KHNX [240358]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 240358
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
858 PM PDT SUN SEP 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0624 PM HAIL 8 E HANFORD 36.32N 119.50W
09/22/2007 E0.88 INCH KINGS CA TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

SANGER

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2012

ACUS11 KWNS 240257
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240257
MNZ000-NDZ000-240400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2012
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0957 PM CDT SUN SEP 23 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL SD THROUGH ERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 685...686...

VALID 240257Z - 240400Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
685...686...CONTINUES.

REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 685 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 04Z.

STRONGER DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD...AHEAD OF WEAKENING MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE...BUT PERHAPS ENHANCED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
ANTICYCLONIC UPPER JET STREAK...CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BY 06Z...THIS FORCING IS PROGGED TO
BECOME CENTERED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BEFORE SPREADING
INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER ALREADY APPEARS
TO HAVE BEEN UNDERCUT BY AN EASTWARD COLD FRONTAL SURGE. AND...
STABILIZATION OF NARROWING PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE IS NOW WELL
UNDERWAY. WITH VWP DATA INDICATING 50+ KT SOUTHERLY FLOW WITHIN THE
LOWEST KILOMETER ABOVE GROUND LEVEL...IN THE LINGERING PRE-FRONTAL
INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE 80F...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY SURFACE WINDS PROBABLY WILL
CONTINUE NEAR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPREADING ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THRU 04-06Z.

.KERR.. 09/24/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

46399981 47259903 48029875 48659814 49119732 49769579
48949518 48289535 47879596 47099699 46099857

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KBIS [240248]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 240248
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
948 PM CDT SUN SEP 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0909 PM HAIL ASHLEY 46.03N 99.37W
09/23/2007 E0.75 INCH MCINTOSH ND TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

NHEINERT

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KLUB [240236]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 240236
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
936 PM CDT SUN SEP 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0510 PM TSTM WND DMG RHEA 34.67N 102.95W
09/23/2007 PARMER TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

SMALL LIMBS BROKEN. UNKNOWN WIND SPEED.

&&

$$

RMCQUEEN

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KBIS [240126]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 240126
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
826 PM CDT SUN SEP 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM TSTM WND GST 14 WNW FREDONIA 46.41N 99.37W
09/23/2007 M58 MPH LOGAN ND TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

NHEINERT

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 240101
SWODY1
SPC AC 240059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT SUN SEP 23 2007

VALID 240100Z - 241200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS OF THE NRN PLAINS AND
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

..NRN PLAINS AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS THE WRN STATES. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWD
ACROSS THE CNTRL DAKOTAS INTO WRN NEB. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS
MARKEDLY INCREASED ACROSS WRN NEB AND CNTRL SD AND SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACCORDING TO
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL MCS/S POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

A 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET CURRENTLY OVER NW CO AND SRN WY WILL CONTINUE
TO EJECT NEWD TOWARD THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE JET...STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.
INITIALLY...SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN ND AND FAR NW MN WHERE INSTABILITY IS
MAXIMIZED AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES LIKELY EXCEED 60 KT. IN
ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS STRONG ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM
CNTRL SD TO WRN NEB AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. THIS MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR AN
ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT ESPECIALLY IF A LINEAR MCS CAN ORGANIZE
THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE SFC WINDS ARE VEERED AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS EXIST. THE GREATEST SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS BEFORE INSTABILITY
WEAKENS AND A CAPPING INVERSION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION.

..COASTAL LA...
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO ORGANIZE OFF THE COAST OF
LA TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE NRN GULF
OF MEXICO. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS MODELS INCREASE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN
THE VICINITY OF THIS MCS AND SHEAR PROFILES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ROTATING STORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY APPROACH THE LA COAST LATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN OFFSHORE SUGGESTING THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE LA COAST.

