SWODY1
SPC AC 041253
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2011
VALID 041300Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
ERN TROUGH/UPR LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY E...REACHING THE HUDSON
VLY/MID ATLANTIC CST BY 12Z THU AS UPSTREAM TROUGH PROGRESSES ESE
FROM THE NRN HI PLNS TO THE ERN DAKOTAS/NEB. IN WAKE OF ERN
TROUGH...EXPANSIVE SFC RIDGE OVER THE OH AND LWR MS VLY REGION WILL
KEEP THE LWR LVLS DRY OVER MOST OF THE CONUS.
THE HI PLNS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
ADVANCE E/SE ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. THE FRONT SHOULD
EXTEND FROM THE UPR MS VLY SW THROUGH ERN KS AND WRN OK INTO THE W
TX BY 12Z THURSDAY.
...CNTRL/NRN PLNS...
LEAD IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER SCALE HI PLNS TROUGH WILL TRACK
E FROM WRN SD/NEB THIS MORNING INTO ERN SD/NEB BY EVE. ASCENT WITH
THIS FEATURE...AND LOW LVL UPLIFT ALONG ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT...SHOULD FOSTER SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM NRN/WRN KS NEWD
INTO ERN NE/SE SD LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. LOW TO MID LVL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP...BUT SPARSE MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
CONVECTION FAIRLY HIGH-BASED. COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY MODEST LOW
LVL WINDS...ANY SVR WEATHER THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLD/BRIEF.
N AND W OF THE ABOVE STORMS...OTHER MORE WIDELY SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS LIKELY WILL FORM BENEATH UPSTREAM IMPULSE AS THAT FEATURE
CONTINUES ESE FROM PARTS OF ID AND WRN WY INTO ERN WY...NRN CO...AND
WRN SD LATER TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE STRONGLY DIURNAL.
...FAR ERN NC TO SE NEW ENGLAND...
A FEW CLUSTERS OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS LIKELY WILL PERSIST IN
POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT FROM ERN NC TO SE NEW ENGLAND BEFORE
FRONTAL ZONE CLEARS THE CST LATER TODAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A FEW
SFC-BASED STORMS MAY INITIATE IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING OVER FAR
ERN NC THIS MORNING. SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO
SUPPORT SMALL SCALE BOWING STRUCTURES WITH ANY SUCH ACTIVITY. BUT
WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT DURATION/COVERAGE OF ANY ATTENDANT SVR
THREAT.
...CNTRL/SRN FL...
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ERN U.S. TROUGH WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SEWD
WITHIN WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT OVER CNTRL FL TODAY...WHERE SFC
HEATING WILL YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY. SCTD DIURNAL STORMS APPEAR
LIKELY BOTH ALONG THE FRONT...AND INVOF SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. A
STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO MAY OCCUR THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY.
..CORFIDI/ROGERS.. 05/04/2011
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment