KAKQ [050321]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 050321
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1121 PM EDT WED MAY 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0836 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 5 NW SILVER BEACH 37.54N 76.02W
05/04/2011 E39.00 MPH ANZ631 VA BUOY

34 KT WIND GUST

0900 AM MARINE TSTM WIND E CAPE HENRY 36.93N 76.01W
05/04/2011 E41.00 MPH ANZ634 VA BUOY

36 KT WIND GUST

&&

$$

MMONTE

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KBMX [050316]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 050316
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1015 PM CDT WED MAY 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0507 AM TORNADO 3 SSE BANKSTON 33.63N 87.65W
04/27/2011 F1 FAYETTE AL NWS STORM SURVEY

AN EF-1 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ALONG STATE ROAD 18...4 MI
SOUTHWEST OF BERRY...DAMAGING SEVERAL BARNS AND SNAPPING
OR UPROOTING SEVERAL TREES. THE TORNADO TRAVELLED
NORTHEAST...CAUSING WALL AND ROOF DAMAGE TO SEVERAL
BUSINESSES AND HOMES IN BERRY...RESULTING IN 4 INJURIES.
THE TORNADO LIFTED NORTHEAST OF BERRY NEAR SIMMONS ROAD.
THE TRACK WAS 7.5 MI LONG...200 YDS WIDE...WITH PEAK
WINDS OF 100 MPH.

&&

$$

KSUMRALL

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KBMX [050305]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 050305
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1005 PM CDT WED MAY 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 AM TORNADO 3 SSE MCSHAN 33.35N 88.12W
04/27/2011 F2 PICKENS AL NWS STORM SURVEY

AN EF-2 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN NEAR PHOENIX AVE NEAR MCSHAN
AND UPROOTED OR SNAPPED THOUSANDS OF TREES IN A RURAL
FORESTLAND AREA. THE TORNADO TRAVELED NORTHEAST CROSSING
HIGHWAY 82 NORTHWEST OF REFORM AND LIFTED NEAR BIG HILL
CHURCH ROAD. ALONG THE PATH...ADDITIONAL TREE DAMAGE AND
MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO SEVERAL HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS
OCCURRED. ONE HOME SUSTAINED MINOR WALL AND SIGNIFICANT
ROOF DAMAGE. THE TRACK WAS 15.5 MI LONG...1000 YDS
WIDE...WITH PEAK WINDS OF 120 MPH.

&&

$$

KSUMRALL

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KBMX [050114]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 050114
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
814 PM CDT WED MAY 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 AM TORNADO 3 ESE THE WYE 33.60N 87.33W
04/27/2011 F3 WALKER AL NWS STORM SURVEY

AN EF-3...POSSIBLY HIGHER...TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN RURAL
SOUTHWESTERN WALKER COUNTY AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AS IT
MOVED NNE THROUGH THE ALDRIDGE AND CORDOVA
COMMUNITIES...DISSIPATING 2.5 MILES WSW OF SIPSEY. THE
TORNADO DAMAGED AT LEAST 4 HOMES AND DESTROYED SEVERAL
MOBILE HOMES. MANY BUILDINGS IN DOWNTOWN CORDOVA ALSO
SUFFERED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. THE TRACK WAS 19 MI
LONG...300 YDS WIDE...WITH PEAK WINDS OF AT LEAST 140
MPH.

&&

$$

KSUMRALL

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KLWX [050111]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 050111
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
910 PM EDT WED MAY 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 AM TORNADO 1 NW POOLESVILLE 39.15N 77.42W
04/28/2011 MONTGOMERY MD NWS STORM SURVEY

EF-0 TORNADO CONFIRMED NORTH OF POOLESVILLE. DAMAGE TO
TREES AND A FENCE WAS OBSERVED...AND A TRAMPOLINE WAS
MANGLED...LOFTED AND DEPOSITED ATOP A POWER POLE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1100612

$$

KRAMAR

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KMEG [050052]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMEG 050052
LSRMEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
752 PM CDT WED MAY 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0751 PM FLOOD HENNING 35.67N 89.58W
05/04/2011 LAUDERDALE TN PUBLIC

HOME ON COLD CREEK FLOODED IN ABOUT 3 TO 4 FEET OF WATER.

