KFFC [170341]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KFFC 170341
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1141 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM TORNADO 5 S AMERICUS 32.00N 84.25W
10/15/2009 SUMTER GA EMERGENCY MNGR

LIKELY TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN AT 700 PM APPROX 5 NM S OF
AMERICUS NEAR US HWY 19. CAUSED WALL TO COLLAPSE AND
OTHER DAMAGE TO GROCERY STORE AT 1146 S HWY 19 SOUTH OF
MCLITTLE BRIDGE RD. LARGE TREE FELL ON A FORESTRY
BUILDING NEAR THIS LOCATION. ONE HOME WAS ALSO DAMAGED.
AT LEAST 50 TO 100 TREES WERE SNAPPED ALONG THE 2 MILE
PATH BEFORE LIFTING AT HWY 377 APPOX 5.5 SSE OF AMERICUS
AROUND 708 PM. THE TORNADO HAS NOT YET BEEN RATED PENDING
FURTHER INVESTIGATION. INITIAL WINDS EST AT 100 MPH.

&&
CORRECTED LOCATION OF END POINT OF TORNADO.
$$

SNELSON

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KFFC [170336]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KFFC 170336
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1135 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM TORNADO 5 S AMERICUS 32.00N 84.25W
10/15/2009 SUMTER GA EMERGENCY MNGR

LIKELY TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN AT 700 PM APPROX 5 NM S OF
AMERICUS NEAR US HWY 19. CAUSED WALL TO COLLAPSE AND
OTHER DAMAGE TO GROCERY STORE AT 1146 S HWY 19 SOUTH OF
MCLITTLE BRIDGE RD. LARGE TREE FELL ON A FORESTRY
BUILDING NEAR THIS LOCATION. ONE HOME WAS ALSO DAMAGED.
AT LEAST 50 TO 100 TREES WERE SNAPPED ALONG THE 2 MILE
PATH BEFORE LIFTING 5.5 NM S OF AMERICUS AROUND 708 PM.
THE TORNADO HAS NOT YET BEEN RATED PENDING FURTHER
INVESTIGATION. INITIAL WINDS EST AT 100 MPH.

&&

$$

SNELSON

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KICT [170310]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 170310
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1010 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1007 PM HAIL 1 WNW HUTCHINSON 38.07N 97.93W
10/16/2009 E0.75 INCH RENO KS TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA SIZE HAIL AS WELL.

&&

$$

BDK

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KOKX [170210]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KOKX 170210
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1010 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM STORM SURGE 5 SSE JAMAICA 40.64N 73.74W
10/16/2009 U0.00 FT NASSAU NY EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL CARS STUCK IN FLOOD WATER AT INTERSECTION OF
BROOKVILLE BLVD AND ROCKAWAY BLVD. TIDAL FLOODING RECEDED
TWO HOURS LATER.

0800 PM STORM SURGE 5 SSE JAMAICA 40.64N 73.74W
10/16/2009 E1.50 FT NASSAU NY EMERGENCY MNGR

FLOODING AT INTERSECTION OF BROOKVILLE BLVD AND ROCKAWAY
BLVD WITH ONE CAR FLOODED.

&&

$$

KGS

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KSEW [170158]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 170158
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
658 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0657 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 SE FREDERICKSON 47.03N 122.29W
10/16/2009 M0.52 INCH PIERCE WA TRAINED SPOTTER

RECEIVED IN LAST HOUR

&&

$$

DDAMICO

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170028
SWODY1
SPC AC 170026

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2009

VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...PACIFIC NW...

WARM CONVEYOR IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW COAST...PER
EARLY EVENING WV IMAGERY. THIS BELT OF MOIST ASCENT IS
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WITHIN THE 850-500MB LAYER...SUFFICIENTLY
BUOYANT FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST
LIGHTNING DATA SUPPORTS THIS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER
SWRN WA...AND ROUGHLY 100 MI OFF THE ORE COAST. EARLIER FORECAST
HAS THIS WELL COVERED AND WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THIS REGION FOR WARM CONVEYOR CONVECTION.

...FL...

DEEP CONVECTION IS QUICKLY DISSIPATING OVER THE PENINSULA...SHIFTING
OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF BOTH THE GULF STREAM AND GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ANY SHOWERS
THAT LINGER OVER CNTRL/SRN PENINSULA WILL LIKELY REMAIN
LIGHTNING-FREE.

..DARROW.. 10/17/2009

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KJAX [162126]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 162126
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
526 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0235 PM HAIL 3 S BAYARD 30.10N 81.51W
10/16/2009 E0.75 INCH ST. JOHNS FL PUBLIC

THE OWNER OF A BUSINESS ON RACE TRACK ROAD JUST WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 REPORTED A BRIEF PERIOD OF PENNY SIZE HAIL.

&&

$$

SHULER

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KJAN [162024]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 162024
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
323 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1244 PM TSTM WND GST 1 N LAKE BRUIN 32.00N 91.26W
10/15/2009 E60.00 MPH TENSAS LA NWS STORM SURVEY

A NUMBER OF LARGE LIMBS AND SOME TREES DOWN ALONG THE
NORTHERN PART OF LAKE BRUIN...AND SOME DOWNED POWER
LINES...WERE DETERMINED TO BE THE RESULT OF STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS ESTIMATED AROUND 60 MPH.

1244 PM TORNADO 5 NW ST. JOSEPH 31.97N 91.30W
10/15/2009 F0 TENSAS LA NWS STORM SURVEY

EF0 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN 5 MILES NW OF ST. JOSEPH AT 1244
PM CDT...LIFTING 4 MILES NW OF ST. JOSEPH AT 1245 PM CDT.
MOBILE HOME ROLLED OVER. SOUTH AND WEST SIDES OF METAL
COMMERCIAL BUILDING BLOWN OUT...WITH SOME ROOF TILES
BLOWN OUT.

&&

$$

ACOHEN

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KJAX [161957]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 161957
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
357 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 PM HAIL 5 W GUANA RIVER STATE P 30.10N 81.42W
10/16/2009 E0.50 INCH ST. JOHNS FL PUBLIC

THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF HALF INCH SIZE HAIL IN THIS
AREA.

&&

$$

SHULER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161939
SWODY1
SPC AC 161937

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2009

VALID 162000Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...20Z UPDATE...
A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
NOW PROGRESSING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING CENTRAL/EASTERN
STATES UPPER TROUGH...APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING EAST
OF THE JACKSONVILLE AREA. IN ITS WAKE...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ADVANCE MORE RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHERN FLORIDA...LIKELY APPROACHING THE TAMPA/MELBOURNE AREAS BY
17/00Z. HOWEVER...WEAK/SHALLOW LIFT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...COUPLED
WITH WEAK UPPER FORCING...MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL NEW
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER INLAND AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

..KERR/COOK.. 10/16/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2009/

...FL...

MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA IS UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF A
RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT LOCATED LATE THIS MORNING FROM SERN GA
WSWWD ACROSS THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE.

WITH PWS AROUND 2 INCHES AND MLCAPES FROM 2500-3000 J/KG MUCH OF
PENINSULA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY MOVED INLAND ACROSS
TPA CWA AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL DEVELOP MUCH OF THE REMAINING
AREAS DURING AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL
REDEVELOP STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS IT
DROPS SWD.

GIVEN THE RATHER WEAK LAPSE RATES/WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS...LARGE HAIL
WOULD SEEM UNLIKELY TODAY...HOWEVER SUFFICIENT WESTERLY SHEAR
COUPLED WITH THE AVAILABLE CAPE FOR STORMS TO CONGEAL INTO SHORT
LINE SEGMENTS. SEVERE THREAT STILL SEEMS MARGINAL GIVEN THE WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...BUT STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITHIN ANY LINE SEGMENT THIS AFTERNOON.

