Wednesday, July 31, 2013

KDDC [312155]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 312155
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
454 PM CDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0454 PM HAIL 2 E GARDEN CITY 37.98N 100.83W
07/31/2013 E1.50 INCH FINNEY KS EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

$$

UMSCHEID

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KMQT [312152]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 312152
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
552 PM EDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM HAIL 3 N CHAMPION 46.56N 87.97W
07/31/2013 E0.25 INCH MARQUETTE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA SIZED HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.


&&

$$

DODSON

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KJAX [312145]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 312145
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
545 PM EDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 S NEWNANS LAKE 29.64N 82.24W
07/31/2013 ALACHUA FL EMERGENCY MNGR

ALACHUA COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS TREES DOWNED
BY STRONG WIND GUSTS NEAR NEWNANS LAKE IN THE VICINITY
GAINESVILLE. TIME OF DAMAGE ESTIMATED BY RADAR IMAGERY

0545 PM FLOOD 2 S GAINESVILLE 29.65N 82.34W
07/31/2013 ALACHUA FL EMERGENCY MNGR

SIGNIFICANT FLOODING REPORTED ALONG VARIOUS PORTIONS OF
UNIVERSITY AVENUE AND THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA CAMPUS
AREA BY ALACHUA COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND
GAINESVILLE TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT CENTER.


&&

$$

NELSON

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KDDC [312145]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 312145
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
444 PM CDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0427 PM TSTM WND GST NE GARDEN CITY 37.98N 100.86W
07/31/2013 E60 MPH FINNEY KS TRAINED SPOTTER

THE SPOTTER WAS LOCATED ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF GARDEN
CITY


&&

$$

UMSCHEID

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KDDC [312145]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 312145
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
445 PM CDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0440 PM TSTM WND GST 5 N DEERFIELD 38.06N 101.14W
07/31/2013 E60 MPH KEARNY KS PUBLIC


&&

$$

WHOVORKA

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KAPX [312144]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 312144
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
544 PM EDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0541 PM TSTM WND GST CURTIS 46.20N 85.75W
07/31/2013 E60.00 MPH MACKINAC MI BROADCAST MEDIA

ESTIMATED 60 MPH WINDS AT CURTIS WITH PEA TO NICKEL SIZED
HAIL. MEASURED 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN IN 35 MINUTES.


&&

$$

SCHWARTZ

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KCYS [312136]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 312136
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
336 PM MDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0318 PM TSTM WND GST 20 W ALBIN 41.42N 104.49W
07/31/2013 E60 MPH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MWEILAND

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KDDC [312132]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 312132
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
432 PM CDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM TSTM WND GST 4 WSW FRIEND 38.22N 100.97W
07/31/2013 M67.00 MPH FINNEY KS PUBLIC

0415 PM HAIL 4 WSW FRIEND 38.22N 100.97W
07/31/2013 E0.88 INCH FINNEY KS PUBLIC


&&

$$

01

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KCHS [312131]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 312131
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
531 PM EDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0431 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 NNE RINCON 32.34N 81.21W
07/31/2013 U0.00 INCH EFFINGHAM GA TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED 1 TO 2 FEET OF RUNNING WATER ON MILL
POND ROAD.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300753

$$

TIMTE

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KDDC [312129]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 312129
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
429 PM CDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0420 PM HAIL 12 SE FRIEND 38.13N 100.76W
07/31/2013 E1.75 INCH FINNEY KS PUBLIC


&&

$$

WHOVORKA

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KDDC [312128]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 312128
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
428 PM CDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0427 PM TSTM WND GST 6 N GARDEN CITY 38.06N 100.86W
07/31/2013 E60 MPH FINNEY KS EMERGENCY MNGR

SIGNIFICANT BLOWING DUST WAS REPORTED WITH THE ESTIMATED
WIND GUST PRODUCING ONE QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY OR LESS


&&

$$

UMSCHEID

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KCHS [312126]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 312126
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
526 PM EDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0425 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 NNW SHIRLEY 32.70N 81.34W
07/31/2013 HAMPTON SC DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTS TREE DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION
AUGUSTA STAGECOACH ROAD AND JERICHO ROAD.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300752

$$

TIMTE

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KDDC [312124]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 312124
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
424 PM CDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0420 PM TSTM WND GST 11 SSE CIMARRON 37.66N 100.27W
07/31/2013 E60 MPH GRAY KS PUBLIC


&&

$$

WHOVORKA

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MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

AWUS01 KWNH 312122
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-010021-

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0188
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
521 PM EDT WED JUL 31 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN GA/NORTHERN FL/COASTAL SC...

