.

EARLIER STG-SVR TSTMS OVER SERN SD HAVE MOVED EWD OVER PORTIONS SRN
MN AND NWRN IA AND WEAKENED...ATOP STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND E OF
STRONGEST 850 MB FLOW. MEANWHILE...ELEVATED TSTMS ARE INCREASING IN
COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL SD...RESULTING FROM UPSCALE
EVOLUTION OF EARLIER SVR TSTMS OVER RAP AREA. THIS ACTIVITY --
SUPPORTED BY WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON NOSE OF 35-45 KT LLJ --
IS LIKELY TO PERSIST AND MOVE FARTHER EWD/ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL-ERN
SD DURING REMAINDER PRE-DAWN HOURS...AND ISOLATED HAIL NEAR SVR
LEVELS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...GUST POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH
AS
1. FOREGOING BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO STABILIZE DIABATICALLY AND
2. ACTIVITY MOVES INTO REGIME OF STRENGTHENING MLCINH WITH EWD
EXTENT...ALSO RELATED TO OUTFLOW EFFECTS OF EARLIER CONVECTION.

..EDWARDS.. 09/15/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...

LAT...LON 43799904 43650039 43840149 44460197 45350132 45799956
45569799 44839737 44149797 43799904

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 150852
SWOD48
SPC AC 150851

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

VALID 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BRINGING A COLD FRONT -- ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP CANADIAN
UPPER LOW -- ACROSS THE ERN U.S. DAY 4 /SAT. 9-18/. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT...A COUPLE OF DAYS OF WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IS FORECAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM. AS THIS
SYSTEM BEGINS CROSSING THE ROCKIES DAY 5 /SUN. 9-19/....SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS IS PROGGED IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WITH A MIGRATING
CYCLONE THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS
THROUGH DAYS 7-8.

LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY ACCOMPANY THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE
DAY 4...THOUGH VERY MODEST INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THE THREAT DOES NOT
WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF A THREAT AREA THIS FORECAST.

SOMEWHAT GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE NEXT SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...AS AMPLE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SUGGESTS A LITTLE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DAILY AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. SUFFICIENT FLOW ALOFT PROGGED
INVOF THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SCATTERED STRONGER
STORMS...BUT THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENTLY WIDESPREAD OR
SIGNIFICANT ATTM TO WARRANT THE INTRODUCTION OF AN OUTLOOK AREA.

..GOSS.. 09/15/2010

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KICT [150852]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 150852
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
352 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0345 AM HAIL 6 N SUSANK 38.73N 98.77W
09/15/2010 E0.88 INCH RUSSELL KS TRAINED SPOTTER

DIME SIZE HAIL.

&&

$$

BDK

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KGID [150841]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KGID 150841
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
341 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1250 AM NON-TSTM WND GST LEXINGTON AIRPORT 40.79N 99.78W
09/15/2010 M55.00 MPH DAWSON NE AWOS

WIND GUST ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF TOWN.
TEMPERATURE ALSO JUMPED ABOUT 10 DEGREES AND DEWPOINT
DROPPED ABOUT 20 DEGREES.

0210 AM NON-TSTM WND GST HOLDREGE AIRPORT 40.45N 99.34W
09/15/2010 M45.00 MPH PHELPS NE AWOS

WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA.

0215 AM NON-TSTM WND GST KEARNEY AIRPORT 40.73N 99.01W
09/15/2010 M49.00 MPH BUFFALO NE AWOS

WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
KEARNEY AREA.

0228 AM TSTM WND GST NATOMA 39.19N 99.02W
09/15/2010 M46.00 MPH OSBORNE KS BROADCAST MEDIA

MEASURED BY KSN WEATHER LAB. TIME APPROXIMATE. ALSO 0.82
INCHES OF RAIN.

0243 AM NON-TSTM WND GST GRAND ISLAND 40.92N 98.37W
09/15/2010 M47.00 MPH HALL NE ASOS

47 MPH WIND GUST ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA.

0255 AM NON-TSTM WND GST GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT 40.97N 98.32W
09/15/2010 M60.00 MPH HALL NE ASOS

60 MPH WINDS AT THE AIPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

0306 AM NON-TSTM WND GST GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT 40.97N 98.32W
09/15/2010 M61.00 MPH HALL NE ASOS

PEAK WIND WITH OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT SHOWERS.