.BROYLES.. 09/24/2007

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 686

WWUS20 KWNS 240058
SEL6
SPC WW 240058
MNZ000-NDZ000-240700-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 686
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
750 PM CDT SUN SEP 23 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 750 PM UNTIL
200 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF
HALLOCK MINNESOTA TO 10 MILES EAST OF JAMESTOWN NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 685...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS NOW FORMING BETWEEN MBG AND JMS IN N NCNTRL SD/SE
ND EXPECTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP NNE ALONG LEAD COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH EJECTING GRT BASIN UPR TROUGH. SFC-BASED INSTABILITY HAS
PEAKED FOR THE DAY. BUT DECOUPLING/STRENGTHENING SSWLY LLJ AND
ASSOCIATED MASS FLUX CHANGES SUGGEST THAT SE ND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
STRONG THROUGH THE EVENING. GIVEN 40 KT SSWLY DEEP SWLY SHEAR AND
POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...ACTIVITY MAY
POSE A THREAT FOR HI WIND/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 22040.

..CORFIDI

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KUNR [240048]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 240048
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
648 PM MDT SUN SEP 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0635 PM TSTM WND GST 4 S MILESVILLE 44.40N 101.69W
09/23/2007 E60 MPH HAAKON SD TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

WETENKAMP

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KBIS [240045]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 240045
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
745 PM CDT SUN SEP 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0741 PM TSTM WND GST VENTURIA 46.00N 99.55W
09/23/2007 E70 MPH MCINTOSH ND TRAINED SPOTTER

60 TO 70 MPH WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN

&&

$$

KSIMOSKO

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2011

ACUS11 KWNS 232346
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232345
MNZ000-NDZ000-240145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2011
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 PM CDT SUN SEP 23 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN ND/FAR NORTHWEST MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 232345Z - 240145Z

SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS EASTERN ND
INTO FAR NORTHWEST MN...WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL
TRENDS...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A WATCH COULD BE NEEDED BY AROUND
01Z.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES 999 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ND...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ANGLING NNE-SSW ACROSS
CENTRAL ND/WEST CENTRAL SD. WHILE SUFFICIENT INHIBITION/LACK OF
FORCING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR HAS LIMITED DEEP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR...FRONTAL FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF WESTERN
STATES UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING...PERHAPS LIKELY BY AROUND
01Z-02Z ALONG A JAMESTOWN-DEVILS LAKE CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH MAXIMIZED
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MODERATELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-45 KT
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN ND INTO NORTHWEST MN. IN SPITE OF MODEST
INSTABILITY...AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR/LONG HODOGRAPHS WITH SOME LOW
LEVEL VEERING WILL FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BRIEF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES/POSSIBLE LEWP EVOLUTION...WITH SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS
POTENTIALLY POSING AN ENHANCED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. SOME LARGE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.GUYER.. 09/23/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

48829639 48139619 47119666 46319695 46109779 47139845
47589977 48819984 49059754

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2010

ACUS11 KWNS 232330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232329
NDZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-240100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2010
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0629 PM CDT SUN SEP 23 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL DAKOTAS INTO W CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 685...

VALID 232329Z - 240100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 685
CONTINUES.

RECENT NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH OF PIERRE
IS OCCURRING WHERE THE NOSE OF A PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
INTERSECTS THE AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR RETURNING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES PEAKED IN THE MID/UPPER
90S ACROSS THIS REGION...WEAKENING INHIBITION FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
BASED PARCELS TO NEGLIGIBLE LEVELS. WHILE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING IS NOW UNDERWAY...ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
TO SUPPORT A CONTINUING SEVERE THREAT AT LEAST THROUGH THE 02-04Z
TIME FRAME...AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS NORTHWARD JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE
FRONT INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WHICH IS BEGINNING TO
LIFT THROUGH BROADER ANTICYCLONIC UPPER FLOW FIELD ACROSS THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS.

SHEAR WITHIN DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME IS STRONG AND
SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION...WHICH WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A
MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. OTHERWISE...DOWNWARD MIXING OF
MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED 30-50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BEFORE STORMS BECOME UNDERCUT BY EASTWARD
ADVANCING COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING.

.KERR.. 09/23/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...