&&

$$

CDG

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 050045
SWODY1
SPC AC 050043

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 PM CDT WED MAY 04 2011

VALID 050100Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

LIGHTNING REMAINS SPARSE ACROSS THIS CONUS THIS EVENING DUE
PRIMARILY TO MEAGER INSTABILITY WHERE LARGE SCALE FORCING WOULD
OTHERWISE SUPPORT DEEP-MOIST CONVECTION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE IN INTENSITY
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS CONVECTION MEANDERS ABOUT WITHIN A
WEAKENING ZONE OF CONVERGENCE.

ELSEWHERE...ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY YET PRODUCE AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...OTHERWISE INTERIOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS MAY OCCASIONALLY GROW TO DEPTHS
DEEP ENOUGH FOR LIGHTNING DISCHARGE.

..DARROW.. 05/05/2011

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KJAN [041408]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 041408
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
908 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0229 AM TORNADO 11 WSW LOUISVILLE 33.06N 89.23W
04/27/2011 F1 WINSTON MS NWS STORM SURVEY

THIS TORNADO REMAINED OVER RURAL AREAS AND
UPROOTED/SNAPPED MANY TREES ALONG THE 4 MILE PATH. ONE
TREE DID FALL ON A HOUSE AND THE ROOF WAS BLOWN OFF A
SHED. PATH WIDTH WAS 150 YDS...MAX WINDS 95 MPH.

0247 AM TORNADO 3 NE LOUISVILLE 33.15N 89.02W
04/27/2011 F1 WINSTON MS NWS STORM SURVEY

THIS TORNADO SNAPPED/UPROOTED NUMEROUS TREES ALONG ITS
PATH. ONE TREE WAS ON A HOUSE WHICH CAUSED SIGNIFICANT
ROOF DAMAGE. AT LEAST TWO OUTBUILDINGS WERE SEVERELY
DAMAGED AS WELL. PATH LENGTH 8 MI...WIDTH 200 YDS...MAX
WINDS 110 MPH.

0318 AM TORNADO 1 NW BROOKSVILLE 33.24N 88.59W
04/27/2011 F1 NOXUBEE MS NWS STORM SURVEY

NUMEROUS TREES WERE DOWNED ALONG THE 6.25 MI PATH. A
GRAIN BIN WAS KNOCKED OVER AND SOME MINOR ROOF DAMAGE
OCCURRED TO A COUPLE FARM BUILDINGS. A FEW POWER POLES
WERE ALSO DOWN. PATH WIDTH 150 YDS...MAX WINDS 95 MPH.

&&

$$

CME

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KGSP [041357]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 041357
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
957 AM EDT WED MAY 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0958 PM TSTM WND DMG 7 ESE CLOVER 35.07N 81.11W
05/03/2011 YORK SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

SC HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTS A TREE IN THE ROADWAY ON HW-49
JUST BEFORE THE INTERSECTION WITH HW-55. TIME ESTIMATED
FROM RADAR DATA.

&&

$$

BSH

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KRNK [041327]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 041327
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
926 AM EDT WED MAY 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0652 PM HAIL 2 SE LAUREL SPGS 36.39N 81.25W
05/03/2011 E1.75 INCH ASHE NC PUBLIC

HAIL BEGAN 652 PM AND LASTED 5 MINUTES. MOSTLY DIME TO
QUARTER SIZED...A FEW GOLF BALL SIZED.

&&

$$

JJACKSON

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KCAE [041320]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 041320
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
919 AM EDT WED MAY 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1054 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 W LANCASTER 34.73N 80.83W
05/03/2011 LANCASTER SC DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

DOT REPORTED SEVERAL TREES DOWN ON RIVERSIDE ROAD JUST
OFF HWY 9 WEST OF LANCASTER.

&&

$$

SJN

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KCAE [041318]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 041318
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
918 AM EDT WED MAY 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1042 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 NE PEAK 34.27N 81.28W
05/03/2011 FAIRFIELD SC DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

DOT REPORTED SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN THE JENKINSVILLE AREA
OF SOUTHWEST FAIRFIELD COUNTY.

&&

$$

SJN

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KCAE [041314]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 041314
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
913 AM EDT WED MAY 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1038 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 SSW BLACKSTOCK 34.49N 81.20W
05/03/2011 FAIRFIELD SC DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

DOT REPORTED SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN NORTHWEST FAIRFIELD
COUNTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST OF BLAIR.