0335 AM NON-TSTM WND GST KEARNEY AIRPORT 40.73N 99.01W
09/15/2010 M51.00 MPH BUFFALO NE AWOS

&&

$$

NWS

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KGID [150841]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 150841
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
341 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0335 AM NON-TSTM WND GST KEARNEY AIRPORT 40.73N 99.01W
09/15/2010 M51 MPH BUFFALO NE AWOS

&&

$$

NWS

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KGID [150838]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KGID 150838
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
338 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1250 AM NON-TSTM WND GST LEXINGTON AIRPORT 40.79N 99.78W
09/15/2010 M55.00 MPH DAWSON NE AWOS

WIND GUST ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF TOWN.
TEMPERATURE ALSO JUMPED ABOUT 10 DEGREES AND DEWPOINT
DROPPED ABOUT 20 DEGREES.

0210 AM NON-TSTM WND GST HOLDREGE AIRPORT 40.45N 99.34W
09/15/2010 M45.00 MPH PHELPS NE AWOS

WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA.

0215 AM NON-TSTM WND GST KEARNEY AIRPORT 40.73N 99.01W
09/15/2010 M49.00 MPH BUFFALO NE AWOS

WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
KEARNEY AREA.

0228 AM TSTM WND GST NATOMA 39.19N 99.02W
09/15/2010 M46.00 MPH OSBORNE KS BROADCAST MEDIA

MEASURED BY KSN WEATHER LAB. TIME APPROXIMATE. ALSO 0.82
INCHES OF RAIN.

0243 AM NON-TSTM WND GST GRAND ISLAND 40.92N 98.37W
09/15/2010 M47.00 MPH HALL NE ASOS

47 MPH WIND GUST ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA.

0255 AM NON-TSTM WND GST GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT 40.97N 98.32W
09/15/2010 M60.00 MPH HALL NE ASOS

60 MPH WINDS AT THE AIPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

0306 AM NON-TSTM WND GST GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT 40.97N 98.32W
09/15/2010 M61.00 MPH HALL NE ASOS

PEAK WIND WITH OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT SHOWERS.

&&

$$

NWS

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KGID [150837]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 150837
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
337 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0306 AM NON-TSTM WND GST GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT 40.97N 98.32W
09/15/2010 M61 MPH HALL NE ASOS

PEAK WIND WITH OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT SHOWERS.

&&

$$

NWS

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KICT [150828]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 150828
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
328 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0323 AM HAIL 2 SW ASH GROVE 39.15N 98.38W
09/15/2010 E0.75 INCH LINCOLN KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

ACTUALLY DIME-SIZED WITH 40-45 MPH WINDS.

&&

$$

EPS

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KDDC [150822]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 150822
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
322 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0308 AM FLOOD 2 E ELLIS 38.94N 99.52W
09/15/2010 ELLIS KS EMERGENCY MNGR

THE ELLIS COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED WATER OVER
THE ROAD ON OLD HIGHWAY 40 TWO MILES EAST OF ELLIS. THERE
WAS ALSO A REPORT OF MINOR STREET FLOODING IN THE TOWN OF
ELLIS.

&&

$$

JRJ

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KGID [150800]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 150800
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
300 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0255 AM NON-TSTM WND GST GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT 40.97N 98.32W
09/15/2010 M60 MPH HALL NE ASOS

60 MPH WINDS AT THE AIPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK EDGE
OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

$$

NWS

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KICT [150800]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 150800
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
300 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 AM FLOOD GORHAM 38.88N 99.02W
09/15/2010 RUSSELL KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

STREET FLOODING IN PROGRESS. DEPTH UNKNOWN.

&&

$$

EPS

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KGID [150751]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 150751
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
250 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0243 AM TSTM WND GST GRAND ISLAND 40.92N 98.37W
09/15/2010 M47 MPH HALL NE ASOS

47 MPH WIND GUST ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA.

&&

$$

NWS

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KGID [150729]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 150729
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
229 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0228 AM TSTM WND GST NATOMA 39.19N 99.02W
09/15/2010 M46 MPH OSBORNE KS BROADCAST MEDIA

MEASURED BY KSN WEATHER LAB. TIME APPROXIMATE. ALSO 0.82
INCHES OF RAIN.

