KGGW [270458]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 270458
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
957 PM MST MON DEC 26 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NW GLASGOW 48.24N 106.70W
12/26/2011 M58.00 MPH VALLEY MT NWS EMPLOYEE

4.3 MILES NW OF GLASGOW A 58 MPH WIND GUST OCCURED
APPROXIMATELY 7 AM.

&&

$$

RSMITH

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 270457
SWODY3
SPC AC 270456

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1056 PM CST MON DEC 26 2011

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED...ON AVERAGE...BY
BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS ERN 1/2 OF CONUS...WHILE LOW-AMPLITUDE
RIDGING MOVES EWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES...AND LATE-PERIOD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AFFECTS PAC NW. IN WAKE OF STG DAY-1 FROPA OFFSHORE
ATLC...WHICH WILL PENETRATE INTO NW CARIBBEAN...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN TOO STABLE AND/OR DRY FOR SVR POTENTIAL ACROSS
CONUS...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHALLOW TSTMS MAY APCH WA COAST AFTER 30/00Z
IN ASSOCIATION WITH PAC PERTURBATION.

..EDWARDS.. 12/27/2011

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 270455
SWODY2
SPC AC 270454

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1054 PM CST MON DEC 26 2011

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE UNDERWAY AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING
NRN-STREAM TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS...CONTRIBUTING TO EWD
ACCELERATION OF INVETERATE MID-UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER ARKLATEX
REGION. SRN-STREAM PERTURBATION WILL DEAMPLIFY AND MOVE OFFSHORE
DAY-1...WHILE NRN-STREAM SYSTEM DIGS SEWD TOWARD CAROLINAS THEN
PIVOTS EWD OVER ATLC. AS THIS OCCURS...STRENGTHENING SFC CYCLONE
WILL MOVE NEWD OVER INLAND MID-ATLC REGION...MOVING NEWD DOWN ST
LAWRENCE RIVER REGION EARLY DAY-2. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
OFFSHORE ALL BUT PORTIONS ERN NEW ENGLAND BY 28/12Z. THAT PORTION
OF WARM SECTOR CONTAINING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT TSTMS SHOULD
BE OFFSHORE CAPE COD BY START OF PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...IN WAKE OF
FRONT...AIR MASSES WILL REMAIN TOO DRY AND/OR STABLE FOR TSTMS.

..EDWARDS.. 12/27/2011

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2394

ACUS11 KWNS 270246
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270246
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-270415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2394
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0846 PM CST MON DEC 26 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE...FAR SERN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 270246Z - 270415Z

POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL GULF COAST. ALTHOUGH LIMITED IN SPATIAL
EXTENT...THE THREAT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A NARROW TORNADO WATCH.
THE PROBABILITY OF A WW ISSUANCE BY 04Z IS 40 PERCENT.

02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1014 MB CYCLONE JUST SE OF PIB WITH A
WARM FRONT DRAPED SEWD TO NEAR PNS INTO THE NERN GULF. DEW POINTS
HAVE INCREASED TO BETWEEN 64-66 F IN THE NARROW INLAND WARM SECTOR
WITH OFFSHORE BUOYS HOLDING NEAR 67 F. MODIFIED 00Z LIX RAOB AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MEAGER
MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG. GIVEN 0-1 KM SRH AOA 200 M2/S2 PER MOB/EVX VWP
DATA...AND FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH EARLY TUE...STRONG SHEAR
WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. LINEAR CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT S OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE ALONG WITH SEMI-DISCRETE TSTMS
DEVELOPING S OF MOBILE BAY COULD YIELD DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF
TORNADO. HOWEVER...INLAND PENETRATION OF THE RICHER MOIST SECTOR AND
CONSEQUENTLY THE TORNADO THREAT MAY BE RATHER LIMITED N OF THE 31ST
PARALLEL.

..GRAMS.. 12/27/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON 31298873 31358843 31438799 31328682 31018587 30698581
30308588 30268673 30168766 30178874 31298873

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KFGF [270244]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 270244
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
844 PM CST MON DEC 26 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0843 PM SNOW MADDOCK 47.96N 99.53W
12/26/2011 M2.0 INCH BENSON ND TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW ENDED. ROADS SLICK.

&&

$$

HOPKINS

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KGGW [270202]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KGGW 270202
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
701 PM MST MON DEC 26 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0225 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 SE DEVILS CREEK RECRE 47.56N 107.53W
12/26/2011 M58.00 MPH GARFIELD MT MESONET

THE SOUTH SAWMILL CREEK RAWS RECORDED SUSTAINED WSW WINDS
AT 35 MPH.