45670051 46420021 47009996 47459898 47139804 46629791
45019857 44249925 43199956 42040012 41360067 41200164
41990158 43170140 43660099 44290075

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KBOI [232235]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 232235
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
435 PM MDT SUN SEP 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 N YELLOW PINE 44.92N 115.48W
09/23/2007 M1.99 INCH VALLEY ID MESONET

JOHNSON CREEK FIRE RAWS EL 4925 FT 1.99 INCHES 24 HR
PCPN. 1.01 INCHES FROM 200 AM TO 1100 AM.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 NNW LOWMAN 44.09N 115.62W
09/23/2007 M1.18 INCH BOISE ID MESONET

SOUTH FORK PAYETTE RIVER NEAR LOWMAN EL 3790 FT 1.18
INCHES PCPN FROM 1000 PM 09/22/07 TO 700 AM 09/23/07.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 10 ENE IDAHO CITY 43.92N 115.67W
09/23/2007 M1.00 INCH BOISE ID MESONET

MORES CREEK SUMMIT SNOTEL EL 6099 FT 1.00 INCHES PCPN
FROM MIDNIGHT TO 700 AM.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 18 SE ROME 42.63N 117.39W
09/23/2007 M1.84 INCH MALHEUR OR MESONET

GRASSY MOUNTAIN RAWS EL 4560 FT 1.84 INCHES PCPN FROM 800
PM 09/22/07 TO 700 AM 09/23/07.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 17 WSW HOMEDALE 43.52N 117.24W
09/23/2007 M1.34 INCH MALHEUR OR MESONET

OWYHEE RIDGE RAWS EL 4400 FT 1.34 INCHES PCPN FROM 1000
PM 09/22/07 TO 700 AM 09/23/07.

0900 AM HEAVY RAIN 7 E DEADWOOD RES 44.29N 115.52W
09/23/2007 M1.52 INCH VALLEY ID TRAINED SPOTTER

WHITEHAWK LOOKOUT EL 8369 FT 1.52 INCHES 24 HR PCPN 4
INCHES NEW SNOW.

0900 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 NNW SMITHS FERRY 44.38N 116.12W
09/23/2007 M1.00 INCH VALLEY ID TRAINED SPOTTER

TRIPOD LOOKOUT EL 8086 FT 1.00 INCHES 24 HR PCPN.

0900 AM HEAVY SNOW 7 NNE WARM LAKE 44.74N 115.62W
09/23/2007 M8.0 INCH VALLEY ID TRAINED SPOTTER

THUNDERBOLT LOOKOUT EL 8652 FT 8 INCHES NEW SNOW 0.88
INCHES 24 HR WATER EQ.

0900 AM HEAVY RAIN 8 NW DEADWOOD RES 44.38N 115.79W
09/23/2007 M1.05 INCH VALLEY ID TRAINED SPOTTER

SILVER CREEK LOOKOUT EL 6778 FT 1.05 INCHES 24 HR PCPN.

0900 AM HEAVY RAIN 10 E LOWMAN 44.06N 115.41W
09/23/2007 M1.31 INCH BOISE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

JACKSON PEAK LOOKOUT EL 8124 FT 1.31 INCHES 24 HR PCPN.

0900 AM HEAVY RAIN 15 SSE SILVER CITY 42.83N 116.59W
09/23/2007 M1.13 INCH OWYHEE ID MESONET

TRIANGLE RAWS EL 5269 FT 1.13 INCHES FROM 1200 AM TO 900
AM.

1200 PM HEAVY RAIN 11 SSE HORSESHOE BEND 43.77N 116.10W
09/23/2007 M1.00 INCH BOISE ID MESONET

BOGUS BASIN SNOTEL EL 6339 FT 1.00 INCHES PCPN FROM
MIDNIGHT TO 1000 AM.

1200 PM HEAVY RAIN CALDWELL 43.66N 116.68W
09/23/2007 M1.14 INCH CANYON ID AWOS

CALDWELL INDUSTRIAL AIRPORT 1.14 INCHES 24 HR PCPN

1200 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 SW FEATHERVILLE 43.57N 115.33W
09/23/2007 M0.97 INCH ELMORE ID MESONET

WAGONTOWN RAWS EL 6200 FT 0.97 INCHES FROM 800 PM 9/22/07
TO 1200 PM 09/23/07.

1200 PM HEAVY RAIN ROME 42.83N 117.62W
09/23/2007 M1.05 INCH MALHEUR OR ASOS

ROME ASOS EL 4050 FT 1.05 INCHES 24 HR PCPN

1200 PM HEAVY RAIN 14 NW YELLOW PINE 45.03N 115.71W
09/23/2007 M1.23 INCH VALLEY ID MESONET

ZENA FIRE RAWS EL 3800 FT 1.23 INCHES 24 HR PCPN.