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KBOX [161745]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KBOX 161745
LSRBOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
142 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG PLYMOUTH 41.96N 70.68W
10/16/2009 PLYMOUTH MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN

0555 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG WAREHAM 41.75N 70.72W
10/16/2009 XXX XX AMATEUR RADIO

TRANSFORMER WIRES DOWN IN WAREHAM IN SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH
COUNTY

0136 PM HIGH ASTR TIDES HULL 42.30N 70.90W
10/16/2009 PLYMOUTH MA AMATEUR RADIO

ATLANTIC AVE CLOSED BY MINOR FLOODING

0136 PM HIGH ASTR TIDES COHASSET 42.23N 70.80W
10/16/2009 NORFOLK MA AMATEUR RADIO

JERUSALEM RD CLOSED BY MINOR FLOODING

&&

$$

JFP

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 161722
SWODY2
SPC AC 161721

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2009

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT STRONG ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP EASTWARD TOWARD THE PACIFIC COAST DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN APPEARS
LIKELY TO REMAIN AMPLIFIED...WITH INTENSIFYING FLOW IN AN
ANTICYCLONIC BELT FROM MID/NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS EAST
NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
SOME SHARPENING OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. IS PROGGED...WITH ONE IN A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES DIGGING INTO ITS BASE EARLY SATURDAY...BEFORE LIFTING
THROUGH SOUTHERN AND MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS IN INCREASINGLY
SHEARED FASHION LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THIS LATTER
FEATURE MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A BAROCLINIC
ZONE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL COOLING AND
DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
CONTRIBUTE TO DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES.

THE EVOLVING PATTERN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN NEARLY NEGLIGIBLE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE ROCKIES...EVEN AS A LEE
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS/DEEPENS LATE IN THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO A
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE LIFTING ACROSS THE CANADIAN/NORTHERN
U.S. ROCKIES. BUT...THIS UPPER FEATURE...AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW...COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLIER IN THE PERIOD.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
A 70-90 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET STREAK IS PROGGED TO ACCOMPANY
THE INLAND PROGRESSING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...CONTRIBUTING TO
STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR ACROSS THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS LIKELY WILL
INCLUDE THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AREA...WHERE GUIDANCE INDICATES A
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DESTABILIZE AND BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WHILE INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO LACK
OF STRONGER COOLING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT...PROFILES SEEM
TO SUGGEST THAT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A STRONG/SEVERE
STORM OR TWO COULD FORM...WHICH COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.

...SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND MODEST SHEAR
ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BUT...ISOLATED OR
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITHIN THE WARM AND
MOIST PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

...MID ATLANTIC STATES...
WEAK CAPE EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BASED WITHIN A MOIST
MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING THROUGH THE FAVORABLE
MIXED PHASE LAYER FOR CHARGE SEPARATION...APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR
OCCASIONAL WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE MAY BE AS
LIFT INCREASES DOWNSTREAM OF THE IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

..KERR.. 10/16/2009

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2114

ACUS11 KWNS 161718
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161718
FLZ000-161915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2114
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 161718Z - 161915Z

STORM ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS N-CNTRL FL THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. AREA IS BEING MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE WW...BUT ISSUANCE WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE
TRENDS AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS/MOVES ONSHORE.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A SWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NERN FL
NEAR JACKSONVILLE SWWD TO NEAR HORSESHOE_BEACH. A ZONE OF PARTIAL
CLEARING HAS DEVELOPED IN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR ALLOWING DIABATIC
HEATING TO BOOST MLCAPE TO 2000 J/KG. A LINE OF STORMS ABOUT 25-30
NM OFFSHORE IS MOVING EAST AT 30-35 KT AND WILL LIKELY MOVE ONSHORE
SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. CONVERGENCE WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG GIVEN
WLY LOW LEVEL WINDS...SO IT IS POSSIBLE STORMS COULD WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVE INLAND. MOREOVER...TEMPERATURES IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER ARE
FAIRLY WARM. OTHER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG SWD ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE
STRONGER UPPER FLOW WITH 30-40 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL BULK SHEAR
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS.

..DIAL.. 10/16/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 29178130 28658241 29188285 29468323 29858290 30218149
29178130

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KOKX [161704]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KOKX 161704
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
104 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0517 AM STORM SURGE FREEPORT 40.65N 73.58W
10/16/2009 M6.11 FT NASSAU NY EMERGENCY MNGR

STREET FLOODING REPORTED.

1013 AM STORM SURGE KEARNY 40.75N 74.12W
10/16/2009 U0.00 FT HUDSON NJ EMERGENCY MNGR

ROUTE 7 IN KEARNY CLOSED AT 930 AM DUE TO COASTAL
FLOODING

1024 AM STORM SURGE LITTLE FERRY 40.85N 74.04W
10/16/2009 U0.00 FT BERGEN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

ROUTE 46 WAS REPORTED FLOODED AT THE HACKENSACK RIVER DUE
TO COASTAL FLOODING.