0300 AM NON-TSTM WND GST WHITEWATER 48.76N 107.63W
12/26/2011 M62.00 MPH PHILLIPS MT MESONET

0300 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 ENE ZORTMAN 47.96N 108.31W
12/26/2011 M58.00 MPH PHILLIPS MT MESONET

WINDS SUSTAINED AT 42 MPH REPORTED AT THE MALTA SOUTH DOT
STATION.

0355 AM NON-TSTM WND GST SCOBEY 48.79N 105.42W
12/26/2011 M62.00 MPH DANIELS MT AWOS

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 46 MPH REPORTED AT THE SCOBEY AIRPORT.

0444 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 WSW THOENY 48.87N 106.95W
12/26/2011 M58.00 MPH VALLEY MT MESONET

BLUFF CREEK RAWS HAS REPORTED SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 30
TO 40 MPH SINCE 244 AM.

0500 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 12 SSE OPHEIM 48.70N 106.31W
12/26/2011 M66.00 MPH VALLEY MT CO-OP OBSERVER

WIND GUST TO 66 MPH MEASURED.

0533 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SW BREDETTE 48.43N 105.44W
12/26/2011 M55.00 MPH ROOSEVELT MT MESONET

WINDS 47 GUSTING TO 55 MPH.

0610 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG WOLF POINT 48.09N 105.64W
12/26/2011 ROOSEVELT MT OTHER FEDERAL

ENTIRE TOWN OF WOLF POINT IS WITHOUT POWER.

0640 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 S LARSLAN 48.55N 106.19W
12/26/2011 E55.00 MPH VALLEY MT NWS EMPLOYEE

WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED 50 TO 55 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT
LEAST 35 MPH.

0722 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 WNW U L BEND 47.53N 108.05W
12/26/2011 M50.00 MPH PETROLEUM MT MESONET

WIND GUST TO 50 MPH.

0738 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 SW FORT KIPP 48.10N 104.80W
12/26/2011 M53.00 MPH RICHLAND MT MESONET

WINDS 30 MPH GUSTING TO 53 MPH.

&&

$$

RSMITH

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KGGW [270043]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KGGW 270043
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
542 PM MST MON DEC 26 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0355 AM NON-TSTM WND GST SCOBEY 48.79N 105.42W
12/26/2011 M62.00 MPH DANIELS MT AWOS

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 46 MPH REPORTED AT THE SCOBEY AIRPORT.

0444 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 WSW THOENY 48.87N 106.95W
12/26/2011 M58.00 MPH VALLEY MT MESONET

BLUFF CREEK RAWS HAS REPORTED SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 30
TO 40 MPH SINCE 244 AM.

0500 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 12 SSE OPHEIM 48.70N 106.31W
12/26/2011 M66.00 MPH VALLEY MT CO-OP OBSERVER

WIND GUST TO 66 MPH MEASURED.

0533 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SW BREDETTE 48.43N 105.44W
12/26/2011 M55.00 MPH ROOSEVELT MT MESONET

WINDS 47 GUSTING TO 55 MPH.

0610 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG WOLF POINT 48.09N 105.64W
12/26/2011 ROOSEVELT MT OTHER FEDERAL

ENTIRE TOWN OF WOLF POINT IS WITHOUT POWER.

0640 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 S LARSLAN 48.55N 106.19W
12/26/2011 E55.00 MPH VALLEY MT NWS EMPLOYEE

WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED 50 TO 55 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT
LEAST 35 MPH.

0722 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 WNW U L BEND 47.53N 108.05W
12/26/2011 M50.00 MPH PETROLEUM MT MESONET

WIND GUST TO 50 MPH.

0738 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 SW FORT KIPP 48.10N 104.80W
12/26/2011 M53.00 MPH RICHLAND MT MESONET

WINDS 30 MPH GUSTING TO 53 MPH.

&&

$$

RMORGAN

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KJAN [270017]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 270017
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
616 PM CST MON DEC 26 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM FLASH FLOOD 7 SE HAZLEHURST 31.79N 90.31W
12/26/2011 COPIAH MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER WAS COVERING SOUTH SARDIS ROAD AND BROOME ROAD.

&&

$$

JFAIRLY

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KTFX [262121]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KTFX 262121
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
221 PM MST MON DEC 26 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1045 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NNE MONARCH 47.14N 110.81W
12/25/2011 M56 MPH CASCADE MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

56 MPH WIND GUST AT MONARCH CANYON DOT SENSOR

1100 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 WSW SAINT MARY 48.69N 113.71W
12/25/2011 M113 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

LOGAN PASS VISITOR CENTER REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS AT
71 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 110 TO 113 MPH BETWEEN DEC
25 11PM AND DEC 26 1AM.

1111 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SSE GEYSER 47.25N 110.48W
12/25/2011 M52 MPH JUDITH BASIN MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

GEYSER MT DOT SITE REPORTS GUSTS TO 52 MPH JUST AFTER
DEC 25 11PM.