1200 PM HEAVY RAIN 12 W YELLOW PINE 44.90N 115.74W
09/23/2007 M1.01 INCH VALLEY ID MESONET

TEA POT RAWS EL 5200 FT 1.01 INCHES 24 HR PCPN.

&&

$$

DDECKER

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KTAE [232115]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTAE 232115
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
446 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0340 PM RIP CURRENTS 6 S EASTPOINT 29.65N 84.89W
09/23/2007 FRANKLIN FL PARK/FOREST SRVC

*** 1 FATAL *** 1 FATALITY REPORTED DUE TO RIP CURRENTS
ON SAINT GEORGE ISLAND. TIME OF EVENT ESTIMATED.

&&

$$

GODSEY

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 685

WWUS20 KWNS 232025
SEL5
SPC WW 232025
NDZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-240400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 685
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
325 PM CDT SUN SEP 23 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 325 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BISMARCK NORTH DAKOTA TO 65 MILES SOUTH OF MULLEN NEBRASKA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN SD/NEB
PANHANDLE WILL INITIATE STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS IT ENCOUNTERS
AN UNSTABLE DEEPLY MIXED AIR MASS. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF
EJECTING TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES WILL ENHANCE ALONG WITH STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AS STORMS MOVE/DEVELOP
RAPIDLY NE/NNEWD THRU THE EVENING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 21035.

..HALES

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 232002
SWODY1
SPC AC 231959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT SUN SEP 23 2007

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO
THE ERN DAKS...

..CNTRL/NRN PLAINS...
PER 19Z MESOANALYSIS...FIRST BATCH OF COLDER AIR WAS SURGING EWD
INTO PORTIONS OF WRN SD...WRN NEB PNHDL AND NERN CO. PRIMARY COLD
FRONT...MARKING THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGEST PVA...WAS JUST
CROSSING THE DIVIDE. CONSIDERABLE DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED ON
THE PLAINS THIS AFTN WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000
J/KG FROM EXTREME NERN CO NWD INTO THE CNTRL DAKS. CINH APPEARS TO
BE ERODING...OWING TO HEATING AND INCREASED ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
APCHG UPR TROUGH...AND HIGH-BASED TSTMS SHOULD GRADUALLY EVOLVE FROM
THE INCREASING CU FIELD ALONG THE FIRST FRONT FROM WRN NEB INTO
CNTRL SD BEFORE 21Z. TSTMS WILL PROBABLY BACKBUILD INTO EXTREME
NERN CO LATER IN THE AFTN...WHILE EXPANDING NEWD TOWARD ERN ND.

DEEP LAYER FLOW HAS CONTINUED TO BACK TO SSWLY AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...AND MRR PROFILER EXHIBITS VERY LITTLE DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR...BUT BULK SHEAR VALUES WERE NEAR 30 KTS. LINEAR FORCING AND
ORIENTATION OF THE SHEAR VECTORS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT WILL
FOSTER FAST EVOLUTION INTO LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS. EMBEDDED ROTATING
CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE LIFE CYCLE WITH
LARGE HAIL...BUT ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DMGG WIND GUSTS AS
LINEAR TRANSITIONS OCCUR.

SVR THREATS WILL BE LIMITED SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY. MORE
SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY AXIS IS NARROW AND AS THE STORMS EXIT THIS
ZONE...A SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN SVR PROBABILITIES WILL ENSUE AFTER
ABOUT 03Z...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. ISOLD STORMS MAY
STILL YIELD HIGH WIND GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN/ERN ND WELL INTO
THE NIGHT.