1045 AM STORM SURGE BAYVILLE 40.91N 73.56W
10/16/2009 U0.00 FT NASSAU NY EMERGENCY MNGR

FLOODING ON BAYVILLE AVENUE DUE TO COASTAL FLOODING.

1045 AM STORM SURGE 4 WSW BAYVILLE 40.88N 73.63W
10/16/2009 M7.35 FT NASSAU NY EMERGENCY MNGR

FLOODING ON SHEEP LANE IN LATTINGTOWN DUE TO COASTAL
FLOODING.

&&

$$

RC

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161602
SWODY1
SPC AC 161601

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1101 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2009

VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FL...

MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA IS UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF A
RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT LOCATED LATE THIS MORNING FROM SERN GA
WSWWD ACROSS THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE.

WITH PWS AROUND 2 INCHES AND MLCAPES FROM 2500-3000 J/KG MUCH OF
PENINSULA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY MOVED INLAND ACROSS
TPA CWA AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL DEVELOP MUCH OF THE REMAINING
AREAS DURING AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL
REDEVELOP STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS IT
DROPS SWD.

GIVEN THE RATHER WEAK LAPSE RATES/WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS...LARGE HAIL
WOULD SEEM UNLIKELY TODAY...HOWEVER SUFFICIENT WESTERLY SHEAR
COUPLED WITH THE AVAILABLE CAPE FOR STORMS TO CONGEAL INTO SHORT
LINE SEGMENTS. SEVERE THREAT STILL SEEMS MARGINAL GIVEN THE WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...BUT STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITHIN ANY LINE SEGMENT THIS AFTERNOON.

..HALES/GARNER.. 10/16/2009

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KFGF [161557]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 161557
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1057 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW LONG LOST LAKE 47.19N 95.42W
10/16/2009 M1.0 INCH CLEARWATER MN CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HR SNOWFALL.

&&

$$

WBARRETT

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KFGF [161557]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 161557
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1056 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 1 W LANGDON 48.76N 98.39W
10/16/2009 M1.0 INCH CAVALIER ND CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HR SNOWFALL.

&&

$$

WBARRETT

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KFGF [161556]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 161556
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1056 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 3 N HANSBORO 49.00N 99.38W
10/16/2009 M1.0 INCH TOWNER ND CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HR SNOWFALL.

&&

$$

WBARRETT

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KFGF [161554]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 161554
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1053 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 1 NW EDMORE 48.42N 98.47W
10/16/2009 M1.0 INCH RAMSEY ND CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HR SNOWFALL.

&&

$$

WBARRETT

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KTAE [161547]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS52 KTAE 161547
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1146 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0432 AM HAIL 10 SW TALLAHASSEE 30.34N 84.40W
10/16/2009 E1.75 INCH LEON FL TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA TO GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL AT C.H. CORN HYDROELECTRIC
PLANT

0442 AM TSTM WND GST 5 SW TALLAHASSEE 30.39N 84.34W
10/16/2009 M58.00 MPH LEON FL ASOS

RECORDED AT THE KTLH AIRPORT ASOS

0443 AM TSTM WND DMG WOODVILLE 30.31N 84.25W
10/16/2009 LEON FL EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS TREES DOWNED...MANY ON POWER LINES. FALLEN TREES
DAMAGED ELEVEN HOMES OVERALL. EMA REPORTED DAMAGE TO TEN
OF THOSE HOMES INCLUDING TWO ON OLD WOODVILLE
ROAD...THREE ON WOODVILLE HIGHWAY...AND ONE EACH ON
WAKULLA SPRINGS ROAD...GRUBBS ROAD...REGISTER
ROAD...BARWICK DRIVE AND NATURAL BRIDGE ROAD. THE PUBLIC
REPORTED OF A TREE LIMB THROUGH A MOBILE HOME WALL ON
SPRING SINK ROAD. THERE WERE NO INJURIES.

0505 AM TSTM WND DMG 2 S WOODVILLE 30.29N 84.25W
10/16/2009 WAKULLA FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES DOWNED IN THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE COUNTY.

