SWODY2
SPC AC 111710
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CST THU NOV 11 2010
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
POSITIVE-TILT MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WILL SWING EWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON FRIDAY...THEN BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE NRN
STREAM UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS BUILDING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SEWD INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY AND THE GREAT PLAINS BEHIND
A WEAK SFC LOW MIGRATING NEWD ALONG THE FRONT ON DAY 2. PORTIONS OF
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
...SRN PLAINS...
TONGUE OF PRECIPITABLE WATERS AVERAGING 1 TO 1.25 INCHES GATHERING
IN E TX WILL SURGE NWD TODAY AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
MID-LEVEL WAVE. POSITIVE-TILT NATURE TO THE IMPULSE WILL ONLY
RESULT IN A MODEST INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THERMAL BUOYANCY WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND IMPROVING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL
RESULT IN A MARGINALLY-SUPPORTIVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT
AMIDST MLCAPES 200-500 J/KG. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE IF
SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS CAN FORM WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR FROM
NCNTRL TX INTO CNTRL/ERN OK FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE BECOMING
UNDERCUT BY THE SURGING COLD FRONT.
PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS/HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE
CRITERIA. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY AND THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING.
..RACY.. 11/11/2010
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