.RACY.. 09/23/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2009

ACUS11 KWNS 231952
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231951
SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-232145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2009
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT SUN SEP 23 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO THROUGH WRN NEB THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231951Z - 232145Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 21Z FROM NERN CO THROUGH
WRN NEB AND WRN SD AND INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE EWD. ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WRN SD SWWD THROUGH WRN NEB INTO NERN
CO...PRECEDED BY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. LIFT AND A PLUME OF DEEP
MOISTURE STREAMING NWD THROUGH THE ROCKIES IS CONTRIBUTING TO
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WEST OF THE FRONT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE
RESULTED IN GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR
THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN MODERATED SOMEWHAT BY MODEST
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN 50S TO AROUND 60
CONTRIBUTING TO AN AXIS OF MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG FROM W CNTRL NEB
THROUGH CNTRL SD. CUMULUS IS INCREASING WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
IS WEAKENING THE CAP IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT FROM NERN CO INTO WRN
NEB AND SWRN SD. EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN AXIS OF CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT NEXT HOUR OR TWO. DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN TO NEAR
50 IN THIS REGION...WHILE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO AROUND 90.
THIS SUGGESTS INITIAL STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED...BUT STORMS WILL
LIKELY INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO THETA-E AXIS. BELT OF 50+ KT
MID-UPPER FLOW ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH IS GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EWD WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL 40 KT DEEP SHEAR IN VICINITY OF THE
FRONT. SOME STORMS WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES BUT
ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AS IT DEVELOPS
EWD.

.DIAL.. 09/23/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

41770119 40740216 40450325 40750354 42400278 44840218
44620024 43040057

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KFGZ [231912]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 231912
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1211 PM MST SUN SEP 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0140 PM HAIL CASTLE HOT SPRINGS 33.98N 112.36W
09/22/2007 E1.50 INCH YAVAPAI AZ CO-OP OBSERVER

HAIL DAMAGED A TRUCK AND PUNCHED HOLES IN WINDOW SCREENS

0140 PM FLASH FLOOD CASTLE HOT SPRINGS 33.98N 112.36W
09/22/2007 YAVAPAI AZ CO-OP OBSERVER

0.91 INCHES OF RAIN IN 10 MINUTES. PORTION OF A HOME
FLOODED.

&&

$$

JJ

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 231707
SWODY2
SPC AC 231706

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1206 PM CDT SUN SEP 23 2007

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPR MS VLY SWWD INTO
PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS...

..PLAINS TO UPR GRTLKS...
UPR SYSTEM EVOLVING IN THE WEST TODAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD AS A
POSITIVE TILT TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS STATES ON MONDAY. STRONGEST
PORTION OF THE TROUGH...NOW MOVING ACROSS THE GRT BASIN...WILL REACH
KS/NEB LATE MONDAY WHILE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE EJECT NEWD INTO THE UPR MS VLY. AT THE SFC...MAIN COLD
FRONT ASSOCD WITH THE WRN TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
PLAINS...REACHING A WRN WI-CNTRL KS-TX S PLAINS LINE BY 12Z TUE.
NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO EXIST IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR.

MESSY CONVECTIVE FCST LIKELY TO UNFOLD ON MONDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS
REGION NEWD TO THE UPR GRTLKS. A RAPID INJECTION OF TROPICAL LAPSE
RATE ENVIRONMENT ACCOMPANYING THE REMNANT MID-LEVEL SIGNATURE OF THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL YIELD WEAKLY CAPPED SOUNDINGS WELL AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY AND UPR GRTLKS
REGION ON MONDAY. AS A RESULT...CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP EASILY BY
EARLY AFTN FROM IA NWD INTO MN AND WI AS NRN PORTION OF THE MAIN UPR
TROUGH EDGES EWD. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
LATER IN THE AFTN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FARTHER SW ACROSS THE
CNTRL PLAINS AS THE MORE ENERGETIC PORTION /H5 JET STREAK OF 55+
KTS/ OF THE UPR TROUGH MOVES EWD FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES.

STRONGEST BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN THE COLDER AIR WEST OF THE
PRIMARY FRONT...BUT AVAILABILITY OF AT LEAST 30-35 KTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR MAY SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS. POORER
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT INITIALLY ACROSS NERN PORTIONS OF THE SLGT
RISK SUGGESTS THAT DMGG WIND GUSTS OR BRIEF TORNADOES WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SVR RISKS. ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY AND
FARTHER SW HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS.

