SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240257
MNZ000-NDZ000-240400-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2012
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0957 PM CDT SUN SEP 23 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL SD THROUGH ERN ND
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 685...686...
VALID 240257Z - 240400Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
685...686...CONTINUES.
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 685 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 04Z.
STRONGER DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD...AHEAD OF WEAKENING MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE...BUT PERHAPS ENHANCED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
ANTICYCLONIC UPPER JET STREAK...CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BY 06Z...THIS FORCING IS PROGGED TO
BECOME CENTERED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BEFORE SPREADING
INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER ALREADY APPEARS
TO HAVE BEEN UNDERCUT BY AN EASTWARD COLD FRONTAL SURGE. AND...
STABILIZATION OF NARROWING PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE IS NOW WELL
UNDERWAY. WITH VWP DATA INDICATING 50+ KT SOUTHERLY FLOW WITHIN THE
LOWEST KILOMETER ABOVE GROUND LEVEL...IN THE LINGERING PRE-FRONTAL
INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE 80F...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY SURFACE WINDS PROBABLY WILL
CONTINUE NEAR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPREADING ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THRU 04-06Z.
.KERR.. 09/24/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
46399981 47259903 48029875 48659814 49119732 49769579
48949518 48289535 47879596 47099699 46099857
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