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING UNLIKELY

VALID 312121Z - 010021Z

SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS REMAIN A FOCUS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG THE GA/SC COAST AND EXTENDING ALONG THE GA/FL
PANHANDLE BORDER. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS UNLIKELY
GIVEN HIGH FFG VALUES IN PLACE.


DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHICH HAS BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HAS GRADUALLY MERGED WITH THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
DEVELOPED ALONG THE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. THE
STORM MOTIONS HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY SLOW AND GENERALLY TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST. THE 20Z RAP SUGGESTS THE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
OVER A REGION WHICH STILL HAS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
GIVEN MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/JG WITHOUT MUCH INHIBITION.
ADDITIONALLY...THESE PARAMETERS DO NOT APPEAR TO CHANGE MUCH
THROUGH NIGHTFALL WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO PERSIST
BEYOND 00Z. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO FOCUS ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN
MAXIMIZED. THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO BELIEVE THE NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD CHANGE MUCH IN THE MEANWHILE ALTHOUGH FLASH
FLOODING REMAINS UNLIKELY GIVEN RATHER HIGH FFG VALUES. THE
CHARLESTON SC RADAR INDICATES 1 TO 2 INCH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES
ALONG THE AXIS OF SURFACE OUTFLOW WITH STORM TOTAL ESTIMATES
HAVING EXCEEDED 4 INCHES. IN GENERAL...HIGH RES MODELS HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE EVENT SO MOST OF THE
ASSESSMENT AND SHORT-TERM FORECAST HAVE BEEN BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS...DUAL-POL QPE ESTIMATES...AND STORM MODE.


RUBIN-OSTER

...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON 31808608 31938576 31958427 32068300 32428206 33348120
33468006 33017979 32067997 31328055 30788150 30478270
30358378 30338489 30518559 30808618 31268646 31808608

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KJAX [312122]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 312122
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
522 PM EDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM LIGHTNING 5 SW KINGS BAY BASE 30.74N 81.57W
07/31/2013 CAMDEN GA BROADCAST MEDIA

WTEV RELAYED A PUBLIC REPORT OF LIGHTNING DAMAGE IN THE
VICINITY OF ST. MARYS. A LARGE TREE WAS DOWNED AND
STRIPPED OF SOME OF ITS BARK BY A LIGHTNING STRIKE.

0330 PM LIGHTNING 5 SSE LAKE CITY 30.13N 82.60W
07/31/2013 COLUMBIA FL 911 CALL CENTER

COLUMBIA COUNTY 911 DISPATCH REPORTS THAT LIGHTNING
CAUSED A STRUCTURE FIRE NEAR LAKE CITY. TIME OF DAMAGE
ESTIMATED BY RADAR IMAGERY.

0500 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 SSE LAKE CITY 30.18N 82.64W
07/31/2013 E3.00 INCH COLUMBIA FL BROADCAST MEDIA

WTEV RELAYED A PUBLIC REPORT OF AN ESTIMATED RAINFALL
TOTAL OF 3 INCHES IN LAKE CITY FROM HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. A STORM SPOTTER ALSO REPORTED ANKLE DEEP
WATER NEAR THE VETERANS ADMINISTRATION HOSPITAL IN LAKE
CITY DURING THE THUNDERSTORM.


&&

$$

NELSON

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KCHS [312120]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 312120
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
520 PM EDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0448 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 SSE HARDEEVILLE 32.22N 81.05W
07/31/2013 JASPER SC 911 CALL CENTER

WARNING POINT REPORTED TREE DOWN ON POWER LINES NEAR
THE INTERSECTION OF FREEDOM PARKWAY AND FORD LANE.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300751

$$

TIMTE

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KCYS [312107]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 312107
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
307 PM MDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0258 PM HAIL 20 W ALBIN 41.42N 104.49W
07/31/2013 M0.88 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN WAS ALSO FALLING.


&&

$$

MWEILAND

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KCHS [312106]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 312106
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
506 PM EDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0327 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 ENE COOSAWHATCHIE 32.59N 80.91W
07/31/2013 JASPER SC 911 CALL CENTER

WARNING POINT REPORTED 2 TREES DOWN ON POINT SOUTH
ROAD.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300750

$$

TIMTE

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KCYS [312102]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 312102
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
302 PM MDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0258 PM HAIL 20 W ALBIN 41.42N 104.49W
07/31/2013 M0.25 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN WAS ALSO FALLING.


&&

$$

MWEILAND

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KDDC [312046]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 312046
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
345 PM CDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0340 PM HAIL 1 NE SHALLOW WATER 38.37N 100.90W
07/31/2013 E1.00 INCH SCOTT KS PUBLIC


&&

$$

WHOVORKA

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KDDC [312040]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 312040
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
340 PM CDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0336 PM HAIL 2 N HOWELL 37.81N 100.18W
07/31/2013 E1.00 INCH FORD KS STORM CHASER


&&

$$

WHOVORKA

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KDDC [312039]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 312039
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
339 PM CDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0326 PM HAIL SCOTT CITY 38.48N 100.91W
07/31/2013 E1.00 INCH SCOTT KS PUBLIC


&&

$$

WHOVORKA

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KJAX [312030]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 312030
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
430 PM EDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0410 PM HEAVY RAIN SAN MARCO 30.31N 81.66W
07/31/2013 E1.39 INCH DUVAL FL BROADCAST MEDIA

WTEV RELAYED A PUBLIC REPORT OF 1.39 INCHES OF RAINFALL
THUS FAR IN THE SAN MARCO AREA OF JACKSONVILLE.


&&

$$

NELSON

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KMQT [312016]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 312016
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
416 PM EDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0335 PM HAIL 5 NE MUNISING 46.46N 86.57W
07/31/2013 E0.50 INCH ALGER MI PARK/FOREST SRVC

NEAR MINERS CASTLE ROAD.TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.


&&

$$

DODSON

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KDDC [312013]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 312013
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
313 PM CDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0312 PM HAIL 4 N SCOTT CITY 38.54N 100.91W
07/31/2013 E1.00 INCH SCOTT KS PUBLIC

QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND 50 TO 60 MPH WINDS


&&

$$

WHOVORKA

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KMQT [312003]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 312003
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
403 PM EDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0350 PM HAIL MELSTRAND 46.46N 86.42W
07/31/2013 E1.00 INCH ALGER MI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

DODSON

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KMQT [312002]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 312002
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
402 PM EDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM TSTM WND GST 3 NE MUNISING 46.44N 86.61W
07/31/2013 E45 MPH ALGER MI TRAINED SPOTTER

TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR-WINDS GUSTED BETWEEN 40-45 MPH.


&&

$$

DODSON

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KDDC [311950]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 311950
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
250 PM CDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0248 PM HAIL 7 WSW SYRACUSE 37.94N 101.87W
07/31/2013 E0.75 INCH HAMILTON KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

WHOVORKA

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 311939
SWODY1
SPC AC 311937

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT WED JUL 31 2013

VALID 312000Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS INTO THIS EVENING...

...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
CONTINUED TO SHIFT HIGHER SEVERE HAZARD PROBABILITIES FARTHER SW TO
ACCOUNT FOR PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ACROSS THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS. THIS REGION LIES IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE STOUT
MID/UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...RESULTING IN PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER
DEEP-LAYER FLOW WITH SRN EXTENT. BUT A RATHER FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
RELATIVELY HIGH PW CONTENT SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TSTM
CLUSTERS PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL/WIND. COALESCING UPDRAFTS COULD YIELD
A SEMI-ORGANIZED COLD POOL DEVELOPING SWD INTO EARLY/MID-EVENING.

FARTHER N...CONVERGENCE IS QUITE LIMITED ALONG A DECAYING FRONTAL
SURGE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TSTMS MAY GRADUALLY
DEVELOP EWD FROM THE LEE OF THE FRONT RANGE IN CO/SERN WY WITH
LOCALIZED SEVERE HAIL/WIND POSSIBLE.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES/MS VALLEY...
ADJUSTED LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES BASED ON CURRENT POSITION OF COLD
FRONT...OTHERWISE NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING.

...ORE...
NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

..GRAMS.. 07/31/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT WED JUL 31 2013/

...SYNOPSIS...

A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID AND UPPER-LEVEL WIND
MAXIMA OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL PROGRESS SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES CONTRIBUTING TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE SERN CONUS. ELSEWHERE...AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NM WHILE A MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES ONTO THE PACIFIC NW AND SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA
COASTS.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...AN INITIAL COLD FRONTAL SURGE FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH MID MS VALLEY INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL PROGRESS
EWD/SEWD AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND MID TO LOWER-MO VALLEY.

...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER /I.E. LOWEST 100-MB MEAN-MIXING RATIOS OF 13-16 G PER KG/
BETWEEN THE ABOVE-MENTIONED COLD FRONTS...AND BENEATH A PLUME OF
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO
STRONG AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000+ J/KG. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY DISCERNIBLE MIDLEVEL FORCING MECHANISMS...THE
PRESENCE OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONTS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH
ACROSS WRN KS WILL SERVE AS FOCI FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. LOW-LEVEL
ELY/SELY WINDS EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH MODEST
/20-30 KT/ NWLY WINDS AT 500 MB...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH A
RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS INTO THIS EVENING.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MENTIONED IN
THE SYNOPSIS WILL AUGMENT LOW-LEVEL UPLIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO
FOSTER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE AN
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THOUGH ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF
HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.

...OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

TERRAIN-INDUCED CIRCULATIONS WILL BE BOLSTERED BY DEEPER-LAYER
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A VORTICITY MAXIMUM ROTATING
AROUND THE PARENT UPPER LOW TO PROMOTE WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS LATER
TODAY. THE 12Z MFR SOUNDING SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES IN THE 700-500-MB LAYER WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH A MODESTLY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP SWLY SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
HIGH-BASED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL.

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KJAX [311913]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 311913
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
313 PM EDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0250 PM TSTM WND DMG YULEE 30.63N 81.57W
07/31/2013 NASSAU FL COUNTY OFFICIAL

LARGE TREE DOWN WITH SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO HOUSE AT 86190
PAGES DAIRY ROAD.


&&

$$

ZALLEN

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 453

WWUS20 KWNS 311901
SEL3
SPC WW 311901
COZ000-KSZ000-NMZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-010400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 453
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
200 PM CDT WED JUL 31 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST COLORADO
WESTERN KANSAS
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 200 PM
UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 95 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF GARDEN CITY KANSAS TO 25 MILES SOUTH OF TUCUMCARI
NEW MEXICO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG SEVERAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
THIS AFTERNOON AMIDST A MOIST AND MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000+ J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY
COINCIDES WITH A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING MODEST /30-35 KT/
DEEP NWLY SHEAR WHICH WILL SUPPORT MULTICELLS AND SOME SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS WILL
LIKELY COALESCE INTO SWD OR SWWD-MOVING CLUSTERS BY EVENING WITH A
CONTINUED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 36020.


...MEAD

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1574

ACUS11 KWNS 311846
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311845
MIZ000-WIZ000-312015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1574
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CDT WED JUL 31 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WI / ERN UPPER MI / FAR NRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 311845Z - 312015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP/INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW INSTANCES OF HAIL/STRONG
WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH UNDERGOING
AMPLIFICATION AS IT MOVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE
TO OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
BISECTING THE U.P. OF MI AND WI. ALTHOUGH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES HAVE
RESULTED IN A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...MODEST LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MARGINAL BUOYANCY WILL TEND TO LIMIT STORM
ORGANIZATION...AND CONFINE ANY SEVERE THREAT TO A FEW POSSIBLE
OCCURRENCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 07/31/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...ARX...

LAT...LON 45848415 44428773 44338998 44859034 46548608 46638433
45848415

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1573

ACUS11 KWNS 311835
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311834
KSZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-312030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1573
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 PM CDT WED JUL 31 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS...SERN CO...NERN NM...OK/TX PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 311834Z - 312030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A FEW STRONG CELLS HAVE ALREADY FORMED OVER NERN
NM...WITH DEEPENING CU FIELDS EXTENDING INTO SERN CO. FARTHER E...AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS SITUATED ACROSS WRN KS...WITH TCU THERE AS
WELL. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS BOTH INDICATE
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION
WITH MID 60S OR HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AND WEAK ELY SURFACE
FLOW.

MODEST NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS RESULTING IN A MARGINAL...YET SUFFICIENTLY
LONG HODOGRAPHS FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS AND/OR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF
SEVERE STORMS. WITH CONTINUED HEATING...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
ORGANIZE OVER NERN NM/SERN CO...AS WELL AS ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTO WRN KS. STORMS WILL THEN PROPAGATE MAINLY IN A SWD
DIRECTION...AFFECTING THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT AND FAVORABLE TIMING WITH PEAK
HEATING...A SWATH OF BOTH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..JEWELL/MEAD.. 07/31/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 34800103 34520177 34620302 35100384 36380418 36960393
37740314 38620190 38670134 38310047 37650009 36380025
35290021 34800103

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 311725
SWODY2
SPC AC 311723

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT WED JUL 31 2013

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE CNTRL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE NRN ROCKIES...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST AND GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...WITH A RIDGE EMANATING NWD
FROM AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE IS ANTICIPATED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE BASAL PORTION OF THE
NORTHWEST TROUGH AND EJECT TOWARDS THE NRN ROCKIES BY THU AFTERNOON.
SMALLER SCALE PERTURBATIONS SHOULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONGER FLOW
AROUND THE CREST OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC REGIME THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD LIE INVOF THE NEB/SD BORDER...WITH A
LEE TROUGH ALONG THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.

...CNTRL PLAINS...
A COUPLE OF ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTERS MAY BE ONGOING AT 12Z/THU WITHIN
A WAA REGIME AS LOW-LEVEL SLYS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATE D1
CONTRIBUTE TO SUSTAINING 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR S OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. HOW THIS CONVECTION EVOLVES
DURING THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE IS UNCLEAR...BUT ROBUST INSOLATION
SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN THIS ACTIVITY AND THE LEE TROUGH. WITHIN AN EML
PLUME YIELDING RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SETUP SHOULD
RESULT IN AMPLE BUOYANCY /CENTERED OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE/ WITH
MLCAPE POTENTIALLY REACHING 2000-3000 J/KG. AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS
WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE TROUGH/FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. PRONOUNCED DEEP-LAYER SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH PRIMARY RISKS OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A
FEW TORNADOES. A STRENGTHENING LLJ DURING THE EVENING SHOULD PROMOTE
THE GROWTH OF ONE OR MORE MCS/S EVOLVING E/SEWD TOWARDS THE LOWER
PLAINS WITH THREATS OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL PERSISTING INTO EARLY FRI.

...NRN ROCKIES...
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL STRENGTHEN MARKEDLY DURING THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE AS MID-LEVEL DCVA INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT NUMEROUS
STORMS WILL DEVELOP RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON....WHICH
RENDERS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION
/ESPECIALLY WITH NWRN EXTENT/. BUT WITHIN A BELT OF ENHANCED
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE IMPULSE...A COUPLE OF
SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP WITH RISKS OF WIND/HAIL WHERE POCKETS OF
GREATER INSOLATION CAN OCCUR.