1150 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 E GEYSER 47.28N 110.35W
12/25/2011 M58 MPH JUDITH BASIN MT MESONET

58 MPH WIND GUST AT BRAVO RAWS

1152 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 SE HILGER 47.18N 109.25W
12/25/2011 M79 MPH FERGUS MT MESONET

79 MPH WIND GUST AT JUDITH PEAK RAWS...ELEV 6428 FT.5

1158 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 8 W WHITLASH 48.93N 111.42W
12/25/2011 M61 MPH TOOLE MT PUBLIC

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 61 MPH MEASURED.

1245 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 W BYNUM 47.98N 112.59W
12/26/2011 M75 MPH TETON MT MESONET

DELLWO SITE REACHED 75 MPH GUSTS FROM 1245AM THROUGH
1AM AND HIT 70MPH AGAIN AROUND 3AM.

1251 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 NNW SUNBURST 48.96N 111.94W
12/26/2011 M52 MPH TOOLE MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SWEETGRASS MT DOT REPORTED GUSTS TO 52 MPH JUST BEFORE
1AM.

1253 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E ROY 47.33N 108.92W
12/26/2011 M59 MPH FERGUS MT MESONET

59 MPH WIND GUST AT OSCAR RAWS

1254 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 W TOWNSEND 46.31N 111.70W
12/26/2011 M64 MPH BROADWATER MT MESONET

ELKHORN RAWS AT 6010 FT RECORDED GUSTS TO 64 MPH JUST
BEFORE 1AM.

0111 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.19W
12/26/2011 M63 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

63 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST EAST OF EAST
GLACIER PARK.

0129 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 17 W PENDROY 48.06N 112.67W
12/26/2011 M77 MPH TETON MT PUBLIC

WIND GUST OF 77 MPH MEASURED.

0205 AM NON-TSTM WND GST HEART BUTTE 48.29N 112.84W
12/26/2011 M60 MPH PONDERA MT MESONET

60 MPH WIND GUST AT HEART BUTTE

0300 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 S CHINOOK 48.43N 109.23W
12/26/2011 M64 MPH BLAINE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

64 MPH WIND GUST ABOUT 11 MILES SOUTH OF CHINOOK.

0400 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 12 E BOZEMAN 45.67N 110.80W
12/26/2011 M52 MPH GALLATIN MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

BOZEMAN PASS MT DOT REPORTED 52 MPH GUSTS AROUND 4AM.

&&

$$

NJL

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KTFX [262119]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KTFX 262119
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
219 PM MST MON DEC 26 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1045 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NNE MONARCH 47.14N 110.81W
12/25/2011 M56 MPH CASCADE MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

56 MPH WIND GUST AT MONARCH CANYON DOT SENSOR

1100 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 WSW SAINT MARY 48.69N 113.71W
12/25/2011 M113 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

LOGAN PASS VISITOR CENTER REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS AT
71 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 110 TO 113 MPH BETWEEN DEC
25 11PM AND DEC 26 1AM.

1111 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SSE GEYSER 47.25N 110.48W
12/25/2011 M52 MPH JUDITH BASIN MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

GEYSER MT DOT SITE REPORTS GUSTS TO 52 MPH JUST AFTER
DEC 25 11PM.

1150 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 E GEYSER 47.28N 110.35W
12/25/2011 M58 MPH JUDITH BASIN MT MESONET

58 MPH WIND GUST AT BRAVO RAWS

1152 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 SE HILGER 47.18N 109.25W
12/25/2011 M79 MPH FERGUS MT MESONET

79 MPH WIND GUST AT JUDITH PEAK RAWS...ELEV 6428 FT.5

1245 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 W BYNUM 47.98N 112.59W
12/26/2011 M75 MPH TETON MT MESONET

DELLWO SITE REACHED 75 MPH GUSTS FROM 1245AM THROUGH
1AM AND HIT 70MPH AGAIN AROUND 3AM.

1251 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 NNW SUNBURST 48.96N 111.94W
12/26/2011 M52 MPH TOOLE MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SWEETGRASS MT DOT REPORTED GUSTS TO 52 MPH JUST BEFORE
1AM.

1253 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E ROY 47.33N 108.92W
12/26/2011 M59 MPH FERGUS MT MESONET

59 MPH WIND GUST AT OSCAR RAWS

1254 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 W TOWNSEND 46.31N 111.70W
12/26/2011 M64 MPH BROADWATER MT MESONET

ELKHORN RAWS AT 6010 FT RECORDED GUSTS TO 64 MPH JUST
BEFORE 1AM.

0111 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.19W
12/26/2011 M63 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

63 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST EAST OF EAST
GLACIER PARK.