0510 AM TSTM WND DMG VALDOSTA 30.85N 83.28W
10/16/2009 LOWNDES GA LAW ENFORCEMENT

LARGE TREE FELL ON A CAR ON CLOVER ROAD. LARGE TREE DOWN
BLOCKING THE ROAD ON SHERER ROAD.

0525 AM TSTM WND DMG 1 SW COURTHOUSE 31.07N 83.03W
10/16/2009 LANIER GA LAW ENFORCEMENT

ONE LARGE TREE DOWN ON RICHARDSON ROAD NEAR ROUTE 221
NORTH.

&&

$$

WOOL

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KOKX [161537]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KOKX 161537
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1137 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0517 AM STORM SURGE FREEPORT 40.65N 73.58W
10/16/2009 M6.11 FT NASSAU NY EMERGENCY MNGR

STREET FLOODING REPORTED.

1013 AM STORM SURGE KEARNY 40.75N 74.12W
10/16/2009 U0.00 FT HUDSON NJ EMERGENCY MNGR

ROUTE 7 IN KEARNY CLOSED AT 930 AM DUE TO COASTAL
FLOODING

1024 AM STORM SURGE LITTLE FERRY 40.85N 74.04W
10/16/2009 U0.00 FT BERGEN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

ROUTE 46 WAS REPORTED FLOODED AT THE HACKENSACK RIVER DUE
TO COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

$$

RC

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KOKX [161521]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KOKX 161521
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1120 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1013 AM STORM SURGE KEARNY 40.75N 74.12W
10/16/2009 U0.00 FT HUDSON NJ EMERGENCY MNGR

ROUTE 7 IN KEARNY CLOSED AT 930 AM DUE TO COASTAL
FLOODING

&&

$$

JMC

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KFGF [161504]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 161504
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1003 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 3 N SARLES 48.99N 99.00W
10/16/2009 M2.0 INCH CAVALIER ND CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HR SNOWFALL.

&&

$$

WBARRETT

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KOKX [161428]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KOKX 161428
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1028 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1024 AM STORM SURGE LITTLE FERRY 40.85N 74.04W
10/16/2009 E0.00 FT BERGEN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

ROUTE 46 WAS REPORTED FLOODED AT THE HACKENSACK RIVER DUE
TO COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

$$

PFM

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KOKX [161417]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KOKX 161417
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1017 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1013 AM FLOOD KEARNY 40.75N 74.12W
10/16/2009 HUDSON NJ EMERGENCY MNGR

ROUTE 7 IN KEARNY CLOSED AT 930 AM DUE TO COASTAL
FLOODING

&&

$$

JMC

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KTAE [161315]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KTAE 161315
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
915 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 AM TSTM WND DMG WOODVILLE 30.31N 84.25W
10/16/2009 LEON FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES. FALLEN TREES DAMAGED
FOUR HOMES...TWO ON OLD WOODVILLE ROAD AND ONE EACH ON
WAKULLA SPRINGS ROAD AND GRUBBS ROAD.

&&

$$

WOOL

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KLCH [161311]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KLCH 161311
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
811 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 37 SSW BURNS POINT 29.12N 91.87W
10/16/2009 M106 MPH GMZ455 LA PUBLIC

KSRN PLATFORM REPORTED WIND GUST TO 106 MPH.

&&

$$

KKUYPER

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KLCH [161308]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 161308
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
807 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0806 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 37 SSW BURNS POINT 29.12N 91.87W
10/16/2009 M0 MPH GMZ455 LA PUBLIC

76 MPH WITH GUST TO 106 MPH

&&

$$

KKUYPER

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KTAE [161303]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTAE 161303
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
902 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 AM TSTM WND DMG WOODVILLE 30.31N 84.25W
10/16/2009 LEON FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES. DAMAGE TO SOME HOMES.

&&

$$

AUSTIN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161244
SWODY1
SPC AC 161243

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2009

VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WRN RDG/ERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY THIS PERIOD AS
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW ENTERING ND CONTINUES SE TO THE LWR MS/LWR TN
VLYS. AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE...A SERIES OF WEAKER PERTURBATIONS
WILL CONTINUE ESE FROM AR/MS INTO AL/GA. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP
COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING N FL MOVING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY ESEWD. THE
FRONT SHOULD REACH A DAB-TPA LINE THIS EVE...AND BE NEAR LK
OKEECHOBEE BY 12Z SAT.