..GRAMS.. 07/31/2013

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KLBF [311709]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 311709
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1209 PM CDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1204 PM HEAVY RAIN 7 N RINGGOLD 41.61N 100.77W
07/31/2013 M2.00 INCH MCPHERSON NE PUBLIC


&&

$$

JGOMEZ

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KLBF [311659]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 311659
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1159 AM CDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1154 AM HEAVY RAIN 7 S ELSMERE 42.06N 100.18W
07/31/2013 M1.40 INCH BLAINE NE PUBLIC

1158 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 W NORTH PLATTE 41.13N 100.83W
07/31/2013 M0.75 INCH LINCOLN NE PUBLIC


&&

$$

JGOMEZ

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KLBF [311635]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 311635
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1135 AM CDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1115 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 NW BRULE 41.16N 101.97W
07/30/2013 KEITH NE PUBLIC

10 INCH DIAMETER BRANCHES DOWNED.


&&

$$

JWS

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KLBF [311626]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 311626
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1126 AM CDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 AM TSTM WND GST 5 N WAUNETA 40.49N 101.37W
07/31/2013 E60 MPH CHASE NE PUBLIC

ESTIMATED WIND GUST OF 50 TO 70 MPH WINDS. WINDS BLEW TIN
AROUND IN THE YARD.


&&

$$

JGOMEZ

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 311610
SWODY1
SPC AC 311607

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1107 AM CDT WED JUL 31 2013

VALID 311630Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID AND UPPER-LEVEL WIND
MAXIMA OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL PROGRESS SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES CONTRIBUTING TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE SERN CONUS. ELSEWHERE...AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER NM WHILE A MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES ONTO THE PACIFIC NW AND SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA
COASTS.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...AN INITIAL COLD FRONTAL SURGE FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH MID MS VALLEY INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL PROGRESS
EWD/SEWD AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND MID TO LOWER-MO VALLEY.

...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER /I.E. LOWEST 100-MB MEAN-MIXING RATIOS OF 13-16 G PER KG/
BETWEEN THE ABOVE-MENTIONED COLD FRONTS...AND BENEATH A PLUME OF
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO
STRONG AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000+ J/KG. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY DISCERNIBLE MIDLEVEL FORCING MECHANISMS...THE
PRESENCE OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONTS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH
ACROSS WRN KS WILL SERVE AS FOCI FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. LOW-LEVEL
ELY/SELY WINDS EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH MODEST
/20-30 KT/ NWLY WINDS AT 500 MB...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH A
RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS INTO THIS EVENING.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MENTIONED IN
THE SYNOPSIS WILL AUGMENT LOW-LEVEL UPLIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO
FOSTER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE AN
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THOUGH ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF
HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.

...OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

TERRAIN-INDUCED CIRCULATIONS WILL BE BOLSTERED BY DEEPER-LAYER
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A VORTICITY MAXIMUM ROTATING
AROUND THE PARENT UPPER LOW TO PROMOTE WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS LATER
TODAY. THE 12Z MFR SOUNDING SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES IN THE 700-500-MB LAYER WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH A MODESTLY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP SWLY SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
HIGH-BASED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL.

..MEAD/SMITH.. 07/31/2013

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KCHS [311510]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KCHS 311510
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1109 AM EDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1037 AM WATER SPOUT 21 SE FOLLY FIELD 32.00N 80.43W
07/31/2013 AMZ352 SC COAST GUARD

REPORT OF 2 WATERSPOUTS RELAYED BY THE COAST GUARD.


&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300749

$$

VB

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KCHS [311506]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 311506
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1106 AM EDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1039 AM WATER SPOUT 21 SE FOLLY FIELD 32.00N 80.43W
07/31/2013 AMZ352 SC COAST GUARD

REPORT OF 2 WATERSPOUTS RELAYED BY THE COAST GUARD.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300749

$$

VB

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KLBF [311442]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 311442
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
942 AM CDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 ENE BRULE 41.11N 101.83W
07/31/2013 M1.20 INCH KEITH NE COCORAHS

24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL ENDING AT 700 AM.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 12 WSW ANSELMO 41.55N 100.08W
07/31/2013 M1.20 INCH CUSTER NE COCORAHS

24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL ENDING AT 700 AM.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 S GRANT 40.80N 101.73W
07/31/2013 M1.24 INCH PERKINS NE COCORAHS

24 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNT ENDING AT 700 AM.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 7 SE CURTIS 40.56N 100.42W
07/31/2013 M1.31 INCH FRONTIER NE COCORAHS

24 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNT ENDING AT 700 AM.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 12 N IMPERIAL 40.69N 101.64W
07/31/2013 M1.55 INCH CHASE NE COCORAHS

24 HOUR RAINFALL REPORT ENDING AT 700 AM.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 N GRANT 40.89N 101.73W
07/31/2013 M1.61 INCH PERKINS NE COCORAHS

24 HOUR RAINFALL REPORT ENDING AT 700 AM.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 11 ENE TRYON 41.62N 100.75W
07/31/2013 M1.75 INCH MCPHERSON NE COCORAHS

24 HOUR RAINFALL REPORT ENDING AT 700 AM.


&&

$$

CARMEL

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KSGX [311430]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 311430
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
729 AM PDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 AM HIGH SURF 3 S SAN CLEMENTE 33.40N 117.61W
07/31/2013 PZZ655 CA PUBLIC

SURFLINE REPORTING SURF REACHING HEIGHTS TO 7 FEET AT
LOWER TESTLES AT 615 AM PDT.


&&

$$

JTHOMAS

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KLBF [311349]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 311349
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
849 AM CDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN MULLEN 42.04N 101.04W
07/31/2013 M1.58 INCH HOOKER NE CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL ENDING AT 700 AM.


&&

$$

CARMEL

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KILX [311343]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KILX 311343
LSRILX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
843 AM CDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 AM HEAVY RAIN WATSON 39.03N 88.57W
07/31/2013 M1.30 INCH EFFINGHAM IL COCORAHS

24-HOUR RAINFALL.

0500 AM HEAVY RAIN WATSON 39.03N 88.57W
07/31/2013 M1.30 INCH EFFINGHAM IL MESONET

24-HOUR RAINFALL...SWOP REPORT.

0530 AM HEAVY RAIN BEARDSTOWN 40.01N 90.43W
07/31/2013 M1.05 INCH CASS IL CO-OP OBSERVER

24-HOUR RAINFALL.

0530 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 E JACKSONVILLE 39.73N 90.20W
07/31/2013 M1.03 INCH MORGAN IL CO-OP OBSERVER

24-HOUR RAINFALL.

0600 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 S OLNEY 38.70N 88.09W
07/31/2013 M1.04 INCH RICHLAND IL CO-OP OBSERVER

24-HOUR RAINFALL.

0630 AM HEAVY RAIN FLORA 38.67N 88.48W
07/31/2013 M1.30 INCH CLAY IL CO-OP OBSERVER

24-HOUR RAINFALL.

0645 AM HEAVY RAIN WINCHESTER 39.63N 90.46W
07/31/2013 M1.42 INCH SCOTT IL CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SE EFFINGHAM 39.11N 88.54W
07/31/2013 M1.07 INCH EFFINGHAM IL CO-OP OBSERVER

24-HOUR RAINFALL.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN RUSHVILLE 40.12N 90.57W
07/31/2013 M1.29 INCH SCHUYLER IL MESONET

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL...SWOP REPORT

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN JACKSONVILLE 39.73N 90.23W
07/31/2013 M1.00 INCH MORGAN IL CO-OP OBSERVER

24-HOUR RAINFALL.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN FLORA 38.67N 88.48W
07/31/2013 M1.42 INCH CLAY IL MESONET

24-HOUR RAINFALL...SWOP REPORT.


&&

$$

LAUFENBERG

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KILX [311342]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KILX 311342
LSRILX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
842 AM CDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 AM HEAVY RAIN WATSON 39.03N 88.57W
07/31/2013 M1.30 INCH EFFINGHAM IL COCORAHS

24-HOUR RAINFALL.