0205 AM NON-TSTM WND GST HEART BUTTE 48.29N 112.84W
12/26/2011 M60 MPH PONDERA MT MESONET

60 MPH WIND GUST AT HEART BUTTE

0300 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 S CHINOOK 48.43N 109.23W
12/26/2011 M64 MPH BLAINE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

64 MPH WIND GUST ABOUT 11 MILES SOUTH OF CHINOOK.

0400 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 12 E BOZEMAN 45.67N 110.80W
12/26/2011 M52 MPH GALLATIN MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

BOZEMAN PASS MT DOT REPORTED 52 MPH GUSTS AROUND 4AM.

&&

$$

NJL

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KBIS [262100]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 262100
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
300 PM CST MON DEC 26 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0248 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BISMARCK 46.81N 100.78W
12/26/2011 M53 MPH BURLEIGH ND ASOS

REPORTED AT BISMARCK AIRPORT.

&&

$$

RK

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KBIS [262057]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 262057
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
257 PM CST MON DEC 26 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0153 PM NON-TSTM WND GST MINOT 48.23N 101.30W
12/26/2011 M50 MPH WARD ND ASOS

REPORTED AT MINOT AIRPORT

&&

$$

RK

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KBIS [262055]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 262055
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
254 PM CST MON DEC 26 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 12 WNW AMIDON 46.54N 103.55W
12/26/2011 M52 MPH SLOPE ND MESONET

REPORTED FROM SAND CREEK RAWS STATION.

&&

$$

RK

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KBIS [262051]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 262051
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
251 PM CST MON DEC 26 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0115 PM NON-TSTM WND GST MANDAN 46.83N 100.89W
12/26/2011 M54 MPH MORTON ND AWOS

WIND GUST AT MANDAN AIRPORT.

&&

$$

RK

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 261939
SWODY1
SPC AC 261937

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 PM CST MON DEC 26 2011

VALID 262000Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SRN AL AND NWRN
FL...

...SRN AL/NWRN FL...
WILL MAINTAIN THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS OVER THIS AREA
FOR LATER TONIGHT AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD TOWARD THE LOWER
MS VALLEY. LATEST SURFACE DATA INDICATE WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NWD
TO JUST SOUTH OF THE SERN LA COAST...AND AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
INLAND TONIGHT POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS OVER COASTAL
SECTIONS WILL INCREASE. MARGINAL LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY ARE
EXPECTED TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT BUT ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRENGTHENING
LOW- AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

..WEISS.. 12/26/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0948 AM CST MON DEC 26 2011/

MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME PROGRESSIVE TODAY AND
TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY TUE MORNING. AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES...A RAPID INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS IS
EXPECTED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY LIES ABOUT 100 MI SOUTH OF THE MS/AL
COAST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...BRINGING A THREAT OF LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS TO PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST REGION.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT MAKE
IT VERY FAR INLAND BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS AREA.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 06-12Z TONIGHT FROM MOB EASTWARD TO
NEAR TLH SHOW VERY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
FOR SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES. EVEN WITH MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS
MAKING IT ONSHORE...INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF ONLY 200-300 J/KG. NEVERTHELESS...THE STRENGTH OF THE
WIND FIELDS AND FAVORABLE DYNAMIC FORCING PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
EVIDENCE TO ADD A SMALL SLIGHT RISK TO THIS AREA. LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS OR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS.

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KCYS [261755]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KCYS 261755
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1054 AM MST MON DEC 26 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0220 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 ESE ARLINGTON 41.55N 106.08W
12/26/2011 M65.00 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

COOPER COVE WYDOT SITE

0256 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 3 NW ARLINGTON 41.62N 106.25W
12/26/2011 M40.00 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

AT 341 AM MST, MAX SUSTAINED WIND WAS 43 MPH AND MAX GUST
WAS 57 MPH.

0410 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 NW ELK MOUNTAIN 41.76N 106.51W
12/26/2011 M59.00 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

HALLECK RIDGE WYDOT SITE

0445 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ESE ARLINGTON 41.58N 106.17W
12/26/2011 M58.00 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ARLINGTON EAST WYDOT SITE

0500 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 19 SE LARAMIE 41.12N 105.32W
12/26/2011 M59.00 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

BUFORD UPR SITE

0501 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 SW CHEYENNE 41.04N 104.93W
12/26/2011 M60.00 MPH LARAMIE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

WYO HILL WYDOT SITE

0515 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BORDEAUX 41.95N 104.95W
12/26/2011 E57.00 MPH PLATTE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED 43 MPH

0545 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 21 WSW CHEYENNE 41.03N 105.16W
12/26/2011 M59.00 MPH LARAMIE WY MESONET

LYNCH UPR SITE

0616 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 19 SE ARLINGTON 41.40N 105.95W
12/26/2011 E58.00 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

QUEALY DOME WYDOT SITE...MAX SUSTAINED WIND 49 MPH.