...FL...
SFC HEATING SHOULD TEMPORARILY BOOST TSTM COVERAGE ALONG/JUST AHEAD
OF WSW/ENE COLD FRONT OVER NRN/CNTRL FL TODAY. ADDITIONAL MORE
WIDELY SCTD STORMS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG SW/NE
CONFLUENCE AXIS SE OF FRONT.

DEEP WLY FLOW WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE
TO AMPLIFICATION OF LARGER SCALE ERN U.S. TROUGH. WHILE THIS WILL
SERVE TO INCREASE DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY SHEAR...SWD COMPONENT OF
FRONTAL MOVEMENT LIKELY WILL KEEP PACE WITH THE INCREASING FLOW
...AND SHUNT AREA OF STRONGEST CONVECTION SWD WITH TIME.

WHILE LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AND DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK...COMBINATION OF HI PW /CLOSE TO 2 INCHES/ AND 30+ KT
DEEP WLY SHEAR MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD/SHORT-LIVED BOWING
SEGMENTS WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND. ANY SUCH THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
LATER THIS AFTN AND EVE AS FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF UPR TROUGH
INDUCES SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE GA/SC CST...REDUCING
CONVERGENCE OVER FL.

..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 10/16/2009

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KTAE [161215]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTAE 161215
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
815 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0505 AM TSTM WND DMG 2 S WOODVILLE 30.29N 84.25W
10/16/2009 WAKULLA FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES DOWNED IN THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE COUNTY.

&&

$$

WOOL

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KTAE [161159]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTAE 161159
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
759 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0510 AM TSTM WND DMG VALDOSTA 30.85N 83.28W
10/16/2009 LOWNDES GA LAW ENFORCEMENT

LARGE TREE FELL ON A CAR ON CLOVER ROAD. LARGE TREE DOWN
BLOCKING THE ROAD ON SHERER ROAD.

0525 AM TSTM WND DMG 1 SW COURTHOUSE 31.07N 83.03W
10/16/2009 LANIER GA LAW ENFORCEMENT

ONE LARGE TREE DOWN ON RICHARDSON ROAD NEAR ROUTE 221
NORTH.

&&

$$

WOOL

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KBOX [161018]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBOX 161018
LSRBOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
618 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG PLYMOUTH 41.96N 70.68W
10/16/2009 PLYMOUTH MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN

0555 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG WAREHAM 41.75N 70.72W
10/16/2009 XXX XX AMATEUR RADIO

TRANSFORMER WIRES DOWN IN WAREHAM IN SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH
COUNTY

&&

$$

NSTRAUSS

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KTAE [160928]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTAE 160928
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
528 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0432 AM HAIL 10 SW TALLAHASSEE 30.34N 84.40W
10/16/2009 E1.75 INCH LEON FL TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA TO GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL AT C.H. CORN HYDROELECTRIC
PLANT

&&

$$

FOURNIER

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KTAE [160925]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTAE 160925
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
525 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0442 AM TSTM WND GST 5 SW TALLAHASSEE 30.39N 84.34W
10/16/2009 M58 MPH LEON FL ASOS

RECORDED AT THE KTLH AIRPORT ASOS

&&

$$

FOURNIER

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 160848
SWOD48
SPC AC 160847

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2009

VALID 191200Z - 241200Z

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD DEVELOPING AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WEST AND MOVING THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS REGION BY TUESDAY/DAY 5. MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
ADVECT NWD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
GREAT PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. DUE
TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...MOISTURE RETURN IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE LONG ENOUGH FOR A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY/DAY 6 AND INTO THE SERN U.S. ON
THURSDAY/DAY 7. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR A SUBSTANTIAL
SEVERE THREAT.

..BROYLES.. 10/16/2009

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KLIX [160715]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KLIX 160715
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
215 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0620 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 N POPLARVILLE 30.88N 89.53W
10/15/2009 PEARL RIVER MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

REPORT OF SEVERAL TREES DOWN NEAR SPRING HILL ROAD AND US
HIGHWAY 11. REPORT FROM PEARL RIVER EOC.