&&

$$

SJN

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KGSP [041313]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 041313
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
912 AM EDT WED MAY 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0745 PM TSTM WND DMG 8 NNW FALLSTON 35.54N 81.56W
05/03/2011 CLEVELAND NC EMERGENCY MNGR

CLEVELAND COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS MULTIPLE
TREES BLOWN DOWN ALONG CASAR ROAD IN NORTHERN CLEVELAND
COUNTY. MOST OF THE DAMAGE OCCURRED NEAR THE INTERSECTION
OF BIG HILL ROAD AND CASAR ROAD...CURT LEDFORD
ROAD...CREEKWOOD ROAD...AND JOE Z ROAD. ALSO...THE TIN
ROOF OF A WOODEN OUTBUILDING WAS BLOWN OFF ON CREEKWOOD
ROAD.

&&

$$

BSH

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 041255
SWODY1
SPC AC 041253

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2011

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
ERN TROUGH/UPR LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY E...REACHING THE HUDSON
VLY/MID ATLANTIC CST BY 12Z THU AS UPSTREAM TROUGH PROGRESSES ESE
FROM THE NRN HI PLNS TO THE ERN DAKOTAS/NEB. IN WAKE OF ERN
TROUGH...EXPANSIVE SFC RIDGE OVER THE OH AND LWR MS VLY REGION WILL
KEEP THE LWR LVLS DRY OVER MOST OF THE CONUS.

THE HI PLNS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
ADVANCE E/SE ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. THE FRONT SHOULD
EXTEND FROM THE UPR MS VLY SW THROUGH ERN KS AND WRN OK INTO THE W
TX BY 12Z THURSDAY.

...CNTRL/NRN PLNS...
LEAD IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER SCALE HI PLNS TROUGH WILL TRACK
E FROM WRN SD/NEB THIS MORNING INTO ERN SD/NEB BY EVE. ASCENT WITH
THIS FEATURE...AND LOW LVL UPLIFT ALONG ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT...SHOULD FOSTER SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM NRN/WRN KS NEWD
INTO ERN NE/SE SD LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. LOW TO MID LVL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP...BUT SPARSE MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
CONVECTION FAIRLY HIGH-BASED. COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY MODEST LOW
LVL WINDS...ANY SVR WEATHER THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLD/BRIEF.

N AND W OF THE ABOVE STORMS...OTHER MORE WIDELY SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS LIKELY WILL FORM BENEATH UPSTREAM IMPULSE AS THAT FEATURE
CONTINUES ESE FROM PARTS OF ID AND WRN WY INTO ERN WY...NRN CO...AND
WRN SD LATER TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE STRONGLY DIURNAL.

...FAR ERN NC TO SE NEW ENGLAND...
A FEW CLUSTERS OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS LIKELY WILL PERSIST IN
POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT FROM ERN NC TO SE NEW ENGLAND BEFORE
FRONTAL ZONE CLEARS THE CST LATER TODAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A FEW
SFC-BASED STORMS MAY INITIATE IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING OVER FAR
ERN NC THIS MORNING. SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO
SUPPORT SMALL SCALE BOWING STRUCTURES WITH ANY SUCH ACTIVITY. BUT
WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT DURATION/COVERAGE OF ANY ATTENDANT SVR
THREAT.

...CNTRL/SRN FL...
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ERN U.S. TROUGH WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SEWD
WITHIN WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT OVER CNTRL FL TODAY...WHERE SFC
HEATING WILL YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY. SCTD DIURNAL STORMS APPEAR
LIKELY BOTH ALONG THE FRONT...AND INVOF SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. A
STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO MAY OCCUR THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY.

..CORFIDI/ROGERS.. 05/04/2011

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KCTP [041247]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KCTP 041247
LSRCTP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
845 AM EDT WED MAY 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM FLASH FLOOD MILL CREEK 40.44N 77.93W
05/03/2011 HUNTINGDON PA 911 CALL CENTER

SUGAR GROVE RD CLOSED

0518 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 NNW SAXTON 40.25N 78.27W
05/03/2011 BEDFORD PA 911 CALL CENTER

ROUTE 26 CLOSED AT INTERSECTION OF ROUTE 164

0628 PM FLASH FLOOD MAITLAND 40.63N 77.50W
05/03/2011 MIFFLIN PA 911 CALL CENTER

BACK MAITLAND ROAD FLOODED

0636 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 N MCCLURE 40.78N 77.31W
05/03/2011 SNYDER PA 911 CALL CENTER

RIDGE ROAD FLOODED

0655 PM TSTM WND DMG RIVERSIDE 40.94N 76.65W
05/03/2011 NORTHUMBERLAND PA PUBLIC

TREES DOWN

0750 PM TSTM WND GST JOE ZERBEY AIRPORT 40.72N 76.36W
05/03/2011 M55 MPH SCHUYLKILL PA AWOS

0830 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SW TAMAQUA 40.78N 75.96W
05/03/2011 SCHUYLKILL PA 911 CALL CENTER