0621 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 15 NNE CENTENNIAL 41.50N 106.00W
12/26/2011 M63.00 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

STROUSS HILL WYDOT SITE

0626 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 15 ESE ARLINGTON 41.51N 105.94W
12/26/2011 E63.00 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

STROUSS HILL WYDOT SITE

0726 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
12/26/2011 M60.00 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

$$

LIEBL

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KCYS [261753]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 261753
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1053 AM MST MON DEC 26 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0616 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 19 SE ARLINGTON 41.40N 105.95W
12/26/2011 E58.00 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

QUEALY DOME WYDOT SITE...MAX SUSTAINED WIND 49 MPH.

0626 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 15 ESE ARLINGTON 41.51N 105.94W
12/26/2011 E63.00 MPH ALBANY WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

STROUSS HILL WYDOT SITE

&&

$$

LIEBL

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KCYS [261734]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 261734
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1033 AM MST MON DEC 26 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BORDEAUX 41.95N 104.95W
12/26/2011 E57.00 MPH PLATTE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED 43 MPH

0726 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
12/26/2011 M60.00 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

$$

LIEBL

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KGGW [261723]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 261723
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1023 AM MST MON DEC 26 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 12 SSE OPHEIM 48.70N 106.31W
12/26/2011 M66 MPH VALLEY MT CO-OP OBSERVER

WIND GUST TO 66 MPH MEASURED.

&&

$$

RMORGAN

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 261712
SWODY2
SPC AC 261711

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CST MON DEC 26 2011

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SERN GA...THE ERN
CAROLINAS AND EXTREME SERN VA...

...SYNOPSIS...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER W TX BEGINNING TO
MOVE EWD IN RESPONSE TO UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING EWD
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN INTO
A NEWD MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT CONTINUES NEWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND NERN STATES TOMORROW...WHILE THE
CURRENT NRN PLAINS TROUGHS DIGS ESEWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST
IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST SYSTEM.

AT THE SURFACE...INCREASING PRESSURE FALLS WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS
THE ERN STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE RETREATING HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A COMPLEX SERIES OF LOW CENTERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGHS ARE FORECAST OVER
THE ERN STATES. A SRN LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY AT 27/12Z IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NEWD ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS REACHING THE DELMARVA
REGION BY 28/00Z...BEFORE CONSOLIDATING WITH THE NRN LOW AND
DEEPENING OVER THE NERN STATES TOMORROW NIGHT. A RAPIDLY MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES AND MIDDLE/SRN
ATLANTIC COAST BY EVENING...WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ALONG THE
SRN ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE DAY. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE
SCALE ASCENT COUPLED WITH MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND VERY STRONG LOW- AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A
RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MINIMAL
INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

...NRN FL/SRN GA...ERN CAROLINAS INTO EXTREME SERN VA...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD OVER PARTS OF NWRN FL AND SWRN GA ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS NRN FL AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY MID/LATE MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO A LESS
UNSTABLE AIR MASS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WILL BE AUGMENTED BY AN INFLUX OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AS A VERY
STRONG /60-70 KT/ 850 MB JET INTENSIFIES AND LIFTS NEWD FROM GA
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND ERN VA DURING THE DAY...WITH 60-64F SURFACE
DEW POINTS SPREADING INTO SERN GA AND THE ERN CAROLINAS. OVERALL
INSTABILITY WILL BE TEMPERED BY INTENSE SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT/NEAR
MOST-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES...WITH MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY AOB 500
J/KG. HOWEVER...A FEW BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER FROM SERN GA INTO THE
ERN CAROLINAS MAY PERMIT AREAS OF LOCALLY STRONGER DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOW TOP STORMS TO INTENSIFY BY MID-LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS. THE VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ALSO MAY
SUPPORT EMBEDDED ROTATING STRUCTURES...WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH RAPIDLY MOVING LINE SEGMENTS AND ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS. THERE WILL ALSO BE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BRIEF
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO END BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE WEST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE.

..WEISS.. 12/26/2011

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KBIS [261702]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 261702
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1102 AM CST MON DEC 26 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0756 AM NON-TSTM WND GST CROSBY 48.91N 103.29W
12/26/2011 M52.00 MPH DIVIDE ND MESONET

0910 AM NON-TSTM WND GST RAY 48.34N 103.17W
12/26/2011 M50.00 MPH WILLIAMS ND MESONET

&&

$$

LHUBER

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KBIS [261623]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 261623
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1023 AM CST MON DEC 26 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1015 AM NON-TSTM WND GST WATFORD CITY 47.80N 103.28W
12/26/2011 M50.00 MPH MCKENZIE ND MESONET

1015 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BEACH 46.92N 104.00W
12/26/2011 M50.00 MPH GOLDEN VALLEY ND MESONET

&&

$$

LHUBER

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KGGW [261619]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 261619
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
919 AM MST MON DEC 26 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0533 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SW BREDETTE 48.43N 105.44W
12/26/2011 M55.00 MPH ROOSEVELT MT MESONET

WINDS 47 GUSTING TO 55 MPH.