0600 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 S OLNEY 38.70N 88.09W
07/31/2013 M1.04 INCH RICHLAND IL CO-OP OBSERVER

24-HOUR RAINFALL.

0630 AM HEAVY RAIN FLORA 38.67N 88.48W
07/31/2013 M1.30 INCH CLAY IL CO-OP OBSERVER

24-HOUR RAINFALL.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SE EFFINGHAM 39.11N 88.54W
07/31/2013 M1.07 INCH EFFINGHAM IL CO-OP OBSERVER

24-HOUR RAINFALL.


&&

$$

LAUFENBERG

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KLBF [311337]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 311337
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
837 AM CDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 NE GRANT 40.89N 101.67W
07/31/2013 M2.08 INCH PERKINS NE COCORAHS

24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL ENDING AT 700 AM.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 W CURTIS 40.63N 100.53W
07/31/2013 M1.89 INCH FRONTIER NE COCORAHS

24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL ENDING AT 700 AM.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 8 SW MADRID 40.77N 101.65W
07/31/2013 M1.88 INCH PERKINS NE COCORAHS

24 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNT ENDING AT 700 AM.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 NE NORTH PLATTE 41.19N 100.69W
07/31/2013 M1.36 INCH LINCOLN NE COCORAHS

24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL ENDING AT 700 AM.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 17 NNW WAUNETA 40.64N 101.50W
07/31/2013 M1.20 INCH CHASE NE COCORAHS

24 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNT ENDING AT 700 AM.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 8 WSW CALLAWAY 41.25N 100.06W
07/31/2013 M1.46 INCH CUSTER NE CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL ENDING AT 700 AM.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN VALENTINE 42.87N 100.55W
07/31/2013 M2.19 INCH CHERRY NE ASOS

24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL AT MILLER FIELD IN VALENTINE
ENDING AT 700 AM.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 ENE NORTH PLATTE 41.15N 100.72W
07/31/2013 M0.85 INCH LINCOLN NE ASOS

24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL AT LEE BIRD FIELD IN NORTH PLATTE
ENDING AT 700 AM.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN AINSWORTH 42.55N 99.86W
07/31/2013 M1.58 INCH BROWN NE AWOS

24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL ENDING AT 700 AM AT THE AINSWORTH
AIRPORT.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN OGALLALA 41.13N 101.72W
07/31/2013 M0.91 INCH KEITH NE AWOS

24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL ENDING AT 700 AM FOR THE OGALLALA
AIRPORT.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 N RINGGOLD 41.53N 100.77W
07/31/2013 M2.40 INCH MCPHERSON NE PUBLIC

24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL ENDING AT 700 AM.


&&

$$

CARMEL

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KMOB [311336]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMOB 311336
LSRMOB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
836 AM CDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0825 AM WATER SPOUT 1 SW BON SECOUR 30.30N 87.75W
07/31/2013 BALDWIN AL EMERGENCY MNGR

WEAK WATERSPOUT REPORTED TO THE EMA. NO DAMAGE REPORTED.


&&

$$

10

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KLBF [311324]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KLBF 311324
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
824 AM CDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 7 N NORTH PLATTE 41.23N 100.77W
07/31/2013 M1.90 INCH LINCOLN NE PUBLIC

1.9 INCHES OF RAIN FELL WITH THE STORMS OVERNIGHT.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 35 S VALENTINE 42.37N 100.55W
07/31/2013 M1.44 INCH CHERRY NE PUBLIC

1.44 INCHES OF RAIN FELL WITH OVERNIGHT STORMS.


&&

$$

JGOMEZ

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KLBF [311322]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 311322
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
822 AM CDT WED JUL 31 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 9 N NORTH PLATTE 41.26N 100.77W
07/31/2013 M1.90 INCH LINCOLN NE PUBLIC

1.9 INCHES OF RAIN FELL WITH THE STORMS OVERNIGHT.


&&

$$

JGOMEZ

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