BARN COLLAPSED 40 CATTLE TRAPPED 5 PINE TREES ACROSS
ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100092 CTP1100091 CTP1100088 CTP1100087 CTP1100090
CTP1100086 CTP1100089

$$

STEINBUGL

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KGSP [041222]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 041222
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
822 AM EDT WED MAY 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0824 PM HAIL 3 NNW GREENWOOD 34.23N 82.17W
05/03/2011 E1.00 INCH GREENWOOD SC TRAINED SPOTTER

A TRAINED SPOTTER...AND ALSO A COCORAHS OBSERVER...HAD
QUARTER SIZED HAIL THAT LASTED ABOUT 5 MINUTES.

&&

$$

BSH

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KRAH [041207]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 041207
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
807 AM EDT WED MAY 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1152 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 WSW COLERIDGE 35.61N 79.66W
05/03/2011 RANDOLPH NC 911 CALL CENTER

ONE TREE DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF HWY 42 AND MOFFITT
MILL RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1100607

$$

MWS

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 040759
SWOD48
SPC AC 040759

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2011

VALID 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODELS DEPICT A WNWLY FLOW REGIME FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC ON SAT/D4 WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING
QUICKLY EWD SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY. BY
THIS TIME...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEGUN TO RETURN NWD FROM
THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE ONGOING SAT MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF IA/MO/IL/IND...SHIFTING EWD
AS A LOW LEVEL JET VEERS. SEVERITY OF THIS CONVECTION WILL DEPEND ON
THE STRENGTH OF ANY UPPER SUPPORT...BUT AS PREVIOUSLY ALLUDED
TO...PREDICTABILITY IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME.

BY SUN/D5...THERE IS STRONG EVIDENCE THAT A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE WRN STATES WITH AN 80+ KT MID LEVEL
JET DIGGING SWD ALONG THE W COAST. THE BOUQUET OF MREF SOLUTIONS AS
WELL AS DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW LITTLE AGREEMENT ON D5 WITH HOW
QUICKLY AND HOW FAR S THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE CONVECTION OVER THE SRN/CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS NEAR THE DRYLINE WHERE CAPPING WILL BE A CONCERN...AND
ALSO WITH POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION FOCUSED OVER NEB/IA/MO/IL
OVERNIGHT WITH A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. BOTH THESE AREAS HAVE
POTENTIAL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE ANY SEVERE AREAS WITH SUCH
UNCERTAINTY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD MON/D6 TO WED/D8...THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A SEVERE THREAT EACH DAY ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS...AND PERHAPS EXTENDING EWD FROM A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH...AND/OR PIECES OF
THE TROUGH EMERGE OVER THE REGION.

SEVERE AREAS BEGINNING SUN/MAY 8TH AND LASTING THROUGH ABOUT MAY
10TH ARE LIKELY FORTHCOMING FOR MUCH OF THE CNTRL U.S. AS THE EVENT
NEARS AND PREDICTABILITY INCREASES.

..JEWELL.. 05/04/2011

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KMEG [040725]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMEG 040725
LSRMEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
225 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0222 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 S PARKIN 35.24N 90.55W
05/01/2011 CROSS AR TRAINED SPOTTER

MULTIPLE TREES DOWN...HOMES DAMAGED AND POWER LINES DOWN
AT HWY 75 AND 306

0301 PM HAIL MILLINGTON 35.33N 89.89W
05/01/2011 E0.88 INCH SHELBY TN TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKEL SIZED HAIL IN DOWNTOWN MILLINGTON

0330 PM FLASH FLOOD JONESBORO 35.82N 90.69W
05/01/2011 CRAIGHEAD AR PUBLIC

MULTIPLE AREAS FLOODED...FAIRGROUNDS AND EQUINE CENTER AT
AR STATE UNIVERSITY. DOLLAR TREE PARKING LOT UNDERWATER

0345 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 S MAURY CITY 35.74N 89.22W
05/01/2011 HAYWOOD TN STORM CHASER

HIGHWAY 54 AT THE FORKED DEER RIVER NEAR OWL CITY IS
CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING AND CHERRYVILLE ROAD NEAR OWL CITY
CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

1115 AM FLASH FLOOD CARUTHERSVILLE 36.18N 89.67W
05/02/2011 PEMISCOT MO PUBLIC

FLOODING OF FIELDS BEHIND A RESIDENTAL AREA ON ZAIDA
STREET

0230 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 E DOWNTOWN MEMPHIS 35.13N 89.96W
05/02/2011 SHELBY TN LAW ENFORCEMENT

SAM COOPER AT EAST PARKWAY IS FLOODED. CARS ARE GETTING
STUCK.