0640 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 S LARSLAN 48.55N 106.19W
12/26/2011 E55.00 MPH VALLEY MT NWS EMPLOYEE

WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED 50 TO 55 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT
LEAST 35 MPH.

0722 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 WNW U L BEND 47.53N 108.05W
12/26/2011 M50.00 MPH PETROLEUM MT MESONET

WIND GUST TO 50 MPH.

0738 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 SW FORT KIPP 48.10N 104.80W
12/26/2011 M53.00 MPH RICHLAND MT MESONET

WINDS 30 MPH GUSTING TO 53 MPH.

&&

$$

RMORGAN

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KBYZ [261151]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBYZ 261151
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
450 AM MST MON DEC 26 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0345 PM NON-TSTM WND GST LIVINGSTON 45.66N 110.56W
12/25/2011 M61 MPH PARK MT MESONET

SEVERAL GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH BETWEN 345 PM AND 515 PM.

&&

$$

BET

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KCYS [261149]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 261149
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
448 AM MST MON DEC 26 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0410 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 NW ELK MOUNTAIN 41.76N 106.51W
12/26/2011 M59 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

HALLECK RIDGE WYDOT SITE

&&

$$

ZFINCH

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KBYZ [261148]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBYZ 261148
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
447 AM MST MON DEC 26 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 S JUDITH GAP 46.63N 109.75W
12/26/2011 M65 MPH WHEATLAND MT MESONET

DOT SITE MEASURED GUSTS BETWEEN 55 AND 65 MPH SEVERAL
TIMES FROM 300 AM TO 345 AM. HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTS ONE
SEMI TRUCK TIPOVER AROUND 340 AM.

&&

$$

BET

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KCYS [261146]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 261146
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
445 AM MST MON DEC 26 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0256 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 3 NW ARLINGTON 41.62N 106.25W
12/26/2011 M40 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

AT 341 AM MST, MAX SUSTAINED WIND WAS 43 MPH AND MAX GUST
WAS 57 MPH.

&&

$$

ZFINCH

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KCYS [261103]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 261103
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
403 AM MST MON DEC 26 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0220 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 ESE ARLINGTON 41.55N 106.08W
12/26/2011 M65 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

COOPER COVE WYDOT SITE

&&

$$

ZFINCH

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KGGW [261035]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 261035
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
335 AM MST MON DEC 26 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0225 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 SE DEVILS CREEK RECRE 47.56N 107.53W
12/26/2011 M58.00 MPH GARFIELD MT MESONET

THE SOUTH SAWMILL CREEK RAWS RECORDED SUSTAINED WSW WINDS
AT 35 MPH.

0300 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 ENE ZORTMAN 47.96N 108.31W
12/26/2011 M58.00 MPH PHILLIPS MT MESONET

WINDS SUSTAINED AT 42 MPH REPORTED AT THE MALTA SOUTH DOT
STATION.

&&

$$

ASCHNETZ

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 260931
SWOD48
SPC AC 260930

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CST MON DEC 26 2011

VALID 291200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AFTER LATE DAY-2 FROPA OFF ATLC COAST...A FEW DAYS DEVOID OF
ORGANIZED SVR RISK ARE PROBABLE...WHILE MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES
PATTERN OVER ERN 1/2-2/3 OF CONUS. NEXT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
PERTURBATION MAY MOVE ESEWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY REGIONS AROUND DAYS 6-7/31ST-2ND. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE
AMPLITUDE/PHASE-SPEED UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.
OPERATIONAL SPECTRAL/ECMWF AND MOST MREF SOLUTIONS ALSO INDICATE
ROBUST LOW-LEVEL THETAE WILL BE DISPLACED TOO FAR EQUATORWARD IN
MOST SCENARIOS TO SUPPORT AOA 30% SVR RISK ATTM.

..EDWARDS.. 12/26/2011

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KTFX [260919]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 260919
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
219 AM MST MON DEC 26 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0205 AM NON-TSTM WND GST HEART BUTTE 48.29N 112.84W
12/26/2011 M60 MPH PONDERA MT MESONET

60 MPH WIND GUST AT HEART BUTTE

&&

$$

HOENISCH

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KTFX [260804]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 260804
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
102 AM MST MON DEC 26 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1253 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E ROY 47.33N 108.92W
12/26/2011 M59 MPH FERGUS MT MESONET

59 MPH WIND GUST AT OSCAR RAWS

&&

$$

HOENISCH

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 260724
SWODY3
SPC AC 260723