&&

$$

NWS

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KMPX [150727]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 150727
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
227 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0220 AM HAIL MONTEVIDEO 44.95N 95.72W
09/15/2010 M0.75 INCH CHIPPEWA MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

KME

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KGID [150717]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 150717
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
217 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0215 AM NON-TSTM WND GST KEARNEY AIRPORT 40.73N 99.01W
09/15/2010 M49 MPH BUFFALO NE AWOS

WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
KEARNEY AREA.

&&

$$

NWS

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KGID [150716]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 150716
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
216 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0210 AM NON-TSTM WND GST HOLDREGE AIRPORT 40.45N 99.34W
09/15/2010 M45 MPH PHELPS NE AWOS

WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

$$

NWS

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 150714
SWODY3
SPC AC 150713

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE FAST/LARGELY WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NRN HALF
OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE SURFACE STORM
SYSTEM. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE STEADILY EWD
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT MORE SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE SEWD-MOVING PORTION OF THIS FRONT MAY SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

...MID MO VALLEY REGION...
SOME NWD RETURN OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED INTO THE MID MO
VALLEY...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHIFTING SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THIS
AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING WILL SUPPORT MODEST
DESTABILIZATION...AND THE SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE MID MO VALLEY REGION NOT ONLY
NEAR THE NRN FRINGE OF GREATER MOISTURE RETURN BUT LIKEWISE NEAR THE
SRN EXTENT OF STRONGER FLOW FIELD ALOFT...THE RESULTING KINEMATIC
AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE
INTRODUCTION OF A LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT AREA. STORMS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE INCREASE
OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET...BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
LARGELY LIMITED TO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

..GOSS.. 09/15/2010

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 661

WWUS20 KWNS 150704
SEL1
SPC WW 150703
COZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-150700-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 661
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
103 AM MDT WED SEP 15 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 661 ISSUED AT 630 PM MDT FOR PORTIONS OF

COLORADO
KANSAS
NEBRASKA

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KGLD [150700]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KGLD 150700
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
100 AM MDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0633 PM TSTM WND GST 6 E JOES 39.66N 102.57W
09/14/2010 M58.00 MPH YUMA CO MESONET

MEASURED BY CWOP SITE

0643 PM TSTM WND GST 6 E JOES 39.66N 102.57W
09/14/2010 M76.00 MPH YUMA CO MESONET

MEASURED BY CWOP SITE

0720 PM HAIL 13 N RULETON 39.53N 101.91W
09/14/2010 M1.00 INCH SHERMAN KS TRAINED SPOTTER

0805 PM TORNADO 9 N RULETON 39.47N 101.86W
09/14/2010 SHERMAN KS NWS EMPLOYEE

OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED LARGE CONE TORNADO WHICH
HAS SINCE BECOME RAIN WRAPPED.

0826 PM TSTM WND GST 13 N GOODLAND 39.53N 101.67W
09/14/2010 M60.00 MPH SHERMAN KS MESONET

0830 PM HAIL 3 N GOODLAND 39.40N 101.71W
09/14/2010 E1.00 INCH SHERMAN KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

0832 PM TSTM WND GST 1 NNE GOODLAND 39.37N 101.70W
09/14/2010 M78.00 MPH SHERMAN KS ASOS

0839 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 7 NE GOODLAND 39.42N 101.62W
09/14/2010 SHERMAN KS PUBLIC

LAW ENFORCEMENT RELAYED PUBLIC REPORT OF FUNNEL CLOUD

0852 PM HAIL SE EDSON 39.33N 101.54W
09/14/2010 E1.75 INCH SHERMAN KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

REPORTED AT EDSON EXIT ON INTERSTATE 70 BY KANSAS STATE
TROOPER

0852 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 6 N EDSON 39.42N 101.53W
09/14/2010 SHERMAN KS STORM CHASER