&&

$$

CCD

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 040633
SWODY3
SPC AC 040633

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2011

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...
A NWLY FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MULTIPLE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIST OVER THE SERN
STATES IN THE WAKE OF ONE TROUGH WITH AXIS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AT 00Z. FARTHER W...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL FORM FROM THE
ERN DAKOTAS SWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AS A WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH PROCEEDS SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.

SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ATTEMPT TO RETURN NWD ACROSS COASTAL
GA/CAROLINAS WHERE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIST BY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST ACROSS THIS AREA WITH THE
EXITING UPPER TROUGH...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO VERY
WEAK INSTABILITY. A GREATER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER
THE FL PENINSULA WHERE MID 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST...BUT ANY
WIND/DOWNBURST THREAT SHOULD BE QUITE LOCALIZED AND NOT GREAT ENOUGH
FOR ANY PROBS THIS FAR OUT.

..JEWELL.. 05/04/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 040550
SWODY1
SPC AC 040548

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2011

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SRN
APPALACHIANS AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL TRACK NEWD
TODAY...WITH THIS SYSTEM EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NERN STATES. AT 12Z THURSDAY...THE CLOSED LOW SHOULD
BE CENTERED OVER NY. A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE ERN TROUGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE NC COAST THIS MORNING...WHILE THE SRN EXTENT MOVES SWD
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM NH THROUGH
MAINE.

MEANWHILE...AN UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SEWD ACROSS THE NRN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED AFTER
05/00Z. A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE E/SEWD
ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE UPPER
MS VALLEY SWWD THROUGH ERN KS...NWRN-WRN OK INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS
BY 12Z THURSDAY.

...CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS...
OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT AND A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SWWD
INTO DEEP S TX TODAY WILL INHIBIT THE RETURN OF MOISTURE NWD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A COUPLE OF IMPULSES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THIS REGION COMBINED WITH
MIDLEVEL COLD ADVECTION ATOP STRONG SURFACE HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/FEW TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. VERY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN NRN KS/
SRN NEB LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK NEWD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
REACHING IA/SRN MN BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF GREATER HEIGHT
FALLS AND FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT EXPECTED OVER ERN NEB UNTIL
AFTER 05/00Z. THIS FACTOR COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF GREATER
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY /PW VALUES AT OR BELOW 0.75 INCH AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MID-UPPER 40S/ AND AN EML ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT SURFACE
BASED DEVELOPMENT IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS ERN NEB/WRN IA DURING THE EVENING AS STRONGER MIDLEVEL
FORCING REACHES THIS REGION ATOP LOW LEVEL WAA. HOWEVER...WEAK
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...AND
THUS SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

...FAR ERN NC...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE CAP OVER FAR ERN NC SHOULD WEAKEN
JUST AFTER 12Z TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS REGION.
ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG...WEAK INSTABILITY
PRECEDING THE FRONT AND LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE SUGGEST A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. A STRONGER WIND
GUST OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE DOES
NOT WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

...CENTRAL AND S FL...
THE AIR MASS S OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE TO SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND INVOF
OF SEA BREEZE/FRONT INTERACTIONS/COLLISIONS. GENERALLY WEAK FORCING
ALOFT AND WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PRECLUDE A GREATER SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT AND THE NEED FOR THE INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE
PROBABILITIES. HOWEVER...A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH STRONGER ACTIVITY.

..PETERS.. 05/04/2011

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 040504
SWODY2
SPC AC 040503

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2011

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THU WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS TO BEGIN THE DAY. ONE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS WHICH WILL KEEP ANY SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WELL OFFSHORE. AS ONE UPPER LOW ROTATES SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND...ANOTHER ONE WILL DIVE SEWD ACROSS MO/MID MS VALLEY
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS.

...IA/MO/IL...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL FORM OVER THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY
REGION BY DURING THE DAY...AND WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER DUE TO
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 40S F. THIS...ALONG WITH
SOMEWHAT WEAK FLOW IN THE LOWEST FEW KM SUGGEST NON-SEVERE
CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PERHAPS VERY SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS.

..JEWELL.. 05/04/2011

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