1006 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 3 SSW GULFPORT 30.35N 89.09W
10/15/2009 M42.00 MPH GMZ555 MS C-MAN STATION

1012 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 12 SSE GULFPORT 30.23N 88.98W
10/15/2009 M40.00 MPH GMZ555 MS C-MAN STATION

0100 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 4 NE YSCLOSKEY 29.88N 89.64W
10/16/2009 M39.00 MPH GMZ555 LA OTHER FEDERAL

GUST TO 34 KNOTS AT SHBL1...SHELL BEACH.

0130 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 12 SSE GULFPORT 30.23N 88.98W
10/16/2009 M39.00 MPH GMZ555 MS C-MAN STATION

0140 AM TSTM WND DMG DES ALLEMANDS 29.83N 90.43W
10/16/2009 ST. CHARLES LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 90...ALSO POWER LINES DOWN IN
PARADIS AND BAYOU GAUCHE. REPORTED BY ST. CHARLES EOC.

&&

$$

RSW

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KLIX [160713]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 160713
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
213 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 4 NE YSCLOSKEY 29.88N 89.64W
10/16/2009 M39 MPH GMZ555 LA OTHER FEDERAL

GUST TO 34 KNOTS AT SHBL1...SHELL BEACH.

&&

$$

RSW

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KLIX [160708]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 160708
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
208 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 12 SSE GULFPORT 30.23N 88.98W
10/16/2009 M39 MPH GMZ555 MS C-MAN STATION

&&

$$

RSW

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 160658
SWODY3
SPC AC 160657

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2009

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE ERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE MS
VALLEY AND GULF COAST REGION SUPPRESSING MOISTURE RETURN. FOR THIS
REASON...CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WHERE TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COLD AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COULD ENCOURAGE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. NONE OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ORGANIZED DURING
THE DAY 3 PERIOD.

..BROYLES.. 10/16/2009

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KLIX [160653]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 160653
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
153 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0140 AM TSTM WND DMG DES ALLEMANDS 29.83N 90.43W
10/16/2009 ST. CHARLES LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 90...ALSO POWER LINES DOWN IN
PARADIS AND BAYOU GAUCHE. REPORTED BY ST. CHARLES EOC.

&&

$$

RSW

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 160541
SWODY1
SPC AC 160540

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2009

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FL...

SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA FRIDAY AS
DOMINANT SFC HIGH BUILDS/EXPANDS SEWD ACROSS THE CONUS. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WLY FLOW WILL DEEPEN OVER FL AS
PRIMARY MID LEVEL JET SAGS SWD WITHIN THE BASE OF THE ERN U.S.
TROUGH. AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH PWAT VALUES
ON THE ORDER OF 1.5-2 INCHES. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL ENHANCE
INSTABILITY/CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES. EARLY
THIS MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ALONG ADVANCING WIND SHIFT FROM
SRN LA INTO SRN GA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
PSEUDO ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS. GIVEN THE WEAK LAPSE
RATES IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT HAIL WILL BE A CONCERN...WHILE ANY
MEANINGFUL TORNADO THREAT SHOULD ALSO REMAIN LOW DUE TO WEAK LOW
LEVEL SHEAR. FOR THIS REASON WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES FOR
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.
CONVECTION SHOULD MIGRATE WITH THE FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL INTO THE
SRN PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..DARROW/GRAMS.. 10/16/2009

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 160538
SWODY2
SPC AC 160537

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2009

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE
EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES SATURDAY. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN SRN FL IN
THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MODERATE INSTABILITY
IS FORECAST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
TOO WEAK FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW OFFSHORE. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN SERN AZ AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST MAY ALSO ENCOURAGE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN NRN
ORE AND SRN WA. NONE OF THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ORGANIZED.

..BROYLES.. 10/16/2009

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KLIX [160413]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 160413
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1113 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1012 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 12 SSE GULFPORT 30.23N 88.98W
10/15/2009 M40 MPH GMZ555 MS C-MAN STATION

&&

$$

RSW

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KLIX [160411]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 160411
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1111 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1006 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 3 SSW GULFPORT 30.35N 89.09W
10/15/2009 M42 MPH GMZ555 MS C-MAN STATION

&&

$$

RSW

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