WELL DEFINED WALL CLOUD WITH PERIODIC CONE FUNNEL

0914 PM HAIL BREWSTER 39.36N 101.38W
09/14/2010 E0.88 INCH THOMAS KS TRAINED SPOTTER

0915 PM HAIL 1 N BREWSTER 39.38N 101.38W
09/14/2010 E1.00 INCH THOMAS KS PUBLIC

0935 PM TORNADO 9 SSE BREWSTER 39.25N 101.31W
09/14/2010 THOMAS KS STORM CHASER

0952 PM HAIL 7 N WINONA 39.16N 101.25W
09/14/2010 E1.75 INCH THOMAS KS TRAINED SPOTTER

0955 PM TORNADO 8 NE WINONA 39.16N 101.16W
09/14/2010 THOMAS KS STORM CHASER

1018 PM HAIL 4 W MONUMENT 39.10N 101.07W
09/14/2010 E0.88 INCH LOGAN KS EMERGENCY MNGR

1032 PM HAIL 3 ENE MONUMENT 39.11N 100.94W
09/14/2010 E1.00 INCH LOGAN KS CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

PMM

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1832

ACUS11 KWNS 150639
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150639
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-150845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1832
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN NEB...CENTRAL-NRN KS...EXTREME NERN
CO.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 661...663...

VALID 150639Z - 150845Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
661...663...CONTINUES.

PRIMARY MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE ESEWD 25-30 KT FROM NWRN INTO
CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL KS. EARLIER SUPERCELL IN GLD-GOVE REGION HAS
MERGED WITH TAIL END OF QLCS...WHILE SEGMENT FARTHER N BETWEEN
HLC-HYS HAS BOWED OUT WITH WELL-DEFINED REAR-INFLOW JET EVIDENT IN
BASE VELOCITY DATA. GUSTS APCHG SVR LIMITS -- 47 KT -- WERE MEASURED
AT HLC AT 605Z...ALTHOUGH MOST INTENSE PART OF BOWING SEGMENT PASSED
BETWEEN THERE AND I-70. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCINH CONTINUING TO
STRENGTHEN GRADUALLY IN PRECONVECTIVE WARM SECTOR...BECAUSE OF SFC
DIABATIC COOLING. HOWEVER...FORCED ASCENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF
QLCS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN SVR POTENTIAL WITH FAVORABLY MOIST
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR BOOSTED TO LFC. BAND OF TSTMS W THROUGH S OF
SLN...DEVELOPING ALONG ERN LIMB OF 35-45 KT LLJ THAT IS FCST TO VEER
SOMEWHAT FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS...HELPING TO MAINTAIN LOW-LEVEL WAA
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF MCS. AT SOME INDEFINITE
POINT...MLCINH SHOULD BECOME TOO STG FOR APPRECIABLE SFC-BASED SVR
THREAT...HOWEVER...PRIND DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AT
LEAST ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS BEFORE SCHEDULED 10Z EXPIRATION OF WW 663.

SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STG/ISOLATED SVR TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN ZONE
OF ELEVATED WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT...ATOP OUTFLOW POOL FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AROUND 1000 J/KG MUCAPE
LINGERS IN THAT ENVIRONMENT...OVER PORTIONS SRN NEB AND NRN
KS...ALONG WITH 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN SUPPORT OF ELEVATED TSTM
ORGANIZATION. THIS REGIME MAY BE SUPPORTING ACTIVITY EVIDENT OVER
NERN CO AND FROM IML TO SE OF MCK...AS OF 630Z. FOR THIS
REASON...WW 663 CLEARANCE MIGHT NOT NEED TO BE IMMEDIATE BEHIND MCS.
HOWEVER...THREAT APPEARS MRGL ENOUGH THAT REMAINDER WW 661 MAY BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 07Z AS SCHEDULED.