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 AM CST MON DEC 26 2011

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN FCST TO FEATURE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MOST
OF CENTRAL/ERN CONUS DAY-3. THIS WILL OCCUR IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVES
DISCUSSED IN DAY-2 OUTLOOK...WITH REINFORCEMENT OF LOW HEIGHTS BY
SMALL-AMPLITUDE/NW-FLOW PERTURBATIONS ORIGINATING OVER N PAC. STG
COLD FROPA IS FCST BY START OF PERIOD OVER ALL OF ATLC COAST EXCEPT
NEW ENGLAND...AWAY FROM WHICH SFC CYCLONE WILL EJECT NEWD EARLY IN
PERIOD. FOLLOWING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PENETRATE TO NWRN
CARIBBEAN...AIR MASS ACROSS CONUS WILL BE TOO DRY AND/OR STABLE FOR
SVR POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD.

..EDWARDS.. 12/26/2011

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KTFX [260712]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 260712
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1211 AM MST MON DEC 26 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1153 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E ROY 47.33N 108.92W
12/25/2011 M49 MPH FERGUS MT MESONET

49 MPH WIND GUST AT OSCAR RAWS

&&

$$

HOENISCH

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KTFX [260710]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 260710
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1209 AM MST MON DEC 26 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1152 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 SE HILGER 47.18N 109.25W
12/25/2011 M79 MPH FERGUS MT MESONET

79 MPH WIND GUST AT JUDITH PEAK RAWS...ELEV 6428 FT.5

&&

$$

HOENISCH

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KTFX [260708]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 260708
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1207 AM MST MON DEC 26 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1150 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 E GEYSER 47.28N 110.35W
12/25/2011 M58 MPH JUDITH BASIN MT MESONET

58 MPH WIND GUST AT BRAVO RAWS

&&

$$

HOENISCH

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KTFX [260706]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 260706
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1206 AM MST MON DEC 26 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1045 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NNE MONARCH 47.14N 110.81W
12/25/2011 M56 MPH CASCADE MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

56 MPH WIND GUST AT MONARCH CANYON DOT SENSOR

&&

$$

HOENISCH

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 260648
SWODY2
SPC AC 260647

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CST MON DEC 26 2011

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS COASTAL PLAIN
GA/SC/SRN NC....

...SYNOPSIS...
NRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH - NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY OVER NRN ROCKIES -- IS FCST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS
DAY-1...TO BE ESSENTIALLY REPLACED BY CLOSELY TRAILING/UPSTREAM
PERTURBATION NOW FARTHER NW OVER BC/AB ROCKIES. BY
27/12Z...TRAILING PERTURBATION WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS MN/IA WHILE LEAD
WAVE DEAMPLIFIES ACROSS ERN ONT. HEIGHT FALLS RELATED TO THIS
PROCESS WILL EXTEND SWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-UPPER MS
VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...LONG-LIVED MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE --
NOW MEANDERING ERRATICALLY OVER ERN BORDER OF NM -- IS FCST TO EJECT
EWD OVER RED RIVER REGION AND AR DAY-1. EXPECT OPEN-WAVE TRANSITION
TO BE UNDERWAY WHEN PERTURBATION REACHES MS AND WRN TN BY 27/12Z.
DURING DAY-2...THIS TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY CONSIDERABLY...EJECTING
NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLC REGION. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS TRAILING NRN-STREAM SYSTEM BECOMES PRIMARY ANCHOR FOR
PROGRESSIVE TROUGHING OVER SRN APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS. THIS
TROUGH...IN TURN..SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLC REGION
BETWEEN 28/00Z AND 28/12Z.

AT SFC...LOW NOW OVER NWRN GULF WILL MOVE INLAND DAY-1...FAR
OUTPACING POLEWARD PROGRESS OF MARINE/WARM FRONT...AND REACHING NEAR
MID TN OR CENTRAL/ERN KY BY START OF PERIOD. COLD FRONT BY THEN
SHOULD EXTEND SSEWD OVER AL TO WRN PORTIONS FL PANHANDLE. FRONT
SHOULD ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS ERN GULF AND NEWD OVER CENTRAL/SRN
APPALACHIANS AS CYCLONE EJECTS NEWD AND STRENGTHENS OVER MID-ATLC
REGION. BY 28/00Z...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM TRIPLE POINT INVOF
DELMARVA SSWWD OVER NC COAST AND WRN/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. FRONT
SHOULD CLEAR ALL OF ATLC COAST BUT ERN NEW ENGLAND AS DEEPENING
CYCLONE MOVES NEWD OVER MAINE/SRN QUE REGION.