THE SVR THREATS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED OVER MOST OF THE
REGION WITH WANING PROBABILITIES BY MID-EVENING FROM IA NEWD INTO
THE GRTLKS. ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND PROSPECTS MAY LINGER
LONGER OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AS THE SRN EDGE OF THE TROUGH SWINGS
EWD AND SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FEEDS A POTENTIAL MCS ACROSS NRN KS/NEB
INTO IA BY EARLY TUE MORNING.

..AR/LA...
FETCH OF SUBSTANTIAL TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NWD INTO THE LWR
MS VLY/MID-SOUTH ON MONDAY ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE ERN STATES
HIGH. AT THE SAME TIME...MODEST UPR LEVEL JET WILL EVOLVE ALONG THE
ERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPR LOW MOVING NWD INTO E TX. TSTMS THAT
DEVELOP WITHIN THE MOIST AXIS MAY GROW STG WITHIN THE HIGH LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS CNTRL/ERN AR AND NRN LA MONDAY AFTN...AND MAY APPROACH
SVR LIMITS. BACKGROUND SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...ALBEIT WEAK...MAY
AUGMENT LOW-LEVEL TURNING SUFFICIENT FOR BRIEF ISOLD TORNADOES ALONG
WITH THE THREAT FOR ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS.

.RACY.. 09/23/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 231603
SWODY1
SPC AC 231600

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM CDT SUN SEP 23 2007

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW OFF CA COAST LAST FEW DAYS HAS OPENED INTO A TROUGH AND
CURRENTLY ACCELERATING NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AS UPSTREAM
SYSTEM DIGS SEWD FROM PAC NW. TROUGH IS PRECEEDED BY STRONG SWLY
FLOW AT ALL LEVELS THAT WILL BE SPREADING EWD INTO NRN/CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN CONCERT WITH ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
FRONT NOW CROSSING THE NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONT
ENCOUNTERS PLUME OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR AVAILABLE OVER THE PLAINS.

..CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...
SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. FULL SUNSHINE WILL HELP TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZE AIR MASS BY MID AFTERNOON FROM WESTERN
KS INTO ND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-1500
J/KG OVER ERN CO/WRN KS/NEB...INCREASING TO NEAR 2000 J/KG OVER
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT
SWEEPS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF WESTERN SD/NEB AND NORTHEAST CO.
CONVERGENCE/LIFT ALONG FRONT WILL HELP TO INITIATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE RATHER HIGH-BASED AND
FAST-MOVING WITH A THREAT OF HAIL AND GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT PLUME OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL
THETA-E WILL BE RATHER NARROW... CONSTRAINING PRIMARY REGION OF
SEVERE THREAT TO A BELT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEB INTO EASTERN ND.
LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR VECTORS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ORGANIZED BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES ALONG THIS ZONE
WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN OVER MOST REGIONS BY 03Z...EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ND
WHERE SEVERE POTENTIAL MIGHT CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

..ERN MT...
A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE LIKELY BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL
COOLING AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREAD ACROSS ERN MT. WITH
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE TO 500 J/KG THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP EWD FROM HIGHER TERRAIN CENTRAL MT WITH PRIMARY THREAT
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.HALES/GUYER.. 09/23/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 231239
SWODY1
SPC AC 231237

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 AM CDT SUN SEP 23 2007

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOPS SHOW A HIGH-AMPLITUDE LARGE SCALE
TROUGH OVER NV/CA...WITH STRONG MID/HIGH LEVEL JET EXTENDING ALONG
AN AXIS FROM AZ INTO WY/MT. THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH JET AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS. MEANWHILE...STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EASTWARD
INTO THE PLAINS PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

..CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...
SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 60S. FULL SUNSHINE WILL HELP TO STEEPEN LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DESTABILIZE AIR MASS BY MID AFTERNOON FROM WESTERN
KS INTO ND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG
OVER KS/CO/NEB...INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG OVER PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE RAPIDLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD
INTO PARTS OF WESTERN SD/NEB AND NORTHEAST CO. CONVERGENCE/LIFT
ALONG FRONT WILL HELP TO INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE RATHER HIGH-BASED AND FAST-MOVING WITH A
THREAT OF HAIL AND GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT PLUME OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETA-E WILL BE
RATHER NARROW... CONSTRAINING PRIMARY REGION OF SEVERE THREAT TO A
BELT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEB INTO EASTERN ND. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP
LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR VECTORS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF ORGANIZED BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES ALONG THIS ZONE WITH AN ENHANCED
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN OVER MOST
REGIONS BY 03Z...EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ND WHERE SEVERE
POTENTIAL MIGHT CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

..EASTERN MT...
LEFT EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO AFFECT PARTS
OF EASTERN MT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS AND STRONG FORCING FOR
UPWARD MOTION OVER THIS AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST THE
PRESENCE OF AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY DUE TO COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP
IN THIS SMALL AREA...THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL. OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK AT
THIS TIME.