..EDWARDS.. 09/15/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON 37699763 37940115 39790277 40440273 40870105 40159828
39259744 37789682 37699763

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KUNR [150616]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 150616
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1216 AM MDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 AM HAIL BLACK HAWK 44.15N 103.32W
09/15/2010 M1.00 INCH MEADE SD BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

$$

GRICHARD

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KUNR [150612]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 150612
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1212 AM MDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 AM HAIL BLACK HAWK 44.15N 103.32W
09/15/2010 M1.00 INCH MEADE SD BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

$$

MSMITH

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KGID [150608]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 150608
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
108 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1250 AM NON-TSTM WND GST LEXINGTON AIRPORT 40.79N 99.78W
09/15/2010 M55.00 MPH DAWSON NE AWOS

WIND GUST ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF TOWN.
TEMPERATURE ALSO JUMPED ABOUT 10 DEGREES AND DEWPOINT
DROPPED ABOUT 20 DEGREES.

&&

$$

NWS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 150601
SWODY1
SPC AC 150559

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST/LOWER MO VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
A QUASI-ZONAL LARGE SCALE FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY THE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCEMENT/MODEST
AMPLIFICATION OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT.

...CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST/LOWER MO VALLEY...
INITIALLY...MULTIPLE ONGOING TSTM CLUSTERS AND POTENTIAL MCS/S WILL
BE ONGOING THIS MORNING...ONE AREA PROBABLY ACROSS EASTERN KS AND/OR
PERHAPS NORTHERN OK/WESTERN MO...IN ADDITION TO A CORRIDOR FROM SD
TO SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD POSE A MODEST SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT THROUGH THE
MORNING...AIDED BY SUSTAINED DUAL SEGMENTS OF A LOW LEVEL
JET/ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION REGIME.

OTHERWISE...A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WILL ATTEMPT TO RETREAT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY/MIDWEST TODAY...AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING/AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A MODESTLY DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW AND EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. OF
NOTE...THIS WARM SECTOR RETREAT MAY VERY WELL BE AUGMENTED BY EARLY
DAY/ONGOING TSTMS...WHICH PROVIDES LIMITED CERTAINTY ON THE TRUE
EXTENT OF AN APPRECIABLE WARM/MOIST SECTOR LATER TODAY.
NONETHELESS...IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT EARLY DAY TSTMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH S/SW PERIPHERAL AND/OR NEAR-COLD FRONTAL
SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT BY THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A
RECOVERING/DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. AMID UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION/SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KS/NORTHEAST OK TO WESTERN/CENTRAL MO.

FARTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST...GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
PERSISTENCE OF EARLY DAY STORMS/EXTENT OF THE TRUE MARITIME WARM
SECTOR LATER TODAY...SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON IS
MORE UNCERTAIN ACROSS FAR EASTERN NEB/MUCH OF IA INTO THE UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...ASIDE FROM A SEVERE HAIL THREAT EARLY
TODAY...OTHER SOMEWHAT LOWER TOPPED STORMS MAY DEVELOP/INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT. IF
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCURS IN THESE AREAS /500-1000 J PER KG
MLCAPE OR GREATER/...A MULTI-FACETED SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

OVERALL...STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER FLOW AND 35-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/LINEAR
BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS. GIVEN THE SUSTENANCE OF MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOME TORNADO THREAT MAY
EXIST AS WELL...PERHAPS MAINLY AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
LOW/S AND/OR IN VICINITY OF THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT.

..GUYER/SMITH.. 09/15/2010

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 150555
SWODY2
SPC AC 150554

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SWWD
INTO THE TN VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EWD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS...IN OTHERWISE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WHICH
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO SHIFT QUICKLY
EWD...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND/MID-ATLANTIC COASTS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE BOUNDARY WILL SAG MORE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS
THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS...WITH THE ENTIRE FRONT
SERVING AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION THIS PERIOD.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH AND TN VALLEYS...
MODEST DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...AS DAYTIME HEATING BENEATH
COOLING TEMPERATURES AT MID LEVELS CONTRIBUTES THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ROUGHLY 500-750 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE. THOUGH THE MODEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR...STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH UPSCALE LINEAR GROWTH
AIDED BY RELATIVELY STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH THREAT FOR LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS THUS ANTICIPATED FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION SWWD INTO THE TN VALLEY.

..GOSS.. 09/15/2010

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KABR [150541]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 150541
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1241 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1229 AM HAIL HENRY 44.88N 97.46W
09/15/2010 E1.00 INCH CODINGTON SD LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

TEAM ABR

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