...SERN CONUS...
BAND OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF SFC COLD
FRONT AT START OF PERIOD...CARRYING OVER MRGL TORNADO AND
WIND-DAMAGE POTENTIAL FROM LAST FEW HOURS OF DAY-1 PERIOD.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT FOREGOING AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY
TO SUPPORT EXTENSION OF AT LEAST MRGL SVR PROBABILITIES SEWD ACROSS
PORTIONS WRN/NRN FL AND SRN GA. PROBABILITIES SUPPORTING
CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK ARE INTRODUCED FARTHER N WHERE STRONGEST
COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND AT LEAST MRGL SFC-BASED INSTABILITY ARE
EXPECTED FROM MIDDAY INTO LATE AFTERNOON LOCAL TIME. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION OVER ERN GULF AND ATLC SHOULD SUPPLY WARM SECTOR WITH
LOW-60S SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS MUCH OF AREA CONTAINING SVR
PROBABILITIES...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR MID-60S OVER WRN FL AND
COASTAL SC/SRN NC. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WEAKNESS OF
LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES...KEEPING MLCAPE BELOW 500 J/KG OVER
MOST AREAS.

MEANWHILE...STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS AND LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS SRN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN REGION OF
GA/CAROLINAS. PREFRONTAL HODOGRAPHS ARE EXPECTED TO ENLARGE BENEATH
50-60 KT LLJ...COMBINING WITH STG SLY SFC FLOW COMPONENT OFF ATLC
WITH POTENTIAL FOR 0-1 KM SRH 300-500 J/KG. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH MAIN STORM MODE IS LIKELY TO BE
QUASI-LINEAR.

PRIND WEAKENING OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LIFT WITH SWD EXTENT...AND
OF BOUNDARY-LAYER INSTABILITY WITH TIME...WILL REDUCE SVR THREAT
OVER ERN/SRN FL RELATIVE TO AREAS FARTHER N AND NW.

..EDWARDS.. 12/26/2011

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KMLB [260612]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 260612
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
111 AM EST MON DEC 26 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 PM RIP CURRENTS 5 NNW FORT PIERCE INLET 27.55N 80.32W
12/25/2011 ST. LUCIE FL BROADCAST MEDIA

*** 1 FATAL *** 26 YEAR OLD MALE TOURIST MISSING AND
PRESUMED DROWNED. WAS ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SWIMMER WHO
WAS SUCCESSFULLY RESCUED. AVALON STATE PARK.

&&

$$

JP

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 260542
SWODY1
SPC AC 260540

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CST SUN DEC 25 2011

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY OPEN/ACCELERATE EASTWARD TODAY.
AS SPLIT UPPER FLOW OVER THE CONUS STEADILY WANES...THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MS
VALLEY TONIGHT AS IT BEGINS TO COME INTO PHASE WITH A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
AND AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS DEVELOPS INLAND...THE PRIMARY
TSTM/SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST STATES. DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PRECLUDE TSTM
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
AS THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO OPEN/ACCELERATE
EASTWARD OVER NORTH TX...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL GRADUALLY OCCUR
FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF
COAST STATES AND EVENTUALLY THE TN VALLEY WHILE A COLD FRONT
OTHERWISE SLOWLY ACCELERATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A SECONDARY
SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO A MARINE WARM FRONT THAT WILL
SLOWLY NEAR THE COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM.
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THIS MARINE WARM FRONT TO PRINCIPALLY
REMAIN OFFSHORE DURING THE PERIOD AS SOUTHEAST STATES
ANTICYCLONE/CONTINENTAL INFLUENCES WILL BE SLOW TO
ABATE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT SHOWERY
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE MARINE FRONT. THAT SAID...NEAR-COASTAL
PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST LA/SOUTHERN MS COULD SEE A MARITIME
AIRMASS SPREAD INLAND TODAY AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...AND THE SAME FOR COASTAL SOUTHERN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE
TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.

WITH THE EFFECTIVE INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE MARINE FRONT SERVING AS A
DEMARCATION FOR SURFACE BASED TSTM POTENTIAL...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE
RISK WILL EXIST MAINLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY FOR COASTAL
PORTIONS OF MS/AL/FL PANHANDLE GIVEN THE ARRIVAL OF MORE APPRECIABLE
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND ASSOCIATED CYCLOGENESIS/POTENTIAL
MOISTENING INLAND. EVEN WHILE LAPSE RATES/BUOYANCY WILL BE MEAGER
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE MARINE FRONT...STRONG/VEERING WIND PROFILES MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO SUSTAINED STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. IN NEAR-COASTAL
AREAS /ROUGHLY UP TO 50-80 MILES INLAND/...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
ROTATING STORMS WILL EXIST TONIGHT AHEAD OF WHAT SHOULD BE A MORE
LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE NEAR THE EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
OVERALL...DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH
THE SEVERE THREAT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED/MARGINAL
GIVEN THE MODEST NATURE OF MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION INLAND.

..GUYER/ROGERS.. 12/26/2011

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