.HART/GRAMS.. 09/23/2007

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 230853
SWOD48
SPC AC 230852

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CDT SUN SEP 23 2007

VALID 261200Z - 011200Z

..DISCUSSION...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE TROUGHS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE
COUNTRY DAYS 4-6. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO EXIST DAY
7 /I.E. SAT. SEPT. 29/ ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHEN LONG-RANGE MODELS
HINT THAT A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MAY AFFECT THIS AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER IN THEIR DEPICTION
OF THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM -- AND ARE OFFSET WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING BY ROUGHLY 12 HOURS. THUS -- WHILE AN AREA WILL NOT BE
OUTLOOKED ATTM...AN AREA COULD BE REQUIRED ACROSS PARTS OF THIS
REGION LATER FORECASTS IF MODELS CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON THIS OVERALL
SCENARIO.

.GOSS.. 09/23/2007

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 230723
SWODY3
SPC AC 230721

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CDT SUN SEP 23 2007

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
AS AN UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY/WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO ONTARIO...A SECOND
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD OUT OF WRN CANADA INTO THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS...THUS MAINTAINING A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE N CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE INITIAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...WHILE
SAGGING MORE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. THOUGH THIS FRONT
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION...
LIMITED DESTABILIZATION /MIXED-LAYER CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG/ IS
FORECAST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT FROM THE OH VALLEY
NNEWD...WHILE SOMEWHAT GREATER CAPE IS FORECAST FARTHER SWWD INTO
AR/ERN OK/NERN TX DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG TRAILING PORTIONS OF
THE FRONT. CONVERSELY...STRONGER FLOW ALOFT /MID-LEVEL FLOW 30 TO
40 KT/ IS FORECAST WITHIN LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST...WITH MUCH WEAKER FLOW EXPECTED FROM AR SWWD. AS A
RESULT...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED ALONG THE
LENGTH OF THIS FRONT. RELATIVELY GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS
TO EXIST FROM ROUGHLY SERN MO ENEWD INTO OH/LOWER MI -- WHERE
ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD AND AT LEAST SOME CROSS-BOUNDARY
COMPONENT MAY RESULT IN A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH
STRONGER STORM SEGMENTS. OVERALL HOWEVER...THREAT ATTM APPEARS TO
BE BELOW SLIGHT RISK THRESHOLDS.

.GOSS.. 09/23/2007

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KHNX [230622]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 230622
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
1122 PM PDT SAT SEP 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 E ORANGE COVE 36.62N 119.28W
09/22/2007 TULARE CA STORM CHASER

STORM CHASER NOTED DEBRIS OF LEAVES...SMALL TREES AND
BRANCHES FROM FLASH FLOODING...JUST EAST OF ORANGE COVE
ON SAND CREEK RD.

&&

$$

JBRO

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 230600
SWODY2
SPC AC 230558

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT SUN SEP 23 2007

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WI SWWD INTO SERN NEB/NRN
KS...

..SYNOPSIS...
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE/DEAMPLIFYING UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS
PERIOD...AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. SHIFTS EWD INTO THE
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ESEWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH TIME...REACHING A POSITION FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES SSWWD INTO OK/W TX BY 25/12Z.

..WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
AS SURFACE HIGH RETREATS EWD ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AND COLD FRONT
SHIFTS SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS...SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE
S...RESULTING IN NWD ADVECTION OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. THIS
MOISTENING COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD YIELD MIXED-LAYER
CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION
SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/SRN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT.

STORMS -- POSSIBLY ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD INVOF FRONT --
SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING LINEAR
ORGANIZATION POSSIBLE AS STORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH TIME.

WHILE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE
FRONT...BROAD AREA OF 30 TO 40 KT SWLYS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. WHILE FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT -- NOT
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR A WIDESPREAD WIND THREAT...LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS/STORM SEGMENTS
THROUGH THE EVENING.

.GOSS.. 09/23/2007

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KHNX [230600]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 230600
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
1059 PM PDT SAT SEP 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0854 PM HAIL 5 W SQUAW VALLEY 36.70N 119.28W
09/22/2007 E0.75 INCH FRESNO CA STORM CHASER

HAIL COATED ROADWAY

0930 PM FLASH FLOOD SQUAW VALLEY 36.70N 119.19W
09/22/2007 FRESNO CA STORM CHASER

STORM CHASER OBSERVED DEBRIS FROM FLASH
FLOODING...BRANCHES...LIMBS AND LEAVES ON GEORGE SMITH

AND SAND CREEK ROADS NEAR SQUAW VALLEY AFTER HEAVY RAINS.

&&

$$

JBRO

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 230550
SWODY1
SPC AC 230548

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT SUN SEP 23 2007

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS
AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

..NRN PLAINS AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NV EARLY TODAY WILL OPEN UP AS HEIGHTS FALL
ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. IN RESPONSE...A SFC LOW WILL
ORGANIZE OVER ERN MT WITH A WELL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SSWWD
FROM NCNTRL ND INTO WRN NEB. A SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
NRN PLAINS SHOULD TAKE PLACE TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG PLAINS
LOW-LEVEL JET. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD AT LEAST REACH 60 F IN PARTS OF
THE CNTRL AND ERN DAKOTAS AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A POCKET OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MID-AFTERNOON WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN THIS AREA. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD ALSO INITIATE FURTHER SOUTH SOUTHWEST ACROSS WRN NEB AND NE
CO WHERE MODELS ARE FORECASTING STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE SFC TROUGH. AS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES...SEVERAL LINEAR
MCS/S MAY GRADUALLY ORGANIZE WITH STORM COVERAGE EVENTUALLY FILLING
IN ALONG THE SFC TROUGH IN THE EVENING. MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN
TOO FAST WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP FURTHER WEST MORE CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION.

CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...A 70 KT MID-LEVEL JET OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
CREATING STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION. VERTICAL
SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE IN THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOWN ON AFTERNOON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS OVER THE NRN PLAINS WHERE MORE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE PRESENT. SUPERCELLS SHOULD HAVE A LARGE HAIL THREAT DUE TO
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY COLD TEMPS ALOFT EVIDENT
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO OCCUR AS LINE
SEGMENTS ORGANIZE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH IN THE EARLY EVENING. IF A
LINEAR MCS DEVELOPS IN THE VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE SFC
TROUGH IN CNTRL SD AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM...THE UNIDIRECTIONAL
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COULD RESULT IN AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT.
THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN THE 21Z TO 03Z
TIME FRAME WHEN INSTABILITY SHOULD BE STRONGEST ACROSS THE REGION.

..CNTRL AND ERN MT...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE NRN ROCKIES AND
NRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT NEAR A SFC LOW IN ECNTRL MT THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
EXTENT OF THE THREAT SHOULD BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS
PRESENT OVER ECNTRL MT AND THE RESULTANT SFC HEATING THAT TAKES
PLACE.

..SRN LA...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. MODEL FORECASTS MOVE A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PLUME WWD INTO THE NRN GULF OF
MEXICO TODAY. THE NRN PART OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER COULD AFFECT
THE COAST OF LA TONIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS SOLUTION.
HOWEVER...THE GREATEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE
AND AN ORGANIZED STORM THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED.

.BROYLES/GRAMS.. 09/23/2007

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KHNX [230533]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 230533
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
1033 PM PDT SAT SEP 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0609 PM FLASH FLOOD 8 E HANFORD 36.32N 119.50W
09/22/2007 KINGS CA NWS EMPLOYEE

FLASH FLOODING OBSERVED ALONG FARGO AVE AND GRANGEVILLE
BLVD BETWEEN 7TH AVE EAST TO THE TULARE COUNTY LINE.
FLOODING WAS OBSERVED THROUGH 645 PM PDT.

&&

$$

JDUD

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